Olerud363.354

One reason I'm pretty skeptical of the 'adjustment period' thing is that mental toughness is such a huge part of the game, that even if some cultural adjustment factor is effecting performance, that itself is a flag, given all the trials and tribulations down the road. Like the guy who shows up to Florida, doesn't even notice he's in Florida with alligators, MAGAs, and old people, is able to chill with the MAGAs (some on his own team) despite them not speaking or liking his language. That's the guy who won't notice he's gone 0/15 in a big city some day and will chill and rebound. That might be the guy who can have a good relationship with the hitting coach's and fix mechanical problems. That's the guy who will joke around after Jeff Hoffman blows the biggest game of the year (after the blowing the biggest game of the century so far) and next week go win player of the week and keep his team afloat. Sanchez is doing good the last month for sure. Maybe his slump was just a slump and he's a great guy able to adjust to every situation and he didn't even notice he was in a slump or in Florida.

What is with the insults? This entire board has gone to hell, with long time posters (first Grant, then Spanky) apparently gone for life now because you guys just let the insult culture get out of hand. It's pretty unacceptable to start making jokes about mental health. Lucky enough never to have been down that road but I know people who have. If you make that comment about somebody who is actually on meds and struggling it is massively inappropriate and even dangerous. Just because you don't like somebody's posting style don't make it personal, don't insult them, and don't make comments about meds. Right now the Blue Jays hitters, at every single level ** (including the majors) are under-performing. It's a pretty reasonable thing to do to scan other teams top prospects and see how age comparable guys are doing just to put things in perspective. If you disagree then disagree nicely. ** Some guys in New Hampshire are doing good, but even there there may be the park (which is great for left handed hitters) at play.

So how do we know that Justin Gonzales isn't the one that has had his numbers knocked down? Your theory is that "some" but not all Dominican players are getting numbers knocked down because of adjustment. How do we know which ones are getting numbers knocked down? What if a guy was an absolute monster generational talent, and would have hit .350 .500 .800 in A ball, but was having trouble adjusting and got knocked down to .280 .370 .450 We don't know the baseline. All I am saying is treat all players the same. You don't know which ones are performing to their true talent level, so if you want to say 'on aveage domincans get their stats knocked down so in that context Justin Gonzalez may well be a generational talent' that's fine. But don't just make excuses for Blue Jays players only.

It's not stupid. It's a pretty simple concept. If there is some adjustment period for young prospects coming from the Dominican then it should be applied to every player. You can't cherry pick. If you think that Jesus Sanchez's .200 .300 .300 line gets a mulligan than that is fair, as long as Justin Gonzales' line also gets an adjustment. No Jays prospect have performed since Moreno, and this board has a million excuses. Dominicans adjusting to the states, new swings, young for the level. Fair enough. But all this should be applied equally to all prospects from all teams. How do we rate the other prospects like Justin Gonzales who presumably face the same obstacles but perform?

Here's another one in the 'minor league players that hit like Cavan Biggio' category https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bazzan000tra .252 in about 600 minor plate appearances, now a rookie of the year candidate (small sample size). Cavan Biggio's minor league triple slash (2244 PAs) - .249 .374 .409 Travis Bazzana's minor league triple slash (613 PAs) - .252 .391 .435 Bazzana is a bit better I guess. Every Blue Jays prospect minor league triple slash (NA) - .244 .377 .417 (approximately)

The Mets have kept Soto operational. The idea of the transfer program is to reward teams that are giving their players good coaching/sign stealing/supplements whatever it is, and giving those teams under-performing players which they could help. It would be a very rare program only for very special cases like Vlad. A generational talent that should be on a team that can keep him operating at his inherent skill level.

I wonder how Vlad would do being a #2 to a Judge or Soto, or Ohtani. Watching them hit 25 degree 110 milers 3 times a week. he would want to get in on the fun. Should be a 'for the good of the game...' rule in baseball, where commissioner can transfer a player to a different team, if the team is not getting the most out of his talents. Vlad could be transferred to Yankees or Dodgers. Hoffman probably also needs a transfer.

I figured maybe he has a tell and they hammerred him 9th inning Saturday... not really the exit Vs of the three hits were I think 85, 75 and 95. All at good launch angle though.

I think it goes back to sign stealing, game planning, whatever magic is going on in modern baseball. Everyone has a system, some more nefarious than others. I think the Jays system, which worked in the playoffs is broke now, or other teams figured it out. Vlad and others knew what was coming in 2025. Now they don't and leading to slap hitting reacting at the last minute. I'm not saying pitchcom hacking, but just finding tells, sign stealing, someone mentioned the coach's were relaying, but now they can't because of some positioning rule. Right now Orioles seem to know what is coming. Don't flinch on every ball from Yesivage and Hoffman, walk 10 times, clutch homers and extra base hits at just the right moment. Wouldn't put it past them that at the worst moment, all is lost, Mike Elias going to lose his job... they hack the pitchcom and all of a sudden Colten Clowser wins 4 games in 6 days.

