Olerud363.354
-
Posts
590 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Toronto Blue Jays Videos
2026 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking
Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Olerud363.354
-
When I say no one knows what the Dodgers owe for the Ohtani contract, my understanding is they are paying 70 million dollars a year from 2034 to 2043. Every year from 2024 to 2033 they have to buy an investment (like a 10 year bond) that matures in 10 years to a value of 70 million. Inflation doesn't matter. Interest rates do. But inflation does matter to the extent it effects bond interest rates. Interest rates on a 10 year investment will change year to year. I think in 2024 that investment was 46 million, it probably would have been a bit more in 25 and a bit more still in 2026. Maybe I am wrong about how this works... but my understanding is they have to buy an 10 year investment again in 27, 28, 29 until 33. If something weird happens with inflation and interest rates the amount of money they have to invest year to year. could change by quite a bit.
-
To summarize. The Dodgers don't know what they owe for the Ohtani contract in "present day" dollars. And neither do you.
-
I guess most people here except for Jim were born after 1980. Jim should remember the 70s I think. Most of you should remember the covid inflation. Not to be polictical but Donald J. Trump is looking for a new FED chair to lower interest rate to like below 0 or something. This could increase inflation and will mean Dodgers need to pay more into their fund. Don't any of you trade bonds? I guess that is a boring job except for 1970 to 1985 and 2020 to 2023. However the entire narative that the Dodgers owe 460 is only true if we are in stable inflation/interest rate period.
-
Losing the way they did was probably worth 10-15 million compared to losing in LA in game 5 (2 extra home games). I also motivated Ed Rogers apparently. Other than winning losing the most longest, drawnout, painful way is best (as compared to losing a dud World Series). 2023 Diamondbacks didn't have half this excitement around them going into 2024.
-
The 10 year rate is not a short term fluctuation. It's medium term. Since Ohtani's deferral is about 10 years the 10 year is probably the most important proxy. When he signed the contract 30, 10 and 2 year were all about 5% I think. Now 30 is still about 5%, 10 year 4%, and 2 year is 3.5%. 10 year still fluctuates a lot because the crisis that can effect it (bad recessions, pandemic, inflation) play out on a few years time frame.
-
Partly true I guess. I don't think the Dodger's downside risk is 0. The present day value of the contract is not fixed. Not to get political but if Trump get's his way with the U.S. Federal reserve the present day of that contract, which was about 460 when it was signed, could be 600 million before long. Other teams probably are not comfortable playing the bond market. How does this work for CBT? I assume they have to redo it every year.
-
10 year rate in the US is down from about 5% to 4% since Ohtani signed the contract. So contract is already probably gone from 460 million or so to over 500 million... Not that I actually know how they invest the money. Maybe they bought ultra funds 3x silver with it and have a few billion already.
-
Team isn't putting money on the books down the line. They put the money in year to year in an safe investment that will mature at the right amount when it is due. It's basically just bond trading. Still an advantage for rich team, because poor team doesn't want to risk bond prices going up. At least that is my understanding. Actually curious what kind of loop holes there are. Like can the Dodgers invest in municipal bonds? Can the Blue Jays invest in Canadian bonds? What are the rules for the escrow account ? We don't know what the Dodgers will pay for Ohtani's contract because we don't know what interest will be year to year.
-
My understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that only rich teams would do this, because the risk is interest rate fall and they have put almost all of the 70 million in. I believe that when the 10 year rate was 5% it was 46 million they had to put in, now it's probably more like 53 or something, and if a crisis happened and 10 year fell (it fell to below 1 during Covid) they'd have to put 67 million in or something.
-
I have to imagine posting on this board is at about the selfishness level of Fortnite,. Hope everyone has a decent amount of money left over at the end of the month, and the family is well fed and warm. Little Johny - Daddy can I get a Fortnite subscription for christmas to get more skins and emotes. Daddy - Shut up. That shits expensive. I am not paying 10 bucks a month for that garbage. Little Johny - That's OK Daddy. We can play catch instead of Fortnight. Daddy - SHUTUP! I am trying to post. These f***ers on Jays Centre are out of their minds. Little Johny - I'm hungry. Above probably not really true though I guess. Many of the posters here have excellent political skills and hold down 350,000 k or more jobs at which they don't do much except just post here all day. And little Johny gets to be on 3 different 10k a year baseball teams.
-
That's not the comparison. Comparison would be 1. 60k for non-profit, 2. 100k for corporation but give 40k to the non-profit. (and hopefully tax law is ethical enough that the 40k you give to non-profit is not taxed). Maybe for certain reasons 1 is still better. I mean realistically nobody is going to do 2. because of human nature with money at that scale. Very difficult to give away 40% of your salary. However if you really wanted to that's the two choices.
-
You have to have the right personality for option 2. Take things calm. Be OK with DL stints to rest-up. Cheer your team-mates on even when you aren't in the game. Cheer, Cheer, Cheer. Be positive. Listen to the coaches. Cheer for Justin Bruihl types when they take your spot. Don't secretly cheer for their failure. Don't pout. Don't go home. One day maybe you don't make the playoff roster, but handle it right and the next thing you know your the game 7 setup man (or even starter!).
-
A very good post. When you reject money you are like saying... someone else could do better with this money than I can. If you are mean you can buy a bigger boat. If you are nice you can buy kids sneakers and make a little baseball stadium for them to play in (cost a few million), a few million more you can build more little kid baseball stadiums. Or donate it to cancer research.... or food for the hungry. Or buy another boat and support the boat builders. I mean I guess there is point where you also should have the right to earn less. However it has to be a really well thought out decision. Like 1) would you rather get 30 starts a year and give up 47 homers in Colorado for 10 million 2) 18 starts a year, and get tested in the bullpen (and keep in mind you never know when you need a game 7 setup man) and earn 50 million and build little kids baseball stadiums With these things you need a notepad and a pen and write out pros and cons of the options.
