Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[RealAccountant]

Should be trade bait

[KingKat]

Injured

 

Hyperextended knee to be precise. Being reported as a minor injury even though Dr. Kingkat (not a licensed physician) thinks it sounds kind of serious.

[flafson]

Hyperextended knee to be precise. Being reported as a minor injury even though Dr. Kingkat (not a licensed physician) thinks it sounds kind of serious.

 

In Blue Jays terms, that means he's done for the season with torn ACL.

[flafson]

And BTW, if you want to stay healthy, don't do what this guy did...

 

http://deadstate.org/guy-grabs-waitresss-butt-waitress-knocks-him-the-fck-out/

[KingKat]

In Blue Jays terms, that means he's done for the season with torn ACL.

 

I guess it depends on the flexibility of the player but it's hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that you could bend your knee the wrong way without it being pretty serious.

[SAAviour]

My main reason for optimism with Sanchez is that, in his past 2 starts, he HAS been missing bats. If that continues, then he is moving in the right direction. I'm cautiously optimistic based on that fact alone. (Will take more than 2 starts for me to say "hey, he's improving", but it's a slightly encouraging sign.)

 

Deadpool is right.

 

Actually can one of you stats nerds confirm this because from watching this seems to be right anyway.

[DuckDuckGose]

Sanchez is exactly where Halladay was when he was 22yo. He needs to make adjustments but so does every 22yo pitcher. He has elite stuff and I'm excited to see if he can put it all together.

[Orgfiller]

Deadpool is right.

 

Actually can one of you stats nerds confirm this because from watching this seems to be right anyway.

 

King actually went in depth a few pages back, but the last two starts his SwStr% have been 9.4% and 9.3%. It's slightly above average, and combined with the fewer walks it's encouraging, but he also threw very few first pitch strikes (43.3% and 50.0%). This could all just be a lot of noise.

[BTS]

Stat nerds put way to much weight on there imperfect little equations. Some players just defy these metrics.Stat nerds fail to recognise this fact. It's like they all think advanced stats are infallible,they're not. Especially pitching and defensive metrics.

 

If I have to explain to you why Sanchez's ERA might always outperform his FIP then you aren't truly taking an objective look at your own stats.

 

His ERA might always outperform his xFIP, but that conversation is hundreds of innings away. And even if it does, it won't be more than a few tenths of a run. 4.77 xFIP Aaron Sanchez will need to become 4.3 xFIP Aaron Sanchez for any potential ERA-FIP skills to matter.

 

In other words, if he improves his peripherals by half a run, and has the ability to outperform his peripherals by a third of a run, he'll be a viable back end starter.

[Orgfiller]

Sanchez is exactly where Halladay was when he was 22yo. He needs to make adjustments but so does every 22yo pitcher. He has elite stuff and I'm excited to see if he can put it all together.

 

Stop comparing him to Halladay.

 

Not every young pitcher who struggles will become great.

 

STOP

[TheHurl]

Stat nerds put way to much weight on there imperfect little equations. Some players just defy these metrics.Stat nerds fail to recognise this fact. It's like they all think advanced stats are infallible,they're not. Especially pitching and defensive metrics.

 

If I have to explain to you why Sanchez's ERA might always outperform his FIP then you aren't truly taking an objective look at your own stats.

 

Exactly, it's much safer to assume that Sanchez will keep throwing exactly as he has, and his numbers will remain the same. Why look at history when this is the guy that will be the first.

[DuckDuckGose]

Stop comparing him to Halladay.

 

Not every young pitcher who struggles will become great.

 

STOP

 

Where did I say he is going to become great? Where did I compare him to CY Halladay? He compares well to 22yo Halladay who needed to make adjustments to reach his ceiling. It's statistically improbable Sanchez has anywhere near the same success as Halladay but that doesn't mean it wont or can't happen or that it is unreasonable to look at other pitchers who have been in a similar situation at the same age.

[TheHurl]

Stop comparing him to Halladay.

 

Not every young pitcher who struggles will become great.

 

STOP

 

It's actually not that bad of a comparison. Halladay had unsustainable good ERA numbers as a rookie. He started to pitch closer to his projections. Got sent down, learned a new pitch and came back much better. Difference being the numbers prior to the debut. No one is saying that Sanchez can't be an elite pitcher...just something has to change.

[IronLadle]

Exactly, it's much safer to assume that Sanchez will keep throwing exactly as he has, and his numbers will remain the same. Why look at history when this is the guy that will be the first.

