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Olerud363.354

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Everything posted by Olerud363.354

  1. Olerud363.354
    They ended up eliminating short season leagues like the NY Penn leagues, that used to get the best college players that were drafted in June. t was great for these towns. Now they go to a complex league. I believe they often have two teams playing in the same complex. Like Dunedin, rookie at 10:00 am, low A in the evening. This is probably better for the organizations (work on players development in their Florida facilities) but horrible for growing the game. Used to be able to watch George Springer or Jose Altuve or Pete Alonso on a July evening. Now it is all in Florida with Ron Desantis and the old party people from the Villages not even caring, and the ordinary North Eastern people in towns not big enough for aa having lost out on good baseball.
  2. Olerud363.354
    Varland is kind of weird. His traditional numbers with the Jays are pretty average. In the last week of the season and the playoffs he had some huge moments. Starting with a 2 inning start against Boston when Jays had blow (tied) the division lead. Then striking out Stanton with the bases loaded, and another start against the Yankees in the ALDS clincher. Important game 6 and 7 innings in the ALDS. Also gave up some big homers (Judge, Jazz, Polanco, Rayleigh) all bit in potential losses (except Springer saved the last one). So it wasn't all roses. Just musing a bit on what he will become. If they keep using him in 'heart of the line-up' role inning 5-8 his numbers could look worse then he his. Like he was always facing the best hitters in the playoffs. So maybe the trade will look bad, but he will get big outs with a 3.66 ERA and 9 homers given up 4 by Judge.
  3. Olerud363.354
    Yesterday I mentioned there was more of a chance of Jesus appearing in 2026 then Santander or Eloy Jiminez. Strange that it happened but not the way I was speculating.
  4. Olerud363.354
    I would say more averigish, slightly below average but not truly awful. His chanse percentage is 33rd percentile, and walk rate 50th percentile. Seems slightly below average with average outcome (like he chases a bit more than average, but perhaps goes into deeps accounts so walks at an average rate). Ground ball percentage is 48%, to Teoscar 41%. BB % about 8% to Teoscar 6%. Biggest problem seems the ground balls. Maybe there is a tweak there.
  5. Olerud363.354
    So don't we still have Eloy Jiminez? Jiminez at this point is just as good as Tony. Both had good seasons once, both will have ended up playing 50 games over 2 years. Jiminez is two years younger. Admittedly Jiminez has only had 1 healthy season (and not this decade) with Satander 3. Jiminez has better minor league numbers and maybe more talent. The chance of either coming back is probably literally lower than Jesus Christ coming back this year. Not even kidding. On betting sites the chances of Jesus Christ coming back ends up being between 3 to 7%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/08/odds-of-jesus-christ-appearing-in-2026-double-beating-return-on-bitcoin It's a very weird thing and I honestly haven't looked into it much, I would assume the payoff for Jesus Christ not coming back should be just below 1 year CD rates minus administrative costs then you could just make a bit of free money by accepting bets for it... but it is a bit higher than that. Not sure what the odds are on Jiminez or Satander coming back.
  6. Olerud363.354
    How different is this analysis if Lukes is the middle of the group? Like chase above 30% and Lukes is 31% couldn't he be compared to guys between 27 and 35 or something? Lukes also has a decade of minor league ball, and his line last year makes perfect sense when compared to his minor league numbers. .289 .352 .420 minor hitter, and .259 .328 .400 or so last year.
  7. Olerud363.354
    If he's doughy not a big deal. The problems occurred when he was flat out obese. The best he looked was honestly when he was 19. Never got back to that ... convinced he would have won the triple crown at 19 if they called him up in 2018. 2 years later during Covid he had gained like 80 pounds. Probably most of the time he is halfway between obese and fit which will be good enough hopefully.
