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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    Option 1 - Vlad returns to 2021 form, Kaz returns to 2 weeks ago form - win 9-2 every day Option 2 - lose every day for a bit. (not good option) Option 3 - Varland pitches 100 inning 150 strike-outs. This could possibly work for 3 years or so before his arm falls off.
  2. Olerud363.354
    I'm on the record several times that while the race for the division was over April 3rd or so, they will become first 79 win team to win World Series and provided specific playoff predictions. Based on their improved play I now think they will win 80 games, thus not the first 79 win team to win the World Series, but still first sub .500 team. WC round - Blue Jays 80-82 over 'The As' (residing in Sacramento for now) 2-1 ALDS - Blue Jays 80-82 over Cleveland Guardians 90-72 3-1 ALCS - Blue Jays 80-82 over Tampa Bay Rays 110-52 4-1 World Series - Blue Jays 80-82 over Dodgers 95-67 4-2
  3. Olerud363.354
    That is crazy in a way. If the starter doesn't go 5 it goes to the reliever who most effective and I guess held the lead at a key point. Which Macko did, but Miles did more. I think the team should be able to designate the bulk guy, and the bulk guy gets the win if a) enters with the lead b) pitches most innings of any reliever, never gives up the lead, and no other reliever gives up the lead This would be honestly to keep guys like Lauer happy. Need those guys to vulture some wins to stop them from yapping about coming in, in the second. Like closer and setup man, 'bulk guy' should just become an esteemed role (even if it is more like 5th starter who we don't quite trust). Mix in some guys like Miles or Johny King... young or injury riddled with good arms who aren't up for 170 innings yet and maybe it does become esteemed.
  4. Olerud363.354
    Eloy 112 OPS+ average in majors. .300 .355 .493 in minors. 141 OPS+ high end best peak performance. Sosa 80 OPS+ average in major. 278 .320 .420 in minors. 100 OPS+ high end best peak performance.
  5. Olerud363.354
    Career 80 wRC+ and something like .278 .320 .420 in the minors which projects to pretty much exactly what he does in the majors.
  6. Olerud363.354
    Not complaining about the trade. I heard recently, I think from fangraphs, that they were down on Alan Roden, a very similar hitter to Horwitz, because they didn't think that type of profile would translate to the majors well. I think they are diving deeper, maybe too deep, into exit velocities, bat speed and other mechanical metrics, which teams are more and more. How else to explain the Lenyn Sosa experiment?
  7. Olerud363.354
    Horwitz - .878 minor league OPS, .790 MLB Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .945 minors .855 majors. Both lose 90 points off of minor league OPS. Despite massive differences in bat speed, exit velocity and tools, baseball reference casual fan stats scout still works for both. At least in this case.
  8. Olerud363.354
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/horwisp01.shtml Awesome to see Horwitz doing good. Really like the guy. He has the profile that fancy people like to say won't work. Kind of like Roden. But it does work, or at least just as often as any other profile. Not a clear fit for him here anyway. I guess maybe if we wanted a first basemen with a bit more pop we could use him.
  9. Olerud363.354
    Not that I am any kind of expert on this but seems like he isn't getting quite as much chase as last year, so getting behind in some counts, but is doing a good job hitting the edges of the strike zone. Might be a similar guy to Gausman, where it's a constant battle to make sure there are no tells between fastball and splitter.
  10. Olerud363.354
    Didn't Aaron Judge, Jazz, Polanco, and Cal Raleigh* all hit game changing/winning homeruns off him? I know Judge's was on that 99 mph fastball in for the most legendary clutch homerun of all time, can't remember what pitch Polanco, Jazz and Raleigh's pitch. * Springer unchanged that game 7
  11. Olerud363.354
    A hard needle for a big market to manage and it would depress the hell out of all of us. If they anywhere near WC3 they will either buy or hold. So would have to be like 45-60 at deadline, then go crazy and sneak in.
  12. Olerud363.354
    What happened before will happen again. Question is whether he now goes full Jayson Heyward, or goes back to good Vlad for some significant time periods.
  13. Olerud363.354
    I still think he is beat up or hands aren't right. Exit Vs still seem down, homer yesterday was 105 mph 365 feet. After the game he made an odd comment yesterday about his slump not being over until he hits one where he can just stand at the plate and watch it. He should be hitting a few balls over 112 every week... until I see that not convinced he's right.
