Olerud363.354

Only 7 games but he has a 60% ground ball rate and isn't hitting the ball as hard as usual. ha ha. It is what is always has been. Hopefully he hits one hard in the air eventually. As an outsider I don't understand it and never will. 1. Historic minor league stats, best ever in Blue Jays history .400 average in double a as a teenager. 2. Historically high hard hit rate and more hard it balls in play than any other player this decade. 3. Two historic performances in homerun derby showing generational power tool. 4. Given 80 hit grade tool by scouts maybe only one ever. 5. 18 playoff games against best teams and pitching in the game hitting .350 .500 .700 or something. 6. 4 month stretches hitting .340 .440 .650 in 2021 and 2024. 7. By all metrics 99.99th percentile raw hitting tools on par with Frank Thomas and Albert Pujols. 8. Randomly hits .250 with a 55% ground ball rate weeks at a time preventing generational multi year numbers.

100%. Haven't read the entire thread so not sure if anyone suggested that. Fascinating last year to see the different perspectives on game 7. It was painful but not the most painful thing I've experienced as a Jays fan. By far April 2013 was. The most promising season in a generation gone after a month (injuries and bad start). I remember going to Canada's wonderland that summer and the vibe was so sad. No competitive Jays, CN tower in the distance so lonely. I feel like early in the season there is a different kind of stress. Like all of a sudden Yankees are 20-5, the Jays 10-12 with a bunch of injuries kind of thing. Less devastating with all the wild cards now, but a competitive season over quick can happen... painful when it does. Talking to my Mets friend the other day, and we agreed Mets and Jays are similar. Can't complain (not the Pirates) and so many happy moments but so much and failure too. Not the Yankees or Dodgers who are pretty much pain free for fans 35 or younger. A 35 year old Dodgers/Yankee fan has never seen a season spiral out of control to 70 wins. We fear this. Because we know it can happen.

I find the rage venting correlates pretty heavily to the in-game win probability chart and also the season long playoff probability odds. And injuries too. Like losing 2/3 to the tigers no injuries, is a lot different than losing 2/3 to Rockies and Ponce maybe gone for season, Little really messed up, bullpen over-worked, and Okamota showing warts (crazy k-rate). I'm not saying the sky is falling, but it's like in season there's these shifts. Like last year Jays division probability went from I think 95% to 50% in 6 days. That's insane. Like the fans don't rage for small shifts in probability, or losing an average game. It's huge probability shifts, big blow leads, injuries, And losing to the Rockies.

No doubt in my mind that Rockies were embarrassed by Jays last year, so prepared and focused on this series quite a bit. Paul DePodesta is a data guy. I think a few laughed at hiring him... can't remember why. Maybe he screwed up another team. I assume if nothing else he'll just catch them up to average game prep for a modern MLB franchise and they'll win at least 60 this year and won't lose 15-1 as much.

Paul Depodesta is a complete genius, and they've been game planning this series for months. I believe Freeland was the guy pitching the 20-1 game in Denver. I believe they have put everything humanly possible into this game. Every pitch by Freeland will have perfect location and his series of pitches will have sequencing that has been planned for 7 months. Every batter has gone into the simulation thing to learn Gaussman for 7 months. They will know what is coming from the slightest tell. They are out for revenge for the 20-1 game (or whatever it was) and by god, I do think they will get it. The only positive is that our run-differential will go to like -20, and the Yankees will lose too today 2-1. And will be leading us like by 30 runs in run-differential but tied in standing, and Michael Kay will lose his mind completely.

Yeah. Vlad played in Blue Field. Bo in the GCL (Gulf Coast League). Travis Snider played in Pulaski, but that (2006) looks like it was the last year. Before contraction they had basically three short seasons. NY Penn for example. Appalachian League, and Gulf Coast League. So the players that just got drafted could get really spread out.

Stroman tore his March 10th and was back in 6 months. Probably an outlier and unlikely Ponce can do the same. Sucks.

I mean nothing is black and white. It is nice if they destroy the FCL. If they don't not the end of the world, but if after 100 at bats they are .175 with a 30 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio 2 doubles and a homer.... that is not good, even if only a month of data and they are only 18.

