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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    I am probably in the minority but I like some of the recent rule changes, like batter on second extra innings, bases larger, only 3 throws to first, but I hate eliminating the shift. There are no positions in baseball. You can put guys anywhere. You could put 7 guys in the infield if you wanted. Put everybody on one side or the other if you want. So I hate that they limit that. I think it's up to the batter to counter the shift and I don't quite understand why it didn't happen. I guess a point I keep making is that a .270 hitter spray hitter with 10 homers is roughly equal to a .240 hitter with 20 homers. A .310 hitter with 25 homers roughly equal to a .280 hitter with 35 homers. For some reason for 20 years everybody took the path to lower average a bit more power, so instead of beating the shift by going the other way, they just tried to pound the ball through it, or over the fence. Interestingly last couple of years we are starting to see teams and players just try to be the higher average lower strike-out lower power version of themselves (2025 Jays, 2026 Brewers)
  2. Olerud363.354
    As a reminder. Jose '4 run inning' Soriano doesn't give up 4 runs every inning, just one inning, and on that September night, that started our fall, it was the 7th.
  3. Olerud363.354
    The analytics clearly say pulling the guy is the right move. The anecdotes exist on both sides. However you can't pull the guy because pulling him will lead to MUCH more grief including players being pissed. Pull him and the reliever gets crushed massive controversy. Keep him in and he get crushed 'that's baseball'. Recent cases where not pulling the guy was wrong move: Snell last night. Jose '4 run inning' Soriano ** against the tigers mid September. After that Tigers game I looked up Soriano's 3rd time threw stats and they were awesome actually, so he should be allowed 3rd time through? I don't think so. I think those stats were small sample size and should be weighted with league average 3rd time through. So analytics show pulling the guy is the right move. Anecdotes show both blowing up at times. ** obviously you are not pulling a guy with a no-hitter,. I know that you morons. 1st hit get a guy up. 3rd hit pull him is the right move.
  4. Olerud363.354
    We have to go back all the way to 2025 to see a team that strikes out more than average win a World Series. I think like a team that hits .270 .340 .400 and a team that hits .240 .310 .450 might both score the same amount of runs. For a long time the team that hit .270 .340 .400 didn't exist, and probably still doesn't to that extreme but we are trending back for some reason. I'm not sure why. Maybe the bat speed data is revealing something interesting, that there exist these low bat speed, low strike-out guys who are successful. Now that teams have that data, maybe more of these players will be developed/given a chance. It's a weird thing. A guy can hit like Arraez or Kwan or 2025 Ernie Clement and be worth it. I guy can hit .230 with 220 ks and be worth it. Two extremes, but maybe the former are starting to get more chances, because the bat speed data is revealing things are weird and not black and white.
  5. Olerud363.354
    If he doesn't fit this roster should be able to flip him for the 2b equivalent. When I say 3-4 WAR type obviously I don't mean year after year until he's 40. These types may not be useful off-peak. So the Sean Keys 2b version, some guy who can put up 2-4 WAR a year in his 26-28 window. Brendan Donavan type maybe. Or maybe not. I don't know. Maybe Donavan types are way more valuable.
  6. Olerud363.354
    I think you guys are wrong about Keys. His .220 average in Vancouver was fluky, and his overall minor league numbers weighed down because of it. He'll be a great DH/1B for a few years. Might as well not trade him because we won't get anything from him anyway. Won't be a 8 WAR guy obviously, but kind of Adam Lind like / Josh Naylor useful piece. 3 or 4 WAR for a contender.
  7. Olerud363.354
    Bro. I pointed that out from the beginning. I got another f***ing Claude now using up all my precious tokens on another Sean Keys analysis, the tokens that I should be using to make predictions on the 10 year treasury yield which is behaving like a meme stock lately... but now I am wasting my time and my Claude's time on this (to be fair not all 20 are working on Sean Keys right now)
  8. Olerud363.354
    I didn't claim it as a good list. I said I have many Claude's going and they can show whatever I want. It's great p-hacking these days. Get lots of answer choose the one you like best. Starting point. Despite hitting .300 .420 .600 in the minors, something no other Blue Jays hitting prospect has done except maybe Delgado and Guerrero everyone thinks Keys sucks... so lets give Claude some prompts and prove it.
