Olerud363.354
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Everything posted by Olerud363.354
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Soto = 750 million (2026 projected = 6) Vladdy = 500 million (2026 projected = 5) Tucker = 400 million (2026 projected = 4.4) Bo = ? million (2026 projected = 4)
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If you just go by WAR and say Tucker's fWar worth a 400 million than Bo fWAR worth 320 million, based on the 5 to 4 ratio that the fangraphs website reports. If you say the ratio between something other than 5-4 than maybe there are reasons that you have but one of the reasons is NOT backward fWAR.
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Both have played about 750 games, 5 fWAR per 150 for Tucker, 4 fWAR per 150 for Bo Bo 122 wRC+. Tucker 138 wRC+. Tucker is better going backward. But very slow bat for such a good hitter. But actually Bo even slower bat. Vlad fast bat. Tucker medium. Bo slow. I think it is true see https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
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Tucker. Not entertaining. No 80 grade tools but better WAR than Vladdy. If I was an agent I'd sell Vlad on the tools and entertainment, and Tucker on the solid performance. The question is whether the the data supports Tucker going forward as a 5 WAR guy without elite tools? 5 WAR is 5 WAR whether you do it with tools or not. But the tools may indicate something about how it goes moving forward to age 29-39.
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He has the same lifetime wRC+ and wOBA as Vlad Guerrero Jr. with much better defense and baserunning. Not that you are wrong. The things that he is great at are chase% and bb% and I don't know enough to say if those are tools that will age well. Things that he is good are sweet spot %. Things Guerrero is good at is hitting the ball harder than anyone but not quite getting the results you expect consistently (though has had his moments for months at a time, including the 2025 playoffs). Tucker's tools, outside of plate discipline, are from what I can see, worse than Guerroros (exit velocity, spring speed, arm all worse... which sort of makes you wonder if Guerrero should be playing some outfield and third). Anyway the agents will put together a package highlighting the players strengths and making the comparions good as possible. So the agent will have a Tucker/Guerrero comparison package that will use wRC+, defense and baserunning to argue Tucker deserves as much if not more. Not saying agent will convince a team, but just needs to convince one.
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Steamer has Clement at 1.6 in 118 games with declining defense. Weird thing is that it has Varsho's defense going negative. So not sure exactly why it is predicting these guys to fall off a cliff defensively. Clement in 150 games with decent defense is more like 3 WAR again... so if you make that trade by projections you assume the model is correctly modeling Clement's defense and playing time... which it may not be.
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What do you think he'd cost? Years ago Blue Jays got Randal Grichuk and Aledmys Diaz from the Cardinals, at a similar age and stage of career, and they cost almost nothing. Daulton Varsho cost a top 5 (overall in MLB) prospect and Gurriel. Interesting that the incremental cost between 2 WAR projected guys and 4 WAR projected guys was so steep. If you consider Donavan a 3 WAR projected guy what is the price? (of course beyond WAR and projections there are all kinds of internals we don't know about)
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He has an almost .400 minor league on base percentage. The projection systems don't seem to like him that much, but still project him as better hitter than IKF. Projected for a .320 on base in the majors. Just eyeballing the projections they have him at 1/2 a win better than IKF in limited time.
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Rather have had Cavan on the team then IKF I think. Just the story. Legacy trio wins world series 1. Vlad Guerrero greatest playoffs ever 2. Bo Bichette inspirational comeback and big World Series hits on one knee 3. Cavan Biggio - hits .100 and scores winning run with 80th percentile sprint speed and max use of sliding glove Craig would be proud for sure.
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Scored more runs in 2021 and 2022 (with respect to league average) I was critical of Shapiro and Atkins in late 2023 when it looked like they were way behind the curve with respect to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. 2025 that has obviously changed. Is it sustainable? We will see. Interesting to look at key players (by WAR) and how Atkins got them Bichette, Kirk, Barger, Schneider, Yesivage - signed/drafted developed by Atkins Guerrero - signed by AA, developed by Atkins team, signed long term by Atkins Springer, Gaussman, Bassit, Hoffman, Santander - big ticket free agent signings. Clement, Straw, Lukes, Lauer, Heineman - Free struggling minor league vet reclamation projects (I know Straw was kind of accidental but still fits that profile as he was in the minors all of 2024) Varsho, Berrios, Giminez, Bieber - acquired for Atkins draft picks Morena/Martin/Horwitz Probably forgetting a few people and bullpen pieces
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He had 1 fWAR in 50 games. I mean... c'mon. I didn't say "he is showing consistent year to year 3 WAR performance". This board needs to shape up. Just headed to the fate of the old board where no new posters will ever join because of the ridiculous negative vibe that goes on here. Proper way to respond to my comment "Dear Olerud363.354, while Martin did have 1 fWAR in 50 games, which would be 3 in 150 games, I do believe he will never reach that potential. He will be injured. He will regress. He will be forever a dissapointment. It is my hard held belief that the 3 WAR potential of Austin Martin will never be realized"
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Austin Martin and Spencer Horwitz are also both looking good enough to be 7th hitters on a playoff team (or a 2 hitter on Pirates/Twins). I mean we don't know yet how their careers go exactly, both are late bloomers, but showing 2-3 WAR potential. Martin especially was one of the reasons we hated Shatkins, for screwing up the 5th overall pick, but last year Martin kind of played well as a high on base speedy outfielder. If somewhow Berrios and Martin both have 3 WAR next year it will make Shatkins look even better.
