Olerud363.354

It's pretty simple. 4 teams left within 2 games, So back of napkin is 1/4, 25% chance. Jays are a bit behind those, plus another team could go 20-5, so 20%.. Fangraphs has it at 21. bbref at 25%. Jays have slightly better odds then Orioles on fangraphs for some reason. The games remaining may favor the Jays because it gives they will likely have to do bullpen games and push Cease, Soriano a little.

This thread.. which I have poured my heart into... now may be closed. My work gone. My thoughts ignored. The 'in crowd' laughing in their reopened 'playoff thread' thread.... such is life. In the end. All we do. Is for naught. Unless the Guardians can save me.

Pulling this s*** on Buck Martinez day... god-damnit this team. Destroy all good will. I think the goal is to ruin the franchise for-ever Get back into the wild card race, to get viewership up so they can absolutely crush and destroy the new fans, the young fans, so they never watch again. Teach them that every happy moment turns sad. Every exciting player turns to a pumpkin. Every trade goes as wrong as possible.

This THREAD can be closed under 2 circumstances both of which will never happen. 1. The Jays get back within 2 games of the wild card this year (with the exception of being already eliminated, like if they get within 2 games on the last day thread remains open). 2. Jays get a top 6 pick. If a lottery ball goes the right way the thread can be closed. Otherwise this thread remains upon for all time, and I will track every at bat (or pitch) of whatever god-awful player we choose at 18 (or whatever it is 17-20) next year. Then when that players gets hot in New Hampshire and is traded for an over-rated pitcher like Berrios or Soriano I will track that pitcher in the thread to the end of time.

Whether it was Grant -- or someone else -- God hates us this year. Every dog has it's day, we had ours 83-93, 2016-16, and 2021-2025, not quite the ending we wanted, but this year is cursed and the future is bleak. The Vlad contract, the 18th pick, Soriano pitching like the worst version of Berrios. Mariners - Red Sox ALCS. Book it. Cade Anderson ALCS MVP 3rd overall pick. 135 - 13 k/bb in AA. And Jays fans get excited about these guys like Johny King walking 40 in 60 innings.

Never getting the playoff thread open again. Screw this team. The road to the playoffs was Soriano pitching well and he's been thoroughly unimpressive. Bad outings last 2. Never getting a top 6 pick either. 10 pick penalty and getting a waste of space next year at 18th or whatever. Cade Anderson represents the joy we will never have. The 18th represents the fiasco of a 50th season. Every single piece of goodwill gone. Soriano will be worse than Berrios. NImmala getting hot and running .410 on base percentage with the angels. Scherzer will be destroyed tomorrow as Mariners win series and the fans better not hold back. boo every Vlad ground ball in tomorrow's 10-1 loss as Mariners win series. Ha ha. Putting this nonsense up on Buck Martinez today.

Cal Raleigh up again. C'mon Jose give him another meatball. Then we will get closer to getting a pick who won't be exciting enough to keep forever and we can trade for another 27 year old Jose, who will put up a 3.67 ERA and somewhat disappoint us.

So far a better day. This Mariners rookie is helping us get the pick we need to get the next Chad Jenkins. Now you might think if we tank enough we got lots of lottery balls and might get a player just like this Mariners kid, who they got at 3rd overall when a lottery ball bounced the Mariners way. Now get it out of your mind. We are not getting a lottery ball to bounce our way to get a Kade Anderson. But it we lose today (and it is early but looking OK so far) we might get 8th pick, which is 18th with our penalty. And there maybe a Chad Jenkins, or maybe if we are lucky a kid who will do OK at New Hampshire and we can trade for the next Jose Berrios/Jose Soriano in 2031.

Everything went wrong tonight in the tank thread. If everything goes wrong tomorrow in the tank thread again... do we risk closing it and re-opening the playoff thread, and then see everything go wrong in the playoff thread?

