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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    He's broken. unfixable. Jayson Heyward. Should be sent to Dunnedin and not play again until his swing is fixed. They owe him 500 million. To save the investment need to pay 50 million of physchiatrists. Maybe he is injured. I remember him getting hit in the hand 3 weeks or so ago. Maybe they need to DL him. Do something. Get CITO f***ing Gaston assigned to him. 500 million. Pay 50 million to fix the investment.
  2. Olerud363.354
    Whifflenuts should concentrate on the wild card race. It is heating up and a historic race to see who will be the first to make the playoffs with a losing record (in full season, a couple teams were tracking for it in 94 and 2020 partial seasons). White Sox 19-21 Rangers 19-21 Blue Jays 18-22 Only 1 game back. Second thing to concentrate on is the Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, Luis Arrraez homerun race. Right now Clement and Guerrero are in the lead with 2, As Arraez has yet to hit one. However with improved defense Arraez is tracking for 5 WAR better then both Clement and Guerrero. Just a fun side race between the three best contact hitters in the game, no power from these guys but they march to a different beat. Will any or all get 4 WAR with less than 10 homers?
  3. Olerud363.354
    Yariel made 21 starts in 2024 with the same fWAR per 9 and xERA as Lauer in 2025 Maybe Miles and Yariel can do 2-3 innings one day and another inning another day a week.
  4. Olerud363.354
    Sadly most guys will fail. Neither Roden or Shreck or projected to do much. Both project well below average. It would be interesting to have access to retro-active projections. Like what were Lukes, Clement, projected to do before 2024? Probably less than nothing then somehow they've been average. This is why I am pretty hard on the prospects. To be projected to be anything you need a good track record at a young age and keep beating up age appropriate levels.
  5. Olerud363.354
    Great launch angles from the stars of the game, May 10th 2026 Junior Caminero 22 years old - 31 degrees 105.2 mph 404 feet HOMERUN! 11 on the year! Aaron Judge 34 years old - 26 degrees 104.4 373 feet HOMERUN! (must have had bad spin, still a homerun though) 16 on the year! Konnor Griffin 20 years old - 110 mph, 21 degrees 412 feet HOMERUN! 3 on the year! Kyle Schwarber 33 years old - 107.4 mph, 31 degrees 433 feet HOMERUN! 16 on the year Young stars, old stars, launching the ball and giving their fans a thrill! Win or lose it's always fun to go to the game and see your favorite player hit one high and deep!
  6. Olerud363.354
    Back for spring training. Looking forward to it already.
  7. Olerud363.354
    This guy is named Maciver. If you remember MacGyver it was a TV show you would watched when you got pissed at the 86 Jays and turned the channel. If you are old that is. He is 29. If they lost Heineman to keep BV then needed another catcher can this guy hold the fort? Or flawed somehow?
  8. Olerud363.354
    Sean Keys, .248 .373 .450 career minor league hitter (22 still, turns 23 this year) Bohrofen .244 .369 .460
  9. Olerud363.354
    Junior Caminero - average exit velocity 3 games series 112 mph. total distance 2200 feet of homeruns. 22 years old. Unlimited future. Unbelievable hope. Such a joy to have a 22 year old do special things. Gausman - down to 89 mph on fastball continuing trend, lose 11-0 Cease - pitches well but loses 1-0 Okamoto - 3 errors, total distance 500 feet, split between 5 popups. Stangstag proven right about Okamoto. All hope lost. Rays fans cheer.
  10. Olerud363.354
    R.J. Schreck after a slow start has been super hot and is pretty much exactly at his minor league averages 3/5 with 4 rbis today .245 .380 .450 or so on the year. He doesn't K-much for a guy who hits .240 with 100 walks per 150 games. Like an almost 1-1 k/bb career. Numbers very similar to Davis Schneider in the minors, a lefty, slightly better k-rate. I wonder how these numbers will translate. GO/AO is extreme on the low side. Gets in the ball in the air.