But the league Aaron Judge was sent to was still kind of appropriate. Before contraction there was like a really pathetic morning league in Dunnedin, and Jays had Pulaski, and they had the old Vancouver (which was short season). The first 2 were extremely low level, so a good 18 year old high ranked prospect should have destroyed them. And wait. Jays still have the pathetic morning league where they play at 10:00 am or something. It is called Florida Complex League. An 18 year old high ranked prospect should wreck that. Or at least hold their own. Like that Bonilla guy when he showed up and was hitting .180 you kiind of knew.... So now it is Sanchez who is the next hope, along with Parker? Sanchez did better in the Dominican League than Bonilla, now he and Parker have to destroy that 10:00 league and move up to the other Dunnedin which is still low, but that one you don't expect him to destroy (it would be nice. They __HAVE__ to destroy the 10:00 league).

Right, but when Judge went to Buff-Fudge no where for a few weeks at the beginning of his pro career (Charleston, which at the time wasn't totally butt-fudge no where but full season A) he hit .328 .428 .530. Bobby Witt. Yeah totally. Did not dominate the short season rookie he was sent to. That didn't indicate a ceiling. Witt is interesting kind of got better year to year. Not good in rookie went from wRC+ of 95 in the majors to 170 within 3 years. Bo showed up rookie ball hitting .400, destroyed the low minors. 140 wRC+ in 40 games at 21. Sort of a steady 125 wRC+ after that. As for Jo Jo Parker what would be nice is if he hits the ground running, has stupid numbers in low a, and does 2 levels this year, like a lot of the really good prospects do.

If healthy he will be missed. We will have to see. If it turns out his legs start affecting his hitting you could be right. If his legs are fine and plays 154 healthy games he could get Soto induced MVP votes (Soto's on base percentage gets him 140 rbis and he makes a run for the batting title).

One hill I'll die on, and said about Nimmala (and got a lot of push back on the old board) is that if a guy is a someone they should destroy the first league they are sent to. Like they should hit like prime Mike Trout if he was sent to Colorado for 6 weeks. If they don't it already puts a ceiling on them. I don't believe the scouts can tell 100% what they have (like Bo wasn't a first round guy) and high school and college stats can't quite capture it. However the first 6 weeks in the Appalachian league in Buff-Fudge no where tell you a lot.

He hasn't played yet but I assume this is intentional. Like until very recently these guys would show up in some short season league after getting drafted and beat the s*** out of it. Seems like something changed just recently, and these guys are kind of sent to the high performance center instead of games after getting drafted. At the same age Vlad and Bo and were about 2 years away. I think __IF__ he is going to be good he's 2 years away. There's a high chance he'll fail because most do. The great talents often show up fast and the beat the s*** out of every league they are in... if they don't show up fast it often means they aren't good. (always exceptions either way). Kevin Ahrens still hasn't made it.

Insane. There used to be TV. You changed the channel and watched a different channel and at this time a year you could watch NCAA. You could watch Sunday night baseball. You just changed the channel. There is still NCAA for now, but sadly many hotels and bars don't even have normal TV. Was travelling a week ago and hotel did not have normal TV to catch up on NCAA and neither did hotel bar. Insane zombies walking the place with no common ground. I think people underestimate the effect this is having on society in general. Humans no longer work right. My wife teaches and the kids are so messed up. Can't read. Can't have any common reference points. 20 years ago a kid would turn to channel 57 ESPN and watch Sunday night baseball, and they would have common reference point. 10 years ago maybe it become channel 1048 as the cable got weird. Now it doesn't exist and the kid scrolls mindlessly frying their brain. Old guys come in for Sunday night sports and go to the channel they used to watch and not there anymore and become grumpy and non-functional. Happening with all the sports and driving the young and old mentally ill... sad to see. downstream effect of this will be horrible.

Yeah. Jays got away with that last year until they didn't. Problem is not only Lukes, but that it ends up Schneider, then Straw when he comes in for defense ... so the 2 spot in a couple of World Series games was a mess.

went to make sure my mlb tv was set up so I don't have to fool around with the password tonight and miss the first inning and... Buffalo is playing apparently? Did not know they start in March too. Felt sorry for Eloy Jiminez, though I guess not too different than Chicago in March. 30 degrees and 5 people in the stands. Thought in passed years the minors waited a week or so at least until April.

Does this basically mean he already is rehabbing the injury, and will show up in late April or something? I guess you never know for sure. Hopefully nothing too serious.

I get he's not the greatest 2b men, but they have played Horwitz there. They played a one legged Bo Bichette there in the 7 most important games in a generation. So I think they wouldn't have a problem putting Schneider at 2b in an emergency, I think they'd put him there for a few weeks if it was the best choice according to their win-modelling. They might also send Lukes down, as cruel as it is, if it's the best choice, and if they are really cold... though they may not be that cold. Or maybe according to their win-modelling, being cold leads to less wins long term because it makes harder to attract good role players if you are mean to one.