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I guess on the other hand it is impossible to know what skills and situations will become important in a playoff series. This World Series, with Bo Bichette not able to run and 2 extra inning games with 3 runners thrown out on the bases (2 at home plate) in those games... is like the baserunning World Series. A different world series maybe there is a bunch of hard plays in the middle infield. Will say would be nice if you don't have to use multiple players for 1 substitution. Like Lukes/Schneider/Straw sequence where 2 players used over 1 out.
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Though arguably Little was needed. Any extra innings game you do need those pitchers. Problem is IKF is an average runner. Like honestly Cavan Biggio would have been better in that role. Or Joey Loperfido. Joey Loperfido has played 50 minor games at second base. And if you don't want to put Loperfido at second put Davis Schneider there. Like maybe a bad idea to put Loperfido at second in the World Series not being there for two years. What I mean is put Loperfido at second a few times in the regular season just in case.
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I went back to look at the exit velocities from the Monday June 9th game. The Jonatan Clase game. Turns out he had the second best exit velocity that game at 108... The 108 wasn't the homer. The homer was 106. I think those may have been his two hardest balls as a Jays though. Nothing super-special for "best EV" or "best distance"... but at a dramatic moment. Sprint speed and arm though rank high. Routes? Apparently not super-great. The 20 homer minor league season is promising. 56 total minor homeruns vs Straw 7. Like Clase has more of a chance for a big swing somewhere.
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What was his sprint speed? Kind of amazing though to do even that being thrown into AA at 30 without having played baseball in 12 years. I kind of feel like 1994 Jordan would have been a good fit for 5th outfielder. Maybe get him some reps at second. 1. Great sprint speed 2. Championship experience 3. Long reach If the 1994 Jordan was on third instead of IKF Jays win world series, good sprint speed, long wing span, athletic ability to do head first dive. =
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Fair enough. I wonder what you do with Clase though. I think I've heard some posters say he may be DFA'd. Seems like a waste of the skillset. Is his defense sub-par (despite elite speed) ?
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What do people think of Jonatan Clase vs Straw? Clase has elite sprint speed and decent power (as evidenced by a 20 homer minor league season and that one long clutch homerun I think against the Cardinals) decent walk rate. Straw is a noodle with the bat but decent walk rate (for a noodle), speed and a .250 hitter. Frustrating seeing Straw come up so much and so empty in the World Series, but that is low sample size and his skill set could have just as easily produced a walk or single that would turn a game. Clase would have been more a threat for some power that could turn a game (of course could just as easily gone 0 for 9). I guess we owe Straw money, but would you rather of Clase in that roster spot. Would it be possible to trade some combination of Straw, Satander, Berrios for another bad contract? If so which one?
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1 - I don't think anything changes from post to post. I've had the same style for 20 years of posting on the variations of this board. The point I was trying make was pretty simple but maybe it went over people's heads. I consider myself a casual fan because I don't look at advanced statistics much (though I appreciate they exist and other's knowledge of them)... I mean I go to fangraphs and look at WAR but everyone does that now. What I don't do much of is looking at pitch level data. So in a casual way I can go to baseball reference and look at Clase's ERA in 2024 (0.6 or something) and 2024 playoffs (10.0 or something) and say hmmmm.... as others have done too. What I am curious about is what the pitch level data indicates. Like he got caught for the pitch rigging thing not just because he was throwing balls but 'wasting' pitches at a crazy rate... so curious if there is anything in the pitch data from the 2024 playoffs, like middle/middle rate or something that would be suspicious.
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He did good in dominican or something (per ang). Get Stroman and him back together to make up.... lol... vaguely recall the first sign of trouble with Stroman was he apparently didn't get along anymore with Sanchez.
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The guy was great his first 2 and a half years here. Never heard about any problems. Maybe as time went on, the team got worse he didn't get along with his team-mates. But does he have anything left? Numbers look terrible last year, and he seem to get more and more problems getting along with people as the years went by.
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And got caught for steroids... as did Clase actually.
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I made the mistake of looking at IKFs sprint speed (27 or so 47th percentile) then got thinking would the Jays have won with Cavan Biggio? Biggio has 80th percentile sprint speed (butterfly effect, I know, Biggio high fives some guy different than IKF would have and everything after that is different... but still)
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Might have to give away Nimmala in that type of trade. Kind of similar to Marisnick in a way. Real toolsy guy who hadn't quite hit really well yet. Wow that was a weird trade looking back on it. Yunel Escobar and Jose Reyes were about the same age and actually similar hitters, but Yunel coming off of a down season and non-woke eye black. Reyes was faster Yunel was a better defender and cheaper. I think the entire trade sucked from Blue Jays perspective in retrospect.
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Like the idea of using financial advantages in creative ways. Got to be some matches where team can take on good contract + bad contract that is equivalent to what you'd pay in free agency.
