Olerud363.354

Hardest hit ball in quite a while. 108. Also very nice launch angle (for Vlad) -2 or something which is about 10 degrees higher than usual.

Never seen anything like this even in the worst of the Cito Gaston years. Jacob Brumfield is elite compared to Sosa.

What happened with Macko? Heard was here because they worked Varland and Rogers too much and one would have to be disabled? Did that happened? Or are they going to let Varland go 30 pitches again today and tomorrow in 2-1 and 4-2 losses then activate Macko?

He's injured after getting hit by pitch April 28 and every day will go 0 for 4 with max exit velocity decreasing every day, max launch angle decreasing and days needed to fully recover increasing 2 days for every day he refuses to go on the disable list. Now needs a month recovery and every day he plays add 2 days to that. Today - max exit velocity 85, max launch angle -8, time to recover 35 days. Tomorrow - max exit velocity 83, max launch angle -10, time to recover 37 days.

Josh Kasevich - If he is Ernie Clement with 35 walks instead of 9 that is super-helpful. Jo Jo Parker - If he walks 70 times strikes out 150 and is useful on basepaths, defense, a bit of pop that is super useful. Read that present iteration of Jays have like 4 players (Clement, Giminez, Heineman, Sosa) who haven't walked in months. Or whatever it was historically low. These new players coming in 2028 will hopefully at least help that.

Jo Jo Parker 1 for 3 with a couple of walks. .222 .374 .376 with 26 walks and 40 ks in 32 games. Not looking like an amazing pure hitter, that ship has already sailed (see Kevin McGonigle for what an good 19 year old pure hitter looks like, 46 to 28 bb/k as a 19 year old). Perhaps more of a Cavan Biggio type with an earlier start. Biggio put up similar numbers in Dunnedin, though Dunnedin was high a at the time and Biggio 22. A younger, slightly better Cavan Biggio not a bad thing. If Parker could do Biggio 19/20 for a 5 year run that would be helpful. Josh Kasevich: 3/4 and up to .289 .357 .388 basically his career averages. Trending to be the next Ernie Clement with more exit velocity?

What Blue Jays Message Board thinks will happen (1 in 8 chance this happens): Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a soft liner to right (88 mph) and that is down, Springer scores!!!! Jays win their 83rd and have clinched WC3. What a moment. Announcer: An amazing team. Springer hitting .200. Guerrero .260 with 9 homeruns, but somehow those two do it. Inspirational!!!! John Schneider will tell you these guys have been playing through things we don't know about (cough Guerrero small fracture in forearm, April 28th when hit by pitch, never healed) What will likely happen (7 in 8 chance this happens) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a soft fly ball to right, caught, and that is the 90th loss. Announcer: 90 losses after a World Series appearance just a year ago. And I will tell you there are things we don't know about and the team was never really healthy. Guerrero with a disappointing season for sure, but was never healthy if you ask John Schneider to tell you the truth. Long winter ahead and some tough decisions to be made.

1 in 8 chance of being the team that escapes from the 8 team trash pile to reach 84 wins for a weak WC3 is a lot different than 2 in 3 chance of being the team that gets to 89 wins in a three team race for 2 WC spots.

This logic is just recency bias. Jays are in a s***** situation, and 1 out of 10 times you get out of it. Offense rebounds, go on a 20-5 run, whatever... Just because it happened last year and 2015, means it's still 1 in 10, been in this s***** situation 20 times and got out of it 3 times maybe if go back 1989. In terms of the offence I believe the batted ball stats were good last year. Guerrero is injured, Springer is old. Exit velocities are way down. If they regress to their exit velocities they'll be just as s*****. Wow 88 mph fly ball. That will fall in next time. No it won't. And the wild card. 2 games back of 1 good team, is a lot different then 2 games back in the mix of 8 s***** teams. The first is a 50/50 proposition, the second 1 in 8. One of the teams will pull away. Which one? Not saying it's not the Blue Jays, just it's 1 chance in 8 it's them. Not 50/50.

36 turning 37 It happened to Bautista at about the same age. Springer is weirder because he went down to Bautista 2017 level, then back to elite now back down there again. Weird thing is people saw the situation with the 2017 Blue Jays clarely, but can't see it with this team. World Series clouded people's vision.

If I read the rule right they don't have the option to take it away from him if he is the last pitcher. Scenario 6th inning 4-1 Jays Hoffman comes in with 2 outs gives up 7 runs in an inning. 8-4 Bottom 6th Grand SLam Adres Giminez, Grand Slam Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Grand Slam Andres Giminez Record 3 grand slams in inning. Record tying 2 grand slams (Fernando Tatis Sr. vs Dodgers many years ago) by Giminez. 16-8 Jays. Yariel Rodreques comes in. 3 inning 9ks. Scorer can give Yariel win. But. Last night could not give a different reliever. It has to be after the lead change.

After watching Pluribus, with a subscription that was meant for Friday night baseball, but used to watch other shows as baseball no longer brought joy, I wonder if there a slow moving alien virus going around creating a hive mind. I remember a poster, not sure if he still posts loved to call a certain faction of this fine community 'the hive mind'. Here are some of the things the hive mind seems to like 1. Eliminate all low level minor league teams in rural and northern U.S. and move all to efficient labs in Florida with games at 10:00, 2:30 and 7:00. 2. Eliminate pitchers wins. The win is collective. 3. Eliminate historical discussions of team performance like the recent 'Are Boston Red Sox losers' discussion which was closed. All discussions must efficiently focus on the hive's goals. What are the hives goals? I am not sure yet. They are still somewhat human I think, and they enjoy discussing baseball, just in a sort of collective way and get annoyed at those of us who are immune to the collective virus.