He was the highest paid employee of a 10000 person company and has more knowledge of advanced statistical analysis then the rest the board combined. Not even joking. May be off on the '10000' but the company was at least a few hundred people. He was wrong once in a discussion about how many at bats you need for splits to be meaningful (it is way more than one would think even with advanced stats background) but such things happen even to the greats. Wrong once is hundreds of times better than second highest authority (second highest authority is Laika, wrong 893 times, right 10129 for a 'correct' rate of over 90%, second to Jim at 99.99 %).

Who should have played short stop then? I don't think they would have been opposed to moving him for the right guy (Lindor). Interesting question is whether they would have been better switching Bo and Giminez starting from the beginning last season. I like the FG defensive rating, which tends to go from -20 (worse than a DH) to 20 (elite). Sometimes higher or lower but those are the usual extremes. So say Jiminez is 15 per 162 and Bo is -5 per 162. What happens if you switch them? I guess the expectation is that since there are more hard plays at short stop Jiminez will go up a bit and Bo closer to neutral, so maybe it ends up as 17 and -3 and you are 4 runs better.... Switching guys is a weird thing and those who follow analytics more than I maybe can give a better answer. But the idea is a guys defensive value doesn't change too much switching between infield positions (3b/ss/2b) or outfield (lf/cf/rf). Maybe a couple of runs because of more hard play opportunities at ss or cf. I think people confuse this with 'replacing' a bad defensive player with an awesome one. Like replaing Luis Aerez with Giminez could be 35 runs, or 32 year old Springer with Varsho 30 runs. Just switching guys around isn't nearly that much.

Awesome you got to see that. I was lucky enough to see Guerrero and Bichette in double a. Eastern league still gives the opportunity to see great prospects. Just have to drive a little further for some people. The NY Penn league was the awesome though, and closer drive for me to see several of the teams. Big loss. Any one who says independent ball is the same is wrong. Personally I never got to see St. Catherines. But how awesome would it be for several on this board to go to St. Catherines in June and see the Jays college picks... so anyone saying the new system isn't a loss, doesn't know what they missed. Of course I guess you can go see them in Buffalo when they get there. Certainly it's not like all minor league teams are in Florida now, just really they cut 15% of them. Still a loss. And seems like just a corporate decision, cut teams, more players in Florida and at the complex... And seems to me a lot of draft picks hardly play their first year. Like last year Jo Jo Parker didn't play. Not even injured as far as I know, probably just wanted him hitting off of machines and working on stuff.

In 1990 people at St. Catherines got to watch Carlos Delgado. Unbelievable. Any one here see him? Certainly Manfred is not responsible for St. Catherines losing their ny penn team, but the ongoing collapse of society is the reason for both St. Catherines losing their team, and no more NY Pen nleague. In a sane world minor league teams would be many. There'd be extras. You'd never eliminate them. They'd play within driving distance of the home team. In places like Buffalo, and London, and St. Catherines. A Jays fan could drive around seeing minor players and Doug Ford would come sometimes and cheer. Instead they play in Florida at 11:00 every team not near their home team, just in a swamp with Ron Desantis. If anyone likes that world I guess I am glad it brings you joy. I prefer the world of the late 80s and early 90s.

Baseball is still happening certainly. But watching independent league isn't the same as watching the high draft pick college stars. I remember watching Lind, Aaron HIll, Springer in the NY Penn league and it was awesome seeing players just drafted. Fun going to the local stadium and looking at who made it to the majors. Used to be one or two every single year, since 2020 there has only been one player from our town team make it. Independent ball isn't quite the same quality.

I assume he means he had a great 2021 and went 16-3 or something with a 2.30 ERA in 2022. Big contributor to the Jays first back to back 90 win seasons since the early 90s, and helped the Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Springer/Gausman version of the Jays establish themselves. Obviously not a contributor in 2025 (or 2023 or 2024)

Jake Casey hit a homer today. Great swing. Looks like his Dad or John Olerud. Just going by the stats he doesn't have that kind of talent college stats, college k/bb, and last year k/bb not that elite. Like those guys hit .440 in their best college year with a 40-10 bb/k or something. Olerud never even went to the minors Sean Casey hit like .350 in the minors and was in the majors already at Jake's age. Cool guy to follow and you never know... but probably more on a Cavan Biggio path, get some playing time in the majors and hit .250 .340 .400 in a good season.