Olerud363.354

Blue Jays built a commanding AL East lead with rotation of Gausman, Berrios, Bassit, Scherzer and Lauer.

He loses something when he gets out at second admiring a ball off the right field wall. He loses something when he gets out at second when he hits it 115 mph, 14 launch angle off left field wall. Does he lose anything when he stays at first admiring a ball off the right field wall? Justifiable if so. Does he lose anything if he stays at first with 115 mph, 14 launch angle off left field wall? Like he made the right decision but system pings him a bit. Is there even anything fancy here, or could you just list baserunning outs and Vlad would have 10 a year or something and it's just based on that, not on any fancy 'should have got to second on that ball' adjustments.

A bit of a tangent but do the Mets save 45 million on Bo Bichette if a strike? I know some players got big bonuses and stuff to bypass strike things (like Vlad might have 400 million bonus or something)... but is Bo protected from strike? Not good news for 2027 if Mets have multiple reasons to vote for the strike (bitterness, bad attitude, plus need to get out of Bo Bichette payments).

2027 homerun leaders (predicted) NA (non applicable season canceled because of Strike) 2026 Dodgers 112-50 3rd World Series victory in a row 2026 Mets 70-92 sadness - Mets ownership grumpy and bitter, cast tie breaking strike vote.

That would make him Vladdy Jackson, with lower k-rate and lower walk rate, Reggie did not win a homerun title young, but won a few after with 41, 39, 36 and 33. Those totals probably won't win homerun titles in the strange land of 2020s baseball. 2028 homerun leaders (predicted) 1. Murakami - White Sox 58 (221 ks) 2. Nick Kurtz - Las Vegas Athletics 56 (229 ks) 3. Aaaron (old) Judge - New York Yankees 49 (198 ks) .... 8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Toronto Blue Jays 38 (83 ks)

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 147, 146, 146, 144. 125 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. top RBAT+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 168, 163, 133, 133, 120 When you order it like that you can see they are comparable through age 26. Vlad has more variation. Manny raw numbers seems better because average team hit .260 .340 .450 or something back then. Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 27-31 - 186, 184, 174, 161, 158 Manny took it to the next level age 27-31

I posted this on the game thread but it's kind of cool so I'll post it here again. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Reggie Jackson have almost the same home run totals and same season to season variation between age 22 and 26 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml Both had a high 40s (Vlad 48 Reggie 47), both had a low 20s (both 23). Both had a 25 (well Vlad 26). Both had a 30 (well Reggie 29), both had exactly 32. Despite this Reggie isn't on Vlad's comparable list through age 26. Justin Upton who seems less comparable to me is. I guess they weight batting average, k-rate and other things just as much as homers. Most comparable are Eddie Murray and Freddie Freeman. Still on track with Ramirez and Cabrera through age 26. Their numbers looked bigger because of very different environment but normalized to environment still with them. HOWEVER. Cabrera and Ramirez dominated age 27-32. Triple crowns. Near triple crowns. Batting titles. .350 with great power and a great eye. Vlad has to take it to the next level to keep up now.

Player 1 and Player 2. Player 1 is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who his his brother from a different mother? Hr Age 22-26 Vladimir: 48, 32, 26, 30, 23 Hr Age 22-26 Player X: 29, 47, 23, 32, 25 They are within 1 for every number. Like Vlad had a 48, X had a 47. Both had a 32. Vlad had a 30, X had a 29. Vlad had a 26, X had a 25. They both had a 23. They hit virtually the same number of homers with the same season totals (mixed up a bit) between age 22 and 26. Who is player X and what was his final total?

