Westhead: Shapiro Told Blue Jays Payroll To Be $140MM+

[Laika]

Also you would have to replace Tulo with a SS who is going to provide similar value and there really aren't any available.

 

You'd probably replace him with Goins and then spend the money on a whack of pitching depth for 2016

[burlingtonbandit]

You'd probably replace him with Goins and then spend the money on a whack of pitching depth for 2016

 

ugh gross. Goins is still a s***** hitter and if next season he doesn't hit (likely the case) then you are kind of screwed without any other options at SS. I think he's good depth as a backup middle infielder but you are playing with fire if you move Tulo.

 

I would hope Shapiro realizes this and keeps Tulo.

[Candy Maldonado]

Should Izturis' 1 million buyout be included in that?

[ElNik2013]

Let's compare what Shapiro is inheriting vs his predecessor:

 

C. Russell Martin vs ??

1B. EE/Colabello/Smoak vs ??

2B. Devon Travis vs Aaron Hill.

3B. Josh Donaldson vs ??

SS. Troy Tulowitzki vs ??

LF. Ben Revere/Michael Saunders/Dalton Pompey vs ??

CF. Kevin Pillar vs Vernon Wells.

RF. Joey Bats vs Jose Bautista.

SP1. Marcus Stroman vs Roy Halladay on his way out.

SP2. RA Dickey vs Shawn Marcum.

SP3. Drew Hutchison vs ??

SP4. ?? vs ??

SP5. ?? vs ??

[burlingtonbandit]

Let's compare what Shapiro is inheriting vs his predecessor:

 

C. Russell Martin vs ??

1B. EE/Colabello/Smoak vs ??

2B. Devon Travis vs Aaron Hill.

3B. Josh Donaldson vs ??

SS. Troy Tulowitzki vs ??

LF. Ben Revere/Michael Saunders/Dalton Pompey vs ??

CF. Kevin Pillar vs Vernon Wells.

RF. Joey Bats vs Jose Bautista.

SP1. Marcus Stroman vs Roy Halladay on his way out.

SP2. RA Dickey vs Shawn Marcum.

SP3. Drew Hutchison vs ??

SP4. ?? vs ??

SP5. ?? vs ??

 

I think its clear Shapiro is inheriting a much better team and much better organization than AA did. Its interesting because most times when a president/gm is hired they are starting from scratch but in this case the blue jays are a WS contender right now.

[baubau]

Along with reloading a farm system twice in 5 years.

 

You realize only AA is gone so far and the scouts that actually went to see the players from the draft play are still here right? I mean if this was hockey I could give AA credit for walking up to the podium and announcing who he drafted but nope, can't even give him that credit.

 

For what and to which team? Tiny market, value could be minimal to a lot of teams.

 

For Nationals for Rendon. They need a shortstop after Desmond leaves! /ignores the fact they have Turner/

 

All kidding aside not sure who is out there to replace Tulo as SS. Despite the decent year he had you certainly don't bank on Goins taking the reins at SS. Maybe Asdrubal Cabrera on a short term contract and trade Tulo retaining some salary for a pitcher.

 

If Shapiro is apparently allowed to bring 2 of his people with him....I wonder if that could include Brantley

 

Where did you hear this? Not the Brantley part, I know that is BS, but the "allowed" bringing 2 of his people.

[burlingtonbandit]

 

All kidding aside not sure who is out there to replace Tulo as SS. Despite the decent year he had you certainly don't bank on Goins taking the reins at SS. Maybe Asdrubal Cabrera on a short term contract and trade Tulo retaining some salary for a pitcher.

 

 

Can't see that making the team any better. You lose 2 wins at SS, so you likely need to get a 3.5 Win pitcher to justify the cost just for next season and those type of pitchers cost a ton of money.

[BTS]

What teams have a need at short and would feasibly be willing to pay Tulo $100M? Detroit, and maybe the White Sox?

[ElNik2013]

You realize only AA is gone so far and the scouts that actually went to see the players from the draft play are still here right? I mean if this was hockey I could give AA credit for walking up to the podium and announcing who he drafted but nope, can't even give him that credit.

 

 

 

I'm not asking you to give him credit, you can do as you please. It's ok to disagree. Fair or not, it's the way it works. If the team he GM'ed for 6 years had had a bad farm system for most of his tenure, he'd be blamed for it.

 

Anyway...