Until last week when all of a sudden they (especially Cowser) started getting clutch hits at just the right time. They were terrible. Then a week ago they weren't and you have Basallo flapping like Aaron Judge just before Cowser hits his 4th game changing extra base hit in his last 20 at bats. I don't think Basallo was giving him the sign, too over the top, Basallo flapping was a decoy to obfuscate the real system that is giving them the next pitch.

June 5th 2026. 37 years since opening night at the Skydome. There might be joy 7-2 Jays. bases loaded Vlad up. Can get a lead even Hoffman could save -- swings at slider low and away, double play, looks like he was expecting a fastball. Got fooled. all of a sudden 7-4 in the 8th. Varland vs Cowser. What an eye Cowser has. Taking the tough breaker just off the plate 3-1 count. Gets around on 99 mph fastball. Pulls it. Got started early. Homerun Orioles lead!!!!! Cowser. Really gets around on that fastball. 42,000 Jays fans in shock. Pete Alonso pumping his fist waiting for Cowser at homeplate.

MLB in the modern times. It is just sign stealing figuring out what pitch is coming. That is it. That is all it is. If your teams system is working your team wins with joy and clutch hits and Colten Cowser becoming a hero. If your teams system is figured out and stopped there is no joy and Vladimir Guerrero Jr doesn't know what is coming so hits 5 homers on the season.

Number one thing that worries me is just the bizarre downturn in on base percentage and walks. I don't understand the game anymore. Orioles all of a sudden play Tampa and Jays, go 5-2 getting hits right when they need them. Basalo flapping his arms like Aaron Judge at second just before a big homer... Colten Cowser... f*** Colten Cowser. No one. Nothing. 1 homer. Power worse than Vlad. doomed. Orioles doomed. All is lost. Desperate. then mysteriously. May 24th - Colten Cowser - Out of nowhere walk off homer May 25th - Colten Cowser - Out of nowhere walk off homer again May 30th - Colten Cowser - key double at just the right time, like he knew, like they all new May 31st - Basalo flaps wings Colten Cowser 3 run homerun Basalo was just a decoy. The flapping was too over the top. Whatever they are really doing is more subtle. Orioles have a system. They turn it on and just the right time, like the Royals did in 2015. Don't risk getting caught, only use it in leverage... and to be honest another team in 2025 got a lot of hits at just the right time. That other team caught the attention of MLB and they figured it out and stopped, but no one knows how the Orioles are doing it. Expect a big run with Colten Cowser getting hits at just the right time until the MLB figures out what they are doing. Expect a big slump with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ending at .267 5 homers 52 rbis (155 games) unless the Jays get a new system.

I don't know if I buy that. The good prospects hit at every level. Does the adjustment get applied to everyone? Justin Gonzales, Red Sox 5ish prospect showed up 18 from the Dominican and was fine. However adjusted for cultural adjustments does this mean he actually deserves a .350 .450 .600 line. https://www.milb.com/player/justin-gonzales-821100 Cultural adjustment factor - it is very hard to come in from High School, Domincan, or College (if learning new swing) all minor prospects should be given 40% boost first year in professional ball. Doesn't help the Jays prospects though unless this is something unique to Jays organization. Justin Gonzales - .298 .380 .420 raw - .350 .450 .600 with cultural adjustment Juan Sanchez - .202 .299 .320 - .250 .360 .430 with cultural adjustment Still behind other teams prospects even with the CAF (Cultural adjustment factor).

Orioles hangout must be rocking. Imagine your generational hitter 21 year old Basallo takes a mighty swing, and looks like he f***ed his shoulder and season, maybe even career are over, and another horrible loss to the Blue Jays... But then a miracle. Win the game, turn around the season, and Basallo is just fine and is out stealing signs for another great Orioles victory the next morning. It is a harsh world and in many corners there is not joy, but at this moment there is joy in Orioles Hangout (I am not an Orioles fan and would never go there, and will always be here no matter how sad the vibes, but I do imagine that Disney World and Orioles Hangout are the two happiest places in the world right now)

Top 5 prospects and comparables 1. King - Randy Johnson 2. Perry - Garret Cole 3. Nimmalla - Miguel Tejada 4. Keys - Matt Olson 5. Jo Jo Parker - Cavan Biggio

Today's positive farm report Shane Bieber - rocked in low A Dunedin, but on the positive side... stuff looked great? Twitter says so kind of. I don't know. Jo Jo Parker - 0 for 4, 4 ks, such is life for a Cavan Biggio like player. Juan Sanchez - now over .200. actually positive considering he was .100 like a couple of weeks ago. Sean Keys - another homerun. 12 on the year. Max - 3 hitless or something ... this in Buffalo. Forearm felt great. King (last night) - 5 innings 8ks couple of walks - 32 innings 22 walks 47 ks Perry sort of rough outing for him. 4 innings 3 walks 4 ks.

