2015 Trade Deadline Targets Thread.

[SAAviour]

Price fits in so well, fans are loving him, he wants to be here...as I said before, Hamels can f*** Off and Suck My Cock!

 

Think about next year next year, for now David Price is exactly what we need.

[RealAccountant]

Price fits in so well, fans are loving him, he wants to be here...as I said before, Hamels can f*** Off and Suck My Cock!

 

Think about next year next year, for now David Price is exactly what we need.

 

We can win a WS this year

[BigCecil]

Bump. Reading back though this. Glad we got Price in hindsight.

 

Both would have taken Norris to get. Hamels had control but is aging and gave us less options financially next season.

 

Hamels is a better asset though, especially when you consider that the Blue Jays have trouble signing pitchers. I still think it's a shame that he wasn't willing to come to Toronto because I thought that was a great fit.

 

Fair point. We have a hard time signing FAs or getting guys to lift veto to come. The risk on his remaining 70mm is that he can maintain performance similar to his norms through 34. Seems like he has already been around forever for some reason. I wanted him due to control but Im good with Price as a rental.

[BigCecil]

Except now to sign Price you are talking about 7yrs/200m+ , and the Blue Jays need starters next year. So less options financially, yes. But also filling an inevitable need that will cost way more to sign next year to fill the #1 or #2 spot.

 

Yes, but he wasn't coming here with veto and Price wont sign either.

 

We are going to have to sign mid rotation option(s) that will take 5 years or less and hope that Stro is a front end guy.

[Mikeleelop]

Yes, but he wasn't coming here with veto and Price wont sign either.

 

We are going to have to sign mid rotation option(s) that will take 5 years or less and hope that Stro is a front end guy.

 

unless new president and GM have a different policy and go after a top of the line guy with a 6+ year contract

[pickoff22]

Price wont sign either.

 

 

I don't believe that and I don't think that's just the fan in me coming through. With an offer that is as competitive as others when it comes to financial terms I see no reason why he wouldn't strongly consider signing here. Winning changes everything as does having a taste of what it's like to pitch here in front of our fans. The fact he's already labelled his first start here as the best atmosphere he's ever pitched in is huge. Are there some FAs that would pass on Toronto simply because of ignorance of what it's like to actually play here? Sure, but Price I doubt would be one of them.

[BigCecil]

I don't believe that and I don't think that's just the fan in me coming through. With an offer that is as competitive as others when it comes to financial terms I see no reason why he wouldn't strongly consider signing here. Winning changes everything as does having a taste of what it's like to pitch here in front of our fans. The fact he's already labelled his first start here as the best atmosphere he's ever pitched in is huge. Are there some FAs that would pass on Toronto simply because of ignorance of what it's like to actually play here? Sure, but Price I doubt would be one of them.

 

Maybe. doubt it. We shall see. Also I don't think a massive long term expensive deal for a 29 year old arm is in our best long term interest.

 

Having said that we have traded away most of our future arm options so we will need to be active in FA market. The low dollar is not a help.

[pickoff22]

If the Blue Jays give Price $30MM a year, they'll be paying $90MM in 2018 for just four players (Price, Tulo, Martin, Donaldson). They absolutely cannot afford to do that.

 

We have no clue what they can or can't afford. I would argue they absolutely can afford to do so, in the sense that their revenue from the Jays would still outpace salaries even if they were paying luxury tax. With the fact that Rogers owns the TV rights which are exploding in terms of costs, I think it's pretty clear that they could. It's a question of whether they are willing to.

[Dick_Pole]

If the Blue Jays give Price $30MM a year, they'll be paying $90MM in 2018 for just four players (Price, Tulo, Martin, Donaldson). They absolutely cannot afford to do that.

 

That's 2018's problem. And by "they" meaning Rogers, can afford it. Whether they want to afford it is another issue. If this baseball club wins a World Series and packs houses every night, who knows what the impact will be.

[pickoff22]

If all these teams would be more profitable with higher payrolls, why are they spending what they currently are? Rogers is likely well aware of the payroll/revenue relationship and is spending in an appropriate range (which is a considerable range). Pumping payroll up to $150MM+ doesn't make sense for them.

 

It probably makes perfect sense.

 

Hard to know the payroll/revenue relationship when you haven't played meaningful September baseball for so long. For a city like Toronto it's a winning/revenue relationship that exists, and an increased payroll is positively correlated to better results. This year might be the first year that truly gives them a glimpse of what increased attendance and viewership actually provides them with when it comes to increased revenue.

 

Other teams are limited in terms of the population and size of the market. Completely different ball game (pun intended) when your market is an entire country. The larger market teams are, for the most part, spending north of 150 million.

 

They also can easily explore the idea of increasing ticket prices. Some fans would moan, but it wouldn't stop them from selling out if they were winning. As a season ticket holder, I pay $57 a seat for premium dugout seats. That's a bargain. I would pay more and I'm sure others would as well if the money is being put back into the team. The Toronto market can easily digest a price increase as long as the product on the field is competitive. Leafs and raptors are perfect examples of that. Create dynamic ticket pricing if you want so there's a greater difference between weekend and weekday games. They have plenty of room to maximize ticket revenue.

