Olerud363.354

Not trolling at all. They tried to hit Vlad second multiple times since 2021. He doesn't hit as well and the experiment ends after a few weeks. They tried for the first 70 games or so this year. I like Lukes, I even like Hoffman and regardless whether you think Lukes should play ahead of Santander or not he probably shouldn't hit second. In game 7 the closer spot and the 2nd spot in the lineup killed us. And part of the issue with Lukes second is the risk Straw ends up there late in the game (which he did). Most games these things don't burn you. But in the most critical game of the season it did. Mookie and Lucas hit about the same regular season and World Series. People keep making jokes that now Mookie is a glorified slap hitter and shadow of his former self, but Lukes hitting at the same level is fine. Mookie got moved down in the lineup and everyone thought it was a good move. Nathan Lukes performed about the same but still hit second games 6 and 7. In retrospect Vlad was great hitting second in LA, so maybe they should have taken the opportunity to keep him there games 6 and 7. Going forward need to consider the second spot in the lineup and the closer spot when constructing the roster. This could be getting Vlad comfortable hitting second. This could be getting Hoffman back to 2024 form. This could be signing Bo and hitting him second. Or Barger if he keeps taking steps forward. Can't have second spot with a lower OPS then closer has OPS against. Dodgers made adjustment in World Series to prevent that.

Could we do a Gord Ash Roger Clemens style trade? Jose Berrios, Mason Fluharty, Joey Loperfido ... for ... Skubal! I jest. Ash traded 9 WAR or so of Clemens for about 6 WAR over 3 players and those 3 actually out-wared Clemens in 1999. Ash kind of liked to trade Major leaguers for their replacements (like Mondesi in return for Shaun Green). If Berrios was healthy could potentially do Berrios/Lukes/Little or something if Tigers wanted major league players. Of course that is ridiculous given what Berrios is, and maybe ridiculous even Berrios was at his best. Just that there was a time when trades like that happened.

Another offseason question is who is the closer late next year? Even if Hoffman starts as closer what is the plan if he has a .750 OPS against again? You can't let him do that again. If he has normal closer numbers go with him sure.

So off-season Roster question is this. Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit second or does it mess with his mind too much? Seemed fine in game 4 and 5. Need to figure out 1-2-3. Springer Bo Vlad? Springer Barger Vlad? Springer Tucker Vlad? Does anyone really think Springer Lukes/Schneider Vlad is the way to go again?

In game 7 the second spot was 0 for 5 with a sac bunt. The weakness of Lucas a center piece of your offense is also that he doesn't play the whole game often and then you end up with Straw in the second spot.

Many teams have close to this even if they don't have Sota and Hosh Hader. It's not just replacing Lukes with Soto. It's lineup configuration. Like hitting Vlad second, Lucas 7th and working on developing I guess an at least average closer. Of course not every World Series team has a .900 OPS second hitter, and .500 OPS (against) closer, but I bet hardly any have .700/.750. Two cases close to the heart In the 7th game of the World Series the LA Dodgers used a .900 OPS hitter 2nd (Will Smith) and a late inning pitcher Yamamoto, with a .536 OPS against. It's like using Eugenia Suarez and Crawford on the left side of your infield. It's the kind of thing that doesn't hurt you until it does. Like they don't NOT make 10 plays a week, that would add up to a couple hundred runs in a year, but people were arguing there were "several" plays they didn't make in the ALCS, which could be true if the right circumstances collide with them. In game 7 Will Smith crushed several balls that Nathan Lukes (and Schneider and Straw) didn't. Other case 1993 Roberto Alomar .900 OPS, 1993 Duane Ward .530 OPS against. Jeff Hoffman/Nathan Lukes was a weakpoint that eventually burnt us, just like some argued Suarez/Crawford defense was a weakpoint that burnt them.

