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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    I was there a couple of years ago. Nice enough. I liked Coors Field, Fenway, Updated Rogers Center, Anaheim Stadium, and Seattle better in terms of ballparks I've been to the last few years.... Not sure why. I want to say the seats in the lower bowl weren't super close to the field. That is the one thing I love about the Rogers center renovation. I think they really nailed the angles in the lower bowl. Like you can get a seat down the line but feel like your right on top of the infield.
  2. Olerud363.354
    Since showing up at 280 pounds in 2020 after being on lockdown for a couple of months he has stabalized the weight nicely. He is now a modern day right handed hitting Mark Grace. Slender. Great line drive swing. Good first base defense. On pace for 10 homers. Which is fine given his other skills.
  3. Olerud363.354
    If it was me I'd do that for sure. Yesavage looks fine. Move him up 50. Shoulder injuries are ussually a couple of years, but I'll be optimistic for Crochet and have him back in August and ding him just 100 innings.
  4. Olerud363.354
    I am Aldman. I have Billions. I love AI. AI is awesome. No jobs for commoners. All done by AI now. Except one job left. Guy who adjusts Crochets playing time manually. Who will do that? Can we teach AI to do that so we have no jobs left at all? On a more serious note lots of bias if some guy manually adjusting playing time. Over a couple of days they could move Yesavage's innings up by 50 and Crochets down by 100. Not saying that happened but it could.
  5. Olerud363.354
    Fangraphs much happier with Jays then just 48 hours ago. Crazy. 48 hours ago it was 40% chance Red Sox make playoffs, 33% Jays. Now 40% Jays 25% Sox. Is that crazy? Probably not. It was a 4 game swing plus I am not sure how they model injuries. Like Yesavage/Crochet. Like does the model know Crochet is on the DL now and Yesavage off? How do they project a guy like Yesavage with limited MLB data (lots of minor league of course). How do they project 'sore shoulder' when you have no idea if it's 2 weeks or 2 years?
  6. Olerud363.354
    1990s Blue Jays 1. Devon White (fastest player) 2. Roberto Alomar (bat control and good) 3. Paul Molitor (best all around hitter) 4. Joe Carter (best Power hitter. .300 on base) 5. John Olerud/JPat Tabler (high on base guy, low on base guy platoon). 6. Candy Maldonado (but technically he didn't overlap with Molitor) 7. Manuel Lee/Tony Fernnandez (bad switch hitter 92, good switch hitter 93) 8. Kelly Gruber/Ed Sprague - third base 9. Pat Borders (catcher) Good teams. Good lineup construction. Got 800 runs out of 900 run teams. No foolin around with the crazy s*** they do these days.
  7. Olerud363.354
    IQ - 104, emotional IQ 72. Weight high. Blood pressure high Eyesight poor. Diabetes almost certainly. Why is he not on Ozempic? Or is he and he was far worse before?
  8. Olerud363.354
    Laika - 490k a year (got raise since I last posted), boss never bothers him except occasionally in the afternoon to go golf or watch Day Games at the sports bar and decide who to lay-off. Lots of time to browse Baseball Savant and scouting blogs all day. Rest of board - 65k a year (decreasing often so less then last time I posted), boss always on their case, no time for savant, many spelling errors and typos because have to write posts in 11 seconds when boss looks away.
  9. Olerud363.354
    Laika Bought NVIDIA 2017 TRAD WIFE 8 kids 450,000k a year job which allows him time to post here all day with no pushback, while TRAD WIFE is taking care of kids. IQ = 126 (above average), EIQ (emotional IQ) = 158 exceptional political skills LAYOFFS - will survive always and get raise as others leave. Rest of board (on average, some better, some worse) Sold NVIDIA 2017 (smart enough to realize it is good stock in 2010, but too chicken to hold after making 12k) Divorced or never married - 0.8 kids on average (some a few, some none) 78k a year job, 10 hours a day with boss constantly looking at their screens and yells at them, so post on their phone. IQ = 142 (way above average), EIQ (emotional IQ) = 84 (barely functional). LAYOFFS - unemployed often, first out the door
  10. Olerud363.354
    I say get him up to New Hampshire ASAP. His confidence is high right now so good time to get up to a new level.