  8. Olerud363.354
    He did. And that is why it is kind of a weird gray area. They weren't confident going game 3 and 7 with him in the World Series. And they weren't confident going with him on 4 days rest last Thursday of the regular season. So kind of wondering if the extra rest thing is going to be be long term... if so that is probably still a great outcome for 16 million. And maybe a 6 man rotation fits the roster (Yesivage stil young, Gaussman kind of getting old, Berrios not totally reliable)
  9. Olerud363.354
    Curious if anyone has any update on what is going on with Shane Bieber? Seemed like he never quite recovered from TJ and couldn't pitch on 4 days rest. Jays basically switched to the bullpen games last week of season to give him an extra day. Then World Series wasn't given 2 starts. Then accepts the option. Do you think a) Bieber will be able to handle a full workload 32 starts 180 innings, games 2 and 6 of World Series. b) Bieber will be healthy all year but have to be managed as kind of a once a week pitcher 115 innings, phantom dl mid season for rest and 1 start in in each playoff series. c) he is broken. Will pitch at Josh Johnson 2013 level.
  10. Olerud363.354
    I don't think anyone wanted him released, more just speculating whether he could get released if his arb salary got way above his value. His WAR was tracking Cody Bellingers who went from a very similar start as compared to Vlad to having no value, but a huge arbitration salary and got released. People also mentioned Jayson Heyward, even Vernon Wells who went from MVP candidate level to useless year to year. Interestingly both Vlad and Bellinger turned it around and are probably tracking to have similar careers in terms of total WAR. The arb system rewards a combination of counting stats and seniority. After Vlad 6 WAR 2021, he got 8 millioin, after his 1 WAR 2023 he got almost 20 million. People were just speculating what would happen if his arb salary was once again way more than his value... He had a great 2024 so we didn't arrive to that scenario.
  11. Olerud363.354
    Buck Martinez 454 games for Toronto Blue Jays 4.5 fWAR Joe Carter 1039 games for Toronto Blue Jays 7.5 fWAR Buck Martinez best hitting season - 1983 .253 .337 .454 .352 wOBA+ Joe Carter best Blue Jays hittings season - 1992 .272 .330 .508 .363 wOBA+ Buck was actually an awesome platoon Catcher - Has pretty big splits so hard to say that he would have been effective full time. Better player than Joe Carter per game. Had almost as much fWAR in 82/83 as Carter did in 92/93 playing half as much. (Cherry picking a bit because Carter best season was 1991, but who would even think Martinez 82/83 is comparable to Carter 92/93)
  12. Olerud363.354
    Same lineup that led the majors in runs last year. However they are relying on Judge to be Babe Ruth version of Judge again at age 34 and for Jazz and Grisham to replicate career best seasons.
  13. Olerud363.354
    What I mean by 3 point line in basketball there is that chart where in 1990 or something shots were taken all of over the place, in 2020s it is threes and close range only. On one hand 2025 Jays are fun and showed trying to hit .280 with 10 homers might work (but did anyone one actually do it? Ernie and Lukes were more like .265 combined). On the other hand Luis Arraez has no job so it is really .280 with 10 homers and nice defense and baserunning might work.
  14. Olerud363.354
    I can't remember where I saw it, but there was some analysis that this is like the 3 point line in basketball. The .240 guy with 20 homers walks more to, so it ends up being .280 .330 .400 vs .240 .320 .420 (with a lot more strikeouts and some more walks) and the latter is slightly better WAR and maybe easier to get so have selection pressure in that direction.
  15. Olerud363.354
    They don't move the barr too much though. Was being a bit facetious with the Alex Gordon comment. In his prime Gordon was 5-6 WAR and (like Zobrist) it's not really possible to get a player like that. Or even who is that player? Prime Nimmo is closer than I thought but not quite there. Gordon's best 4 year run was 21 WAR and Nimmo's is 16 I think.
  16. Olerud363.354
    Outside of 2019 I think this management group just always tries to make a team that could win 90 and see what happens. Didn't always work out. It sort of 'seems' like there was a rebuild after 2016 because 2017 and 2018 didn't work out, but I think going into those seasons (keeping Donaldson for example) they prepared like it might work out.