Disagree with this. It's a fun stat and people know now to take it with a grain of salt and it would still be used as a pseudo tie breaker. Man it was fun watching Jack Morris get 20 wins. First to do it for the Blue Jays. Great to see Halladay get 20 wins in 2003. Fun to Watch J.D. Happ do it in 2016. And no they didn't give 2 of those 3 a Cy Young.

Jays are last in walks. Last in on base percentage. Last in OPS+. In the American League. Last year they were first in on base percentage, third in walks. They replaced Bo Bichette with Okamoto who gets more walks and same on base percentage. So decline is injuries and other players not walking. The combo of Giminez, Clement and Sosa have 9 walks in 400 at bats Last year those players (say Wagner was there instead of Sosa) got like 30 walks per 400 at bats. Now they get 9. Cito Gaston says you can't tell the boys to walk more because it will mess them up other ways. Can you really have a team that has players that walk 2 times per 100 at bats though ?

Trade deadline too. Gaussman, Springer, a couple of relievers, Corbin and Scherzer if he can get right. Even Beiber. Get him back. 5 good starts and try to get some young players. Maybe Cleveland will want him for that guy we gave them.

If improved over 2025 as a reliever, do you think he would also be improved over 2024 performance as a starter? 2024 in retrospect wasn't even that bad for a back of rotation starter.

Yariel Rodriquez 2024 as starter was OK. Better then Scherzer the last couple years. Good enough for 5th starter? Did they overthink this? Maybe he'll be even better with pitch mix. OK if not good enough for 5th starter, then what about 7th starter? Why can't Yariel be 7th starter come in, for 20 games in case of ACL problem, oldness problem, getting released problem, arm blown problem, or arm not fixed from TJ problem. WIth everything it is actually 1. Gaussman, 2. Cease, 3. Lauer, 4. Ponce, 5. Scherzer, 6. Corbin, 7. Yesivage, 8. Berrios, 9. Bieber 10. Yarriel Rodriquez So Yarriel Rodriquez the 10th starter and honestly given his 2024 that is a pretty good 10th starter. (gotta stretch him out a bit, start with a 2-2 Yarriel, Miles piggy back)

Yariel Rodriquez with an opener. Yariel could probably be an opener too if going all out, but idea would be to allow him to chill a bit and miss middle of the order. Miles 2 innings, Yariel 4 innings. Miles available other days. Yariel available for 1 inning on throw day. Why don't they do things like this? Relievers who go 2-4 once a week, and 1 once a week.

Cal Raleigh .157 .238 .320 -0.2 WAR Ohtani .233 .363 .404 Is it just data wack-a-mole craziness? Like these guys do good, opposition uses AI to analyze every at bat. Find the weakness. Or just still tired from last years playoffs?

Open with Varland/Rogers/Hoffman. There is an off day Friday. All three should pitch today and tomorrow. Rather them 100% chance of pitching in a 0-0 game or 50% chance of pitching in a 6-0 game (not that high but you know what I mean).

Aaron Judge - runs into wall at Dodgers Stadium. Stubbs toe. Refuses to hit ground balls on bad toe and rests a couple of months, short term sad. Long term happy.

Don't forget Bo Bichette who is.229 .290 .290 or something with also only 2 homers. Crazy game - makes what Aaron Judge has done impressive. Never hurt his wrist and couldn't drive the ball. Never lost his swing mechanics. Never slugged under .528. Never gone 2 months making bad contact. Makes sure strike-outs are over 160, otherwise he is swinging at too many bad pitches.

Cal Ripken if you don't know had the great 10 WAR seasons as young, young player, and another at 30. He mixed .320 .390 .550 seasons with .250 .300 .350 seasons and played 2632 straight games, this all because he, like all players, was injured sometimes, and just went with it. Basically Mike Trout but played through the injuries. So hit like s*** weeks or months at a time. I remember people cluing into this when he ended the streak at age 37 as a s***** 90 OPS+ player, and immediately went back to a batting title contending super star with nice power at 38, albeit in only 83 games.

2023 there is an injury point too. Off to good start. Wrist was hurting in Pittsburgh, took 2 days off and was mediocre the rest of season. .320 .393 .539 through 31 games before wrist injury. .249 .320 .419 after How long will this last? Depends how bad the injury, needs a week off. Or maybe things will heal eventually I don't, but I bet injured right now.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- It's Cal Ripken situation. 160 games a year, from 20 to 100 of them injured. In 2022 he was off to a great start following up 2021 got his hand stepped in NY, didn't blink, hit 2 more homeruns that game, in the lineup next day but had a 4 strike-out game and was mediocre Vlad rest of year. April 28th this year hit on fore-arm. Jumps in pain. Thinks nothing of it. Has a couple of good games to finish April at .350 .450 .480. 7 doubles, 2 homers at 430 feet each. But falls apart completely after that. Check out April vs May His exit velocities are awful in May and doesn't have an extra base hit. Injured I bet. He probably gets injuries that he should take a week off for. Plays through them, seems fine at first, but then make it worse and is awful for 30 to 100 days. 5 days off before the first playoff game, + the 2 off days a week playoff schedule is what got him normal again. Normal Vlad (New Hampshire, 2021, seconds half 2024, playoffs 2025) -- .330 .430 .600 Injured Vlad (to various levels rest of time) - anywhere from .135 .220 .135 (major injury) to .250 .330 .450 (slight injury)