Olerud363.354

Can't remember who hit homers off him in the regular season, but Varland had a 4.94 ERA for Jays in regular season. Around 4.00 in the playoffs, but in the playoffs he faced middle of the order a lot. Judge, Jazz, Polanco and Cal Raleigh all hit big homers off him to win or potentially win games.. The Jays 2025 season just so improbable. Varland had a tough job. Opposition best hitters every night, inevitably Judge/Raleigh will get you if facing them every night. At the same time, he gave some big homers that could have been classics had the other team won... but Jays came through in ALDS and ALCS.

I think the issue is that collectively the backups have something a 50 OPS+ and are running .220 on base percentages... part of the road to a good season is the guys that suck just sort of suck, and put 80 OPS+ .280 on base not 10 OPS+. Not saying it's Popkin's fault, just that the hope is a good hitting coach gets everyone to their so called true talent level. Get the back up catchers up to .220 .280 .350 or something. Could all be just random of course.

Something changed. Springer changed himself? Springer randomly found a new batting stance? Springer found a better amphetamine ?? (not implying illegal, some legal red bull like thing, taken at the right time, right amount of sleep, could help). Springer was injured in 2023 and 2024 and still injured in 2025 but not as much? It's all just random? I mention this a couple of times a year, but my all time favorite baseball article was a Bill James article where he simulated thousands of seasons from players just to see what the best and worst they would do was. For Wade Boggs it was any where from .250 to .400. He actually somehow had a .250 season in his mid 30s but rebounded to .340. Anyway either it is random, or there is a reason.

Cynic in me thinks he's injured still and won't pitch well or last long in the Majors. Schneider was kind of luke warm on a couple of comments to the media "we want to make sure he's OK", "He assures me he's feeling fine", "Want to make sure when he's up, he's up to stay". Kind of reading between the lines they are not convinced he is healthy. Dominates Yankees and Dodgers in the most pressure packed games possible against elite lineups... but gets hammered in St. Lucy and Scranton (or wherever it was). Yeah I know rehap assignment, but if a guy is healthy these are usually a breeze... 6 innings, 2 hits, maybe a homer, 2 walks 7 ks... struggles going 3 innings against minor hitters do not predict good things tonight... Hopefully I am full of s***.

League adjusting to their approach? I always joked about Mattingly's approach not really working for most, except maybe Bo. Hey you just need Mattingly's hitting tips and 99.99999th percentile hand eye coordination. Popkins was a minor league journeyman so one could guess might relate a bit more to the Davis Schneiders, Nathan Lukes and Brandon Venezuala's of the world and the struggles they could face.. Sadly this year getting nothing extra (or really nothing at all so far) out of those guys.

The logic is wrong though because just because an 8-12 already happened doesn't decrease the chance of another one happening. And an 8-12 while the division leader goes 13-7 puts you 5 games back and very difficult to overcome when at best team was projected to be about even with the other teams. And yes, Jays came back from a big hole last year, but that's just happens to be the 1 of 10 which it happens. Jays had a good team on paper but slow starts in 86, 88, 89, 95, 97, 98, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2024, 2025. I count 14 years this has happened, and came back all the way to win a division 3 times. Which might even be more than you'd expect. Fangraphs has it as 1/20 to win the division. Playoffs chances with the extra wild card are higher.. 25 to 30 percent I guess. Jays playoff, division and world series chances last in AL East now. Fangraphs likes even the Red Sox better. Actually seems historically Jays have done this more than you'd expect. Good on team on paper, excited for the season, playoff odds destroyed 4 weeks in.

So much data these days that whatever worked won't work for long as the other team will counter with their game planning. Obviously lots of injuries too. I guess probably more the latter, see what happens if they get a healthy team.

Schneider - Hoffman, you will be pitching only if it is 10-1 or 1-10. Hoffman - "Sounds good. I am not the best closer right now, but if I pitch good in the 10-1 games maybe you will reconsider me." Schneider - LIttle and Rodiriquez. You are going to Buffalo. Little and Rodriquez - "OK skip, there are worse places, we will try to learn better control in a stress free environment and hopefully see you all soon." Schneider - Lauer, you will have an opener but a great opportunity to pad your ERA and vulture a win. Lauer "You die *******. I will not suffer such an indignity. Go to hell. Straight to hell. I kick your fat ass and stat-boys Shitkins soft ass too"

I like to keep an eye on career minor league stats. He's .242 .376 .456. That will slowly go up if he keeps on demolishing the upper minors. People have good things to say about him I think. Like he hit the ball hard last year.

