Olerud363.354

Interesting what Vlad would get in this environment as he and Tucker are comparable in WAR. Tucker I guess a bit better per 162, However Vlad two years younger and his post-season adds to the marketing package that would have been put together. 1. Greatest minor league hitter ever 2. Best exit velocities in the game. 3. Most hard hit balls this decade. 4. Gold glove defense at first, and could play third with generational arm. 5. Greatest post-season ever all against elite pitching (show that shot of him homering against Ohtani, and Snell too). 6. LIfe time .280 30 homers 100 rbis per 162, same as Sota. 7. Already perennial all star and most un-tapped potential in the game. Could easily win multiple triple crowns. Asking price 14 years $625 million. The Kawai Leonard type playoff hero your team needs and could very well give your fans the thrill of a triple crown. Not saying all that is true but that is the package an agent would put together and try to get 600 million.

I assume someone has proper translations and projections, but roughly speaking I assume it is at least a 100 point hit off of career OPS. Murakami's career Japanese OPS is is .950 and Kazuma Okamoto's .850. Seiya Suzuki was basically .950 Japan .850 U.S. Ohtani was the opposite. .850 Japan, .950 U.S. But that is an unique situation (came over at 23 and was pitching part time). So bullshitting it Okamoto would be a .250 .325 .425 hitter and Murakami .260 .350 .500.

With the exception of Ohtani and related Japanese add revenue I don't think 'star power' helps at all. Just winning. I think there is some evidence that a strong off-season leads to an attendance spike, but not sustainable without winning. You can glance at Jays all time attendance here https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/ Making playoffs instantly led to the return of 3 million attendance in both 2016, and 2023. Otherwise not a lot makes a difference. Attendance wasn't great with Delgado at near triple crown level (2000, 2003). Attendance wasn't spectacular with Clemens. Attendance isn't too great historically with these 87 win teams that aren't really in it. Jays historical pattern since 1994 Playoff contention 3 million no playoff contention 1.5 million - 2.5 million (depending how far away from last playoff contention)

? Both of us said "if true" Maybe you were directing your comment at "PunchoutPitch" who-ever that is... I am not fully convinced what "PunchoutPitch" has to say is true either, I didn't bother to check secondary sources but did qualify it with an if statement.

Sounds like it is more like 12 years (if the 400 is true).

I see it is a reference to the other thread. Still curious if he likes Shaprio or not. He's indicated in other threads that Jays are behind in some pitching development areas, which is interesting. If people on a public forum are expressing that the Jays are "behind" then the Jays should know that people "think" they are behind and just disagree. As an outsider it's still hard to know what to make of this management team. Last few years it's an 88 win a year team in the same group with maybe Baltimore and Seattle. Just with very recent and dramatic playoff success. Which is great and tends to make us think they are all geniuses, but this time last year we thought they were all morons.

If he keeps the team competitive for the next 5 years and wins a World Series he will be at Gillick's level. Hard to compare eras because jobs have changed. Would people compare Atkins to Gillick? It seems like Shapiro is more the guy in charge of baseball ops, even if he doesn't do day to day details. At about the same point GIllick had two AL Easts, no playoff series wins. Shatkins has 4 playoff appearances, 1 AL East title, and an American League pennant.

Are you lol because you think he will leave (to be on a commissioner track) or because you think it is a bad decision? Or because it is just kind of crazy that he was probably on track to be out until late June when Jays out of nowhere swept the Yankees and didn't look back.

Didn't Ryan Goins also help win the AL East the next year? I think he started the season at second in 2014 then they pivoted eventually to Devon Travis who got injured and back to Goins who played well in the second half of 2015.

Just kidding around. No doubt he will be signing with the Mets or Dodgers but Jays will be super-close. Sounds like Vlad just liked his instragram post so it has be really close. As close as it could be like an inch from the World Series close. I am sure Tucker is sitting there with his offer the pen is on the paper... close... so close... Dodgers or Mets call at last minute. But so close!

1. Blue Jays interested in Kyle Tucker 2. Blue Jays close on Kyle Tucker 3. Tucker to make a decision in next 24 hours. Wife seen visiting Toronto Real Estate agent. 4. Toronto offers 12 years 430 million. No one else close. 5. Tucker signs short term high AAV with Dodgers. 3 years 145 million, mostly deferred and funded with a 30 year treasury bond set to mature in 2056.

