Olerud363.354

Problem: Jordan Romano broke. Munoz consistently awesome. Jays have no Munoz. Jays have no one with acceptable splits. If you look at splits Little was best of awful choices. Jordan Romano 2022 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 61 139 123 11 22 3 0 2 3 0 11 35 3.18 .179 .268 .252 .520 31 4 4 0 0 2 0 .233 96 49 vs LHB 56 119 109 10 22 2 0 2 3 0 10 38 3.80 .202 .269 .275 .544 30 1 0 0 0 2 1 .290 105 58 Andre Munoz 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 61 135 116 10 21 3 0 1 2 1 13 43 3.31 .181 .276 .233 .509 27 1 3 0 2 1 0 .270 107 47 vs LHB 60 119 100 8 15 3 0 1 3 0 15 40 2.67 .150 .265 .210 .475 21 2 1 2 1 2 0 .233 92 34 Jeff Hoffman 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 69 142 127 22 26 4 0 7 6 2 13 41 3.15 .205 .284 .402 .685 51 1 1 1 0 0 0 .241 85 92 vs LHB 67 145 126 21 28 10 0 8 1 0 14 43 3.07 .222 .313 .492 .805 62 0 3 1 1 1 1 .263 115 118 Seranthony 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 61 145 121 12 16 3 0 1 14 2 22 51 2.32 .132 .269 .182 .451 22 5 1 0 1 0 0 .214 46 32 vs LHB 60 116 101 13 28 5 0 4 5 2 14 28 2.00 .277 .371 .446 .816 45 0 1 0 0 2 0 .348 166 1 Little 2025 Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ vs RHB 75 156 127 16 25 4 0 1 2 1 27 46 1.70 .197 .340 .252 .592 32 4 1 0 1 4 5 .296 98 73 vs LHB 72 139 118 12 23 5 2 1 0 3 18 45 2.50 .195 .304 .297 .601 35 1 1 1 1 0 2 .301 103 67

Take a look at Hoffman and Dominquez 2025 splits against lefties. Lefties slug .480 or so against them. There was no good choice here sadly. Statistically Little probably the choice even considering bad second half. Maybe Little wasn't the choice going deeper into advanced. However Laika and others I think claim Little's stuff+ is the best out of the choices.

People aren't factoring that the other choices were also bad. Little was a bad choice. Munoz was the right choice. Romano (pre 2024) was the right choice. We don't have that. Best choice statistically was Fischer, but I assume there is some more advanced underlying data not good with him.

Not True. Dominquez splits are horrible against lefties. Hoffman is a homerun machine. Even if you accept that the second half version of Little is the real version, even if guys lay-off the curve and walk a lot, they still weren't hitting for power off him. Little's 'bad' second half splits were something like .200 .350 .350. This is not good. However Hoffman and Dominquez splits, 3 lefties in a row, were probably worse. Like lefties hit .270 .370 .440 And that's Little's bad split, his season split is much better.

Very sad. Big Mariner party in Toronto? I hope not but Krakens came in wearing Mariners Jersey's and had victory. Have they reserved party place for 1:00 in morning (after interviews and Big Papi send Jays to Cancoon). Second big happy Mariners party in Toronto in 4 years?? Mariners happy. Waving Fork thing. Laughing Dancing. Blue Jays sad. Seems tickets are cheapest I've seen for playoff game this year. Jays fan base traumatized? Too sad to see happy Mariners again?

Depends on what the more advanced information was saying. Based on season stats it was a justified decision. Based on a split going back N appearances it was a bad decision, especially if you choose N (21 or something) to go back to the Dodgers game where little gave up 3 runs in 0 innings. Season stats: I'll repeat myself. Correct choice is our own Munoz. Or 2023 Jordan Romano. Or a guy like Osuna who catches fire from A-ball. None of those available. Using season Stats Little may have been correct given other choices like failed medical homer-king Hoffman. N last appearances stats: Little was terrible using this metric, but need to know what the underlying 'stuff' metrics were saying about Hoffman, Little and Rodriquez. Like Hoffman was throwing 94 with bad control 3 weeks ago. Rodriquez has control problems too and bad against lefties. Need to know what the sort of 'last 10 appearances' more advanced stuff has to say about these guys, and I guess health status too.

