Olerud363.354

I'd be interested in a dead simple, not too fance, no over-fitting projection system, that just did an MLB equivalency from minor league numbers. Holliday hit .290 .430 .460 I think in the minors, much of it as a teenager. So one would think that projects pretty nice in the majors. Like there is no player except Juan Soto (barely) with a high minor league on base percentage. Or maybe there is but I don't know who. Holliday should hit .280 .380 .440.

Not all hope is lost for Jo Jo. the original Cavan Biggio also only hit .230 with some walks in Dunnedin (one rung higher at the time) and in no time was in Toronto having the best Cavan Biggio season he could. I still hold out hope Jo Jo will have several Cavan Biggio 2019 style seasons and there will great debates as to who is better? Jo Jo Parker (.239 .355 .403) or Jackson Holliday (.235 .338 .421) in 2029 ??

If Jackson Holliday is having so much trouble after hitting .396 .522 .660 in the low A league, I do wonder how Jo Jo Parker's .231 .374 .374 is going to work out... I figure Jo Jo's chance at being something special is gone, but might be a Cavan Biggio with an earlier start. But if Jackson Holliday is a Cavan Biggio where does that mean Jo Jo will end up?

Fair enough, though I bet someone did.

According to Blue Jays message board when an 19 year old hits .190 with 5 walks and 80 ks he's just learning and it should be years before we give up on him. According to Blue Jays message board (aka Jays Center) when an almost 23 year old Jake Cook hit .100 in low A Florida ball he's just learning a new swing. According to Jays Center, when Samuel Basallo and Jackson Holliday, 1 year and 6 months younger than Jake Cook don't light the world on fire their first 1000 combined PAs in MLB (already) they are complete failures with no hope ever of being fixed.

That is why Jays Center hive mind is wrong, and there is a chance he'll pitch this year. He's not - 19 years old He's not - 3 years away from having to be added to the 40 man He's not - 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA 20 walks and 32 strike-out He's almost 23, putting up the best numbers possible Hive mind has trouble with the concept of chance, and the curve they use is Gaussian with small tails, so unusual cases result in incorrect hive mind output. Remember you guys are still part human and sometimes will frame back in. If it help here is definition of chance according to chatGPT. “Chance” usually means a nonzero possibility something could happen. “No chance” means effectively impossible (probability zero, or so close to zero people treat it as impossible). Examples: “There’s a chance it rains” → possible. “There’s no chance it rains indoors” → impossible under normal assumptions.

It wasn't just 50k. The risk breaking camp with Miles was you lose a roster spot for a couple of weeks and he loses the team a couple of games and a different player that had to be DFAd to keep Miles. The risk with Perry would be similar. You use a roster spot, and one of his options, and he loses a couple of games, maybe has his confidence shaken.

Maybe his pitches don't actually grade that well. I don't know. At the very least he should make his next start in New Hampshire.

I didn't suggest he come up and pitch 120 innings and the playoffs. If he is capable of 25 innings for the MLB club this year maybe now is the time to use them if we think Bieber/Scherzer/Cease are coming back for mid June.

More the reason to call him up. He might not even be available in September. It's rare but there is nothing special about getting called up from A+, happens from time to time. Roberto Osuna was called up from a-ball, with no experience, 2 years after TJ. Nolan Perry is also 2 years after TJ and 2 years older than Osuna was. Plenty of examples of bold out of the box moves that were risky but paid off. Spencer Miles too (so far).

Just saying if Perry is the next Trey, do you wait 3 months to know for sure? Or take a risk and use him when there is a need? There might not even be a need late September if the season goes no where, or on the positive side rotation is Cease, Gausman, Yesivage, Beiber all at full power.

Nolan Perry with another great performance. 6 innings 8 ks. 0 runs. Same age as Trey. Should he make next start in Toronto? Most upside of anybody. I guess you don't to blow an option or anything but he is a year older than Trey was last year. We don't know for sure if another Trey like thing can happen, but why not start using him when there is a need? What is crazier? 1. Calling up a just turned 22 year old, started in Dunedin September 20th then trusting him with the 8 most important games the last 10 years? 2. Calling up a soon to be 23 year old, started in Dunedin, May 29th and trusting him the the 500th most important game in the last 10 years, as a risk move and instead of some 27 year old quadruple a guy.

What if you used wRC+ or something? The league OPS is like .705 which is also the lowest in a while. So not too far below it really, but maybe in most years the right handed hitting outfielders were above the average.

Now that Vlad had a nerve in this elbow nuked and can't feel his fingers do we really think the homerun race with Austin Martin will get any better?

Not talking about their younger years. Just the player they became at full baseball maturity (age 27) Martin .285 hitter, .385 on base, .380 or so slugging with neutral defense. 3 WAR player Vlad .285 hitter .385 on base, .380 or so slugging with slightly negative defense. 2.5 WAR player. I do concede they took different paths to get to about the same place, with Vlad winning a homerun title and hitting balls at 117 mph for his early 20s and Martin working hard to get promoted form Wichita at the same age... but that was then, different paths to the same place.

