Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[baubau]

What exactly is misleading about his minor league numbers?

 

They do not calculate competitive at bats. Walks alone are just misleading King!

[Jimcanuck]

What exactly is misleading about his minor league numbers?

 

Lots of things.... many of these guys are still physically developing (Sanchez was a rake just two years ago), they may be working on a new pitch or a new approach at the plate, they may have an uncorrected flaw.

 

Minor leagues is for player development, by definition these are unfinished products. A player at AAA and knocking on the MLB door is not the same as the A ball player of 2 or 3 seasons ago.

 

Hence, the MiLB numbers can be misleading.

[gruber92]

No he was an unbelievably lucky reliever in 2014. 157 babip

 

Lol, holy f***.

[Jimcanuck]

What exactly is misleading about his minor league numbers?

 

By the way, making decisions based on stats alone would mean Jose and Edwin wouldn't be here today, and Halladay traded mid-way through his 2nd season.

[GD]

By the way, making decisions based on stats alone would mean Jose and Edwin wouldn't be here today, and Halladay traded mid-way through his 2nd season.

 

Edwin and Bautista were solid enough guys before their breakouts

[Orgfiller]

By the way, making decisions based on stats alone would mean Jose and Edwin wouldn't be here today, and Halladay traded mid-way through his 2nd season.

 

Remember what happened to Halladay when he struggled? That's right, he got sent back to the minors to work things out.

[Boxcar]

What exactly is misleading about his minor league numbers?

 

He wasn't a Toronto Blue Jay when they were compiled.

[Boxcar]

Lots of things.... many of these guys are still physically developing (Sanchez was a rake just two years ago), they may be working on a new pitch or a new approach at the plate, they may have an uncorrected flaw.

 

Minor leagues is for player development, by definition these are unfinished products. A player at AAA and knocking on the MLB door is not the same as the A ball player of 2 or 3 seasons ago.

 

Hence, the MiLB numbers can be misleading.

 

Any proof to back that up or just the hand-wavy narrative?

[Jimcanuck]

Remember what happened to Halladay when he struggled? That's right, he got sent back to the minors to work things out.

 

Yes, to work with Mel Queen in Dunedin. Same thing is likely to happen to Sanchez, except it won't be with Mel.

[Jimcanuck]

Any proof to back that up or just the hand-wavy narrative?

 

What do you disagree with? Are you saying a ballplayer is a finished product in A ball, and the stats will foretell his MLB career?

[Jimcanuck]

Edwin and Bautista were solid enough guys before their breakouts

 

LOL Bautista managed -1.4 WAR through 5 seasons before his breakout midway through 2009.

[GD]

LOL Bautista managed -1.4 WAR through 5 seasons before his breakout midway through 2009.

 

Last 3 seasons have predictive value. 97, 86, 102 wRC+ in the seasons before, all with low BABIP.

[Boxcar]

What do you disagree with? Are you saying a ballplayer is a finished product in A ball, and the stats will foretell his MLB career?

 

I obviously disagree with "MiLB stats are misleading" part, or at least how misleading you must think them to be for you to be super optimistic on Sanchez.

[BTS]

Bautista comes up every time the evidence doesn't support someone's narrative, and I never understand the point being made. Analytics couldn't predict Bautista's breakthrough, therefore ignore analytics and give playing time to whoever happens to be in house?

 

We've seen this brought up time and time again: "What would have happened to Bautista if your precious stats decided his future? Play JPA/Thames/Sierra/Goins/Francisco/Sanchez! Because Jose Bautista became really good at baseball at an unusually old age!"

 

What a lazy and meaningless argument. It doesn't even make sense.

[Orgfiller]

Bautista comes up every time the evidence doesn't support someone's narrative, and I never understand the point being made. Analytics couldn't predict Bautista's breakthrough, therefore ignore analytics and give playing time to whoever happens to be in house?

 

We've seen this brought up time and time again: "What would have happened to Bautista if your precious stats decided his future? Play JPA/Thames/Sierra/Goins/Francisco/Sanchez! Because Jose Bautista became really good at baseball at an unusually old age!"

 

What a lazy and meaningless argument. It doesn't even make sense.

 

Randy Johnson walked a lot of hitters in the minors and had great stuff. He did pretty well.

 

Aaron Sanchez = Randy Johnson

[BTS]

Randy Johnson walked a lot of hitters in the minors and had great stuff. He did pretty well.

 

Aaron Sanchez = Randy Johnson

 

Yeah that too.

