Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[Jimcanuck]

Some of it is these are the same guys that pumped Norris' tires and pronounced that Sanchez would be a disaster.

 

It sucks when things don't play out the way one vociferously and repeatedly predicted.

[Governator]

I think the dividing line on Sanchez is ridiculous. You got a group that are overly hard on him saying by end of year he's a replacement level player at best and others who pump his tires like he's an ace in the making.

 

I think what a lot of people forget is that he wasn't even suppose to be in the rotation this season and if you are dead set on laughing at Sanchez, making jokes about his competitive walks and so on, than go harp on AA for doing jackshit to fill the void after Stroman went down.

 

Live with it because at the end of the day they won't be taking Sanchez out of the rotation unless he fails hard and struggles for a few starts in a row showing horrible results, keeping in mind your advanced results and their single minded results are two different things. Did they take Romero out after he went like 8-1 to start his disastrous season even though everything pointed to utter failure? No... the same GM let him ride it out all year long and gave him all 32 starts. I wouldn't expect anything different unless Sanchez is struggling and Norris continues to succeed and lower his own walk rate in Buffalo. That or a trade scenario.

 

So stop harping on Sanchez and perhaps after he shows a good result we could at least say, "so that was promising start" by one of our top prospects instead of saying "Yea... BUT look at his 2012 numbers???". Just let it ride because this team isn't going to make a change and if he starts throwing more like this then really who gives a s*** anyway.

 

I'm also partially hypocritical in all this I'm sure but I know I wanted him to succeed and have always hated the pure negativity this board pushes on him.

[Boxcar]

Of course he didn't pitch well but if it's the bottom of the ninth and his team were winning then his TEAM won which is the aim of the game.

 

We are talking specifically about pitcher performance, not team performance. If you have bad players, more often than not the results will be bad too.

[CHRIS]

This organization has been a Bizarro Jeckyl/Hyde organization for a long time now.

 

Send Norris down citing peripherals but keep throwing Sanchez out there.

Gift Pompey a roster spot in CF, make no moves after Saunders goes down, give up on Pompey after 20 games.

 

Just a terrible job in general of filling out the last 3/4 spots of the 25 man roster.

[CHRIS]

For the record though, I'm fine with them continuing to throw Sanchez out there. Just wish they'd be more consistent with their messaging.

[ElNik2013]

This organization has been a Bizarro Jeckyl/Hyde organization for a long time now.

 

Send Norris down citing peripherals but keep throwing Sanchez out there.

Gift Pompey a roster spot in CF, make no moves after Saunders goes down, give up on Pompey after 20 games.

 

Just a terrible job in general of filling out the last 3/4 spots of the 25 man roster.

 

 

How did the team "gift" Pompey a roster spot in CF?

 

 

Also, has anyone actually looked at what the makeshift OF has given the team overall?

 

I'd be interested in finding out, but me too lazy/dumb to look them up. I doubt defense has been much of an issue this season.

[Yorkshire Blue Jay]

We are talking specifically about pitcher performance, not team performance. If you have bad players, more often than not the results will be bad too.

 

It was you that stated to stop being results orientated and it was a team game, I'd sooner have the team with most wins in the league, than the best statistical pitcher in the league.

 

It's a results sport, where wins determine success not an individual's statistics.

 

As a Blue Jay fan I want Sanchez to be successful as it will help us to be successful, as I do with all our players. I can't understand the level some posters on here seem to be wanting him to fail to be proved right.

 

I totally understand liking and disliking players on your team, and preferring some over others but wishing for failure for any player on your team is just baffling to me.

[Boxcar]

It was you that stated to stop being results orientated and it was a team game, I'd sooner have the team with most wins in the league, than the best statistical pitcher in the league.

 

It's a results sport, where wins determine success not an individual's statistics.

 

As a Blue Jay fan I want Sanchez to be successful as it will help us to be successful, as I do with all our players. I can't understand the level some posters on here seem to be wanting him to fail to be proved right.

 

I totally understand liking and disliking players on your team, and preferring some over others but wishing for failure for any player on your team is just baffling to me.

 

Name one person wishing failure on Sanchez.