  11. Olerud363.354
    Happy to be wrong about Yesivage, at least last night... If he is healthy that is a big difference maker.
  12. Olerud363.354
    Can't remember who hit homers off him in the regular season, but Varland had a 4.94 ERA for Jays in regular season. Around 4.00 in the playoffs, but in the playoffs he faced middle of the order a lot. Judge, Jazz, Polanco and Cal Raleigh all hit big homers off him to win or potentially win games.. The Jays 2025 season just so improbable. Varland had a tough job. Opposition best hitters every night, inevitably Judge/Raleigh will get you if facing them every night. At the same time, he gave some big homers that could have been classics had the other team won... but Jays came through in ALDS and ALCS.
  13. Olerud363.354
    I think the issue is that collectively the backups have something a 50 OPS+ and are running .220 on base percentages... part of the road to a good season is the guys that suck just sort of suck, and put 80 OPS+ .280 on base not 10 OPS+. Not saying it's Popkin's fault, just that the hope is a good hitting coach gets everyone to their so called true talent level. Get the back up catchers up to .220 .280 .350 or something. Could all be just random of course.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Something changed. Springer changed himself? Springer randomly found a new batting stance? Springer found a better amphetamine ?? (not implying illegal, some legal red bull like thing, taken at the right time, right amount of sleep, could help). Springer was injured in 2023 and 2024 and still injured in 2025 but not as much? It's all just random? I mention this a couple of times a year, but my all time favorite baseball article was a Bill James article where he simulated thousands of seasons from players just to see what the best and worst they would do was. For Wade Boggs it was any where from .250 to .400. He actually somehow had a .250 season in his mid 30s but rebounded to .340. Anyway either it is random, or there is a reason.
  15. Olerud363.354
    Cynic in me thinks he's injured still and won't pitch well or last long in the Majors. Schneider was kind of luke warm on a couple of comments to the media "we want to make sure he's OK", "He assures me he's feeling fine", "Want to make sure when he's up, he's up to stay". Kind of reading between the lines they are not convinced he is healthy. Dominates Yankees and Dodgers in the most pressure packed games possible against elite lineups... but gets hammered in St. Lucy and Scranton (or wherever it was). Yeah I know rehap assignment, but if a guy is healthy these are usually a breeze... 6 innings, 2 hits, maybe a homer, 2 walks 7 ks... struggles going 3 innings against minor hitters do not predict good things tonight... Hopefully I am full of s***.
  16. Olerud363.354
    League adjusting to their approach? I always joked about Mattingly's approach not really working for most, except maybe Bo. Hey you just need Mattingly's hitting tips and 99.99999th percentile hand eye coordination. Popkins was a minor league journeyman so one could guess might relate a bit more to the Davis Schneiders, Nathan Lukes and Brandon Venezuala's of the world and the struggles they could face.. Sadly this year getting nothing extra (or really nothing at all so far) out of those guys.
  17. Olerud363.354
    The logic is wrong though because just because an 8-12 already happened doesn't decrease the chance of another one happening. And an 8-12 while the division leader goes 13-7 puts you 5 games back and very difficult to overcome when at best team was projected to be about even with the other teams. And yes, Jays came back from a big hole last year, but that's just happens to be the 1 of 10 which it happens. Jays had a good team on paper but slow starts in 86, 88, 89, 95, 97, 98, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2024, 2025. I count 14 years this has happened, and came back all the way to win a division 3 times. Which might even be more than you'd expect. Fangraphs has it as 1/20 to win the division. Playoffs chances with the extra wild card are higher.. 25 to 30 percent I guess. Jays playoff, division and world series chances last in AL East now. Fangraphs likes even the Red Sox better. Actually seems historically Jays have done this more than you'd expect. Good on team on paper, excited for the season, playoff odds destroyed 4 weeks in.
