Olerud363.354

This season has been a disaster and gets worse and worse every day. Except according to fangraphs the playoff odds have been slowly increasing since bottoming out at about 30% they are now up to 45%. And the dream to become the first team with a non-winning record to win the world series remains in play. A lot would have to go right and a few few things wrong for this to happen. 1. Fangraphs projects only 3 teams in the AL to be above .500 and three playoff teams to have exactly 81 wins (non-winning record) 2. So in fact there is a chance one of those teams could make the playoffs with a losing record and it could be our Blue Jays. 3. It is still unlikely a losing team or a .500 team make the playoffs I would think, it just seems that while the projections have a bunch of near .500 teams, the reality is some of those teams will win 84 and some 74 and the playoff teams will be above .500. 4. We can still dream though and here are my playoff predictions WCS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Guardians 84-78 ALDS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Mariners 86-76 ALCS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Yankess 102-60 WS: Blue Jays 79-83 over Dodgers 112-50

For 70 games at least this has apparently reversed. Arraez is elite defensively this year according to fangraphs and savant, Ernie sub-par. Real? Not real? Fluke? Flaw in the d-stats systems? Arraez got some good tips from SF coaches? Ernie lost a step? Will it reverse the second half? I feel like a bit of all of the above. Hard to believe Arraez was really that bad defensively. Not the fastest guy but obviously elite hand eye coordination and you think that would translate somewhat on defense.

Maybe. Looks like he has never played anywhere except 3rd and 1st which could limit his playing time in Toronto the next couple of years. Though I guess DH will be open next year. I wonder if his range and speed are awful. You would think Jays would give him occasional reps at 2b and left field if it was at all feasible for him to play there. On the other hand would be nice on days like the last two to have a real bat to sub in for Vlad.

Like if you divide it into 3 things 1. Return to 2021 Vlad and a run like Manny Ramirez/Cabrera had age 27 to 33 2. Yandy Diaz 2020-2026 numbers 3. Fall apart completely Jayson Heyward style. It's like in my mind I can so see 3. happening I'd take 2 in a heart beat. The difference between 1 and 2 and 3 is like 6.5 WAR player, 3.5, 0 WAR player. But 3 would be so disastrous, franchise and soul crushing, it would be a relief if 2 happens. With 2 you at least have a functional franchise and Vlad becomes the highest WAR player in team history via most games played.

The 500 million is over 14 years and pretty even I think. If he is the 3.5 WAR version of Yandy Diaz then the contract will be OK. At least for the next few years. If he literally played like Yandy Diaz for 6 or 7 years he'd be on a hall of fame track still with the counting numbers, batting title contention. He'd like be at 40 WAR at 34 with a few more years to tack on. He'd set the team record in WAR and most counting stats and good enough to hit third on a contender. That's the thought experiment I have. If a hypothetical higher being told you could lock in 7 years of Yandy Diaz prime, no more, no less, would you take it? If you don't take it Vlad could be better and return to triple crown Vlad, or could fall apart completely Jayson Heyward style.

But he was awesome for a month in between .... That was with 5 off, 2 game days, 1 off, 2 on, 3 off, 2 on, 1 off, 3 on, 1 off, 2 on, 4 off, 2 on, 1 off, 3 on, 1 off, 2 on. 17 off 18 games and he was great again ... and you mention there is a rumor he has some injury, and he does, bad back. Maybe give him some load management moving forward.

If someone said I give you 100% chance that Vlad will be as good as 2020-2026 Yandy Diaz for the next 7 years you take it right? Like that would be 20 WAR, no absolutely awful seasons. Contending for batting titles. Popping 25 homers once or twice. And never being a monster but never disaster. Like right now he is low end Yandy Diaz, and moving to up to good Yandy Diaz would be awesome. Like if you had to give up a chance of Vlad returning to 2021 Vlad, for a guarantee he is Yandy Diaz, not just the bad version but some good too, you take it now. Don't you?

.243 .318 .390 career minor leaguer and was mostly awful before this year. .330 .360 .580 this year, so maybe something clicked. Sean Keys had his first buffalo homerun this year. Up to .246 .380 .465 career, .290 .416 .590 this year.