Not a great night in the quest for the 18th draft pick. However do not lose faith. 25 games left where that draft pick can be ours. Toronto 8 Seattle 1 - not great. Seattle now leads us 1.5 games for the pick. Brewers 4 Rangers 1 - wrong way again. Texas now only 1 game ahead of us for more lottery balls Dodgers 2 Tigers 1 - this is bad. Tigers now 3 games ahead of us for the lottery balls Royals 3 Guardians 0 - This is a bit bad. We want Royals and Guardians to win. Guardians gain a game on us for the lottery. It's a bit weird keeping track of this because you have to reverse things in your brain, but as far as I can see on the first night of tanking for the 18th pick (and lottery balls for top 6) everything went wrong so far. Insane! Still some games in progress.

It's the 50th anniversary season. We deserve this. There will be a final kick in the nuts when Baltimore or some s*** team puts us away, but we deserve one more night shooting the s*** with Siranthony in the playoff thread. 6 games, 4 wins, playoff thread re-opened for one last day or two!

My understanding is it is up to chance. I actually did a bit of research here. Happy to be corrected if wrong. The top 6 are chosen by lottery. The worst we finish, the more lottery balls, and if we end up in top 6 after lottery no penalty. There are some nasty scenarios that could happen. The worst being we finish 5th last but don't get a lottery pick, and another team behind us doesn't and we go back to 8th, then the penalty applies and go back to 18th. It's pretty sick actually. A little bit of dark humor about the '18th pick' but that is probably our most 'likely pick'. Our possible picks are 1-6, or 17th to 22nd. We can't pick between 7 and 16th no matter what. That is my understanding at least. The worse we are the better chance we get a lottery pick but it is up to fate.

To keep it all straight here is who we root for tonight in the quest for the 18th overall pick. It's actually a bit confusing because our new rivals have to win, while we have to lose. Some of the same teams we were fighting for the playoff spot are in this too (Seattle, Detroit, Minnesota), but now we root for them to win. 1. Seattle at Toronto - Seattle 2. KC at Cleveland - KC 3. Houston at NY Mets - Mets 4. Pittsburgh at St. Louis - Pittsburgh 5. LAD at Detroit - Detroit 6. CWS at Minnesota - Minnesota

I thought for sure Vlad would get homer 200 last year with a big year. With the strike he might not get it this decade. Finish this year at 190 homers 2027 canceld. 2028 2 homers in 70 games (192) 2029 .205 8 homers in 120 games (200) OK he might get 200 this decade. Will you be cheering in 2029 if he does?

Your son should have had the opportunity to go see another Vlad triple crown chase a time or two this decade. Your son when in jr. high should have had the opportunity to watch Vlad break every Blue Jays record there is. Your son should have had the opportunity to come home from work at his first job, or grad school or whatever he's doing and call his old man when Vlad is up trying to get his 3000th hit. Won't happen now. 14 years of end stage Miguel Cabrera.

I often thought that 2021 wasn't the minor league ballpark. Probably the scouting. I mean the lack of advance scouting during Covid. But then how to explain 2024? Or playoffs 2025 ? The playoffs should have had the most advanced, advanced scouting of all. Not disagreeing with you. Maybe just AI getting better and better, after the 2025 playoffs they fed every Vlad at bat of all time into the machine and it said 'throw him this and he never will be good again'. Someone must have some data on how he is being pitched? Different in 2026?

1 every 3000 years : prospect/young player as good as Vlad at 19 and 22 1 every 30 years: hitting prospect as good as Delgado 1 every 15 years: hitting prospect as good as Wells, Jo Jo Parker, Bichette. 1 every year: hitting prospect as good as Tucker Toman So we'll hopefully someday see another Delgado. Guy who tears up minors at 21, 22, up and down a bit and has a good prime (26-31). Hopefully we see that again someday.

What people don't realize is that a player like Vlad looked at age 19 and age 22 is far rarer then a World Series appearance. On average a World Series appearance should happen every 15 years. We've had one super prospect in 50 years. We've had one early 20s mega-season in 50 years. This type of thing comes around for a team once every 200 years on average (I made that up but prove me wrong). World Series appearance once every 15 years. We will never see this again. Every prospect that as a 19 year old hits .250 with some walks, exit v and pop at 19 in Dunnedin ?? I mean like Jo Jo Parker. Like that's nothing. VLAD HIT .400 in AA as a 19 year old. Every guy that hits .250 with 21 homers at age 23 and we get excited. Vlad almost hit 50 homers and won a triple crown at 22. Set a record for homers as a 22 or under. Like that happens literally 1 in 3000 years for each franchise. It will never happen again. We will never have a prospect or 22 year old this again. And it has been lost.