  18. Olerud363.354
    So much data these days that whatever worked won't work for long as the other team will counter with their game planning. Obviously lots of injuries too. I guess probably more the latter, see what happens if they get a healthy team.
  19. Olerud363.354
    Schneider - Hoffman, you will be pitching only if it is 10-1 or 1-10. Hoffman - "Sounds good. I am not the best closer right now, but if I pitch good in the 10-1 games maybe you will reconsider me." Schneider - LIttle and Rodiriquez. You are going to Buffalo. Little and Rodriquez - "OK skip, there are worse places, we will try to learn better control in a stress free environment and hopefully see you all soon." Schneider - Lauer, you will have an opener but a great opportunity to pad your ERA and vulture a win. Lauer "You die *******. I will not suffer such an indignity. Go to hell. Straight to hell. I kick your fat ass and stat-boys Shitkins soft ass too"
  20. Olerud363.354
    I like to keep an eye on career minor league stats. He's .242 .376 .456. That will slowly go up if he keeps on demolishing the upper minors. People have good things to say about him I think. Like he hit the ball hard last year.
  21. Olerud363.354
    A lot of players that are everyday players in some form, and didn't go to College are 20 year olds in high A. Randal Grichuk was 20 in high A and hit .298. Trent Grisham was 20 in high A and hit .220. He hits .215 in the majors. Which could work for Nimmala if he has defense and base running. Trent has 14 WAR. Everyone if they didn't go to College and are destined to make the majors are 20 in high A... OK maybe not everyone. Anyway send Nimmala to that band-box in New Hampshire so we can find out if he is capable of padding stats in a hitters environment.
  22. Olerud363.354
    Same concern with Brandon Valenzuela... who is not a 20 year old, and it seems hit .299 as a 20 year old but his average fell apart in the upper minors and at 25 through almost 600 minor league games stands at .240 Kirk is .320 minors .267 majors, Heineman .278 minors, .238 majors... if I trained an AI off just those two it would predict Valenzuela would hit .200. Steamer is an AI trained off of all... it predicts Valenzuela will hit .203
  23. Olerud363.354
    Guys tend to lose some off their minor league batting average but gain power in the majors. Wiley Adames hit .270 .365 .414 in the minors, and .244 .320 .440 in the majors. Paul DeJong hit .270 in the minors. Randal Grichuk hit .270 in the minors. Bradley Zimmer .260 in the minors. Miles Straw hit .290 in the minors. Steamer has Nimala hitting .188 right now. Sounds about right given minor league numbers. Very hard to believe someone with a .228 minor league average can succeed. Argument for success 1. Very young. Will improve to a better average in his later minor league years. 2. Only 200 games the .228 average is random. 3. Injured last year. 4. Dunedin and Vancouver bad hitter parks. 5. Will hit .350 .450 .700 in New Hampshire hitting 2nd in front of Keys (.350 .450 .700 too). OK. Might as well send him to New Hampshire tomorrow to get his confidence up.
  24. Olerud363.354
    Got to give more prestige to the vulture role. Full time opener would go 0-3 2.44. If hypothetically full time opener 0 wins because would never go 5 innings. Full time starter (mediocre stuff) would go 4-11 5.44 because they would get crushed by top of the order 3rd time through. but... vulture (mediocre stuff) might go 11-4 3.55, because they'd be used more strategically. Miss the middle of the order first and 3rd time, but get 15 batters (middle of the order once), and no worries about 5 innings for win, because they come in second inning.
  25. Olerud363.354
    I seriously don't get it. There used to be like 140 inning long man occasional starter relieve role where guys could go 12-3 easy vulturing wins. Is like Arb against this kind of thing? Or is it just misplaced confidence? Like Lauer knows it is better to be 12-3, 3.55 as long man that faces middle of order only once, he know this is better then 4-11 5.44 with 32 starts... however he THINKS he'll go 15-5 in 32 starts.
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