Olerud363.354

Junior Caminero - average exit velocity 3 games series 112 mph. total distance 2200 feet of homeruns. 22 years old. Unlimited future. Unbelievable hope. Such a joy to have a 22 year old do special things. Gausman - down to 89 mph on fastball continuing trend, lose 11-0 Cease - pitches well but loses 1-0 Okamoto - 3 errors, total distance 500 feet, split between 5 popups. Stangstag proven right about Okamoto. All hope lost. Rays fans cheer.

R.J. Schreck after a slow start has been super hot and is pretty much exactly at his minor league averages 3/5 with 4 rbis today .245 .380 .450 or so on the year. He doesn't K-much for a guy who hits .240 with 100 walks per 150 games. Like an almost 1-1 k/bb career. Numbers very similar to Davis Schneider in the minors, a lefty, slightly better k-rate. I wonder how these numbers will translate. GO/AO is extreme on the low side. Gets in the ball in the air.

How do you explain New Hampshire, 2021 ?, second half 2024. The homerun contests, New Hampshire - John Schneider first plays with sign stealing schemes getting coaches to relay pitches to Vlad. 2019 - Schneider gives Vlad the signs in homerun contest 2021 - Schneider perfecting sign stealing with Vlad 2022/23 - Teams counter more protective of signs 2024 - Second half Schneider comes up with new scheme. 2025 - uses new scheme on and off so other teams won't clue in. Brings it out for playoffs... OK. I'm possibly with you here.

My impression is it's more like the yips that players get when throwing. I am sure it's not work ethic, or mental toughness. Like other have said he did in the playoffs in the most pressure games possible. Like something gets messed up in his swing, very small, hard to detect, hard to fix, just a biomechanical weird glitch. Maybe it can never be fixed. Or maybe the Red Sox can fix it 2026 .260 2 homers 57 rbis 2027 .190 0 homers 38 rbis 67 gidb Commisioner transfers Vlad to Red Sox to see if they can fix him but Blue Jays still have to pay his salary 2028 .388 67 homers 201 rbis

Goal. 1 month at least 40 strikeout, 20 walks. 20 hard swings at pitches down the middle. If he goes .000 with 70 ks in the month so be it.

Junior Caminero 28 degrees 112 mph 450 feet HOMERUN Rays fans cheers Aaron Judge 27 degrees 118 mph 460 feet HOMERUN Yankees fans cheers Junior Caminero 22 degrees 108 mph pulled 390 feet HOMERUN Rays fans cheers Aaron Judge 31 degrees 115 mph 448 feet HOMERUN Yankees fans cheers what a battle, what thrills Yankees/Rays still tied for first. Aaron Judge 25 degrees 105 mph 370 feet into the short portch? Junior Caminero 18 degrees 340 feet right down the line!!!! This is unbelievable show. A pennant race for the ages. A battle between titans. And Vladimir Guerrero JR. 97 mph -1 degree double play to the short stop RAYS WIN! And Vladimir Guerrero JR 102 mph -9 degree to the first basement YANKEES WIN! What a pennant race, what a homerun race.

SOLER - WHY THE f*** CANT VLAD DO THAT OCCASIONALLY. WHAT THE HELL? I guess he doesn't get to hit against Eric Lauer. JEWSIC FUDGING CHRRRIIIST HOW DID THIS HAPPEN? How did Vlad lose his power again 22 years old 48 homers , easy power. Driving them 450 into the night. 420 to the3 opposite 116.5 mph, 27 de3grees 27 years old - 84 mph -6 degrees 500 million 14 years, -10 de3gresss 1 foot ground out, double play

Done this his whole career. Not a complete failure but goes long stretches where he loses it. He's like a combination of Albert Pujols and Billy Butler... closer to Butler. Billy Butler was a guy I never thought of for Vlad comparisons. But - great, great teenage minor league hitter on par with Vlad Then - had moments in his early 20s where he looked like he would be great major league hitter, hitting .310 29 100 or so one year, kind of like 2024 Vlad Finally matured age 27-29 as a .279 hitter with 9 homers. Vlad will be even funnier, great minor hitter, record setting 48 homer homerun title winning season as a 22 year old, demolishes playoff pitching in historic post-season. Matures as a .278 hitter with 7 homeruns.