[Laika]

ugh gross. Goins is still a s***** hitter and if next season he doesn't hit (likely the case) then you are kind of screwed without any other options at SS. I think he's good depth as a backup middle infielder but you are playing with fire if you move Tulo.

 

I would hope Shapiro realizes this and keeps Tulo.

 

How big is the skill gap between Ryan Goins and Didi Gregorius?

 

I like Goins more as a starting SS than as a starting 2B. I'll say that much. Obviously in an ideal world he's a backup MIF.

[Laika]

What teams have a need at short and would feasibly be willing to pay Tulo $100M? Detroit, and maybe the White Sox?

 

White Sox have Tim Anderson. Also, Jose Iglesias might not suck.

 

The only two things that popped into my head were:

 

Angels with Aybar coming back

Rangers - some convoluted trade involving Tulo and Andrus, where Texas eats some amount of Andrus' contract and/or includes prospects.

[burlingtonbandit]

How big is the skill gap between Ryan Goins and Didi Gregorius?

 

I like Goins more as a starting SS than as a starting 2B. I'll say that much. Obviously in an ideal world he's a backup MIF.

 

I'm not the biggest projections guy but Tulo is projected to be more than a 3 win Upgrade over Goins. Even if its closer to 2 than 3 wins I can't see the team getting a SP that would justify the downgrade at SS. Also very risky with Travis's injury history and Goins who hasn't proven he can hit at a reasonable level.

[Laika]

Well you wouldn't trade Tulo and then leave your MIF depth chart as Goins-Travis... clearly step 2 would be to go out and add depth.

[burlingtonbandit]

Well you wouldn't trade Tulo and then leave your MIF depth chart as Goins-Travis... clearly step 2 would be to go out and add depth.

 

Sure but say you add Cliff Pennington. Any combination of Goins-Pennington at SS is probably going to look bad. I just don't see how trading Tulo makes the blue jays better this season.

[ElNik2013]

Sure but say you add Cliff Pennington. Any combination of Goins-Pennington at SS is probably going to look bad. I just don't see how trading Tulo makes the blue jays better this season.

 

 

 

Why not look long-term though? If you have a chance to free up money for 2016-18, you do it.

[baubau]

Can't see that making the team any better. You lose 2 wins at SS, so you likely need to get a 3.5 Win pitcher to justify the cost just for next season and those type of pitchers cost a ton of money.

 

Mhm. Fair enough. But if this team trades Tulo you're likely going to see a drop in WAR for SS position regardless, unless they somehow get Lindor or Carrera. The hope is the player returning and/or signed makes up for it in the other positions.

 

What teams have a need at short and would feasibly be willing to pay Tulo $100M? Detroit, and maybe the White Sox?

 

Could also see SD. I know s***ing on AJ is a dead horse but they could use a SS.

 

White Sox have Tim Anderson. Also, Jose Iglesias might not suck.

 

The only two things that popped into my head were:

 

Angels with Aybar coming back

Rangers - some convoluted trade involving Tulo and Andrus, where Texas eats some amount of Andrus' contract and/or includes prospects.

 

I would love to see the overreaction on a Andrus trade to the Jays.

[BTS]

Sure but say you add Cliff Pennington. Any combination of Goins-Pennington at SS is probably going to look bad. I just don't see how trading Tulo makes the blue jays better this season.

 

Trading Tulo wouldn't be about making the Jays better this season. It would likely be a calculated hit to the 2016 team to eliminate the risk of an albatross contract years down the road.

[Smokey]

Shapiro will have to work his magic to turn this expensive train wreck around. Good thing is, he's used to working with tight budgets in Cleveland for many years.

 

At the end of the day, AA left team in good shape both on field and business wise so Shapiro has a lot to work with.

 

Tell me more...

[thatoneguy]

Shapiro's Indians have inked some guys to pretty great contracts.

 

Carrasco: 4 yrs/$22M (15-18) & 19-20 team option

Kluber: 5 yrs/$38.5M (15-19) & 20-21 team option

Brantley: 4 yrs/$25M (14-17) & 18 team option

Kipnis: 6 yrs/$52.5M (14-19) & 20 team option

Gomes: 6 yrs/$23M (14-19) & 20-21 team option

 

Some of those are crazy, lol

 

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lu2z2llMhD1qgt8s1.gif

 

Mhm. Fair enough. But if this team trades Tulo you're likely going to see a drop in WAR for SS position regardless, unless they somehow get Lindor or Carrera. The hope is the player returning and/or signed makes up for it in the other positions.