After a couple of night sleep just convinced there was no good move there other than perhaps keeping Gausmann in a couple more batters. 1. Hoffman high homerun rate 2. Rodriquez bad against lefties and high walk rate. 3. Little best OPS against righties, low homerun rate, but very high walk rate and poor recent performance. There was no Munoz to go to is the problem. There was no prime Jordan Romano or Osuna to go to. If you rate relievers on a simple 1 (lights out) 2 (good) and 3 (shaky but sometimes gets it done) system, Jays have all 3s. Seattle has a 1 and two or three 2s. Brayden Fischer is the only guy with the numbers of a 2... but most people seem to think that is fake (at least they don't get mad when he doesn't pitch leverage).

Right move I guess was Gausman for 7... maybe. Sigh. Just all the options could have gone wrong and have gone wrong. Hoffman can and has given up 2 homers an inning. Gaussman can and has been shaky after 5. Varland can and has given up game changing 3 run homeruns twice in the playoffs. Real problem is that there are no shutdown relievers in the bullpen. Something like this was bound to happen and no one like Munoz or even Brash available to the Jays.

It's just a repeated pattern of Cherry Picking with Grant that has gone back ... 15 years? 20 years? At this point I can't even remember when I started posting with this group. I guess this group goes back at least to 2007 because I remember some strange lady constantly posting about Aaron Hill and his stubby legs, and she hated him just like Grant hates the Mariners and Suarez. Edit: What I mean is the same group of posters have been posting on different iterations of message boards, going back to the team board in the 2000s,

Little Johnny watching game with Dad on Rogers Sportsnet Channel. Little Johnny loves the Blue Jays. He is only 11. He loves life. He thinks the world is a happy place. His Dad tells him about Kelly Gruber. Little Johnny is like "f*** off" dad about Kelly Gruber this is my time (he learned the bad word from John Schneider because Sportsnet censors not doing their job. Little Johnny watches Suarez hit grand slam. Little Johnny cries for 2 hours. Little Johnny sad the next day. Little Johnny tells his Dad "Suarez has driven me from the game. Is it weak of me to give up?". Dad "No son. Suarez has driven me from the game too." Neither watches Sunday night game 6 or any other game ever again. Eugenio Suarez drives those two and many more away from the game.

According to fangraphs he's had 7 seasons of 3.5 WAR or more and 33.1 lifetime WAR. 3 good seasons with Cincinnati, 2 with Seattle. 1 with Arizona. And one split. He's been a good player everywhere he's played. He will end being in terms of fWAR at a level with Jose Bautista and Jesse Barfield. He's had 49 homers twice and was probably a decent 3rd basemen in his prime, but maybe lost a bit now. This Seattle is bad thing is lunacy. Seattle is a good organization. Toronto and Seattle are both good organizations this decade. They win about 90 and this year are on good playoff runs. Seattle has kept Munoz healthy, Toronto broke Jordan Romano so Seattle probably gets to go to the World Series and will likely give the Dodgers some trouble.

Slam dunk choice was Jordan Romero to get redemption for 2022. Unfortunately Jays couldn't keep him healthy and Mariners have kept Munoz healthy to anchor their bullpen. That might just be luck. From 1985 to 1992 Jays kept Henke healthy and performing, Duane Ward from 1988 to 1993 despite pitching up to 120 innings as a reliever. Ward's arm fell off after that. In 2015 20 year old Osuna and 22 year old Sanchez were the top guys. Osuna from A-ball. Sanchez had a low homer rate as a reliever in 2014-2016. Shut-down back end of bullpen is missing compared to 92/93 and 2015 teams.

Just did a quick check of his stats on baseball-reference and looks like he was his usual self in September. Lots of walks no homers. He hadn't given up a homer since July -- https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=littlbr02&year=2025&t=p. I am wondering where all these stats that he had a 6.00 ERA or something last 20 games are coming from? Is it starting at the 3 run game in LA. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=littlbr02&t=p&year=2025 Guy gave up 2 homeruns all year in 78 appearances. Walked way too many. Unfortunately he gave up the third homerun last night. Thinking probably was just that he has lowest homer rate, so put him in to avoid a solo shot. 3rd pitch solo shot ofcourse. Hoffman gave up 15 homeruns all year so wouldn't have been thrilled with him their either. I guess Dominquez would have been the right decision. I put some of this on the front office and the high (a.k.a. low) performance team. Difference in the series may end up being that the Mariners have a great shut-down bullpen right now. Mariners have kept Munoz healthy since 2022 and developed a couple of other guys. Jays have not kept their guy (Romano) healthy and failed to develop other options. Hoffman may not be exactly healthy either based on his numbers and whispers of shoulder issues.