Jays, Orioles, As, White Sox, Twins, Red Sox, Rangers, Astros. simple math is 2 spots 8 teams, 1 in 4 chance Jays get one. if you look at quality of teams boost it up a bit. 40% maybe. That is about what the projection systems say. After today's loss Jays are 42% or so to make playoffs. Not a coin flip. A little less. Life is tough. This season is tough. Not all the injured players will come back healthy, others will get injured. The bullpen has been overworked. It's a 40% chance. they make the playoffs. Could be worse. We all thought it would be better.

Hopefully, but neither Barger, nor Kirk have played in a rehab game yet and both keep getting pushed back. How do we know Barger won't end up needing Tommy John and Kirk another surgery if his first isn't healing. And Bieber just got roughed up in a-ball. I don't care if his stuff looked good or even measured good. Last year in his two rookie ball starts 4.1 innings 1 hit 1 walk 10 ks. Something seems off about the entire thing. He is facing the Jake Cook and Juan Sanchez's of the world, and as much as we love them they shouldn't get a hit off Bieber if he is right. We will see. I like to see things go smoothly and on schedule, when they don't you start wondering, life is cruel, life is harsh, it doesn't always work out.

Friends who are Philly fans don't seem to want him back... would Don Mattingly want a reunion?

He was 1-2 with an ERA of 40.50 in the 2024 NLDS. He had his moments but arguably lost them a playoff series. Actually pitched very well in the 2023 playoffs though.

Jake Cook 2/3 3 walks, up to .210 .360 .250 or something 15 walks 16ks or so. Not hitting like a guy with a new power swing, more like another Cavan Biggio. Along with Joe Joe Parker that is two Cavan's. Not an insult. Cavan was a fine player at times, disliked by some. These new Cavan's may be a bit faster, a bit stronger we will see. Will frustrate people when they put up .230 .350 .350 lines, but that will probably be worth a 120 OPS+ in 2029 MLB. Sanchez continues to make his numbers respectable too. Up to about .200 .300 .300. Sean Keys 3/4. .280 .407 .545 for the year. Is he the next Matt Olson? The guy we will talk about when bringing up guys who hit .220 for a year but still made it? Career average of .242 but plenty of time to increase it.

Was he talking about Vlad? I was very sad when in 1995 they dissed John Olerud just because he had single digit homeruns. I demand that the new John Olerud/Mark Grace type we have gets respect. I can't even figure out how Vlad's season so far is even possible. Apparently his chase rate is the worst it's been, but he hits .290 .390 .380 with 30 walks and 25 ks. His stats are the passive guy who is happy to go with the pitch. Professional hitter. Even Rance Mullinicks hit with more pop.

You absolutely can take minor league batting averages and cap future based on them. As long as you consider large samples, park factors, league factors, A guy hitting .230, in 1000 minor league at bats in leagues that hit .280 and entering a 1995-2010 offense level has no chance. A guy hitting .230, in 1000 minor league at bats in leagues that hit .230 and entering a 2026 offense level has a chance. The way to "win" this argument and "burn" me is to bring up the league offence factors in the 2026 American league and the minor league Arjun plays in, and point I am an old man just thinking 1996 numbers. That's the way you win the argument, not sample sizes of 70 at bats from George Springer.

To be clear, Tommy Pham does really pass the spirit of the test. Hit like s*** for like 1000 at bats, maybe more. But he rebounded quite well. He started to hit better every year, better at 22 then 21, better at 23. Tommy Pham worked hard. Hit better and better every year, so many years. Many years. So many years passed. But tommy never gave up. At age 22 he hit .like .290, and then again at age 25 I think. Some injuries but he kept working. Then Tommy had a miracle. By age 26 he was hitting .320 in the minors and finally got 2 plate appearances in the major leagues. Tommy never gave up. His slow start didn't stop him. At age 29 Tommy finally got like 2/3 of a major league season in. Will Arjun be like Tommy Pham? If so I guess we see him semi full time in the year 2035 along side 36 year old Vladdy. Looking forward to it.