Olerud363.354

What to do.... I think it depends on today If they are 4.5 games back 5:00 pm today - trade everyone and aim for 2029 If they are 3.5 games back 5:00 pm today - hold steady. Springer, Gaussman goodbye tour, end of era tour. If they are 2.5 games back 5:00 pm today - become buyers. -

I think the compromise there is just to demand players that could help win in the next three years, and if the other team says no, so be it. Just establish that your selling them a playoff run this year for a playoff run in a future year, otherwise no deal. f*** this trading for a teams #14 prospect. No. You can take your top prospect off the table, everyone else is on the table, or else we just ride. The complication I suppose if the Jays want to get below a competitive tax threshold. I heard they could lose 10 spots in the draft or something? Unless top 6? Is that true. We all know the Jays are destined to finish 3rd last, but lose the lottery so pick 7th, then get dropped 10 spots to 17. ... sigh...

Playoff odds go from 56% to 7.5% in 3 weeks negative nancies have mental break down and punch window out, some stitches needed, positive pete's grudgingly admit playoff odds below 10 is a tough one. Playoff odds go from 7.5% to 7.8% in 3 days, negative nancies and positive petes all back on the bandwagon and feeling good. 7.8% is halfway to 15.6% is haflway to 31.2% is halfway to 62.4 % which is better then even odds.

When the 2023 Angels were in this situation did they give up? Hell no. When Donald J. Trump was impeached twice and convicted of felonies like 100 times did he give up? Hell no When Vlad started hitting like Josh Kasevitch's 30th percentile projection, when Bieber and Yesavage started walking 5 or so an inning some starts, when Ernie Clement lost his defense, when Barger lost his elbow, and when Gausman and Springer sold their houses and packed their luggage did Ross Atkins give up? I'd like to say hell no. Tell Gausman and Springer too bad you sold your house losers, but the Toronto Blue Jays do not give up. * DJT example not political just an example of not giving up and how sometimes it works out., though the 2023 Angles are a counter-example as to how sometimes not giving up doesn't work out.

that simply requires a few guys to return to career norms... Vlad obviously and you have a hall of fame bat right there. Springer/Kirk not hall of fame level but good enough if at career norms.... We have like 3 number 2 starters if they play at their talent level....

My Pet Peeve on the board though, is that most of the doom and gloom, including my own coincides with large sudden drops in the playoff odds. A bad stretch mid-season, like we saw late June, early July, can drop the playoff odds from 50% to 15% in a couple of weeks and the unhinged fans go nuts and they are right. Then you have people saying, teams get in this situation all the time, we did it in 1989, 2015, and 2025... and I'm like dude, that's 3 in the 20 times we've been here, 15%, not all the time.

That would change things a lot. So his pop-up rate is actually quite low. 20% of 23%. As opposed to Varsho or someone who has gotten close to 20% of 50%. So now we're looking at Kasevich at 27 basically being Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 27, hitting some hard ground balls, and beats out a few more choppers (better speed?). Let's put him at .265 .340 .360 just like Vlad, and with good defense that could play.

That combination is weird. Why he is he hitting grounders and pop-ups? There are guys who are extreme to one or the other, but extreme to both with less than expected optimal launch angles.... That part seems random and I doubt will continue., That being said just take his career minor league numbers and knock a bit off, I think .290 .350 .360 in the minors so .260 .320 .350 or so in the majors. Laika is still right because that line needs really good defense to be worth it.

Sorry they deleted your thread. Crazy that 34 years old Wilson Contreras can hit fine and Guerrero can't. How? How is that even possible.

Not sure why that thread got deleted. I totally get if he was starting a new Red Sox thread everyday. What is wrong with a thread about another teams success? Yeah I know there are Red Sox boards. but sometimes you just want to chat about stuff with the board you know. Given expectations this has to be the worst season in Blue Jays history. Have some leeway I think to muse about why the other teams are successful.