-
It kind of feels hypothetically if he was a free agent the playoff run would be 200 million extra. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an absolute legend who sometimes acts like Josh Bell (the minor league numbers, 2021, the homerun contest, the exit velocities, the gold glove, now the playoff run, but now and then (like all of 2023) he acts like Josh Bell). Without the playoff run people would be concerned about the long (6-10 months) stretches as Josh Bell, but the playoff run re-affirms that he is and always has been a legend. All a moot point now since he is signed. Hopefully whatever was different (mechanical adjustment, a little rest, just excited about games that really matter?) carries over to 2026.
-
Interesting what Vlad would get in this environment as he and Tucker are comparable in WAR. Tucker I guess a bit better per 162, However Vlad two years younger and his post-season adds to the marketing package that would have been put together. 1. Greatest minor league hitter ever 2. Best exit velocities in the game. 3. Most hard hit balls this decade. 4. Gold glove defense at first, and could play third with generational arm. 5. Greatest post-season ever all against elite pitching (show that shot of him homering against Ohtani, and Snell too). 6. LIfe time .280 30 homers 100 rbis per 162, same as Sota. 7. Already perennial all star and most un-tapped potential in the game. Could easily win multiple triple crowns. Asking price 14 years $625 million. The Kawai Leonard type playoff hero your team needs and could very well give your fans the thrill of a triple crown. Not saying all that is true but that is the package an agent would put together and try to get 600 million.
-
Bo or Tucker Based On Their Projected Contracts?
Olerud363.354 replied to Jays24's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I assume someone has proper translations and projections, but roughly speaking I assume it is at least a 100 point hit off of career OPS. Murakami's career Japanese OPS is is .950 and Kazuma Okamoto's .850. Seiya Suzuki was basically .950 Japan .850 U.S. Ohtani was the opposite. .850 Japan, .950 U.S. But that is an unique situation (came over at 23 and was pitching part time). So bullshitting it Okamoto would be a .250 .325 .425 hitter and Murakami .260 .350 .500. -
Bo or Tucker Based On Their Projected Contracts?
Olerud363.354 replied to Jays24's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
With the exception of Ohtani and related Japanese add revenue I don't think 'star power' helps at all. Just winning. I think there is some evidence that a strong off-season leads to an attendance spike, but not sustainable without winning. You can glance at Jays all time attendance here https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/ Making playoffs instantly led to the return of 3 million attendance in both 2016, and 2023. Otherwise not a lot makes a difference. Attendance wasn't great with Delgado at near triple crown level (2000, 2003). Attendance wasn't spectacular with Clemens. Attendance isn't too great historically with these 87 win teams that aren't really in it. Jays historical pattern since 1994 Playoff contention 3 million no playoff contention 1.5 million - 2.5 million (depending how far away from last playoff contention) -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Olerud363.354 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
? Both of us said "if true" Maybe you were directing your comment at "PunchoutPitch" who-ever that is... I am not fully convinced what "PunchoutPitch" has to say is true either, I didn't bother to check secondary sources but did qualify it with an if statement. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
Olerud363.354 replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Sounds like it is more like 12 years (if the 400 is true). -
I see it is a reference to the other thread. Still curious if he likes Shaprio or not. He's indicated in other threads that Jays are behind in some pitching development areas, which is interesting. If people on a public forum are expressing that the Jays are "behind" then the Jays should know that people "think" they are behind and just disagree. As an outsider it's still hard to know what to make of this management team. Last few years it's an 88 win a year team in the same group with maybe Baltimore and Seattle. Just with very recent and dramatic playoff success. Which is great and tends to make us think they are all geniuses, but this time last year we thought they were all morons.
-
If he keeps the team competitive for the next 5 years and wins a World Series he will be at Gillick's level. Hard to compare eras because jobs have changed. Would people compare Atkins to Gillick? It seems like Shapiro is more the guy in charge of baseball ops, even if he doesn't do day to day details. At about the same point GIllick had two AL Easts, no playoff series wins. Shatkins has 4 playoff appearances, 1 AL East title, and an American League pennant.
-
Are you lol because you think he will leave (to be on a commissioner track) or because you think it is a bad decision? Or because it is just kind of crazy that he was probably on track to be out until late June when Jays out of nowhere swept the Yankees and didn't look back.
-
Didn't Ryan Goins also help win the AL East the next year? I think he started the season at second in 2014 then they pivoted eventually to Devon Travis who got injured and back to Goins who played well in the second half of 2015.
-
Just kidding around. No doubt he will be signing with the Mets or Dodgers but Jays will be super-close. Sounds like Vlad just liked his instragram post so it has be really close. As close as it could be like an inch from the World Series close. I am sure Tucker is sitting there with his offer the pen is on the paper... close... so close... Dodgers or Mets call at last minute. But so close!
-
1. Blue Jays interested in Kyle Tucker 2. Blue Jays close on Kyle Tucker 3. Tucker to make a decision in next 24 hours. Wife seen visiting Toronto Real Estate agent. 4. Toronto offers 12 years 430 million. No one else close. 5. Tucker signs short term high AAV with Dodgers. 3 years 145 million, mostly deferred and funded with a 30 year treasury bond set to mature in 2056.