Tony Batista was next level with a career 89 wRC+ but lots of 30 homer 100 rbi seasons. The only advanced thing Gord Ash ever did was put Batista on waivers when he tried to send him down to the minors in 2001 (after a 41 110 season). Crazy stuff. Baltimore claimed him, but Ash and his team correctly assessed Batista's skill level (after failing to do it for similar players 'cough' old Joe Carter 'cough' for several years). Speaking of which Joe Carter and Salvadore Perez according to fangraphs have the same life time WAR and same wRC+. How that works out is a bit hard to figure. Joe Carter at catcher should be better than Joe Carter in left field. I guess Joe Carter played more games so got a bit more WAR, and Perez does not get any defense love from fangraphs. Plus to be accurate Perez is 2 WAR ahead... One would figure in a couple years Perez will build his lead over Carter... but this type of player can put up negative WAR over their last seasons so maybe Perez will tie Carter yet.

Lukes didn't have a great World Series and I think Lukes and Hoffman were the weak points in game 7. Hitters hit better against Hoffman than Lukes hit. Lukes hit .255 .323 .407 and hitters against Hoffman were .213 .298 .447. No team perfect. Next year second hitter needs higher OPS than closer. Many teams have closer with .500 OPS against, and second hitter .900 OPS. Edit: Obviously above statement not exactly True except for Mets when Sota hit second. However Jays could probably accomplish that by hitting Vlad Second and improving the closer. So that is stat I will watch. Second hitter OPS, and closer OPS against, and it needs to be better.

Dodgers strike out way more than the Jays and employ Teoscar Hernandez. If it came down to a healthy Lukes vs a healthy Santander Dodgers wouldn't make the decision based on any philosophy just on maximizing wins. Just don't want to see the Jays get to attached to the 'contact first' philosophy at the expense of making poor roster decisions. Santander is already signed for 5 years, and if he can provide 2 or 3 WAR for a couple more years need to take advantage of that. I could also see him being done. Lot of injuries. Just want the team to make the Santander/Lukes decision on health, not get married to Lukes because he is a contact hitter.

Yes to SHUT DOWN CLOSER. Whether somone new or getting Hoffman back to 2024 form (if that is possible). Ideally want a closer with below .300 slugging against. Mistake to get married to any philosophy. LA didn't have extreme low whiff philosophy and beat us with solo homers in 3 of their 4 wins. Anthony Santander is younger than Nathan Lukes by 3 months (hard to believe). They are close to the same fWAR/162 but Santander can do it without a platoon mate. Healthy Santander could provide for one Roster spot what a Lukes / Platoon Partner does for 2. We are already owe Satander the money. Do you guys think Santander is permanently broken? If he could get back to 2023 level need to play him and probably trade Lukes. If he is broken beyond repair then keep Lukes,.

Addison seems to be on a Josh Donaldson development path. If he got there, or even Josh Donaldson light the great thing is his age 26-30 seasons will be controlled. Defensive stats I've seen also show him a better third basemen then right fielder, so a little bit better hitting and full time at third could maybe lead a 4 WAR player. Unrealistic to expect MVP seasons like Donaldson, so JD light.

Right. So many things could have gone wrong earlier. I think the first must have win came off of a Varsho Grand Slam. He grounds out there (like he did Saturday) maybe none of this happens because we don't get past the Red Sox in WC, or we are the ones with our pitching messed up (not the Yankees) in ALDS.

Honestly don't to mean to mock fans who are taking this hard with my post about the Rangers/Arizona Diamondbacks comparison. It is genuinely the absolute closest a team has got to winning the World Series without winning the World Series. By any measure one of the closest and toughest sports losses ever in a championship. Some examples out there of other rough s***, but not sure anyone has ever both given the lead 2 outs away and then had a bottom of the 9th like we did. I guess different people find different things hard. I genuinely do think the franchises who have gone through this kind of become more interesting franchises than if they had lost the same World Series 4-1. Like the Boston Red Sox would not be as interesting a franchise if the 1986 World Series was ho-hum. Financially more money to be made with more games and a closer series. So this makes the team more money then any other loss scenario. Now the effect of this on fans and even players? Don't know. Could be some issues there I guess based on what I am reading, and does make me think do they need to consider trading guys like Hoffman and Varsho.