Things not allowed. 1. Lenyn Sosa 2. Is this just another AAAA player (until 150 games of solid playing time). ? ** Things that must happen 1. Davis Schneider traded to red sox or given 160 games in lead off spot as show of apprecitation for on base percentage. (Some good posters recently asked that about Keys, "Is he just a AAAA player?" Need to wipe this thought out about player who walks and has power. On base percentage must return and there could be some failure along the way, but the alternative is worse.

Career he has played 162 games and walked 123 times but only hit .235 or so. The Jays have a tonne of guys who have low career averages in the minors but great secondary skills. For an organization last in on base percentage, last in walks, last in runs, and hopeless at the major league level this would be a welcome change if that philosophy arrives in Toronto after the strike. These types of players frustrate. Organization needs to committ to allowing players to hit .140 with a .300 on base and look bad for a month and stick with them even when it appears not to be working. Feel like just needs to be a rule, when we start bringing more of these up, they get a lot of playing time. You don't EVER sit these guys for the Lenyn Sosas of the earth.

No need for any of this s*** anymore. It needs to stop and they need to change direction. A change of direction may result in more wins compared to what they are doing. 1. Relievers used conservatively and the right amount. If too many close games in a row they use Brendan little if it comes to that. No one allowed to go over 2 outings and/or 30 pitches for 3 days. 2. If too many blow out losses in a row and Varland/Hoffman/Rogers underworked one of them opens. 3. Davis Schneider traded and team officially announces they no longer believe in on base percentage. Or if they believe in on base percentage he plays in MLB 90% of the time for rest of season. 4. Vlad given swing reconstruction and load management. Plays 9 of 10 days. Rests 3 days. Swing reconstruction 2 days. Vlad plays only 60% of the time until fixed. 5. Springer traded or plays 50% of time. And in LF when he plays so young ones can DH. 6. Keys either sent to Buffalo of plays 100% of the time. 7. All starters get openers except Cease. Even Yesavage. Openers become the Blue Jays way and players respect it. They have a big cheer for when the follower vultures a win. These are rules. Managers that don't obey them get fired.

I have no idea. You have to first identify how what the problem is with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If it is a chronic injury that can't be fixed ever... then firing people will not do much good. Release him I guess and eat the 500 million. If it is fixable then you start thinking who, on this planet of 7 billion people can help Vlad ? And the same skills that will help Vlad will help other players get to their potential. Why is this team dead last in offense? Is it mechanics? Mental? Injuries? Random? If the first 3 identify who is good at helping players with mechanics, mental stuff and handling injuries and get people like that. So perhaps instead of thinking who should be fired, identify what the problem are, and identify what coaching, management, and health and fitness and skills you need in the organization to fix it. Then get those skills, and if needs to come at the expense of firing some people, do that then.

Fire sale? Everyone's value is down to zero. How can you even sell things that have no value.

Selling is not entirely giving up either. 98 Jays. 2025 Guardians. And I am sure many other stories. It ain't working, reconfigure to a younger players. Sometimes they go on a run. line-up post firesale. Of course this could be a disaster. Or it could be a normal team that takes walks, and hits homers, and has young bat speed and just acts normal for a 2020s offense, instead of the .245 .300 .360 s*** we see. And maybe some of the things we get in there too. (this assume Lukes, Springer, Varsho sold). 1. Davis Schneider (if not sold needs to play 50 games straight) 2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3. Ernie Clement (if not sold) 4. Okamota 5. Keys (50 games straight to see what we have) 6. Kirk/Valenzuala 7. Pinago 8. Clase 9. Giminez

I don't believe this mandate would come from Rogers for profit reasons. It would come from themselves as getting under I think is worth a prospect or two. The penalties make you lose a pick and international signing money right? So if they get just under one of the threshold that is like getting a prospect.

