Olerud363.354

Or Seattle? Can't remember if he has general hate for Seattle or just the 2022 incarnation?

Turn the question the other way. Do you think Vlad could hit .320 .420 .600 over a 5 year span ? He's only 26. Judge, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez all went on 5 year runs like this at age 27 or later. So if he did do this, which from minor stats, best 4 month runs, and scouting reports I think he could I would call that performance 80 hit tool. I'd call his 2019-2025 performance 65 hit tool. So I don't mean to insult Vlad by calling him 65 hit tool, just saying he is a 65 right now, but still a potential 80 and could still go on that kind of run for a few years.

His career average of .288 is 13th I think among active players. 80 is hall of fame. 70 is elite. 65 is star according to the definition of the scale I found. If we consider 'hit tool' to mostly reflect average (with power, and plate discipline being different tools) In terms of hit tool 80 Aaerez - .317 70 (.290+) Altuve, Turner, Bichette, Judge, Betts, Diaz and a couple of others 65 (.285+) - Vlad, Seager, Yelich and a few others Vlad also ranks 8th in batting average in franchise history. Maybe 5th in the advanced era adjusted hitting ratings (after Baustista, Donaldson, McGriff and Delgado). Vlad has underperformed his expected stats. There is an argument that he has only dramatically underperformed twice (which is true) but he has under-performed by a bit a lot of other years, never over-performed so career is down 15 points wRC+ between expected and actual hitting stats. Some of this is semantics but I wouldn't label a top 10-20 hitter active and 5-10 franchise performing at 80 hit tool level. Like seems 80 should be for once in a generation. Like top 3 active. Best in 30 years for franchise. Vlad is still on hall of fame track if he lasts through his contract. And could up ranking much higher for "top 5" seasons then he will "overall". Like if he plays 20 years maybe he has 5 great seasons that are generational, but the overall isn't quite as good.

I think it would be fair to give Arraez an 80 grade hit tool. Multiple batting titles and active lifetime leader with near .320 career average. Amazingly his other tools are so bad he is an average player even with 80 hit tool. No walks, no power, no baserunning, no defense. Vlad is probably 65 hit tool, 60 power, 60 strike zone judgement in game, but 80/80/70 raw talent. On a hall of fame track Dave Winfield/Eddie Murray/Freddie Freeman level, but not Frank Thomas Pujols level. However story is still to be written. He has 2 elite seasons and if he ages well could put up a few more.

That's another one of the disconnects that frustrates fans. Good year this year, but the kind of year that you'd expect out of Lyle Overbay or Yandy Diaz. 80 hit tool makes you picture Pujols or Frank Thomas in his prime. Has his overall performance really lived up to 80 tool? Kind of semantics but who else has gotten the 80 hit tool? Seems like Vlad is performing more at a 70 hit tool level. He is elite in terms of velocity, but is that really 80 hit tool if the launch angle sweet spot isn't there? The launch angle sweet spot doesn't only effect the hard contact, but if launch angle is good soft contact will be more productive. Like Saturday he had a 101 mph homerun, and a couple of soft contact hits because launch angle was good on all. Like when Frank Thomas, or Cabrera or Manny Ramirez were putting up really big years was it all hard contact ? Or was some of the soft contact productive too? Or Judge this year? Winning a batting title King as much as he does did he also have a good sweet spot percentage on his soft contact? As just a fan watching a couple games this weekend Vlad gave the "And that's why he's such a great hitter, he was fooled a bit on that pitch but dunked it into center field' vibe, not the 'hit hard but right at third and they turn the double play" vibe.

A lot of the frustration with Vlad was the 80 hit tool label given to him by Baseball America. I think it may have been the first time they gave anyone that rating for hit tool. Correct me if I am wrong but "80" tools are really rare. 80 hit tool, combined with minor league numbers, combined with 4 months of 'prime Judge/Pujols" level in 2021 gave fans a mental image of what Vlad could be and led to frustrations when he is not that. Last 2 games have been what I picture 80 hit tool being. 110 mph 25 degree no doubt homeruns, mixed in with also being productive when not hitting the ball as hard because launch angle was good. Like 80 hit tool is both elite exit velocity and also adjusting and using elite hand eye to hit a soft line drive when fooled a bit, instead of rolling over and grounding out. So he has 80 hit tool but so far maybe needs to be viewed like any other 80 tool. Like a guy could have 80 speed but not always be able to take advantage of it in a game. Awesome to see Vlad be 80 hit tool Vlad for 2 playoff games.

