Olerud363.354
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Everything posted by Olerud363.354
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Bo and Vlad increased their lifetime playoff wins from 0 to 10 and did not bring any happiness. If they increase chances of winning world series each year to 1/15 they have a 50% chance of getting one next 10 years. I wonder how many people here remember going to watch the 95 team. It got depressing pretty fast. Literally organizational momentum ground to a halt November 1st 1993 and didn't come back until 2015. Honestly if the Blue Jays win 89 in 2027 with Addison Barger looking good. Kirk and Vladdy fighting off obesity related early declines, Trey Yesavage 14-9 3.44 (not a superstar but solid) make a wild card and Vladdy and Kirk beat a better team with their clutchiness they learned this year.... you'll be happier than if IKF got home Saturday night, but they went into a 95 Jays, 2022 Washington Nationals style pit.
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Cleveland also had a brutal one in 1997 losing a game 7 lead in the 9th and losing in the 11th due to a Tony Fernandez error. Neither was quite as brutal as last night. Red Sox in 1986 was pretty brutal. These things are remembered and add character to the franchise far more than 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks type season.... Unless you want to argue some of our guys will be messed up by this and we won't win until we phase a lot of these guys out.
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His plate discipline looked great in the post season. I wonder if he could be a left handed Josh Donaldson. I think his defensive metrics were better at third despite the crazy throws from right field.
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Oh man. Maybe I am just coping by accepting what Whitt Merrifield had to say .... He didn't have a good lead not only to avoid the line drive double play but also to avoid being picked off with the third basemen sneaking in behind him or Catcher getting him. On the other hand maybe Merrifield is just protecting his friend. There are a couple of angles which look awful but might be deceptive. Like his lead looks like it is 2 feet, but they said it was more like 7 or 8, so he was about the same distance away from bag as the third basemen... Maybe I am just choosing to believe Merrifield to save my own sanity.
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I get that. Not sure though it feel better to lose 3-1. Or if you did there would be something else that would be magnified that you'd worry about. I don't know... totally get the play at home is going to drive some people nuts forever. I guess I just see everything as being on the margins. Like if Varsho hits that ball a foot to Rojos left. Or Clemente pulls the ball a bit. If Varsho struck out there and everything else was the same would everyone be happier today? Outcome would be the same. Wouldn't have to watch endless videos of IKF sliding and maybe he'd be back next year.
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Sad truth is there is only a happy ending for one team. This hurts but it is the best absolute outcome other than winning. If game 7 wasn't competitive. Like a 3-1 snoozer that would be worse. You'd miss the excitement of being up and so close. If the series was a 5 gamer with the Dodgers winning in LA that would be worse. Always regret the 2 games in Toronto that never happened. Seattle wins the ALCS? Worse. NY wins the division series. Way worse. Yankees win the division and lose a wild card series? Worse! Get swept by the Yankees on Canada Day weekend? That would suck. Happened against Boston in 2023. Win 74 and watch Vlad miss out on 200 hits last weekend? That sucks. It all sucks except winning the World Series. Coming close is the best possible outcome other than winning. Does anyone remember the 2007 Rockies or 2023 Diamondbacks? Would you rather be them?
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Not sure if these are God's truth. Don't remember the Will Smith homerun being quite that much of a wall scraper. According to Stats Cast Ernie's fly out and Will Smith's homerun were both 366. Such a Random sport. Ernie pulls that ball a bit...
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I do agree now that we will never get a chance like this again. Ever. Team not expected to do anything. Win division against Yankees, beat Yankees in playoffs, 7 game ALCS win at home. World Series win at home against Dodgers. End story book season. Pretty unlikely you ever get this good of a setup again. Like even if they win the World Series in the next decade it will be with some boring 200+ run differential team that wins it in 5 in San Diego or somewhere. So many great moments that led to some bad moments. Could have avoided the bad by not having the good occur. Hopefully most of us are still here when they win 5-1 in San Diego on a Wednesday October night (not November, but maybe it will be St. Louis or Atlanta, or San Francisco).