[ElNik2013]

It was you that stated to stop being results orientated and it was a team game, I'd sooner have the team with most wins in the league, than the best statistical pitcher in the league.

 

It's a results sport, where wins determine success not an individual's statistics.

 

As a Blue Jay fan I want Sanchez to be successful as it will help us to be successful, as I do with all our players. I can't understand the level some posters on here seem to be wanting him to fail to be proved right.

 

I totally understand liking and disliking players on your team, and preferring some over others but wishing for failure for any player on your team is just baffling to me.

 

 

I don't think these fans want Sanchez, specifically to fail. However, they would rather see the team fail in order to get the GM fired rather than see the team make the playoffs which would = an extension for the F/O.

 

There are definitely some biases at work here. Same applies to the other side in that they act like homers quite a bit. Although, let's face it, despite Sanchez's struggles in the minors, he's remained a top 50ish prospect in baseball so it's not just homerism at work here, some watch him pitch and think he's a few tweaks away from being very good.

 

Anyway...

[Caper]

Name one person wishing failure on Sanchez.

 

I think it's pretty fair to say you can't stand Sanchez going 6 and 2/3's giving up 2 runs, when every little nerd stat says he should be giving up a lot more.

 

And to add insult to injury, one guy that's helping Sanchez inspector gadget his way though each outing is the defense of one Ryan Goins... Who also according to the nerds might be the worst player to ever touch a baseball.

[Boxcar]

I think it's pretty fair to say you can't stand Sanchez going 6 and 2/3's giving up 2 runs, when every little nerd stat says he should be giving up a lot more.

 

And to add insult to injury, one guy that's helping Sanchez inspector gadget his way though each outing is the defense of one Ryan Goins... Who also according to the nerds might be the worst player to ever touch a baseball.

 

See: Blue Jay team record

 

And what I can't stand is people spouting off that he pitched well in those outings, because he didn't. Of course I want the Jays to win.

[jays4life19]

The thing with Sanchez is he doesn't come off as a gigantic douche like some baseball players. He seems like a pretty good kid and shows passion on the mound. Absolutely no one who posts on a BlueJays message board wants to see him fail.

 

He sucks right now and chances are he will continue to suck but god i hope i'm wrong.

[Governator]

The thing with Sanchez is he doesn't come off as a gigantic douche like some baseball players. He seems like a pretty good kid and shows passion on the mound. Absolutely no one who posts on a BlueJays message board wants to see him fail.

 

He sucks right now and chances are he will continue to suck but god i hope i'm wrong.

 

 

Serious question - how many starts of putting up average numbers as a 5th starter replacement does it take before one no longer sucks right now?

[jays4life19]

Serious question - how many starts of putting up average numbers as a 5th starter replacement does it take before one no longer sucks right now?

 

He's 100/109 in qualified starters in xFIP-. 104/109 in FIP. 107/109 in SIERA. Are you really going to argue that he doesn't suck right now?

[King]

He's 100/109 in qualified starters in xFIP-. 104/109 in FIP. 107/109 in SIERA. Are you really going to argue that he doesn't suck right now?

 

Get out of here with those nerd stats.

 

58/109 in ERA

Tied for 23/109 in Wins

[jays4life19]

Get out of here with those nerd stats.

 

58/109 in ERA

Tied for 23/109 in Wins

 

lol.

 

Ok you got me. You win.

[Governator]

He's 100/109 in qualified starters in xFIP-. 104/109 in FIP. 107/109 in SIERA. Are you really going to argue that he doesn't suck right now?

 

 

Yes his season numbers suck, I'm not suggesting otherwise. It was a rather simple question, if the answer is not until his season numbers turn to average then just f***ing say that, Christ.

[jays4life19]

Yes his season numbers suck, I'm not suggesting otherwise. It was a rather simple question, if the answer is not until his season numbers turn to average then just f***ing say that, Christ.

 

Until his numbers don't suck is the amount of starts he needs to make until he no longer sucks.

 

It was a pretty stupid question but i tried to respond intelligently. But if the above makes you happy...there ya go.