  9. Olerud363.354
    Something about the analyist just seems off. Guys like Sean Keys. Happen all the time. Like every year a Jays prospect hits .300 .420 .600 in the upper minors with great power and exit velocities. Remember Rowdy Tellez and Spencer Horwitz? I do. And they were a level below in different ways.
  10. Olerud363.354
    Anyway I give up. No one will ever trade us even the next Joe Panik or Cavan Biggio for Keys. Keys is just like Rowdy Tellez except with way better stats but probably even worse. He is just like Cavan Biggio except hits the ball hard. Howevew he will fail in ways Biggio can't imagine. He is just like Ben Rice except like if Ben Rice was a total failure even worse that Cavan Biggio. Release him now and open up a 40 man roster spot for the next Lenyn Sosa who has 5% the walk rate, 90% the hard hit rate of Keys.
  11. Olerud363.354
    But 2b according to data and Claude also suck, so should be a no-brainer to trade him for the 2b equivalent of himself, who ever that is, as long as the other team want the next Jason Giambi so we can get the next Joe Panik,.
  12. Olerud363.354
    I am not even sure what we are arguing bout to be honest. I think the conversation started because people are like flip Sean Keys for a similar guy who has positional fit. But then it's like 'Sean Keys sucks because all 1b prospects suck' Then it's like '2b prospect suck too' OK. So great. Trade Sean Keys for a platoon partner for Ernie Clement. If a fit exists I mean. I don't know if in the year 2026 some team that needs a 1b fill-in has a platoon 2b to give us. Like maybe a match exists maybe it doesn't. I don't know.
  13. Olerud363.354
    Doesn't seem like these guys come up all the time. When was the last time Jays had a guy like this? Josh Phelps? Adam Lind ? Who am I missing? Keys has better secondary skills then both. We can get anything we want with this stuff now. My Claude has Carlos Delgado as a Keys comparable. Laika is the smartest guy on the board no doubt... but in the age of Claude the playing field is more even. Especially for those like me, long term unemployed, who has had time to learn all the tmux keyboard short cuts and have 20 Claude';s going at once and can switch real fast, have all of them approaching the problem from different angles, and choose which one I like best. I like this one. To be fair I actually didn't choose the best Sean keys analysis out of all 20. This is one of the better ones,
  14. Olerud363.354
    Rowdy Tellez hit .270 .340 .450 in the minors in his age 23 season, Keys hit .297 .420 .610. Lifetime Keys has a way higher walk rate and isolated power. Career Rowdy was .274 .351 .452 in the minors, Keys .256 .387 .492. Interestingly both had a minor league season where the hit like .210 or something. Rowdy hit .222 .295 .330 in Buffalo his first try, Keys hit .217 .365 .407 in Vancouver. However I heard on X (formerly known as Twitter) that this was a fluke, because in addition to his awesome walk rate and power his batted ball metrics were good. The narrative on Rowdy Tellez as a minor leaguer is that he's a big guy that hits the ball hard, but not elite walk rate and power in the minors. The narrative on Davis Schneider as a minor leaguer is that he's a smaller guy, with elite walk rate and good power in the minors but not elite batted ball. The narrative on Sean Keys in the minors is that he's a big guy, with elite exit V, elite walk rate, elite power, elite batted ball, and a .250 average that may (or may not) be a fluke weighed down by the .210 in Vancouver.