A lot of players that are everyday players in some form, and didn't go to College are 20 year olds in high A. Randal Grichuk was 20 in high A and hit .298. Trent Grisham was 20 in high A and hit .220. He hits .215 in the majors. Which could work for Nimmala if he has defense and base running. Trent has 14 WAR. Everyone if they didn't go to College and are destined to make the majors are 20 in high A... OK maybe not everyone. Anyway send Nimmala to that band-box in New Hampshire so we can find out if he is capable of padding stats in a hitters environment.

Same concern with Brandon Valenzuela... who is not a 20 year old, and it seems hit .299 as a 20 year old but his average fell apart in the upper minors and at 25 through almost 600 minor league games stands at .240 Kirk is .320 minors .267 majors, Heineman .278 minors, .238 majors... if I trained an AI off just those two it would predict Valenzuela would hit .200. Steamer is an AI trained off of all... it predicts Valenzuela will hit .203

Guys tend to lose some off their minor league batting average but gain power in the majors. Wiley Adames hit .270 .365 .414 in the minors, and .244 .320 .440 in the majors. Paul DeJong hit .270 in the minors. Randal Grichuk hit .270 in the minors. Bradley Zimmer .260 in the minors. Miles Straw hit .290 in the minors. Steamer has Nimala hitting .188 right now. Sounds about right given minor league numbers. Very hard to believe someone with a .228 minor league average can succeed. Argument for success 1. Very young. Will improve to a better average in his later minor league years. 2. Only 200 games the .228 average is random. 3. Injured last year. 4. Dunedin and Vancouver bad hitter parks. 5. Will hit .350 .450 .700 in New Hampshire hitting 2nd in front of Keys (.350 .450 .700 too). OK. Might as well send him to New Hampshire tomorrow to get his confidence up.

Got to give more prestige to the vulture role. Full time opener would go 0-3 2.44. If hypothetically full time opener 0 wins because would never go 5 innings. Full time starter (mediocre stuff) would go 4-11 5.44 because they would get crushed by top of the order 3rd time through. but... vulture (mediocre stuff) might go 11-4 3.55, because they'd be used more strategically. Miss the middle of the order first and 3rd time, but get 15 batters (middle of the order once), and no worries about 5 innings for win, because they come in second inning.

I seriously don't get it. There used to be like 140 inning long man occasional starter relieve role where guys could go 12-3 easy vulturing wins. Is like Arb against this kind of thing? Or is it just misplaced confidence? Like Lauer knows it is better to be 12-3, 3.55 as long man that faces middle of order only once, he know this is better then 4-11 5.44 with 32 starts... however he THINKS he'll go 15-5 in 32 starts.

Blue Jays built a commanding AL East lead with rotation of Gausman, Berrios, Bassit, Scherzer and Lauer.

He loses something when he gets out at second admiring a ball off the right field wall. He loses something when he gets out at second when he hits it 115 mph, 14 launch angle off left field wall. Does he lose anything when he stays at first admiring a ball off the right field wall? Justifiable if so. Does he lose anything if he stays at first with 115 mph, 14 launch angle off left field wall? Like he made the right decision but system pings him a bit. Is there even anything fancy here, or could you just list baserunning outs and Vlad would have 10 a year or something and it's just based on that, not on any fancy 'should have got to second on that ball' adjustments.

A bit of a tangent but do the Mets save 45 million on Bo Bichette if a strike? I know some players got big bonuses and stuff to bypass strike things (like Vlad might have 400 million bonus or something)... but is Bo protected from strike? Not good news for 2027 if Mets have multiple reasons to vote for the strike (bitterness, bad attitude, plus need to get out of Bo Bichette payments).

2027 homerun leaders (predicted) NA (non applicable season canceled because of Strike) 2026 Dodgers 112-50 3rd World Series victory in a row 2026 Mets 70-92 sadness - Mets ownership grumpy and bitter, cast tie breaking strike vote.