It will be interesting to see where he ends up at the end of the year. Through 40 games he is a plus defender, not a gold glover or anything. Just trending for maybe half a war positive. Good reflexes, quick release, accurate arm. Does Barger have raw athleticism? 100 mph arm, looks like an athlete but seems his D at third scores about the same as Okamoto. Unreliable eye test but seems Barger wasn't a good at reacting quick, the quick lunges and dives that watching on TV Okamoto seems good at. Maybe I am wrong.

For perspective Vlad has always scored between -10 and -20 defense on fangraphs which dings his WAR. Okamoto is trending for a +5. Vlad is dinged a bit by a positional adjustment, but the adjustment is meant to even things out. When he did play 3rd he was still -10. So not saying Okamoto is a gold glover or anything, just that he is so far trending to be a slight positive, which is great combined with the power he is showing so far.

I've been pleasantly surprised by Okamoto's defense. Things could change but so far it seems he'll be a slightly plus defensive player by both the baseball reference and fangraphs systems. On fangraphs guys can range from around -20 to +20 defense, and Okamoto is at 1 right now. On bbref it tends to be between -2 and +2 WAR and he is at 0.2. He doesn't seem to have great arm strength or speed, or maybe even overall range, but seems to have great reflexes, good at diving and getting back on his feet quickly, accurate arm, and uses the bounce throw well. Ha ha, not that I know s*** about scouting 3rd basemen.

Unless you think Okamoto is a mirage and the exit velocities and defensive metrics say he isn't, then that is not true. Based on data we have so far Okamoto is an upgrade. Exit velocities are great, defense passes the eye test, and the defensive metrics agree. Slightly above average 3b with 90+ percentile exit v related metrics. Do you think he is going to fall apart or something? Bo .290 .330 .450 can't run, can't field too well * Okamota .250 .440 .480 can't run, can field surpisingly well ** * in 2026 one of the worst players in baseball, could be fluke ** very limited data which could change

It's determined by a debate basically. Team and players reps debate the value of the player and who he is comparable to and then the arbiter decides. Like a trial almost. No reason you can't use WAR. No reason you can't bring it up if guy padded his numbers off of position player. Can do anything. Could create your own formula if you want. Not sure if it is still really decided by old school numbers as you would have to think they are using more advanced stuff now. Or whatever side is advantaged by the more advanced stuff is. It's a weird system. Decided by a guy and who knows how much that guy knows. I assume they educate him or get someone with a baseball background and aware of latest trends. I would think number padding wouldn't be a big deal as they can bring it up if significant. Probably everyone gets a chance at that anyway.

Power Tool Scouting Report Jesus Sanchez 60 - good raw power, solid exit velocity, looking for consistent launch angles Brandon Valenzuela 60 - good raw power, solid exit velocity with good launch angles. Ernie Clement 30 - Solid double hitters and can pull 10 homers but lacks raw power. Vladimir "Arraez" Guerrero Jr. 25 - Good bat to ball skills and maintaining .300 average but lacks extra base power.

Agreed with that. Part of my negative outlook is that I'm skeptical Bieber and Yesivage are going to be fully healthy and Corbin can keep itup. If they are, if Corbin can keep it up, if that rotation is healthy for 100 games then I raise the Jays division odds from 1% to 100%. They go 82-18 over last 100 if Kirk back, Barger back healthy, Vlad gets our of Arraez mode, I think that is a great team, just don't know if we see it.

The AL is crazy. Realistically the White Sox probably don't win. But could have the crazy situation where WC1 and WC2 are strong teams, and WC3 and Central winner are awful teams but play each other so one awful team makes the ALDS with the easier path.