  14. Olerud363.354
    Did not mean to imply you were hyping Williams. Just that people were a few years ago.
  15. Olerud363.354
    Toronto Blue Jays a.k.a. 2014 Kansas City Royals 2014 Kansas Royals had Eric Hosmer - 2026 Toronto Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Explain the difference??? You can't!
  16. Olerud363.354
    Updated with new modeling from Jays Center and predicted run differentials Predictions for Toronto Blue Jays (a.k.a. 2014 Kansas City Royals) vs New York Yankees (a.k.a. 1961 New York Yankees (Judge/Rice > Mantle/Maris) Jays Center: Jays sweep. 11-5 run differential Michael Kay: Yankees sweep. 44-5 run differential Olerud363: Yankees 3-1 25-14 run differential Fangraphs: Yankees 3-1 21-14 run differential
  17. Olerud363.354
    We have the team with the most homers and the most walks in the AL, against the team with the least walks. This is a mis-match on paper. Some may argue the Jays are the 2014/2015/ Kansas City Royals. If so they are doing it in reverse, last year they were the 2015 Kansas City Royals and just missed. This year they are the 2014 Kansas City Royals. A scrappy team with no walks and no power and no probable path to anything, the only road open right now is the Royals 2014 path. They make the playoffs with 83 wins or something and a bunch of fluky things happen. Predictions from the different modeling approaches. Jays Center Hive Mind - Jays win series 3-1 on their way to Kansas City 2014 style World Series appearance. Olerud363 - Bill James is not dumb. Walks and power are important. Yankees win series 3-1. Michael Kay - Justice will be served, In the end the righteous come out on top. Yankees sweep with 44 - 9 run differential. Fangraphs - Yankees are better team. Likely win series 3-1.
  18. Olerud363.354
    Second worst offense I have seen after 1997 and quite close actually. Many similarities Cease/Gausman are similar to Clemens/Hentgen Old George Springer is roughly similar to old Joe Carter (not exactly, but kind of albeit with more recent success?) Lenyn Sosa is similar to the right handed hitting nonsense the 1997 Jays would throw out (Brumfield, Juan Samuel) except worse. Last in on base percentage, last in walks is exactly what they did in 1997. We presume Shatkins, Schneider, Popkins are smarter than Gord Ash and Cito and can identify and try to fix.
  19. Olerud363.354
    1 triple. 0 homeruns in Vancouver in 25 games. 25 years old. 6'5" 260. Demoted from AA to A+ Minors are sad. Just a game of failure. People seemed excited about Williams a couple of years ago, big guy, hits ball far, but he's going backwards and not hitting ball far that I can see.
  20. Olerud363.354
    Blue Jays Playoff odds Blue Jays Message Board projection system (based on vibes) - 100% easy. Olerud363 projection system (done on napkin) - 20% 1 in 5 (by my count they are in a race with 10 teams for 2 wild card spots. I just go 2/10 and don't try to get too fancy projecting quality of team, I give White Sox a shot.) Fangraphs projection system (based on math and data analysis) - 37%
  21. Olerud363.354
    Doesn't hurt Sota, but probably hurts the runs scored just a tad. Plus Bichette 2, Sota 3 gives Bichette 18 more at bats a year. Imagine two players. One walks 100% of the time. The other homers 25% of the time exactly once a game. Neither do anything else. No one on the team does anything else ever (like a version of Blue Jays). If you hit homerun hitter second and walker 3rd the team scores 1 run a game. If you reserve them, 2 runs a game. Reality isn't that simple but I think the trend would hold. If you have an extreme on base guy, followed by a low on base guy extra base guy, on base guy should be in front.
  22. Olerud363.354
    That makes no sense. It should be the other way. In a good Sosa year Bichette could tie his Dad for 100 rbi season with -2 WAR. .220 .250 .290 12 homers 101 rbis
  23. Olerud363.354
    If that was it for Louise Varland great way to go out... only 25 pitches over 2 innings actually so less than he usually throws in 1 ... I wonder if not Rogers and Varland who is so half injured they needed Macko on stand by.
  24. Olerud363.354
    Hardest hit ball in quite a while. 108. Also very nice launch angle (for Vlad) -2 or something which is about 10 degrees higher than usual.
  25. Olerud363.354
    Never seen anything like this even in the worst of the Cito Gaston years. Jacob Brumfield is elite compared to Sosa.
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