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Vlad has another level that could be unlocked. Gotta hope it happens. Satander could replace some of Springer's production.
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Those three combined for a sub 100 wRC+ in 2025 and Jays offense was still good. Question for me is whether the decision making process that led to 2025 can be repeated. Like maybe it's Clase, or R.J. Schreck, or Leo Jiminez or someone not in the organization. Maybe it's signing Luis Arraez and getting more out of him then expected by working on his defense and pop. Not really saying that would be a good move, like maybe it's Gleybor they sign. Or rejuviinating Eloy Jiminez. I don't know. Maybe the process isn't real and they win 75 for the next 5 years. There are 3 wins to be had by getting playoff version 80 hit tool Vlad to show up for 162 games. Can the Pop and the High performance team do more stuff like this? Or was 2025 a lot of good luck followed by a few innings of bad luck.
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Reason for optimism. For example unlikely Springer repeats his 2025. However to make up the wins Gimenez doesn't have to be magic, just healthy and a .250 hitter instead of .200. Also Nathan Lukes. Heard a couple of people saying can't repeat that. Maybe not. But Lukes 2025 is the kind of piece a good organization can find again whether it is Santander coming back, or a new Buffalo Boy (Clase, Loperfido, Schreck) stepping up. Or something else unexpected.
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Most important thing for a franchise is to challenge the 90 win mark every year and have every game matter. In the 2020s last game of the season mattered every year so far except 2024. I totally get how insane last nights game was. I slept 3 hours. I've never seen anything like that. In terms of long term fan experience it will fade. If Jays win 91 next year and lose in the wild card round, you will be happier, then if they won last night and won 75 next year. Other teams have gone through it. 86 Red Sox, 97 Indians, 2011 Rangers, 2016 Indians. I would add 2001 Yankees, except hard to feel to much pain going for a quadro-peet. If Jays win 90 next year and the magic Buffalo Boys development system still works next year I will be happy. If they win 75 and Shatkins is a mirage I will be sad.
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Exactly. The Yankees fan base is miserable. Every 3 game losing streak in August is a disaster. The Dodgers fans take a pout and leave in the 7th inning in World Series games. They literally left and gave up their World Championship team. After Joe Carter hit the homerun in 1993 in a blink of an eye Jacob Brumfield was playing for Olerud (against righties), Carter was one of the worst players in baseball and given 3 years of 700 PAs with negative WAR. The franchise was a miserable mess literally 4 months later. Do you know what it was like going to the Dome in 97 watching Carter? I half wished he didn't hit that homerun. Do you think 2 years from now you would be happier if the Jays beat Cincinatti 4-1. Like if they had a Texas Rangers 2023 style ring? Don't get me wrong. Am not discrediting the ring. But how much of a difference in satisfaction is there between Rangers 2023 and Jays 2025?
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On the other hand Giminez under-performed with the bat. Satander did nothing. Bichette was injured for most of the playoff run and we lost multiple runs in the World Series because he couldn't run (couldn't score last night in the second) and downstream effect of having to sub IKF. Berrios was a non-factor. Garcia injured.
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For a team with financial advantages and good management they should get a decent shot at it every few years especially with the expanded playoffs. Should get a few more shots. Chances to win it all are still probably only 1/15 any year. Better than Pirates (now that I said that watch Paul Skenes lead them to a World Series)
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No matter what happens tonight
Olerud363.354 replied to BlueJaysFan12345's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Not sure if it does. However the deferred money is still spent this year. They have to buy like a bond or something. So I believe they have to buy a 48 million (or something) bond every year that will mature at 70 million when they owe it. I think the deferred also counts towards the salary limits. I heard somewhere that the Dodgers payroll is 350 million or something including deferred. However there is also the tax. So Dodgers are paying actually 500 million out including tax while Jays be not taxed or taxed little. So could be accurate to say Dodgers are paying twice as much in payroll costs. -
No matter what happens tonight
Olerud363.354 replied to BlueJaysFan12345's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Amazing season. If we lose it will hurt but after a few days or weeks we will all look back at this season as the one of the three best in franchise history. So many epic moments. -
Same as Schneider's ball except to center. Either a) 'Pull dat ball' is not random Davis Schneider owned Blake Snell, got around on his fastball and it wasn't luck. b) 'Pull dat ball' is a bit random and if Barger or someone else 'pull dat ball' 99 mph launch angle 28 it a different game.