They are scared because they see someone post the fangraphs playoff odds? Maybe we should post the Blue Jays Message Board odds beside them. Fangraphs: 1.7 % chance of division, 30% chance of wild card Jays Centre odds: 39 % chance of division, 85% chance of wild card. My advice. Different systems do the odds a bit different, each has their bias so maybe take the average? Again just my suggestion and all our welcome, love to hear all views, Positive Petes you are very welcome here just in case you have been scared a bit by the Negative Nancies.

I am not sure why I am getting a rep as negative. In fact in a recent post I already speculated as to who the White Sox (I think they could be a surprise division winner) will pitch against us as we sneak into the last wild card spot with 79 wins. Jays (79-83) over white sox (80-82) 2-1 ALWC Jays (79-83) over Rays (105-57) 3-1 ALDS Jays (79-83) over Yankees (108-52) 4-1 ALCS Dodgers (114-48) over Jays (79-83) 4-2 in WS Sorry I am not completely positive but that is my prediciton!

There is about a 1 in 3 chance you are correct!

1.7% chance of winning the division. 30% chance of making playoffs. Projected for 79 wins. Yankees projected for 95. I am neither negative nor positive, just reporting the news from fangraphs

Pinto is the opposite of these teenage hotshots guys who show up to the states and go 3 for 35 with 18 ks and a walk.... He'll show up somewhere go 14 for 35 with 10 walks and a couple of homers then injure himself for a year. He has all these little 30-100 at bat seasons, and it adds up to .292 .411 .463 in just over a season's worth of plate appearances spread across 6 seasons and 5 teams.

Seattle was the division winner too Back of Napkin odds of wild card winning world series is 1/20 and division winner 1/6. If all was equal and every round was 50/50 it would be 1/16 and 1/8. But wild cards are lesser teams, and have to go against a Division winner with 5 days rest and pitching set up nicely. That's back of napkin but its something like that.

Its not like because they had a 16-21, the chances of a second 16-21 go down. If fact they go up, because the 16-21 indicates a lesser team then we thought. So like if projected 90 wins we expect 21-16 for the first 37 games. Hard truth is those are 5 games are now gone so now projected 85 wins. Plus injuries and the bad performance get put in the projection system and it's 81. Plus the Yankees overperformed by 5 games. So now they are projected 95 The math is tough. The situation is dire. I appreciate that Blue Jays message board fights in face of math and science. A lot of spirit there.

I read about John Henry in a book called Trend Following I read about 20 years ago.... By all accounts very similar to geniuses on this board who make 7 figures with their trading. You would think they would see a kindred spirit in John Henry??? An accomplished man, a true alpha in the intellectual way. I would speculate that their attacks on Henry and the Red Sox are simply strategical. Men, such as the geniuses on this message board know life is a zero sum game, and you actually have to attack the ones you admire most, as they are rivals for scarce resources, like the latest hot trading strategies and 20 something fertile females.

It just doesn't seem like that effected their performance. You go back real old school Tony Fernandez, George Bell, Vlad Sr. got off the island so to say and hit the s*** out of pitching as teenagers in rural U.S.A. You go back to Vlad Jr. and Kirk same, and now you can argue both of those ate a lot of pizza. All of them put up solid to video game numbers as teenagers. Now they live in these Florida Complexes with perfect conditions and perfect nutrition and hit .180 with 30ks and 3 walks. Two things probably 1. These high performances complex are maybe helping the pitchers more than the hitters. I hear the Jays have like the greatest collection of young pitchers in generations... maybe just an illusion because pitching at all levels, but even more at the low levels is way ahead? Be interesting to dive into the average slash line in the old Appy and Midwest league vs the Florida Complex League and low A Florida State League. 2. Harsh reality is out of 10 of these international prospects or high school draftees 9 will fail when they first see good secondary pitches and you see it 2 months into A ball. No one can tell which ones so every year we get excited about 1teenagers and by June their done. Kevin Ahrens, Manuel Beltre were high profile ones, who never made it anywhere, hit .230 at every level. And .230 isn't bad compared to some of these guys who can't break .200. I am sure it is awful for them too. It's not the pizza. Just can't hit better pitching and for some reason College or Dominican ball won't tell you that.