Happiness level (lowest 0 highest 100) Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamond Backs in joke world Series 4-1. Fans Happiness 100 - lives perfect, go to church, clean state. Remember so many legendary moments from 2023 World Series. So happy. Obey God. Watch their 5 game win once a month or more. Remember when we won 5-0 at Chase Field to win it all? Remember when we held Gabriel Moreno, who was red-hot 0/3? f***KK WE RULE!!!!!!! Toronto Blue Jays lose nut-crunching random crazy s*** to 500 million dollar legendary best team ever Los Angeles Dodgers - Fan Happinesss 0! Team hit majestic homeruns off Ohtani but just can't beat his friend and too much random bad luck. Jays fans -- kill selves. No reason to live. Worst thing ever. Please Mr. Texas Ranger fan can I touch your World Series victory hat you got after beating Arizona....

We are not the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills lost 4 super-bowls at the same time we won two World Series. They can't even get back to the Superbowl now and there nut-crunchers take place in earlier rounds. We are the New York Mets or the Boston Red Sox, or the Philadelphia Phillies or the Texas Rangers with now a particularly nut-crunching World Series story to tell, just like all of those teams (except the Mets) have to tell.

What if we go 104-58 next year with a 300 run differential. However they slump at the wrong time and go down 3-1 in an ALDS with fluky but not totally gut-wrenching losses and the 14 next playoff games never happen. What I mean is would some scenario where a really good team goes out early be worse? People still feel a lot of pain from 'what could have been' for the 2021 team (more than 2022 and 2023 it seems).

ALCS 2003 game 7? Especially for those fans who remember 1986. 2011 Rangers. 2016 Indians. Literally speaking 2 outs a way, 1 inch away this was the closest ever and not getting it. The more I read fan reactions I do become a bit more worried. Like is this bad enough that they need to reconfigure the team? Trade Varsho and Hoffman. Don't resign any of our own free agents (but still spend equivalent money), just get some new guys in the clubhouse who didn't experience this. Very close equivalent pain has been experienced before. Especially some of the tough LCS losses where the teams never got the World Series even. Life went on. However is this so extreme that special care has to be taken when preparing the team for next year?

Like there will be a cool Blue pennant, next to the Wild Card pennants saying "American League Champion". Maybe when people see the 9 flags together, some AL East only, the 2 world Series, the ALDS flags, the Wild card and one "American League Champions", that one will seem more special than it does right now.

It honestly depends how you view life and probability. A bad April with injuries moves the World Series odds from say 5-10% to almost 0. It moves playoff odds from say 70% (if expected to have a good team) to 5% or something. It takes away 5-6 months of contending baseball in the summer months. What happened Saturday moved World Series odds from 93% to 0 in an hour or so. Totally get how crazy painful that is. The level of pain people are experiencing I think it depends how important the ring is to fans compared to other accomplishments After Saturday you still have an American League Championship and one of the greatest homeruns ever in the Springer Dinger. Part of this must be cultural. I became a baseball fan in 1988 but that was only 19 years into division play. So it was like 2006 and Troy Glaus is to now. The American and National League pennants were historically almost as important as the World Series because you never even saw the National League and for most of baseball history the Pennant was a result of a season's worth of work, and then even the 1969-1993 period Pennants were really important. There weren't multiple rounds of playoff series and no interleague play so winning your league in the ALCS had more importance. Like when American League and National League were really distinct, winning the League was more of a thing, and I think I still feel that vibe.

We are into offseason 2026 and every single good thing that happens is just a potential bad thing that will crush your sole. I remember off-season leading into 2013 was so exciting. Soul was crushed basically in April when Reye's got injured it was apparent Dickey was not going to ever repeat at Cy Young level. Jays were 9.5 games out on April 28th. Late April 2013 in my opinion was one of the most soul crushing times in Jays history. So much excitement for 2013 and not a single good moment, while watching John Farrell win a World Series. That was brutal. Soul was crushed early October 2022 with Mariners dancing in Rogers Center after 8-1 comeback. Soul was crushed mid October 2015 with 2 iconic Bautista homeruns made meaningless (agree the Bo homerun will be a foot note, but the Springer-Dinger like the bat-flip will live forever). Soul is always crushed in painful ways just very late and sharp this time. I've always said fan reactions follow the probabilities so going from 95% chance of winning World Series to 0 is pretty crushing. At same time still 100% chance of AL East and American League Championship and Ernie Clement hit record, so total endorphins for season highest ever, but loss of endorphins fastest and most dramatic ever. Sometimes like maybe 2019 -- not really crushed because no expectations and just excited for future. But most years soul crushed.

