THANOS Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Shapiro, contrary to what many want to believe, is inheriting what will look like a mess after 2016. Bautista and Edwin will be free agents after next season, and the team will be paying $60M to Martin and $80M to Tulo in their mid-30's over the next 3-4 years. The farm system, at least the upper minors portion, is bone dry other than Pompey. AA might have bounced on purpose. He gets all the accolades for ending the playoff drought and doesn't have to deal with the consequences of his short-term decision making. That's one smart fat man. You're ignoring that AA and his team have replenished the farm twice before this, from far worse positions, mind you. Who's to say that AA wouldn't sell high on Cola, Revere, and Sanchez and replenish some of the farm as well as give us a great 2016 draft haul to get the system right back to a top 5 system again? Greene and Alford could be here by 2017 as well.
glory Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 You should really just stop following the team if you constantly think everything is going to crash and burn all of the time like this. I'm not a casual fan. I'm in this for the long run. I want to see a consistent winner. AA went for the short-term fix. Shapiro is probably taking over at the right time because at least it gives him a year to see if he can retool a bit to get the team back on the right track. However, to suggest that I think it's going to crash and burn is ridiculous. I've seen a lot of baseball in my life. Teams built this way have a short shelf-life. That's just reality. I'm not going to pretend to wear a blind fold because of one entertaining season. I want them to produce many of these types of seasons, and I believe Shapiro is far more likely to produce them than Anthopoulos.
glory Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 It's only a mess if they re-sign Jose and EE. Tulo might become a bad contract, but martin? C'mon I didn't hear anyone complaining when he signed Martin. It's not a mess in terms of flexibility, it's a mess in terms of trying to keep them as a 90 win team beyond 2016. If Bautista and EE leave, then it will be damn difficult to replace them. If they re-sign both, then it's getting into Ruben Amaro territory of keeping guys way too long and paying them for past performance. I'm honestly not sure what the "fix" is to keep this team competitive beyond 2016, but let's be real here, AA built a very small window. Not impossible to keep it going, but it will be very hard.
candymartinez Verified Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 He was talking about AA's entire tenure as the Jays GM. Borderline .500 team. You're overanalyzing this. The team had at best a .500 record with him at GM...and then they caught lightning in a bottle for that last two months of the season...that brings us to today. That's pretty much it. No he wasn't. I give up. Tell your old man to stick to hockey.
glory Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 You're ignoring that AA and his team have replenished the farm twice before this, from far worse positions, mind you. Who's to say that AA wouldn't sell high on Cola, Revere, and Sanchez and replenish some of the farm as well as give us a great 2016 draft haul to get the system right back to a top 5 system again? Greene and Alford could be here by 2017 as well. AA replenished the system the first time because he (smartly) took advantage of the system by hoarding draft picks. It worked. He can't do the same thing now because the new CBA greatly restricts that type of team building. Replenishing the system in 2010 was a lot easier than it will be now. I think some of the guys in the lower minors will eventually be players for this team. However, that might take many years, and we're talking about keeping the team competitive short-term. It's going to be difficult.
Dr Negative Verified Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Shapiro, contrary to what many want to believe, is inheriting what will look like a mess after 2016. Bautista and Edwin will be free agents after next season, and the team will be paying $60M to Martin and $80M to Tulo in their mid-30's over the next 3-4 years. The farm system, at least the upper minors portion, is bone dry other than Pompey. AA might have bounced on purpose. He gets all the accolades for ending the playoff drought and doesn't have to deal with the consequences of his short-term decision making. That's one smart fat man. imo both those contracts will likely be tradeable after 2016 if needed. Tulo at 20 million per year even at 3B is a pretty good deal.
AdamGreenwood Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 "Who's to say that AA wouldn't sell high on Cola, Revere, and Sanchez and replenish some of the farm" That should bring in quite the haul.
BigCecil Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 imo both those contracts will likely be tradeable after 2016 if needed. Tulo at 20 million per year even at 3B is a pretty good deal. The Tulo contract is a better asset than the Reyes contract for sure. The issue is what we gave up over the swap of those two players vs what we might get back for Tulo.
THANOS Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 "Who's to say that AA wouldn't sell high on Cola, Revere, and Sanchez and replenish some of the farm" That should bring in quite the haul. It's possible, not every org is Saber friendly yet.
Dr Negative Verified Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 The Tulo contract is a better asset than the Reyes contract for sure. The issue is what we gave up over the swap of those two players vs what we might get back for Tulo. I think that depends on when you trade Tulo if you do. I do that that he will have at least one big season in the next few years. Matt Holliday needed half a season to adjust to life outside of Colorado as well.
Stangstag Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 You're ignoring that AA and his team have replenished the farm twice before this, from far worse positions, mind you. Who's to say that AA wouldn't sell high on Cola, Revere, and Sanchez and replenish some of the farm as well as give us a great 2016 draft haul to get the system right back to a top 5 system again? Greene and Alford could be here by 2017 as well. When has AA ever sold high on anyone?
BigCecil Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I think that depends on when you trade Tulo if you do. I do that that he will have at least one big season in the next few years. Matt Holliday needed half a season to adjust to life outside of Colorado as well. Could be lots of factors/scenarios. Could be 2017 and we are out of it and a contending teams SS goes down that needs one badly.....and is prepared to pay for Tulo. Who knows.