  11. Olerud363.354
    How do you explain New Hampshire, 2021 ?, second half 2024. The homerun contests, New Hampshire - John Schneider first plays with sign stealing schemes getting coaches to relay pitches to Vlad. 2019 - Schneider gives Vlad the signs in homerun contest 2021 - Schneider perfecting sign stealing with Vlad 2022/23 - Teams counter more protective of signs 2024 - Second half Schneider comes up with new scheme. 2025 - uses new scheme on and off so other teams won't clue in. Brings it out for playoffs... OK. I'm possibly with you here.
  12. Olerud363.354
    My impression is it's more like the yips that players get when throwing. I am sure it's not work ethic, or mental toughness. Like other have said he did in the playoffs in the most pressure games possible. Like something gets messed up in his swing, very small, hard to detect, hard to fix, just a biomechanical weird glitch. Maybe it can never be fixed. Or maybe the Red Sox can fix it 2026 .260 2 homers 57 rbis 2027 .190 0 homers 38 rbis 67 gidb Commisioner transfers Vlad to Red Sox to see if they can fix him but Blue Jays still have to pay his salary 2028 .388 67 homers 201 rbis
  13. Olerud363.354
    Goal. 1 month at least 40 strikeout, 20 walks. 20 hard swings at pitches down the middle. If he goes .000 with 70 ks in the month so be it.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Junior Caminero 28 degrees 112 mph 450 feet HOMERUN Rays fans cheers Aaron Judge 27 degrees 118 mph 460 feet HOMERUN Yankees fans cheers Junior Caminero 22 degrees 108 mph pulled 390 feet HOMERUN Rays fans cheers Aaron Judge 31 degrees 115 mph 448 feet HOMERUN Yankees fans cheers what a battle, what thrills Yankees/Rays still tied for first. Aaron Judge 25 degrees 105 mph 370 feet into the short portch? Junior Caminero 18 degrees 340 feet right down the line!!!! This is unbelievable show. A pennant race for the ages. A battle between titans. And Vladimir Guerrero JR. 97 mph -1 degree double play to the short stop RAYS WIN! And Vladimir Guerrero JR 102 mph -9 degree to the first basement YANKEES WIN! What a pennant race, what a homerun race.
  15. Olerud363.354
    SOLER - WHY THE f*** CANT VLAD DO THAT OCCASIONALLY. WHAT THE HELL? I guess he doesn't get to hit against Eric Lauer. JEWSIC FUDGING CHRRRIIIST HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? How did Vlad lose his power again 22 years old 48 homers , easy power. Driving them 450 into the night. 420 to the3 opposite 116.5 mph, 27 de3grees 27 years old - 84 mph -6 degrees 500 million 14 years, -10 de3gresss 1 foot ground out, double play
  16. Olerud363.354
    Done this his whole career. Not a complete failure but goes long stretches where he loses it. He's like a combination of Albert Pujols and Billy Butler... closer to Butler. Billy Butler was a guy I never thought of for Vlad comparisons. But - great, great teenage minor league hitter on par with Vlad Then - had moments in his early 20s where he looked like he would be great major league hitter, hitting .310 29 100 or so one year, kind of like 2024 Vlad Finally matured age 27-29 as a .279 hitter with 9 homers. Vlad will be even funnier, great minor hitter, record setting 48 homer homerun title winning season as a 22 year old, demolishes playoff pitching in historic post-season. Matures as a .278 hitter with 7 homeruns.
  17. Olerud363.354
    It will be interesting to see where he ends up at the end of the year. Through 40 games he is a plus defender, not a gold glover or anything. Just trending for maybe half a war positive. Good reflexes, quick release, accurate arm. Does Barger have raw athleticism? 100 mph arm, looks like an athlete but seems his D at third scores about the same as Okamoto. Unreliable eye test but seems Barger wasn't a good at reacting quick, the quick lunges and dives that watching on TV Okamoto seems good at. Maybe I am wrong.