Dumb stat but it is the second I have invented after 'bases clogged' (walks + double - stolen bases - triples), lower is better. For example John Olerud has a lot of clogged bases (100 walks 40 doubles 0 steals 0 triples in a year would give you 140 clogged bases). Vince Colemen in his prime might have 50 walks 15 doubles 110 steals and 10 triples. That's like -55 clogged bases (negative is good, not clogging bases). Second stat I am inventing is called LOD. LOD stands for Leverage OPS dif. a) Take worst of your lead-off or second hitter and subtract the OPS against of your closer from it. Jeff Hoffman last year was like .750 or something, Nathan Lukes, who hit second game 7 of World Series was .730 or so LOD is -20 or so. That is bad. You'd like the LOD to be 200-300 (.800 OPS for worst of first or second hitter, .500 to .600 OPS against for closer. Kind of being stupid here, but the point is that for a World Series contender the closer should have a good OPS against (.500 or .600), and 1st and 2nd good OPS for (around .800 at least). They are the ones pitching the critical inning and getting the most at bats. Now of course not every team is perfect, but I bet almost every team with a bad LOD can fix this stat very easily. Hit Vlad second, Varland closes and LOD is like 400 or something. So teams could have both actual LOD (decision by management) and optimum LOD (what it could be if players used in best way.

ETA could realistically be any where between late next year or sometime 2028 IF he has as good as we hope. Like 2030 would mean a full year at each level, and that doesn't happen unless there is a bump in the road. If things are going good he'll do two levels a year.

Yeah... not saying it isn't out reason. Season is f***d all the same. Injuries are always the worse then expected. Like Barger and Springer aren't even running yet, so probably 2 weeks away. Varsho now. I also am pretty sure Yesivage isn't healthy. Getting beat up a bit in the minors and they will pitch Lauer again instead of giving him a start next week. Yeah I know. His "command" isn't quite there. I don't know. Seems to me if they were confident he was healthy he'd be up next week. A healthy Yesivage is a better bet then Lauer... we will see I guess. Happy to be wrong.

Never understood why guys like Lauer don't embrace this. If they did well 35 times a year on a good team they could go 12-2 3.50 and win a big arb. A starting pitcher has to go 5 to get win but a relief pitcher doesn't. So if some bulk guy journeyman with good attitude embraced it would be to their financial advantage. 1. Can vulture wins without 5 innings pitched 2. ERA a bit lower because miss top hitters one time.

Heard Vancouver park factor is bad for hitters maybe because of same climate as Seattle, which knocks down scoring by 10%. New Hampshire is good especially for lefties. So maybe I exaggerate but I think Sean Keys might go .220 .350 .400, in Vancouver, .300 .400 .600 in New Hampshire (exciting), then .270 .370 .450 in Buffalo. I'm making up numbers point is guys may not put up sexy numbers in Vancouver then too sexy in New Hampshire. Someone with a BA subscription can let us know the Park Factors.

According to fangraphs they are at 2% to win world series, 9% for division and 32% for playoffs. That is 49-1. So Vegas odds reflect that "the crowd" I guess thinks it better than that. Fair enough. Complain if you want about Fangraphs models, but Jays are now ranked 19th out of 30 teams according to playoff chance. They are all of a sudden a sub-average team in terms of "expected happiness provided to fans" in 2026. At least according to fangraphs.

Like I've always said, the seemingly irrational fans, are actually rational. Division odds now under 10, playoff odds maybe 30? Fans react to the odds, and have a good intuitive feel for them. And just frustrating that this basically happens every year. Every goddamn year. Never just a nice fun season end to end, they pull out of it for a division 7% of the time, for a wild card maybe 20% of the time. Just like the fangraphs odds say.

I believe almost every year since 1993 they've had a slow start and gotten 8-10 games out of 1st early. Like by mid May. Outside of 2014 and 2016 and 2009 arguably. Even the 2 years they won the division 2015 and 2025 they were out early. Jays fans under 40 have never had like the kind of seasons we had, 91 to 93 where they were just good and fun to watch all year. Every year? Yeah almost every year they do this. I think fangraphs has their chance to win the division at 10%. And that's what the data says. They've themselves in this position probably 30 times since 1993, and crawled out of it twice. Like everyones like 'hey its OK, we pulled out of last year'. NO! Of the 30 times this happened they pulled of it twice to win a division, and I guess 3 wild cards. So like it's 10% division 25% wild card now.