 

Damn I hope Zeke can put up 6 WAR there.

[ElNik2013]

Tell me more...

 

 

LOL, just messing around with those over-reacting to this whole thing one way or the other.

 

In all seriousness, team is in good shape and in good hands. Time to move forward. Good luck to AA wherever he ends up, if he ends up anywhere. He's definitely taking a risk. If Shapiro or any decent team president was his boss at the time of the Mets trade, he would've been fired on the spot, but anyway...

[Laika]

Sure but say you add Cliff Pennington. Any combination of Goins-Pennington at SS is probably going to look bad. I just don't see how trading Tulo makes the blue jays better this season.

 

Well then you're not trying hard enough.

 

Step 1 - collect underpants

Step 2 - ?????

Step 3 - profit!

 

wait, I mean...

 

1) replace ~3.5 WAR Tulowitzki with ~1.5 WAR Goins and friends.

2) spend newfound $20M on at least 2.0 WAR worth of pitching

4) profit!

(specific numbers don't matter)

[burlingtonbandit]

Trading Tulo wouldn't be about making the Jays better this season. It would likely be a calculated hit to the 2016 team to eliminate the risk of an albatross contract years down the road.

 

Yeah but I'm not sure you want to take a calculated hit this season. Jays have the best shot to win the division this year, I think we could both agree. Do you want to risk that to make the team a little better down the road, when there is no guarantee the Jays will be as close to winning the division? Red Sox look like they will be perennial contenders from 2016 onwards.

 

I think you are overestimating how bad Tulo's contract is. 20 million in 2019+ is not an albatross. If payroll is 200 million by then, that is the same as 12-13 million is this year.

[burlingtonbandit]

Well then you're not trying hard enough.

 

Step 1 - collect underpants

Step 2 - ?????

Step 3 - profit!

 

wait, I mean...

 

1) replace ~3.5 WAR Tulowitzki with ~1.5 WAR Goins and friends.

2) spend newfound $20M on at least 2.0 WAR worth of pitching

4) profit!

(specific numbers don't matter)

 

Well whoever you sign as depth probably costs 3-5 millon. I'm aware of the process but I don't believe in Goins as a starter. Also to get that 3.5 win pitcher you are probably paying more than Tulo's deal and then comes with the risk of paying that type of money on pitching.

 

The downgrade in the lineup from Tulo to Goins also likely costs more than 2 wins since you would be taking away extra ABs from elite players like Donaldson, Bautista etc at the top of the lineup.

[Stangstag]

What teams have a need at short and would feasibly be willing to pay Tulo $100M? Detroit, and maybe the White Sox?

 

Detroit, White sox, Seattle, Angels, Mets, Yanks, maybe Twins... Lots lf teams would probably be willing to trade for Tulo.

 

That being said, I'd rather just keep him for now. He's still elite and his value is at an all-time low.

[BTS]

Detroit, White sox, Seattle, Angels, Mets, Yanks, maybe Twins... Lots lf teams would probably be willing to trade for Tulo.

 

That being said, I'd rather just keep him for now. He's still elite and his value is at an all-time low.

 

I dunno.

 

Seattle has Miller and Marte

Mets have Flores

Yanks have Gregorius

Twins are poor

[Jimcanuck]

Detroit, White sox, Seattle, Angels, Mets, Yanks, maybe Twins... Lots lf teams would probably be willing to trade for Tulo.

 

That being said, I'd rather just keep him for now. He's still elite and his value is at an all-time low.

 

Tulo doesn't have much value given age/contract. Moving him would be little more than a salary dump - to reallocate the salary elsewhere. Cannot expect much back.

[burlingtonbandit]

Tulo doesn't have much value given age/contract. Moving him would be little more than a salary dump - to reallocate the salary elsewhere. Cannot expect much back.

 

What an awful post.

[BTS]

What an awful post.

 

It's true.

[ElNik2013]

If Shapiro is looking to move Tulowitzki, he will probably bet on him bouncing back from the 2.5 fWAR he put up last year and closer to the 5 fWAR he pusted in each of 2013 and 2014.

[burlingtonbandit]

It's true.

 

Obviously.. JimCanuck is a troll.