That would make him Vladdy Jackson, with lower k-rate and lower walk rate, Reggie did not win a homerun title young, but won a few after with 41, 39, 36 and 33. Those totals probably won't win homerun titles in the strange land of 2020s baseball. 2028 homerun leaders (predicted) 1. Murakami - White Sox 58 (221 ks) 2. Nick Kurtz - Las Vegas Athletics 56 (229 ks) 3. Aaaron (old) Judge - New York Yankees 49 (198 ks) .... 8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Toronto Blue Jays 38 (83 ks)

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 147, 146, 146, 144. 125 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. top RBAT+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 168, 163, 133, 133, 120 When you order it like that you can see they are comparable through age 26. Vlad has more variation. Manny raw numbers seems better because average team hit .260 .340 .450 or something back then. Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 27-31 - 186, 184, 174, 161, 158 Manny took it to the next level age 27-31

I posted this on the game thread but it's kind of cool so I'll post it here again. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Reggie Jackson have almost the same home run totals and same season to season variation between age 22 and 26 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml Both had a high 40s (Vlad 48 Reggie 47), both had a low 20s (both 23). Both had a 25 (well Vlad 26). Both had a 30 (well Reggie 29), both had exactly 32. Despite this Reggie isn't on Vlad's comparable list through age 26. Justin Upton who seems less comparable to me is. I guess they weight batting average, k-rate and other things just as much as homers. Most comparable are Eddie Murray and Freddie Freeman. Still on track with Ramirez and Cabrera through age 26. Their numbers looked bigger because of very different environment but normalized to environment still with them. HOWEVER. Cabrera and Ramirez dominated age 27-32. Triple crowns. Near triple crowns. Batting titles. .350 with great power and a great eye. Vlad has to take it to the next level to keep up now.

Player 1 and Player 2. Player 1 is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who his his brother from a different mother? Hr Age 22-26 Vladimir: 48, 32, 26, 30, 23 Hr Age 22-26 Player X: 29, 47, 23, 32, 25 They are within 1 for every number. Like Vlad had a 48, X had a 47. Both had a 32. Vlad had a 30, X had a 29. Vlad had a 26, X had a 25. They both had a 23. They hit virtually the same number of homers with the same season totals (mixed up a bit) between age 22 and 26. Who is player X and what was his final total?

Dumb stat but it is the second I have invented after 'bases clogged' (walks + double - stolen bases - triples), lower is better. For example John Olerud has a lot of clogged bases (100 walks 40 doubles 0 steals 0 triples in a year would give you 140 clogged bases). Vince Colemen in his prime might have 50 walks 15 doubles 110 steals and 10 triples. That's like -55 clogged bases (negative is good, not clogging bases). Second stat I am inventing is called LOD. LOD stands for Leverage OPS dif. a) Take worst of your lead-off or second hitter and subtract the OPS against of your closer from it. Jeff Hoffman last year was like .750 or something, Nathan Lukes, who hit second game 7 of World Series was .730 or so LOD is -20 or so. That is bad. You'd like the LOD to be 200-300 (.800 OPS for worst of first or second hitter, .500 to .600 OPS against for closer. Kind of being stupid here, but the point is that for a World Series contender the closer should have a good OPS against (.500 or .600), and 1st and 2nd good OPS for (around .800 at least). They are the ones pitching the critical inning and getting the most at bats. Now of course not every team is perfect, but I bet almost every team with a bad LOD can fix this stat very easily. Hit Vlad second, Varland closes and LOD is like 400 or something. So teams could have both actual LOD (decision by management) and optimum LOD (what it could be if players used in best way.

ETA could realistically be any where between late next year or sometime 2028 IF he has as good as we hope. Like 2030 would mean a full year at each level, and that doesn't happen unless there is a bump in the road. If things are going good he'll do two levels a year.

Yeah... not saying it isn't out reason. Season is f***d all the same. Injuries are always the worse then expected. Like Barger and Springer aren't even running yet, so probably 2 weeks away. Varsho now. I also am pretty sure Yesivage isn't healthy. Getting beat up a bit in the minors and they will pitch Lauer again instead of giving him a start next week. Yeah I know. His "command" isn't quite there. I don't know. Seems to me if they were confident he was healthy he'd be up next week. A healthy Yesivage is a better bet then Lauer... we will see I guess. Happy to be wrong.