  18. Olerud363.354
    For perspective Vlad has always scored between -10 and -20 defense on fangraphs which dings his WAR. Okamoto is trending for a +5. Vlad is dinged a bit by a positional adjustment, but the adjustment is meant to even things out. When he did play 3rd he was still -10. So not saying Okamoto is a gold glover or anything, just that he is so far trending to be a slight positive, which is great combined with the power he is showing so far.
  19. Olerud363.354
    I've been pleasantly surprised by Okamoto's defense. Things could change but so far it seems he'll be a slightly plus defensive player by both the baseball reference and fangraphs systems. On fangraphs guys can range from around -20 to +20 defense, and Okamoto is at 1 right now. On bbref it tends to be between -2 and +2 WAR and he is at 0.2. He doesn't seem to have great arm strength or speed, or maybe even overall range, but seems to have great reflexes, good at diving and getting back on his feet quickly, accurate arm, and uses the bounce throw well. Ha ha, not that I know s*** about scouting 3rd basemen.
  20. Olerud363.354
    Unless you think Okamoto is a mirage and the exit velocities and defensive metrics say he isn't, then that is not true. Based on data we have so far Okamoto is an upgrade. Exit velocities are great, defense passes the eye test, and the defensive metrics agree. Slightly above average 3b with 90+ percentile exit v related metrics. Do you think he is going to fall apart or something? Bo .290 .330 .450 can't run, can't field too well * Okamota .250 .440 .480 can't run, can field surpisingly well ** * in 2026 one of the worst players in baseball, could be fluke ** very limited data which could change
  21. Olerud363.354
    It's determined by a debate basically. Team and players reps debate the value of the player and who he is comparable to and then the arbiter decides. Like a trial almost. No reason you can't use WAR. No reason you can't bring it up if guy padded his numbers off of position player. Can do anything. Could create your own formula if you want. Not sure if it is still really decided by old school numbers as you would have to think they are using more advanced stuff now. Or whatever side is advantaged by the more advanced stuff is. It's a weird system. Decided by a guy and who knows how much that guy knows. I assume they educate him or get someone with a baseball background and aware of latest trends. I would think number padding wouldn't be a big deal as they can bring it up if significant. Probably everyone gets a chance at that anyway.
  22. Olerud363.354
    Power Tool Scouting Report Jesus Sanchez 60 - good raw power, solid exit velocity, looking for consistent launch angles Brandon Valenzuela 60 - good raw power, solid exit velocity with good launch angles. Ernie Clement 30 - Solid double hitters and can pull 10 homers but lacks raw power. Vladimir "Arraez" Guerrero Jr. 25 - Good bat to ball skills and maintaining .300 average but lacks extra base power.
  23. Olerud363.354
    Agreed with that. Part of my negative outlook is that I'm skeptical Bieber and Yesivage are going to be fully healthy and Corbin can keep itup. If they are, if Corbin can keep it up, if that rotation is healthy for 100 games then I raise the Jays division odds from 1% to 100%. They go 82-18 over last 100 if Kirk back, Barger back healthy, Vlad gets our of Arraez mode, I think that is a great team, just don't know if we see it.
  24. Olerud363.354
    The AL is crazy. Realistically the White Sox probably don't win. But could have the crazy situation where WC1 and WC2 are strong teams, and WC3 and Central winner are awful teams but play each other so one awful team makes the ALDS with the easier path.
  25. Olerud363.354
    They are scared because they see someone post the fangraphs playoff odds? Maybe we should post the Blue Jays Message Board odds beside them. Fangraphs: 1.7 % chance of division, 30% chance of wild card Jays Centre odds: 39 % chance of division, 85% chance of wild card. My advice. Different systems do the odds a bit different, each has their bias so maybe take the average? Again just my suggestion and all our welcome, love to hear all views, Positive Petes you are very welcome here just in case you have been scared a bit by the Negative Nancies.
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