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Shift rule? I remember Brett Lawrie led MLB in WAR a couple months into 2012 partly because he played between 3rd for right handed batters and deep second (shallow right) for left handed batters and the d-system had him with crazy range... So at least for a while Lawrie was shifting to the other side. Like until the shift rules you could do whatever the f*** you wanted. 5 outfielders. 5 infielders. Play anyone any where. And I believe there were rare cases of pitchers going to a position for a bit then back.
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He got the bonus but some other guys didn't get big bonuses. I think everybody should have a couple of years MLB minimum. Barger, Loperfido, Lukes, Schneider, Fischer, Fluharty have probably only earned .... I don't know 1-1.5 million over a couple of years. Maybe Loperfido the lowest. I don't think any of those guys had big signing bonuses. Potentially those guys need to maintain accommodations in Buffalo and Toronto which can be a pain logistically. Financially part of it could be how much they are thinking ahead. Like after taxes they get 400k and that could be 95% of their lifetime earnings and they don't know what the future will bring so can't count on a big payday. Like the Barger on the couch thing. Does he feel comfortable yet spending a couple of grand on downtown accomdations for a week? Or is he thinking he has a few hundred k but that could be his life time earnings so can't blow it. Another question is how much into debt these guys might go living on a minor league salary.
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Can they start him in the outfield, move to relief, back to outfield, repeat back to releif. I think rule wise they can. There would be practical issues (like warming up, who to play in the outfield when he pitches, and probably others).
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Roberts says Ohtani might play outfield. Might pitch in relief. Might open. (game 7 which perhaps needs to be stopped to prevent such nonsense)... or maybe game 6 too. What are the rules on this. Game 6 I assume nothing too crazy. But game 7. He is in outfield can he come in to pitch occasionally then go back to outfield and like have a few batters scatterred over game? Probably nonsense because he wouldn't warm up, has never played the outfield and it would be weird pitching to a couple batters, resting in the outfield for a couple of innings then more... but... can they do this if they want to get creative? Have him open innings. Have him pitch against middle of order only. Then back next time Vlad comes up. If he gets guys out lesser pitcher finished inning. Have him come in if a jam... I don't know. What are the limits? I guess just it would be dumb and wouldn't work because Vlad would homer off him and the other pitchers like Glasnow/Snell are just as good ... and they can still get Ohtani in for normal inning or two without weird in and out.
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Maybe 354 foot oppo in Yankee Stadium you could argue they get lucky. But even then nice job going the other way and taking advantage of the ball park.
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Also 373 foot pulled fly ball. He pulled dat ball. Got around on it. I mean... he beat Snell right? Sold out for a fastball and got around on it. Don't understand what Snell is talking about there. Funny enough Mariners fans were talking the same thing about Springers game 7 homerun. It was only 99 mph so they sort of said he got lucky. First row. In both cases they beat the pitcher. Managed to pull a flyball. Pitchers job is to prevent them from pulling flyballs. Like Cal Raleigh hit a glorified pop-up down the line. But same thing. Pulled dat ball. That's why you pull dat ball if you can. Pitcher's job is to make sure batter doesn't pull a flyball.
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- trey yesavage
- vladimir guerrero jr
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I became a Jays fan in 1988. No internet. No forums. No chat groups. However there was Jays talk with Bob 'boccat' McCowan which was actually kind of a version of this. When did this group start? Honestly I want to say almost 20 years ago. I recall some of the posters that are still on this group posted on the Jays official forum at least as far back as the Aaron Hill years.
- 1,344 replies
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- trey yesavage
- vladimir guerrero jr
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