Cito Gaston hitting coach, he will demand he pull dat ball with great exit velocity or he will sit for someone who can like Elyn Sosa

Apparently though that dog got rabies so they had to wack him. It would have been a better story if he was just old.

Probably financially constrained, but yeah I guess in that case why waste money on Alonso instead of a starting pitcher. Will be interesting to see how this turns out. My biggest concern with the Orioles was that 3 years of winning with a deep playoff run would increase their revenues enough that they could sustain a really long run. Seems like they broke the momentum but still are a random deep playoff run from getting back there. What I mean is the Rays could win 115 games and go 11-0 in the playoffs and would draw 1.7 million the next year, they could win 100 5 years in a row, and attendance would probably drop as people got bored of winning 100. But the Orioles. A few years of winning with a deep playoff run and they are back to 3 million a year and big time revenues.

Could he be on Ozempic? I wonder if any players take that for weight. Like when Vlad was chubby he always did crazy offseason workouts to get to a solid 250 from his natural chubby 290. However what if Ozempic can keep him at 250 without the workouts, but it's a much softer 250? Baseless speculation but just wondering what the effect of Ozempic would be on a chubster athlete.

Good Vlad - 2017, 2018 (.400 in New Hampshire), 2021, 2019/2023 homerun contests, Second half 2024, 2025 playoffs. 115 mphers high into the night. Frustrating Vlad - 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 - typical game 115 mph double play, 118 mph single off the wall, 108 mph fly ball with bad spin caught at the wall. 105 mph ground ball out. 1/4. Bad Vlad - so far only in 2026 - typical game. 88 mph ground ball on slider out of zone, 77 mph pop up on weird swing, walk ( 8 pitch at bat, none in strike zone, still swing at 4 bad ones), 93 mph medium hit liner to right (easy catch, announcer says, "better contact that time, but right to the right fielder") At this point we can only hope for a return of Frustrating Vlad.

Hate to bump this, but saw the 'C'mon Vlad' thread got bumped. However is that all Vlad deserves? Maybe. Maybe it is not time yet for 'Send Vlad to Indy Ball" thread. On fangraphs ground ball rate, hard hit rate, line drive rate, all to the low end of career norms but nothing crazy only thing crazy is a 4.3% homerun per fly ball rate. On savant not as rosy. Exit velocity has been decreasing since 2024 and now at 90. On youtube lets watch 2021 highlights - it starts off with him hitting a ball to right field like Fred McGriff would. Like 20 rows back. Go to the 2:25 mark and he hits a ball OVER the fountain in Kansas City. It's pretty good just to get it to the fountain. So sad. Where did that guy go?

One reason I'm pretty skeptical of the 'adjustment period' thing is that mental toughness is such a huge part of the game, that even if some cultural adjustment factor is effecting performance, that itself is a flag, given all the trials and tribulations down the road. Like the guy who shows up to Florida, doesn't even notice he's in Florida with alligators, MAGAs, and old people, is able to chill with the MAGAs (some on his own team) despite them not speaking or liking his language. That's the guy who won't notice he's gone 0/15 in a big city some day and will chill and rebound. That might be the guy who can have a good relationship with the hitting coach's and fix mechanical problems. That's the guy who will joke around after Jeff Hoffman blows the biggest game of the year (after the blowing the biggest game of the century so far) and next week go win player of the week and keep his team afloat. Sanchez is doing good the last month for sure. Maybe his slump was just a slump and he's a great guy able to adjust to every situation and he didn't even notice he was in a slump or in Florida.

What is with the insults? This entire board has gone to hell, with long time posters (first Grant, then Spanky) apparently gone for life now because you guys just let the insult culture get out of hand. It's pretty unacceptable to start making jokes about mental health. Lucky enough never to have been down that road but I know people who have. If you make that comment about somebody who is actually on meds and struggling it is massively inappropriate and even dangerous. Just because you don't like somebody's posting style don't make it personal, don't insult them, and don't make comments about meds. Right now the Blue Jays hitters, at every single level ** (including the majors) are under-performing. It's a pretty reasonable thing to do to scan other teams top prospects and see how age comparable guys are doing just to put things in perspective. If you disagree then disagree nicely. ** Some guys in New Hampshire are doing good, but even there there may be the park (which is great for left handed hitters) at play.