[Atothe]

Bautista comes up every time the evidence doesn't support someone's narrative, and I never understand the point being made. Analytics couldn't predict Bautista's breakthrough, therefore ignore analytics and give playing time to whoever happens to be in house?

 

We've seen this brought up time and time again: "What would have happened to Bautista if your precious stats decided his future? Play JPA/Thames/Sierra/Goins/Francisco/Sanchez! Because Jose Bautista became really good at baseball at an unusually old age!"

 

What a lazy and meaningless argument. It doesn't even make sense.

 

Actually fangraphs kinda did

[Jimcanuck]

LOL nowhere am I suggesting Sanchez is going to be a good MLB pitcher. He needs to make some improvements first.

 

My point is, don't rely too much on stats. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Balance it out with scouting and player development. The talent evaluators see something in Sanchez not reflected in his stats, how else would he have been rated highly in prospect lists.

 

And don't give me BS about stats predicting Bautista's breakout. Gaston, for all his faults, is the one that saw his potential and made the swing adjustment leading to his breakout. Bautista has said as much.

[Atothe]

LOL nowhere am I suggesting Sanchez is going to be a good MLB pitcher. He needs to make some improvements first.

 

My point is, don't rely too much on stats. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Balance it out with scouting and player development. The talent evaluators see something in Sanchez not reflected in his stats, how else would he have been rated highly in prospect lists.

 

And don't give me BS about stats predicting Bautista's breakout. Gaston, for all his faults, is the one that saw his potential and made the swing adjustment leading to his breakout. Bautista has said as much.

 

Okay but they are arguing he should develop in the minors and when his fastball command is more polished then he should be recalled. I think you're saying the only place he can learn to pitch is the majors

[IronLadle]

Okay but they are arguing he should develop in the minors and when his fastball command is more polished then he should be recalled. I think you're saying the only place he can learn to pitch is the majors

 

I'd agree with letting him develop in minors if we had any pitchers in the minors worth calling up.

[Jimcanuck]

Okay but they are arguing he should develop in the minors and when his fastball command is more polished then he should be recalled. I think you're saying the only place he can learn to pitch is the majors

 

No he can learn in the minors. But, once again, he's been OK as the 5th starter and until he implodes, send him out there every 5th day.

 

Last time I checked, Norris had 13 BB in 22 innings in Buffalo. It's not like there's a ready replacement for Sanchez available.

[GD]

Matt Boyd

[IronLadle]

Matt Boyd

 

Boyd needs to be promoted first

[Jimcanuck]

Matt Boyd

 

Maybe, but someone knowledgeable on here compared Boyd to Nolin/Molina.

[Jimcanuck]

You realize he can make those same adjustments in Buffalo, right? The mound is the same height there and they use the same type of baseball. This baptism by fire approach is not necessary and possible harmful.

 

In the offseason, I stated the ideal would be to have Norris and Sanchez in Buffalo as depth, with a rotation of Stroman, Dickey, MB, Hutch, and a free agent.

 

He's here now, and not doing too shabby, results wise. What would you do, demote him now?

[Atothe]

In the offseason, I stated the ideal would be to have Norris and Sanchez in Buffalo as depth, with a rotation of Stroman, Dickey, MB, Hutch, and a free agent.

 

He's here now, and not doing too shabby, results wise. What would you do, demote him now?

 

I wouldn't now, curiosity has the best of me. Two good back to back starts. I wanna see if he can make it three

[GD]

In the offseason, I stated the ideal would be to have Norris and Sanchez in Buffalo as depth, with a rotation of Stroman, Dickey, MB, Hutch, and a free agent.

 

He's here now, and not doing too shabby, results wise. What would you do, demote him now?

 

jesus

[Nox]

jesus

 

Earned Runs = Resultz

 

Duh

[sachmo55]

I don't fully disagree with people who say that minor league stats can be misleading. There are definitely examples of guys with mediocre minor league numbers that became successful major league pitchers. For some it was because they were working on a specific pitch (ala Johan Santana and his changeup), or were experimenting with grips and expanding their repertoire (Jacob Degrom) or something clicked and they figured it out (Ricky Romero). But there were usually signs when they got up to the majors that they were ready to succeed. Sanchez's problems in the minors haven't gone away at all in the bigs. He's so far avoided looking like a disaster because he has avoided hard contact. but it remains to be seen if that's a sustainable skill for him.

[glory]

Matt Boyd

 

I have a strange feeling that the reason Boyd is still in Double-A when he should be in AAA is because Alex is going to trade him in his last ditch desperation move.