  17. Olerud363.354
    Another way to go could be a Alex Gordon type, if you remember him. Since we missed out on Tucker an Alex Gordon type would be perfect, Gordon was kind of cheaper, younger version of Tucker with better defense but maybe not as much power. Not sure who the Alex Gordon is in modern baseball but that would be a cool player to have.
  18. Olerud363.354
    Comrade Andrew Stoeten had actually had a pretty good take. Just said Bo had injuries, questions about how well he'd age, and may have not been receptive to a position change (before getting foreced into it with the injurty)... Stoeten also went scorched earth on Rosie whatserface. Saw a couple of people saying she's the worst person they ever met. lol. I guess she has a feud with the front office. Don't have a subscritption to Toronto Star so not sure what she said. She also didn't vote for John Schneider.
  19. Olerud363.354
    Not entirely sure this is true though. I heard his comments on Bo, and they were pretty tame without many details, just sort of an 'all sides guy' 'both parties might be better moving on'. I watched a few episodes of his pod-cast, which I think is done together with a lady reporter from Toronto? Not entirely sure as I have consumed this on sort of facebook/twitter feeds so just get bits and peaces. Sometimes has interesting things to say but never to negative really. Could be wrong. Saw one funny episode where Whitt was talking about having ADD in the outfield and trying to get a glimpse of TVs on the concourse to see football games, and mentioned he was happy to have Varsho or Keimier catch everything. Like I said, haven't seen every episode or anything, just what I saw was pretty light hearted.
  20. Olerud363.354
    Want to avoid an IKF type getting either a run of playing time in the regular season, or critical at bats in playoffs.
  21. Olerud363.354
    There was an argument about this a while back, and while it at first appears that Schneider has a significant advantage over Clement against righties, when you adjust for sample size it is almost nothing. However if you really want to get into the weeds you could argue about the sample size adjustments. What about Barger at second base sometimes? Then you get a Lukes/Varsho/Satlander/Giminez/Barger all in against a tough righty, and find out if this is feasible in the case of playoff weirdness or long term injury to Giminez or Clement. As a 'casual' I totally get that Barger doesn't have great range, but World Series Bo on one knee didn't have great range either. It seems like in the playoffs they were willing to do non-perfect defense first part of games, so you wonder if Barger at second first half of a game is do-able.
  22. Olerud363.354
    You want to avoid the next IKF in the playoffs. So build the team with a plan that still works if any combination of two players get injured.
  23. Olerud363.354
    I wonder if Okamoto, Barger or even Suarez could play second, the same way Bo played second in the World Series. None of these guys have the greatest range, but Bo on one knee didn't have the greatest range either. In the playoffs if we assume that 'elite' players are going to have disproportionate success, then we should assume awful hitters will have disproportionate failure. So perhaps even more important than getting a guy like Bo, is avoiding guys like IKF and Straw. So can Barger or Okamoto handle second for 2/3 of a game the same way Bo did? And if so that is probably something you want to do occasionally in the regular season before trying it in ALCS game 5 or something.
  24. Olerud363.354
    Anyone can have a moment though. Varsho, Giminez, Barger, Davis Schneider and Miguel Rojas and old Max Muncy from the other side all hit big post season homeruns. Varsho left on left against Snell in game 1 was as big as Bichette game 7. Barger hit .367 .441 .583 in post season and could have been World Series MVP. Not sure there is any magic beyond maximizing team WAR. And adding Bo would add to that obviously.
  25. Olerud363.354
    They already replaced him with Okamoto though. Everyone else on the position player side is coming back. Eyeballing the average of projections Okamoto is 2.5, Bo 4.0. So they are down 1.5 WAR, not 4.0. Adding Bo back in and reallocating playing time would be worth a projected win or two since he won't be replacing a 0 WAR player. Obviously in real life this all depends on who gets injured. I guess if Clement or Giminez got injured or severely under-performed it would be nice to have more middle infield depth.
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