  15. Olerud363.354
    Weird that he is not worth much. He has good 2026 stats and good exit velocities. The .200 average in Vancouver was a bit of a fluke probably (people were pointing out his good exit Vs before his breakout). On the other hand his lifetime stats are .250 .380 .490 or so... which is the kind of typical aaaa line that doesn't translate well when you knock off the typical 30 points of batting average guys lose off their minor league stats. And I think the career minor league stats are always important. So it kind of depends how you weight his last year.... like if he did this 2 years and a lifetime 1.000 minor league OPS he'd have to be a valuable trade chip.
  16. Olerud363.354
    13th last it is 12% chance to pick top 3 88 % chance to pick 23 Who will we get? a) the next Chad Jenkins b) the next Mike Trout but we'll trade him for the next Jose Berrios/Jose Soriano which I think is Eury Perez. Pray for the next Chad Jenkins. Would have been useful this year. I do not want this draft pick converted to Eury Perez.
  17. Olerud363.354
    Yep. It is a weird sad world. If Moreno didn't get the thumb injury he probably has twice the trade value, and maybe more insentive to move him to third.
  18. Olerud363.354
    2028 Angels Attendance 3 million 500 hundreds Trout and Nimala bring the most joy that baseball fans have every experienced. Blue Attendance 700k Rogers ratings nothing - not a single joyful things for 2028 Blue Jays. Rogers out of business.
  19. Olerud363.354
    lol. And Nimilla exploded hitting like a super-prospect. (I still believe career minor league numbers are the way to go... but hell in the season from hell will give up a hall of famer for a scrub, it just has to be!). Nimalalla - .288 50 110 rookie of the year 8.9 WAR breaks Vlad's young player homerun record, the next Mike Trout. Soriano - 8-14 5.33 , then 1-9 7.77 Tommy John, career over.
  20. Olerud363.354
    He was a weird best prospect in baseball. In 2021 he would have been a legit best prospect in baseball given his numbers, but he hurt his thumb and missed 3 or 4 months. In 2022 he wasn't at 'best prospect in baseball' level but I think the guys ahead of him graduated and they hadn't re-rated up and comers, so there was a few weeks he was #1, but not entirely legit. Honestly if he hadn't hurt his thumb they could have traded him for a haul, or explored a move to 3b which may have worked out.
  21. Olerud363.354
    They are technically eliminated from wild card contention, as are the Toronto Blue Jays. As likely will the Baltimore Orioles in 45 minutes or so. They are not technically eliminated from winning the AL West. I think about 11 things have to go right. But they could do it if they win out, and Houston and Texas lose out.
  22. Olerud363.354
    I was going to say he now "literally" deserves to be sent to Indy Ball. However it is not true. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has played 8 seasons. Of the 8th this is the 4th worst. If you believe fangraphs. His defense went from like -20 fanggraphs level to -6 which is oddly good for a 1b given how their system works. Hi WAR was 1.2. He was 1.2 in 2023 in 10 less games. He was less per game in 2019 and 2020. He's much better than Eric Hosmer. That is if you believe fangraphs d-numbers.
  23. Olerud363.354
    Why didn't he have anxiety in 2021 ? Or second half 2024 ? Or 2018 ? Or 2025 playoffs ? Or did the outcome of 2025 make the anxiety worse for multiple players? I think the load management is the key with the back. Play him 5 games a week. Some DL stints. Try for 120 good games.
  24. Olerud363.354
    Did Varsho not hitting a flyball, Hoffman, the Vlad just missing the walk off Everyone is depressed and it tanks there future. How did the other teams that went through stuff like this deal with it? 86 red sox? 2011 Rangers? 2016 Indians ? 1987 Blue Jays ? 1993 Phillies ? Is there a good example of a very sad ending, potentially long term psychological damage, but the team comes back to happy times? Or team needs just rebuilt?
  25. Olerud363.354
    Just such a missed opportunity. They didn't have to be the Dodgers, just some stupid 85-77 team that maybe won a wild card series and we all cry when the Guardians beat them in the ALDS. Like they should be the Phillies I think. Not ... the 1994-97 Blue Jays.
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