 

Why is it safe to assume his current numbers will stay the same? He's only 22 if he was 27 I'd agree.

[BTS]

Why is it safe to assume his current numbers will stay the same? He's only 22 if he was 27 I'd agree.

 

It looks more and more like the safest bet you can make is that a player's skills will remain static from 22/23 to 27 or so and then begin to decline.

[BTS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4732&position=P

 

Obviously not for the exact same reasons as Sanchez,but here's one guy that has made a career out of proving pitching metrics aren't the be all and end all. Or is 1800 IP not a big enough sample?

 

Exceptions to every rule. Buehrle is another. But you don't assume a guy has that skill after 9 starts because he's on your favourite team and you're looking for a narrative that explains why his ERA is OK with awful underlying numbers.

[bendera3]

He was a dynamite reliever last year but it hasn't translated into good starting pitching. I think you either 1) let him stay on the roster as a reliever or 2) send him down and try to get him to work on his command.

[tercet]

He was a dynamite reliever last year but it hasn't translated into good starting pitching. I think you either 1) let him stay on the roster as a reliever or 2) send him down and try to get him to work on his command.

 

No he was an unbelievably lucky reliever in 2014. 157 babip

[DuckDuckGose]

No he was an unbelievably lucky reliever in 2014. 157 babip

 

And a 2.8 FIP, he was a very good reliever even when you factor in luck.

[IronLadle]

He was a dynamite reliever last year but it hasn't translated into good starting pitching. I think you either 1) let him stay on the roster as a reliever or 2) send him down and try to get him to work on his command.

 

I think letting him work with Russell Martin is a better option than sending him down, especially because we don't have a replacement

[TheHurl]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4732&position=P

 

Obviously not for the exact same reasons as Sanchez,but here's one guy that has made a career out of proving pitching metrics aren't the be all and end all. Or is 1800 IP not a big enough sample?

 

I knew that Cain would be the sample, and he always is in the Anti-FIP (or DIPS) argument. In the end his FIP and ERA are 0.33 apart (and this is one of the biggest examples over that much of a sample size). He has outperformed his xFIP by quite a bit. Is FIP perfect...absolutely not at all. NOW FOR THE IMPORTANT PART...are most of the people talking about Sanchez needing a change to be successful, using FIP or xFIP as their reasoning for him not being successful if his current numbers don't change. ABSOLUTELY NOT. My biggest argument is that all of the pitchers that have had a successful (or successfulish) career with a low swinging strike percentage, have a lower than average BB rate. That's just one thing. Cherry picking any one stat is a bad way to evaluate. In Sanchez's case there are several red flags, as well as some major pluses (his velocity notably) about his current repertoire.

[Governator]

I bet if you could prove it, some of you would argue he doesn't clip his toe nails enough times per season to effectively lower his walk rate.

[KingKat]

I bet if you could prove it, some of you would argue he doesn't clip his toe nails enough times per season to effectively lower his walk rate.

 

People who argue when proof is on their side are the worst.

[Governator]

People who argue when proof is on their side are the worst.

 

Yea I f***ed that up. Remove everything before the comma haha.

[KingKat]

And by proof you mean a 50 inning sample? Please don't quote minor league stats for kids drafted out of high school.

 

No by proof. I just meant "proof" generally. Re-read the thread. See in what context I made the statement/joke.

[Captain Adama]

This thread reminds me so much of the Gustavo Chacin debates many years ago.

 

Lol, if I was on the boards that long ago, I would've argued that he was a good starter too.

[BTS]

Lol, if I was on the boards that long ago, I would've argued that he was a good starter too.

 

Those threads were legendary. The Sanchez debate is tame by comparison.

[GD]

Those threads were legendary. The Sanchez debate is tame by comparison.

 

I assume it's either deleted or all the posts are gone from bannings by now.

[Jimcanuck]

Generally, the first 9 MLB starts of a pitcher's career do NOT foretell the future. Halladay is just one of many examples, and an extreme (ie. not good) one at that. Sure, Sanchez' minor league numbers are cause for concern, but MiLB numbers can be misleading. He seems to be improving and until and if he implodes, he is best right where he is.

 

Let's see what happens.

[King]

Generally, the first 9 MLB starts of a pitcher's career do NOT foretell the future. Halladay is just one of many examples, and an extreme (ie. not good) one at that. Sure, Sanchez' minor league numbers are cause for concern, but MiLB numbers can be misleading. He seems to be improving and until and if he implodes, he is best right where he is.

 

Let's see what happens.

 

What exactly is misleading about his minor league numbers?