[reedjohnsonfan]

If all these teams would be more profitable with higher payrolls, why are they spending what they currently are? Rogers is likely well aware of the payroll/revenue relationship and is spending in an appropriate range (which is a considerable range). Pumping payroll up to $150MM+ doesn't make sense for them.

 

Nah, I doubt they know that much. A lot of it depends on wins, marketing, economy, fan perception, etc that they (at best IMHO) have some general idea as to what they should be spending. Saying "pumping payroll up to $150MM+ doesn't make sense for them" is blindly giving them credit for knowing what they are doing.

[pickoff22]

They're already using profit-maximizing ticket prices. With the payroll/revenue comment, I meant that payrolls haven't correlated that well to wins in recent seasons across baseball. Contending in 2016+ isn't as simple as giving AA a bigger budget. Making smart decisions with the first $120MM is much more important. We don't know if revenues will go up significant with more winning, either. We and Rogers are both still waiting on the evidence.

 

We're "waiting" for evidence is a lot different than saying we absolutely can't afford it. Agreed that boosting payroll isn't a guarantee for success. But it certainly will lead to increased season ticket subscriptions if you make splashy offseason moves.

 

And with all due respect, they are absolutely not maximizing ticket profits. If they were, the secondary market prices for tickets wouldn't be so high, not only post-trade deadline but before. Weekend games, especially against better opponents, have sold for above face for many dates. Using dynamic pricing is a much better option then simply having "premium" and "non-premium" games. There should be more than 2 price points. Dynamic pricing for the raptors would actually account for the post-deadline hype and boost revenues. Keeps some money out of the ticket scalpers pockets and potentially encourages more subscriptions as there's more certainty in what you pay if you have seasons.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Hamels is a better asset though, especially when you consider that the Blue Jays have trouble signing pitchers. I still think it's a shame that he wasn't willing to come to Toronto because I thought that was a great fit.

 

I totally agree. And we may have had the time and resources to pick up a rental to add two starters to the mix, and displace erratic Hutchinson.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

unless new president and GM have a different policy and go after a top of the line guy with a 6+ year contract

 

I think Price might agree to a 6-year deal, honestly. If he enjoys his time in TO, and we do something in October, I think we have as much chance as any team to land him, unless Moneybags Dodgers decide to go batshit and offer him a 10-year deal for $300M or something. Which may happen if Greinke leaves.

[HERPDERP]

I absolutely do not want to resign Price. If I were forced to, I'd give him something like 5 years with a high AAV.

 

Price is pretty much a two pitch pitcher. His cutter and curveball are negligible.

 

His fastball is where he gets more of his value, but what happens a few years into his contract when he can no longer reach 97? What if his max is 92? You guys think he can still be effective there?

[Brenner]

I absolutely do not want to resign Price. If I were forced to, I'd give him something like 5 years with a high AAV.

 

Price is pretty much a two pitch pitcher. His cutter and curveball are negligible.

 

His fastball is where he gets more of his value, but what happens a few years into his contract when he can no longer reach 97? What if his max is 92? You guys think he can still be effective there?

 

Yes a 7 year deal is stupid, but it is what he will get. CC Sabathia situation.

[Masterbather]

I absolutely do not want to resign Price. If I were forced to, I'd give him something like 5 years with a high AAV.

 

Price is pretty much a two pitch pitcher. His cutter and curveball are negligible.

 

His fastball is where he gets more of his value, but what happens a few years into his contract when he can no longer reach 97? What if his max is 92? You guys think he can still be effective there?

 

That's my exact concern. He's not a finesse guy who can survive with a few less MPH. He does hit the armside bottom corner pretty consistently, so his command could help overcome some of the velocity loss, but he does rely on power. Even then, it's not like he sits in the upper 90's, he sits in the mid-90's, so even a couple of MPH loss on the fastball, and he's down to low 90's. I'd be very concerned about that.

[flafson]

I absolutely do not want to resign Price. If I were forced to, I'd give him something like 5 years with a high AAV.

 

Price is pretty much a two pitch pitcher. His cutter and curveball are negligible.

 

His fastball is where he gets more of his value, but what happens a few years into his contract when he can no longer reach 97? What if his max is 92? You guys think he can still be effective there?

 

You can always give him 5 years with some deferred money.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Yes a 7 year deal is stupid, but it is what he will get. CC Sabathia situation.

 

7-years is crazy, but a 6-year deal makes more sense, with the realization that the last couple will be like Dave Stieb's last couple of years.

[dineke]

7-years is crazy, but a 6-year deal makes more sense, with the realization that the last couple will be like Dave Stieb's last couple of years.

 

Why make a deal when you know the final third of it is going to be terrible?

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Why make a deal when you know the final third of it is going to be terrible?