What about Cito, Edwin and Bautista? Would those three be able to reach him? Would their advice work in 2028 for 29 year old Vlad? After the strike he will be the same age as Edwin and Bautista were when they remade themselves. Advice 1: Swing hard Advice 2: Pull that ball Advice 3: ? Like they fly in Wilton Guerrero and they are surprised that he hits like Wilton. Fly in Bautista. And 83 year old Cito.

IF you do not like this thread and want it closed... fair enough. There is one way to close it. Jays get back within 2 games of playoff spot. Want it closed. Work on that. Call your contacts in the Jays organization with your ideas to get Jays back to within 2 games. Tell them they need to do it to get this horrible thread closed.

Laika closed the playoff thread. It will apparently remain closed unless Jays get 2 games back of playoff spot. This thread replaces it. This is not a joke. This thread should not be closed. It can be locked in the unlikely chance the Jays get 2 games back of a playoff spot and no longer tanking for the 18th pick. I think though if we win between 68 and 72 games we have an excellent chance for the 18th overall pick (8th overall + our 10 pick penalty). If we win more than 72, say 75 we probably get the 12th + 10 penalty picks = 22nd. Yes there is a lottery, but we all know Jays aren't moving up to a top 5 pick or anything in a lottery. So 18th to 22nd it is, and we root to get as low as possible so we have a better chance to get the next Tucker Toman or Chad Jenkins. Tank for the 18th pick. Every loss brings us closer. Not a joke, do not close unless the tanking fails and the Playoff thread is re-opened. All scoreboard watching switches to Angels, As, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Mets, Pirates, Giants and Rockies. By my count we are 11th = 21st pick. Need to drop a few more. We root for the jays to lose, those teams to win. 18th pick. So much better than the 22nd. Start tank standings watch now.

2044 - As I look across Lake America with my Grandson, I say to the boy, there used to be a team, a baseball team, they played there, brought many joy, but the joy ended summer 2026. The boy says 'but gramps, I never knew un-represented territories were allowed baseball teams?'. I laugh. Been listening to President Eric too much. But no reason the territory wouldn't be allowed a team, the economy is decent over there still, and the basketball and hockey teams still runs. I said, nothing to do with those politics grandson, just a man named Vladimir, who was suppose to be great and they gave half a billion to, just wasn't recoverable unfortunately. Now they play in Nashville of all places. Though I don't follow them there, just isn't the same. (not political, just a reflection of what is going to happen).

1995 Jays - John Olerud was the best hitter and really the best player and thought of as the worst and got sat for Jacob Brumfield and traded for Robert Pearson. After Gillick left there were no adults in the room and they thought negative WAR Joe Carter was the best player, and let Hentgen and Guzman throw 140 pitches a start. It was crazy. Absolute nut-case craziness. Vlad has ruined the franchise because of the contract, so the Toronto Blue Jays are over. They won't recover from that, but it was just God. God said lets ruin Vlad and cause them pain. But the 1994-2014 dark spot was caused by man, so recoverable. When God decides to end the only Canadian franchise nothing we can do.

I've no idea how to rebuild a swing but a couple of obvious things are some load management and strike-out more. Strike-out rate is 1/2 of Aaron Judge's and weirdly lowest of Vlad's career in his worst season. Swing less, swing hard, and fix the attack angle whatever that is, but the last one I just know because Laika said it. Needs load management. Play 5 times a week. 5/6 games or 5/7 if no off day. The fact that they haven't load managed him, even with obvious injuries is very weird and maybe fits the narrative no one is man enough to try and fix things.

July 10th 2027, no all star game because of strike but there is a draft. With the 18th pick the 69-93 (2026 record) Blue Jays choose Jay Joe the next Tucker Toman With the 1st overall pick the 78-84 (2026 record) Royals choose the next Ken Griffey Jr.