Launch angle -8, exit velocity 102 = VERY BAD Launch angle -25, exit velocity 62 = Kind of works.

Vlad is making good hard contact and crazy low k rate so I guess can sort of survive like this... maybe He is ... Yandy Diaz?? His launch angle is 1. His ground ball rate 55. Those are crazy bad and if he hits .280 instead of .320 with that kind of ground ball rate he is worthless... How are we still here after 8 years of this? The playoffs last year were just like his 2018 in New Hampshire or the first 100 games of2021 a weird few weeks that showed his 99.99th percentile true talent level but disappeared in to the abyss to be replaced by our old friend, who we see so often, ground ball Vlad.

A season has ended in April. A sad thing and true pain, far worse then post season pain is the pain of meaningful summer baseball that will never be. At least people will learn to appreciate last year

What is his arm like? Seems like "unathletic" (compared to Ozzie Smith) guys like RIpken and Tulo can make up for it and still be elite if they have a great and accurate arm. So like there is some combination of Ozzie Smith like athleticism and arm strength with accuracy that has to be at a minimum. Unathletic with not a great arm he has no chance so yeah move him. However if athleticism + arm is at some minimum where it's feasible keep him there.

People shouldn't give me a hard time, a jobless middle aged loser, fancied myself a day trader, was far too clever and shorted the market time and again (most recently just a week ago), am hundreds of thousands in debt, and no hope for ever a moment of happiness, now wasting almost the entire day now watching Pluribus youtube videos (don't even post here much). If you disagree with the fangraphs statistical playoff odds model write them a letter. Dear Fangraphs I see you only give the Jays 33% chance of making playoffs while Yankees have 84% chance. How so only 2 weeks into season? The Yankees, they can't play defense, can't run the bases, and frankly aren't a good team, while the Jays are a hell of a bunch guys, who just had a 10 day stretch of bad injury luck. Make sure you take all that into account in your modelling. Respectfully yours Blue Jays Message Board.

I'm not sure what the point of the post was. It could be to illustrate that as bad as things have been it is unlikely they will continue to continue to trend that bad. Barger will come back and hit 30 homers. Okamata 30 too. Yesivage 11-3 140 innings pitched. Beiber 9-3 103 innings pitched. Hell even Ponce may show up October 15th. Perhaps. However according to fangraphs and Bayesian statistics you can already update your beliefs significantly based on new events. So more than likely if Ponce shows up October 15th the only place has to go is Dunnedin (I think about a 8% chance Jays are planning October 15th now, down from probably 25% opening day). Less than 10% chance they win the division.

2013 - Josh Johnson career over, Brett Lawrey complete bust, Melky Cabrera can't hit without roids, Brandon Morrow no!. RA Dickey not a Cy Young just an old slopper like the other knuckleballers. Emilio Bonficacio? Maicer Izturus? What were they thinking. 2017 - Bautista done (same age Springer is now), Tulo done (30 more games played left in life), Sanchez done (no more health), Ryan Goins... what were they thinking. 2013, 2017, 2009, 2018, 2004, 1997. Such is life. Disaster, disappointment, total disaster, no hope, no chance, not even a bit... just as common as the good, more common for most. The lucky few experience little pain, but for most pain is the norm.

Depends how it is true. If he hits .220 with 19 homers and Vlad hit .270 with 17 homers that is bad. If he hits .250 with 32 homers and Vlad hit .320 with 31 homers that is fine. 2019/2020 Eloy was capable of leading a good team in homers, so if he returns to that awesome, if he is awful but everyone is too, not awesome.

There used to be the Michael Kay show. It was fun to watch when the Yankees went 14-12 in a month and the Red Sox or someone got within 3 games. There was no Michael show last year, but Michael Kay was still fun with the 'don't hang on the rim in July' thing.... and finally had to admit the Jays were good in October.