It might depend on whether they think Bieber or Gausman is easier for the other team to plan for. Also might depend on what their analytics say about where Bieber is on his rehab and how his stuff is playing with more rest. Don't have a horse in the race here so not saying one or the other is the right choice, just that they probably have some nerds crunching a bunch of data. If their data says Beiber with long rest is back to 2022 Bieber and there is a risk Gausman could tip his pitches could go with Beiber.

Hard to believe he is really that stupid. On the old board I was harder on him than anyone but it mostly had to do with his ground ball tendencies and the risk that they would totally derail his career (like Jayson Heyward who through age 21 was as good as Vlad with dynamite minor league numbers as a teenager). Seems like he picks up a lot of details. Like if someone has a milestone like Kirk's first stolen base he picks up on that stuff right away. Or I remember the time he let a popup drop for a double play... Probably tough for the coaching staff. If you try and unlock more power do you risk messing up other ways? I half jokingly said he should try and strikout more.... Did Aaron Judge have the highest strike-out rate ever for a batting title winner this year? What's the deal with these high k very productive guys. Low swing rate and always A swing? Like if they guess wrong they swing and miss and don't adjust and get weak contact like Vlad seems to sometimes....

His comps are also Eddie Murray, Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper (3 of the top 6 on bbref). Harper also had a crazy season at 22 but a lot of seasons with a sub .500 slugging too. Eugene Saurez is not a great all around hitter but a power hitter and went 49 homers in 2019, down to 22 (in 162 games) in 2023, but back up to 49 this year. Vlad didn't hardly walk or homer the last 3 weeks. Maybe his goal next year should be 100/120. 100 walks 120 ks. Weird goal to k-more but I think he is the best hitter with below 100ks. The other really good hitters are 150 ks (Judge, Ohtani, even Freeman ks more, Schwarber).

Only other times I remember things coming down to the last day day was 1990 and 2021. Both times needing other teams to lose. Wait. Of course 1987. Since they created the 5 team division the Yankees have won it 17 times, Red Sox 5, Rays 4, Orioles 3 and Blue Jays 1. The only Toronto front office team to win the American League East in the Wild Card era is the team of Paul 'Track Team' Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos. After their track team did not win they traded everybody else. Beeston and Anthopoulos were loved by the fans and they loved the fans. Beeston loved the fans so much he refused to hold Saturday night games, just to make sure everyone would be back for Saturday Evening Barbeque. Anothopoulos was so loved, the fans all went to Baltimore to chant his name as the 200+ run differential Blue Jays won the division with a 15-2 victory on Wednesday. The next 5 days Cliff Pennington and Dalton Pompey got to play. Whatever you think of Shapiro he did listen to Beeston about the Saturday games and gets everyone home early enough. And he also got one of the prospects traded at the 2015 deadline back, elite closer Jeff Hoffman. Maybe he should have got Matt Boyd back instead. The team of Shapiro and Atkins, sometimes known as Shatkins is not exactly loved by all, but today they have a chance to win the division and get the best win total since 94. For a while it looked like they might win on Wednesday too until they started getting beat 2-1 and then 20-1 then 2-1 again. The run differential is like 70 or something, but they have a chance today to surpass the 2015 win differential.