IKF in. Santander out. Presumably Santander has back issues. Other options Disable him for Loperfido Straw Schneider Disable him for Bo who may have made more progress since Saturday. Disable Santander for France Disable Santander for R.J. Schreck (on 40 man? if not put Santander on 60 day since he would be out for WS anyway). Disable Santander for Classe Catch Heineman and Kirk DH Who likes IKF better than any of the above? Are they keeping some options ready in case they have to disable Santander?

80 hit tool. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Luis Arraez, Ernie Clement. 80 hit tool with 70 power and 65 plate discipline, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 80 hit tool with 80 defense - Ernie Clement.

That's the simulation theory. Universe is a simulation and re-uses code. Run the same code. 40 year old vtrn' starter gets destroyed to ruin momentum. Wonder how long the leash is. Dickey went bunt, homerun, walk. Have they game-planned what to do in that scenario? Will they get a Bassett or Varland in right away? Hopefully don't have to worry about that. Do not want repeat of 2015 game 4.

One hill I will die is that the crazy fan reactions do track probability shifts. Lose first 2 games of series you basically go from 50% to 12% chance of winning the series. Good news is that since the Jays regularly go down 0-2 in the ALCS they should by chance come back and win from one of these 0-2 deficits.

If you are 32 years old this week or younger you have never seen in your life time the Toronto Blue Jays win game 1 or game 2 of an ALCS. Last time they did that was October 6th 1993. Chicago White Sox and big Frank Thomas went down 0-2 at home. White Sox did get it back to Chicago though. Last time Toronto won an ALCS game 3 2015. A game 4 2016, A game 5 2015. A game 6 1993. A game 7. NEVER. They have never won a game 7 in any round. The Toronto Blue Jays have never won a game 7. No one living or not living has ever seen that. If it is your 40th birthday this week or you are older than 40 you have been alive for a Toronto Blue Jays game 7. Otherwise you have never even seen one.

Can be like the Yankee fans.... if we even win one gotta go on social media and be like 'listen Mariner fans... I like you guys... I really do... but we told you not to let us win... Now Louis Varland starts tomorrow followed by Brandon Little... its over. Its really over. You shouldn't have let us win."

Imagine they trade for Kwan and get Arraez. People would lose their s***. Probably justifiably so but would be funnier then the Keirmaier/IKF acquisitions after losing out on Ohtaniu. Probably they go down to the wire for that "Japanese Babe Ruth" guy before getting Kwan and Arraez.

Bo injury sucks. Got away with it for a while but eventually it would cost. Last night Buffalo Boys hitting 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 8th, and I believe one of the worst hitters in baseball (Giminez) hitting 9th. Love what the Jays have done developing older, un-heralded guys, but lack of healthy Bichette and Santander hurts.

Adjusted for park Mariners offense is a bit better despite the strike-outs. Atlanta Braves won the 2021 World Series with a similar high strike-out low average team. Last scrappy batting average based team to win the World Series?? 2015 Kansas City Royals I guess.

If you go back 5 years long term Mariners have more wins than the Jays. Is their division easier? With Houston in it, and 2023 World Champions I have a hard time believing that. Run differential last 5 years Jays win. However that is mostly from 2021. What I am saying is this. Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners going back 5 years are pretty even. Going back 2 days they are not very even. The Seattle Mariners are far, far better. Going back 5 weeks they are not even. Seattle Mariners are far better. Going back 1 year even again. Should we hire Seattle's hitting coach for Vlad? Or Aaron Judge's hitting coach? (Yankees apparently want our hitting coach).

Don't get me wrong. No hate for Vlad. Could make the hall of fame if he can avoid Prince Fielder problems and keeps on hitting missiles on the ground until he is 40. Or maybe he will find the next mode someday... maybe in Seattle mid-week. Then we will all love him again.

I feel like long term trends are just not what humans are meant to react to. Like I guess long term tiger migration pattern maybe less important than short term tiger positioning so only need to react to short term. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - hit ball hard. Mostly on ground. If go up in sky sometimes goes out. If hit ball up in sky 3 times in 3 days that happens from time to time... doesn't mean he has found Aaron Judge mode. Will likely hit ball on ground lots still.