I wonder what Gausman's value is compared to Kikuchi's 2 years ago? Both will be entering the trade deadline with similar numbers. Both had their ERAs inflated by a couple of bad outings leading up to trade deadline. Kikuchi better raw stuff, younger but was very inconsistent. Gausman longer track record and recent post season success. Would Dodgers want Gausman (given injuries and Ohtani status) and give one of their outfield prospects? My understanding is that Dodgers have several good outfield prospects, with the best one untouchable but then the second or third best is still good. Who wants Springer? Who needs right handed hitting outfield/DH with greatest playoff WPA (I believe ever). When you trade for Springer you are trading for a series winning homerun. That's gotta be worth something even given his current state.

Blue Jays need to pay to send him to Fenway as a Blue Jays ambassador for consecutive win 19. He can hand them a token of appreciation for that historic moment. Like a quilt with 19 on it and some great moments from the win streak embroidered. Also, I mentioned on the Sell thread, but in the case of Blue Jays selling anyone to the Red Sox, Grant can escort them across the field to the other dug-out and wish them the best on a quest for the World Series.

Totally true - if we told you 1. Vlad .350 slugging and loses all power 2. Varsho also loses all power 3. Springer back to 2024 Springer 4. Barger, Ponce, Berrios, Satander out for season 5. Heineman goes back to .200 .250 .300 hitter, and so does Kirk. 6. Schneider has to spend most of the year in the minors where he is holding a .500 on base but they still don't call him back up. 7. Hoffman brutal for first third of season and needs to be removed from closer roll 8. Brandon Little has lost it so much he can't even stay around for 10 innings. -- all that you'd think they'd win 50 games -- put them together and it's a 70 win team.

4 teams from the East make the playoffs? This requires our poor Blue Jays to lose a lot of games against them. In the old system that would be OK to get a top 3 pick. It's a lottery though and we all know a 65 win Blue Jays team would end up picking 11th or something with the 82 win Mariners or someone getting 1st overall.

Feel good story of the year. They probably win the division. Gives us faith again that there is kindness in the world and good things happen to good people. I'm always a blue jays fan first but appreciate baseball history. Looks Jays are in line to be part of win 17 to 19, but will miss 20-24. I predict this streak is only halfway there.

You may think I am going overboard on Boston to troll the board and Grant if he still lurks. I'll admit I'm laying it on a bit thick, and there are of course bad parts of Boston, like anywhere. Most of it is factually true though. Been to Boston more than any American city. 50 times at least. For business and for the Boston Marathon. Know so many Boston fans. No one was kinder and more excited for me during last year playoffs. I have Boston fans who make me Blue Jays quilt like wall hanger decorations. I have a Boston fan who gave me a 1970s Blue Jays warm up Jacket. All the Boston fans I know gave me condolences last year. Sort of live in an New England area close enough to NY City that it is 1/3 Boston fans, 1/3 Yankees and 1/3 Mets so they learn to be not dickish to each other, since they are all mixed in.

World Series AL East this century - Boston 4, NY 2, Tampa Bay 0, Baltimore 0, Toronto 0 Playoff wins AL East this decode - NY 15, Tampa Bay 12, Toronto 10, Boston 6, Baltimore 0 How is Baltimore less deserving? They have very little. I do like Boston. Integrity, intelligence, classy fans, a left wing liberal city, smartest place in North America, home of Havard and MIT, the Boston Marathon, the start of freedom for the west at the Boston Tea Party. Sam Adams beer. Patriots. Warriors. The kindest people on the planet. Some disagree, they have not been there and are making stuff up. ALL four teams have Championships in the last 10 years I believe. They do deserve this as a people, and because of their kindness you could argue they deserve another from the Red Sox this year. I don't know as much about Baltimore as a city and their people. How classy are they? Baltimore deserves some success because they've had little lately, but they deserve it based on their integrity?

It's like Cito's 94-97 Jays without 2 World Series wins to give him rope... Last in walks, last in on base percentage, only an injury could stop Lenyn Sosa,