Kind of funny how this team is the complete opposite of the 2021 team. 2021 team 8 games below expectations, this team 6 games above. 2021 team was seemingly full of generational stars with MVP near triple crown level Vlad, a 45 homer 2nd basemen, a fast 6 bbrefWAR Bo, peak Teoscar Hernandez and prime George Springer. 2025 team has Eric Hosmer level Vlad, Ernie Clement as the second basemen, a slow Bo with broken knees that can no longer play, peak Nathan Lukes, and past-prime George Springer but somehow rejuvinated back 5 years to prime. 2025 team had Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, 10kper 9 Alec Manoah, Jose Berrios sitting at 95. 2025 team has just released Alec Manoah, disabled Jose Berrios, but I guess hoping Trey Yesavage is 2021 Alec Manoah. 2021 Jordan Romano had exactly 1/2 the ERA and 1/2 the homeruns compared to Jeff Hoffman. Yet last Saturday of the season 2021 Jays had one improbable path to a 5 game playoff series, they needed to win out, needed help from the Nationals or Rays, then would have needed to win a tie breaker, then a wild card game. This year they already have a 3 game series locked and multiple paths to a 5 game series. Playoffs are mostly luck but one thing I do think is you don't know exactly how good a team was until the next season. Like what if Yesavage is really good, Beiber is recovered from TJ, Hoffman hasn't really lost it, Santander is still good, Vlad's power hasn't really disappeared, Barger is getting better, Fluharty is good, etc. Don't know any of that for sure until next year. So it's like the opposite of 2021. 2021 team wasn't good as good as we thought as many players looked a bit better than they were long term. 2025 team could be better than at first glance depending on long term true talent levels.

One of the great threads on the old board was the send Vlad to Indy Ball thread. He is slumping lately but overall he is having a John Olerud like season. According to baseball reference he is the Jays best player. I understand that most here like fangraphs better, but they aren't far apart, but bref likes his defense better for some reason. John Olerud was platooned, sat for Jacob Brumfield against a righty then sent to the NY Mets for seasons like this. He often didn't get 23 homers and 83 rbis on account of sitting 25% of the time so got 17 and 65 instead and CIto got mad that he couldn't even drive in 80. Point is Vlad's power, on base, rbi rate are exactly the same as what got Olerud in the dog-house. On the old board I mentioned Olerud and the 90s Jays far too much, so I risk starting off here with the same mistake. However this is relevant. Last night John Schneider sounded almost like Cito or Murph. He didn't say pull dat ball I don't think, but he said something close. This was the mistake they made with Olerud. Trying to make him into Joe Carter instead of a better version of himself. Guerrero has huge power potential, but if for some strange reason he can't ever reach it again, but could be 97 to 2002 John Olerud should the Jays just go with that? It would be a 5 WAR player worth the 35 million a year I think. I don't know. He is in a huge slump lately and obviously has to be better, but what if better is .320 with a lot of walks, opposite field singles and 25 homer power? Why not try to get him back to that ?

I haven't posted on the new board yet. I wasn't the most positive poster on the previous iterations of this group so figured no reason to bring negativity to this new and better place, especially since the season was going so well until the last week. The Vlad/Bo iteration of the Blue Jays has not only NOT won a play off game, but have not one an important series second half of September (unless you count winning a series against the Yankees in 2020 to secure the Covid playoff spot). Everyone loves to think the 2021 team would have gone on a deep playoff run, but conveniently forget the reason they didn't go on a playoff run was because they lost late September series to Tampa Bay and NY Yankees. For those of us who positivity doesn't come easily it feels like the goose is cooked and the Bo/Vlad Blue Jays will not ever get past the wild card round or even win a playoff game. However In the spirit of this new board, that is a more polite and positive place I would like to bring up some positive outcomes that could happen the next week. 1. Good chance the end is quick. Lose 4-1 or something to Crochet Tuesday and 5-2 Wednesday. That just seems too obvious. So likely the fates have worse in store, like getting to Crochet, leading 5-1 than Hoffman gives up a grand slam. However if the obvious quick end happens it will be less painful than a big blown lead. 2. Next weeks games might be at Fenway. This will spare more pain in person. 3. If at Rogers Center tickets might be cheap. 4. Can look forward to the offseason and being mentioned in the last 3 teams in on Munetaka Murakami before he signs with the Yankees. 5. This new board does seem much more civil with petty rivalries kept at bay. Some of us from the old board would find perverse humor in a Seattle/Boston ALCS. 6. Bo is likely gone so if it is indeed a "Bo/Vlad Blue Jays never win a playoff game curse" that is over. 7. We are all positive people so if the Red Sox convince Bo to DH, and he wins the batting title and the world series for them Paul Molitor style, we will still cheer and be happy that Bo finally won a playoff game. 8. The bar is low to save the season. If the Jays actually won like a single playoff game. Like game 2 of the ALWC 8-5 but lost the series then it would be like winning the World Series. The 'can't win a playoff game' monkey would be off their backs and everyone would have positive vibes going into the off-season.