[tercet]

Thread is goat

 

certain people will never get it(jimcanuck)

[TheHurl]

Yes his season numbers suck, I'm not suggesting otherwise. It was a rather simple question, if the answer is not until his season numbers turn to average then just f***ing say that, Christ.

 

I haven't looked closely at the numbers in the past three starts...but has anything changed in the peripherals? More swinging strikes, better velocity, greater number of first pitch strikes, throwing a new pitch or just pitch frequency. If nothing has changed it can be assumed that there will still be some concerns. If something has changed it could be a great sign.

[tercet]

I haven't looked closely at the numbers in the past three starts...but has anything changed in the peripherals? More swinging strikes, better velocity, greater number of first pitch strikes, throwing a new pitch or just pitch frequency. If nothing has changed it can be assumed that there will still be some concerns. If something has changed it could be a great sign.

 

Less BB%, Splits are same, GB% around the same, babip nothing too crazy.

[KingKat]

I haven't looked closely at the numbers in the past three starts...but has anything changed in the peripherals? More swinging strikes, better velocity, greater number of first pitch strikes, throwing a new pitch or just pitch frequency. If nothing has changed it can be assumed that there will still be some concerns. If something has changed it could be a great sign.

 

This doesn't directly answer your question but it's a solid Sanchez analysis and a good read: http://capitaljays.com/2015/05/19/aaron-sanchez-pitch-fx-joe-kelly-and-a-truly-unique-changeup/

[Governator]

Until his numbers don't suck is the amount of starts he needs to make until he no longer sucks.

 

It was a pretty stupid question but i tried to respond intelligently. But if the above makes you happy...there ya go.

 

 

If by intelligently you mean rehashing his season stats that didn't actually answer my question, then okay sorry for my stupid question... You're in a super-defensive mode right now like almost everyone in this thread even though I wasn't arguing he hasn't sucked this season. If anything, I was acknowledging it but the word sucks is a horrible, half disrespectful way to describe someone's performance when you badly want them to succeed as a Jays fan. Small improvements go practically unacknowledged on Sanchez from most in this thread because they don't affect his overall stat line very much while other homers take it as ace material. There has to be middle ground somewhere if and when he continues to throw well.

[King]

I haven't looked closely at the numbers in the past three starts...but has anything changed in the peripherals? More swinging strikes, better velocity, greater number of first pitch strikes, throwing a new pitch or just pitch frequency. If nothing has changed it can be assumed that there will still be some concerns. If something has changed it could be a great sign.

 

Velo per start:

http://i.imgur.com/fNY4jP8.png

 

Usage:

http://i.imgur.com/5lAK7j7.png

[KingKat]

Yes his season numbers suck, I'm not suggesting otherwise. It was a rather simple question, if the answer is not until his season numbers turn to average then just f***ing say that, Christ.

 

You're in a super-defensive mode right now like almost everyone in this thread

 

Don't be a hypocrite.

[King]

PD Stats by start:

 

http://i.imgur.com/g2F2956.png

[King]

PD Stats by start:

 

http://i.imgur.com/g2F2956.png

 

FYI

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/plate-discipline-o-swing-z-swing-etc/

 

O-Swing% = Swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone

Z-Swing% = Swings at pitches inside the zone / pitches inside the zone

Swing% = Swings / Pitches

O-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches outside the zone / Swings on pitches outside the zone

Z-Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone

Contact% = Number of pitches on which contact was made / Swings

Zone% = Pitches in the strike zone / Total pitches

F-Strike% = First pitch strikes / PA

SwStr% = Swings and misses / Total pitches

 

League average PD stats for SP in 2015:

http://i.imgur.com/oaY6KQl.png

[Boxcar]

Seems kind of all over the place. No real signs of linear improvement.

[Governator]

Seems kind of all over the place. No real signs of linear improvement.

 

Couldn't it be argued that his last 2 games he's thrown the ball harder, created more movement and resulted in more whiffs?

[King]

Couldn't it be argued that his last 2 games he's thrown the ball harder, created more movement and resulted in more whiffs?

 

Horizontal movement:

http://i.imgur.com/hYyFSpQ.png

 

Vertical movement:

http://i.imgur.com/5CvTjOz.png

 

Whiff %:

http://i.imgur.com/D1fTk2H.png