Ichiro and Ken Griffey Jr. have 6 playoff wins each. Davis Schneider has 10 playoff wins. Who has more playoff wins? Seattle Mariners since 1977 or Myles Straw's teams (probably didn't play in every game, but I think Myles has more.... it's close). Ernie Clement has the all time record for post season hits. Seeing all the publicity we are getting for this series I am more and more convinced that other than winning, losing the most painful and longest way is the best outcome. 1. Each playoff game is a tonne of cash for rogers. The numbers viewing the final innings were absolutely insane and probably add a bit to future payrolls as compared to losing in LA in 5. 2. Counterpoint - Having half the country watch the final inning scarred them all and they may never want to watch baseball again. 3. Counterpoint-counterpoint - To make sure point 2 doesn't happen Rogers almost certainly will spend more than if we had lost in LA in 5. Or even lost 5-1 Saturday. Not a tonne more, but if they really feel they scarred people (and hopefully professional psychologists will consult and make sure Rogers Brain trust understand the scars) they may just feel they have to really spend, really create another good team to fix the damage that game caused. Like they can't probably control the randomness of the playoffs, but make a good run at 100 wins just to help the poor people who watched Saturday.

The more you dive into this, the more insane it is. Miguel Rojas was horrible against righties, and there is no reason I can see he was even playing instead of Alex Call or even Kim. Or even Pages who sure, was struggling, but is a 4 WAR player, who hit like Teoscar Hernandez last year (bit better then 2025 Teo, but about that kind of hitter). A great center fielder. Is about at Daulton Varsho level as a player. Rojas is bad against righties last year, bad lifetime. Putting Rojas in was a bad move on every level that I can see. He shouldn't have been playing. And he hits a World Series changing homer off a righty. 1 homer off a righty this year. Career .344 slugging against Righties. Was it God? Was it power out to get us? Was it just pure bad awful luck. No. Unfortunately we have to look at the other side of it and while on a nice homerless streak in the playoffs, Jeff Hoffman had about the same homer rate against righties and lefties in 2025. Rojas wasn't facing a dominant closer. We had gotten a way with that most of the playoffs and got burnt. Righties hit Hoffman .205 .284 .400 last year. Lefties were even worse and overall he gave up a .450 slugging. To put that in perspective Andrez Munoz had a slugging against of .222. Most good closers are around .300. So while at first glance it seems some astronomically fluke thing that Rojas hit the homer given his split, not really a total fluke given Hoffman's splits. Closer with .300 or below slugging against should be on the must have list for 2026. (there is a chance that could be still Hoffman but have to identify the reason for the high homer rate and fix it moving forward if possible)

Had not re-watched that at bat and on second look pitch 4 looks like a breaking pitch outside. You are right. Now another haunting image to mess with our minds the rest of our lives. Live I assumed it was fastball outside strike...

Was it ball 4? He missed by a fraction of an inch of ending the game. Great 3-0 swing just didn't quite square it up. What does the data say on 3-0 swing results vs 3-1 count? Even if a ball it was just outside I give him the benefit of the doubt that you just can't be that perfect. So would want to know 3-0 swing results vs 3-1 count results to assess the swing decision.

It totally sucks that we lost by an inch. The thinking that it "would be better" if we lost by more is wrong though. 2014 Royals are a good example. Now 2016 Indians did not get back. Losing in the most devastating way is probably better than losing any easier way. Not sure what the best way to approach the question is, but I don't think there is evidence that losing a close Playoff Series has any long term negative effects on the franchise. Now the fans? Maybe some of them will be in deep depression for months I guess. Not enough World Series to get a lot of data, but if you also include other playoff Series there are lots of examples. 2003 Red Sox lost a horrible game 7 of ALCS came back. 1995 Yankees lost a bad ALDS before their dynasty. 2016 Indians did not make it back but won 100+ the next year. 2003 cubs lost the crazy Bartman ALCS and I guess wondered in the wilderness for a decade a bit, but 13 years later they won it. Now of course LOSING is bad. The argument I am making is that LOSING in epic devastating fashion is no worse long term, and probably better in terms of franchise lore, then Dodgers clinch with 5-1 Ohtani Gem in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Or Jays go 2-2 to close regular season and 2 and done against Red Sox.