Imagine day of Berrios trade in 2021 I told you in 5 years Austin Martin and Vladimir Guerrero would have the same numbers at age 27. I would have thought, I guess Vlad didn't turn out to be a regular 50 homer guy, and Martin must have developed some pop. Maybe both .300 hitters with 25 homers. Who could have saw that 2 months in their age 2027 season both are .287 .385 .375 (or so) hitters. The only two I think with on base above slugging. We've had it all wrong, Vlad isn't Luis Aaraez, he's Austin Martin, if Martin didn't develop power (which he didn't).

Every prospect is different. But I'm always shocked at how well bad players had to do in the minors on the road to become bad players. Like you have to hit the s*** out of the low levels to even get a chance to have your weaknesses revealed in double a. Like Bradley Zimmer? Is that a good comparable for Cook? Like people would be happy if he becomes Bradley Zimmer? Or are they hoping for more? https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=zimmer000bra Last year of College Cook and Zimmer were comparable statistically, though no idea of the difficulty of competition. Drafted same age. As has been pointed out Cook did not have a full college hitting career, but did fine his one year. Zimmer started playing the year he got drafted, In the now out of business NYPL hit .300 .400 .460 30 ks 19 walks 45 games. At Cooks age was already in high A .308 .403 .493 in 78 games. Then moved AA where they finally uncovered his Bradley Zimmerness. Like it's such a hard road. So that's why I say the next 6 weeks is super-important for a guy like Jake Cook. If he does have the hand eye to make it, that should show at least enough to see him in Vancouver next year.

But he had 250 PAs last year in College and did quite well. I just think there is inherent hand eye coordination factor with prospects that if they have it, or don't have it, it shows up right away in many cases. If you have it you hit .350 with 20 walks and 10 ks first 6 weeks facing professional pitching, if you don't you hit .150 with 2 walks and 35 ks the first 6 weeks. Cook hasn't done anything extreme in his short sample size either way.

I am betting it would stabilize after a certain k/b ratio and I pointed out Cook is nowhere near that. The main guy I wrote off very early was Emanuel Bonilla after 30 ks with 3 walks in Florida morning ball. Cook is already at 9 walks only 13 ks. If he gets to a 10 k per 1 walk ratio any time soon I'll gladly write him off. I never wrote off Nimmala just lowered his ceiling based on early results and stand by that. More of Anthony Gose with a bit more pop kind of guy... maybe he'll make it. We'll see.

You brought up Gose and Alford earlier. Both were super-fast but neither great base stealers if I remember. Gose is actually kind of comparable to Nimmala age 18, 19, 20. Low average but some secondary skills. had a very nice year at aa at age 20. Alford didn't play full time until age 20, where he had great year at high A+. Those two actually performed in the minors at a relatively young age, and still didn't make it as regulars. Outside of Nimmala no high school/international draftee in the system has reached Alford/Gose level. Proven they can play a full year in mid minors, and not be destroyed by strike-outs. Parker/Bullard might get there this year, or might be even better by the end of the year, or might get eaten alive by their strike outs and be the next Tucker Toman.

I don't think anyone is implying he is a bust. But he is a 22 year old project. A 22 year old College player who was destined to be a major league regular would already be in double a, or dominating A+. It is nice to see he has 9 walks I think against 13 strike-outs. Only 50 at bats but needs to start hitting this year. That may seem extreme, but if he doesn't hit this year, they won't move him to Vancouver next, and then what do you have? An athletic 23 year old in low A Florida ball, still trying to learn how to hit? Not a great chance to be a major leaguer.

If Davis Schneider has success with another team this entire situation has a chance to be as bad as post 1993. Why not just play Schneider every day during injuries? His career averages are .210 .322 .392 and he'd probably drift back to that with regular at bats. It's like one moment the guy is hitting lead-off in the World Series, and the next he is in Buffalo replaced by Lenyn Sosa (1 walk), and Pinango ?? Should have just played Schneider every day through the injuries. Would have got the average up to .200 and made the catches you need to make, and out-walked Sosa 30-1 and out defensed Pinango 0 to -10

The back-up first base plan is Okamoto to first and call up McCadoo?

Best case scenario is that they talk to him about playing through injuries too much, and told him that if he gets banged up take a couple of days off... and he's listening to them with no arguments to stay in the game.

Fangraphs now has the Jays division chances all the way up to 3%. 48% chance to make the playoffs. It was about 20% lower like a week ago. I actually don't know how much their system is weighting small sample size mlb performance. Like all of a sudden it likes the Jays better because Miles did good for a few games? And now they have a good projection for starting pitching 5? I've never done much here, except report the fangraphs odds. The beef you guys have is with fangraphs not me. Need to write them a letter or boycott. Are you rooting for the Yankees today? Might be another rain-out. Weird weather in the North East USA. Texas lost again. Thank you Angels. Blue Jays are in WC3 heading to Sacramento. Now it gets strategic. WC3 we get to go to Sacramento. WC2 we have to go to NY... which one is the better matchup? Too early to blow games to avoid Yankees first round. Just need to keep winning.