 

I don't think final third and terrible are accurate. I'm hoping final fourth and above-replacement are doable. We sign a guy like Price because he will provide tons a fWAR while he is still in his halcyon period. And he's a big name that will, hopefully, help draw other big names. And, with Price, for at least 2-3 years you have that ace to rely one, AND he seems like a team guy, too.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Price gets to make the decision about where to sign, not the Blue Jays. It may be sensible for Toronto to offer him a five- or six-year deal, but it won't be accepted.

 

 

The velocity loss thing is true about every pitcher in their 30s (which is definitely a reason to be cautious about Price). He isn't really a candidate to be worse after losing velocity than the average pitcher.

 

Price will command > $200M probably. Which teams in MLB can afford that? The Jays can I think. But who else? The number is low, very low. And if he has fun here, and success, I think we have a shot. Assuming the FO even want him.

[Brownie19]

I absolutely do not want to resign Price. If I were forced to, I'd give him something like 5 years with a high AAV.

 

Price is pretty much a two pitch pitcher. His cutter and curveball are negligible.

 

His fastball is where he gets more of his value, but what happens a few years into his contract when he can no longer reach 97? What if his max is 92? You guys think he can still be effective there?

 

I'd counter that and argue that pitchers who rely on the fastball/change combo are less susceptible to injury than the guys who spin the ball a lot. If you look at pitch value, a guy like Hamels is a 1 pitch pitcher (change).

 

Will Price fall off a cliff when he eventually loses velocity (ala Verlander)? Maybe - but really - which aces do you project will continue their dominance into their mid 30's? It's a bit of a crap shoot IMO.

[Brownie19]

I don't think we have any chance of resigning Price unless we win the World Series; however I don't get you guys who say you wouldn't want to resign him (if we could). Our window is right now...it's the next 2-4 years. We have Bats, Tulo, Martin & Donaldson as elite players, we have E5, Travis and Pillar all as above average players and then we have all the young arms - Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Hutchison, etc. We have an opportunity over the next 4 years to write another amazing chapter in the history of the franchise. This is our 1992/93 - this IS our time. I'd do whatever I could get to Price re-signed because he'd be a HUGE part of it (esp. if MB retires). Personally, I think it's worth it even if he's a shell of his former self in years 5 - 7 of the deal.

[BigCecil]

I'd counter that and argue that pitchers who rely on the fastball/change combo are less susceptible to injury than the guys who spin the ball a lot. If you look at pitch value, a guy like Hamels is a 1 pitch pitcher (change).

 

Will Price fall off a cliff when he eventually loses velocity (ala Verlander)? Maybe - but really - which aces do you project will continue their dominance into their mid 30's? It's a bit of a crap shoot IMO.

 

Fair point. its always a crap shoot on any longer term deal. Just a question of risk assessment/tolerance and the future financial implications. Martin as a 37 year old catcher will be interesting. Im not in the try to sign Price camp.

 

I remember when AA gave Jose a 5 year deal after one breakthrough season. Lots wondered whether his magic leg kick would produce long term and it has.

[L54]

Toronto fans need to come to grips with the fact that Price is only here for the rest of the year. Enjoy it while you can!

 

Spending 30M/year on David Price would be an inefficient use of resources, and would not help sustain continued success the way many fans think it would. Hopefully he continues to dominate the rest of the regular season, giving us a chance to make the playoffs. That's what he was brought here for. He's not a long term fixture in the Blue Jays rotation.

[pickoff22]

Toronto fans need to come to grips with the fact that Price is only here for the rest of the year. Enjoy it while you can!

 

This is good advice. If somehow he stays then be happy at that stage. But for now just enjoy the feeling, it's still surreal watching him in the dugout let alone on the mound. I can't wait for Friday's game - the energy in the Rogers Centre is going to be insane.

[L54]

This is good advice. If somehow he stays then be happy at that stage. But for now just enjoy the feeling, it's still surreal watching him in the dugout let alone on the mound. I can't wait for Friday's game - the energy in the Rogers Centre is going to be insane.

 

Yup. It is truly exciting to have a guy like him on the mound every 5th day. Something we obviously haven't had since Halladay.

[Slade]

Depending on how far this team goes this year I would be willing to sign Price to a 7 year deal. Especially if we get Value early in the contract, as long as he gives us good production in the early years I don't think it would be too hard to off load that contract later.

[Brownie19]

Toronto fans need to come to grips with the fact that Price is only here for the rest of the year. Enjoy it while you can!

 

Spending 30M/year on David Price would be an inefficient use of resources, and would not help sustain continued success the way many fans think it would. Hopefully he continues to dominate the rest of the regular season, giving us a chance to make the playoffs. That's what he was brought here for. He's not a long term fixture in the Blue Jays rotation.

 

This is based on the assumption Roger's doesn't increase the budget in the following seasons. Given the MLB TV revenue that's coming in + gains from a winning team - it may not be far fetched to see them raise the budget. That's the beauty of baseball without a salary cap.