So how do we know that Justin Gonzales isn't the one that has had his numbers knocked down? Your theory is that "some" but not all Dominican players are getting numbers knocked down because of adjustment. How do we know which ones are getting numbers knocked down? What if a guy was an absolute monster generational talent, and would have hit .350 .500 .800 in A ball, but was having trouble adjusting and got knocked down to .280 .370 .450 We don't know the baseline. All I am saying is treat all players the same. You don't know which ones are performing to their true talent level, so if you want to say 'on aveage domincans get their stats knocked down so in that context Justin Gonzalez may well be a generational talent' that's fine. But don't just make excuses for Blue Jays players only.

It's not stupid. It's a pretty simple concept. If there is some adjustment period for young prospects coming from the Dominican then it should be applied to every player. You can't cherry pick. If you think that Jesus Sanchez's .200 .300 .300 line gets a mulligan than that is fair, as long as Justin Gonzales' line also gets an adjustment. No Jays prospect have performed since Moreno, and this board has a million excuses. Dominicans adjusting to the states, new swings, young for the level. Fair enough. But all this should be applied equally to all prospects from all teams. How do we rate the other prospects like Justin Gonzales who presumably face the same obstacles but perform?

Here's another one in the 'minor league players that hit like Cavan Biggio' category https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bazzan000tra .252 in about 600 minor plate appearances, now a rookie of the year candidate (small sample size). Cavan Biggio's minor league triple slash (2244 PAs) - .249 .374 .409 Travis Bazzana's minor league triple slash (613 PAs) - .252 .391 .435 Bazzana is a bit better I guess. Every Blue Jays prospect minor league triple slash (NA) - .244 .377 .417 (approximately)

The Mets have kept Soto operational. The idea of the transfer program is to reward teams that are giving their players good coaching/sign stealing/supplements whatever it is, and giving those teams under-performing players which they could help. It would be a very rare program only for very special cases like Vlad. A generational talent that should be on a team that can keep him operating at his inherent skill level.

I wonder how Vlad would do being a #2 to a Judge or Soto, or Ohtani. Watching them hit 25 degree 110 milers 3 times a week. he would want to get in on the fun. Should be a 'for the good of the game...' rule in baseball, where commissioner can transfer a player to a different team, if the team is not getting the most out of his talents. Vlad could be transferred to Yankees or Dodgers. Hoffman probably also needs a transfer.

I figured maybe he has a tell and they hammerred him 9th inning Saturday... not really the exit Vs of the three hits were I think 85, 75 and 95. All at good launch angle though.

I think it goes back to sign stealing, game planning, whatever magic is going on in modern baseball. Everyone has a system, some more nefarious than others. I think the Jays system, which worked in the playoffs is broke now, or other teams figured it out. Vlad and others knew what was coming in 2025. Now they don't and leading to slap hitting reacting at the last minute. I'm not saying pitchcom hacking, but just finding tells, sign stealing, someone mentioned the coach's were relaying, but now they can't because of some positioning rule. Right now Orioles seem to know what is coming. Don't flinch on every ball from Yesivage and Hoffman, walk 10 times, clutch homers and extra base hits at just the right moment. Wouldn't put it past them that at the worst moment, all is lost, Mike Elias going to lose his job... they hack the pitchcom and all of a sudden Colten Clowser wins 4 games in 6 days.

Until last week when all of a sudden they (especially Cowser) started getting clutch hits at just the right time. They were terrible. Then a week ago they weren't and you have Basallo flapping like Aaron Judge just before Cowser hits his 4th game changing extra base hit in his last 20 at bats. I don't think Basallo was giving him the sign, too over the top, Basallo flapping was a decoy to obfuscate the real system that is giving them the next pitch.

June 5th 2026. 37 years since opening night at the Skydome. There might be joy 7-2 Jays. bases loaded Vlad up. Can get a lead even Hoffman could save -- swings at slider low and away, double play, looks like he was expecting a fastball. Got fooled. all of a sudden 7-4 in the 8th. Varland vs Cowser. What an eye Cowser has. Taking the tough breaker just off the plate 3-1 count. Gets around on 99 mph fastball. Pulls it. Got started early. Homerun Orioles lead!!!!! Cowser. Really gets around on that fastball. 42,000 Jays fans in shock. Pete Alonso pumping his fist waiting for Cowser at homeplate.