THANOS Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 When has AA ever sold high on anyone? Roy Halladay, Napoli (didn't work out obviously), Gonzalez (former Marlin), off the top of my head.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Gonzalez is the only guy who fits that description.
Stangstag Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I guarantee youu AA wanted to re-sign both Edwin and Bautista. This team would have been beyond f***ed if he had stayed.
saskjayfan Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Shapiro, contrary to what many want to believe, is inheriting what will look like a mess after 2016. Bautista and Edwin will be free agents after next season, and the team will be paying $60M to Martin and $80M to Tulo in their mid-30's over the next 3-4 years. The farm system, at least the upper minors portion, is bone dry other than Pompey. AA might have bounced on purpose. He gets all the accolades for ending the playoff drought and doesn't have to deal with the consequences of his short-term decision making. That's one smart fat man. Are you drunk Tulo will be 31 at the end of 2016 What are you 12? How is 31 mid thirties. Martin is a warrior....Stroman isn't a free agent until 2021...he's solid top of the rotation guy. Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Travis, Goins, Pompey all 2021 or later free agents. They already have premium young talent playing with the team. They still have pentecost, alford, guererro and a whole host of young prospects that will become more known in time. This team has the AL league MVP until 2018. The team has solid mlb players like Saunders, Collabello, Smoak and Revere for a couple years. The increased revenues should give you plenty of funds to sign players in 2015 and beyond. There are drafts each year to gap the talent together. This team is a long ways from being in dire straights after 2016 when all you have is 2 players under contract(especially when those players are the calibre they are) and you have a top of the rotation guy in stroman to go along with an MVP in Donaldson.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Are you drunk Tulo will be 31 at the end of 2016 What are you 12? How is 31 mid thirties. Martin is a warrior....Stroman isn't a free agent until 2021...he's solid top of the rotation guy. Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, Travis, Goins, Pompey all 2021 or later free agents. They already have premium young talent playing with the team. They still have pentecost, alford, guererro and a whole host of young prospects that will become more known in time. This team has the AL league MVP until 2018. The team has solid mlb players like Saunders, Collabello, Smoak and Revere for a couple years. The increased revenues should give you plenty of funds to sign players in 2015 and beyond. There are drafts each year to gap the talent together. This team is a long ways from being in dire straights after 2016 when all you have is 2 players under contract(especially when those players are the calibre they are) and you have a top of the rotation guy in stroman to go along with an MVP in Donaldson.
thatoneguy Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Finding myself in a position where saskjaysfan agrees with me is making me rethink my earlier post...
saskjayfan Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Roy Halladay, Napoli (didn't work out obviously), Gonzalez (former Marlin), off the top of my head. shaun marcum
TilsonBritoFan Verified Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I guarantee youu AA wanted to re-sign both Edwin and Bautista. This team would have been beyond f***ed if he had stayed. Derp
THANOS Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Gonzalez is the only guy who fits that description. Halladay was definitely a sell-high transaction, but, upon review, you're right about Napoli, I didn't know his previous years were as good as his 2010.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Finding myself in a position where saskjaysfan agrees with me is making me rethink my earlier post... Yes, you really should.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Halladay was definitely a sell-high transaction, but, upon review, you're right about Napoli, I didn't know his previous years were as good as his 2010. Halladay was not a sell high. He was the best pitcher in baseball at the time and had been for years. After the trade, he got even better.
thatoneguy Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Yes, you really should. I still maintain that glory tends to debbie more than just about anyone else here, though. Often needlessly.
THANOS Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 shaun marcum Thank you, I don't know how I forgot that. JA Happ would be another.
THANOS Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Halladay was not a sell high. He was the best pitcher in baseball at the time and had been for years. After the trade, he got even better. Yes but he was still sold at a high in hindsight. You're either sold on a high or a low, and that certainly wasn't a down year for him.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I still maintain that glory tends to debbie more than just about anyone else here, though. Often needlessly. I don't find his comments here miss the mark much, if at all, though. What AA was doing was very unsustainable. People should be very excited to have Mark Shapiro with a workable budget and I find that they are not to be saddening.
Boxcar Old-Timey Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Yes but he was still sold at a high in hindsight. You're either sold on a high or a low, and that certainly wasn't a down year for him. The concept of selling high is that a player has an unexpected spike in performance and you try to get another GM to buy into it. This would be like trading Lawrie after his first partial season where people were comparing him and Mike Trout. Trading a guy who has been consistently good most of his career is very different. I feel like this should not need an explanation and it's kind of a pointless thing anyway.
BTS Community Moderator Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 Halladay was definitely a sell-high transaction, but, upon review, you're right about Napoli, I didn't know his previous years were as good as his 2010. I think there's a distinction between selling high and just trading a good player because you know he'll be hitting free agency soon.
Slugger Verified Member Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 AA put together the best Jays team we've seen in our lives, and Rogers lets him go. This is beyond stupidity. I think Shapiro is awesome, but at the end of the day, they should have just let AA run the baseball and Shapiro run building/other things. Our team got a lot weaker today, philosophies are bound to change... some good, some bad. I had a really comfortable year watching AA hit on pretty much every move he made. GL to Shaipro and Rogers to try and duplicate that. Rogers didn't "let him go" you idiot. They offered him a huge 5YR deal and he walked away from it. It's real convenient to just create a common enemy so it's easier for you to grasp.
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