How good is this park for a right handed hitter now? I think the dimensions are somewhere between the original and the freak show dimensions https://www.mlb.com/news/effect-of-camden-yards-new-dimensions-for-2025. If Mike Elias is a moron I guess the freak show camden thing might be evidence (for the record I thought he was the greatest GM of all time and about to launch the greatest franchise of the 21st century, 2025 wasn't great evidence for that theory but who knows what the future years will bring). Anyway freak show Camden. Seemed like it was designed to stop Vlad and Judge and Bo and Stanton. I always thought there would have to be a 5-3 game where Vlad (or Bo or Judge) hit a 415 foot, 115 mph missile to left centre that was caught and the Orioles celebrate, don't remember that game happening to the Jays but maybe it did happen to the Yankees once, I recall watching the now defunct Michael Kay show, and Kay complaining about something that happened to a Judge 117 mph 420 foot flyball in Camden. So anyway obviously the Orioles couldn't quite make an all left handed line up (Jackson Holiday, greatest prospect ever, so far is questionable as to that status, just like his GM is to his 'greatest' status, Cedric Mullins, all star center fielder now journey man, some of their other left handed hitters not panning out, so had to bring in the wall and sign big old slugging first basemen for 150 million.

Funny how Kirk and Moreno are same guy, except Kirk more durable and as of now has better post season numbers. Atkins did a great job realizing the one with the "better" body artificially had more trade value but Kirk so far has been more durable.

If they lose out on Tucker go for Imai and one of the position players. I guess they would have to get rid of Berrios in that situation.

Rumor is now Dodgers are looking to trade for Skubal and offer Tucker a 3-4 year deal with big AAV. If Jays lose out on Tucker I wouldn't mind seeing them still in on Imia. Make a super-redundant 6 man starting staff to battle the Dodgers super-team, then can move some guys to the bullpen if all healthy in October.

Crazy how far the Jays got given... 1. Bieber was dealing with forearm tightness and unable to handle a full playoff workload 2. Scherzer looked done at the end of September and they went 1-2 in his starts. 3. They lost all 4 of Gausman's ALCS and World Series starts. 4. Bichette was injured all of October 5. Springer was beat up and injured some of October. Despite the fore-arm thing they went 3-0 in Bieber's ALCS and World Series starts, 3-1 in Yesevage's. Almost no question the Jays could have a healthier and better playoff team next October. Also sadly since so much luck is involved in this, this better team may not get as far.

Not qualified to comment on your other stuff, but Jays should go LA lite. 140 innings for starters. Lots of labwork and rest. Figure out what ails them all and fix. They all get to be a setup man once and a while so don't do that for first time in playoffs. Like - next weeks you are setup man 3 times. Chill. Rest. Get strong and learn to be setup man just in case we need you in the most critical inning of last 30 years.

They should resign Bassitt and Tatsui Imai Then just have guys on stand by half the time, experiment with 4 inning outings, starters being the setup man sometimes. piggy backing, 6 man rotation sometimes... everybody end up with 140 innings, maybe Bieber less. Option Yesivage for a couple weeks for a rest. Put Bieber on the dl a few times. All kinds of crazy stuff then just aim to be fresh for the playoffs. And as a second purpose to this make sure different types of relief work aren't new to these guys. Like your first opportunity as a set up man is ideally not game 7s. Gotta still make the playoffs so that is why they need Tatsui Imai to do this. Realistically probably never work... because guys have their routines... or maybe it would.

Seems like in the Atkins press conference he said something like 'Bieber is probably going to be ready for Spring Training, taking it week by week. The whole thing is weird between making him the 3rd then 4th SP in playoff rotation, to him taking the qualifying offer. Wonder what is going on. Hopefully just a slow TJ recovery and nothing else. Also sounds like Berrios wasn't too happy watching playoff baseball.

Jim said that even after regression their splits were something like wRC+ was like 90/110 in favor of Scheider. It is probably more like 85/105 but same trend. That mostly reflects the difference in total wRC+ rather than platoon skill. Jim has 40 years experience being the most highly paid engineer in a firm of 2000 and more statistical analysis experience then the rest of you combined. I still will say that he intuitively understood that the platoon trends of Clement and Schneider were real (albeit small) and he did correctly deduce the net wRC+ difference of 20 (vs righties) between the two. Personally I have 22 years experience going from job to job, getting canned fairly quickly, though have not been canned in many years, I guess because my linkedin has had that green 'open for work' thingy since before Covid. That being said I've been canned by many Jim-types, and many phony-types just trying to eliminate me before I took their job, so I know the difference between the real-deal and the make-believes.

Enough about Olerud already Olerud. One more thing. He also had potential as a pitcher. I don't think it was Ohtani like potential but crafty lefty type potential. Given his elite hand eye coordination (which shows up on offense and defense) got to think he'd he'd have had more control than Brandon Little. Probably could have pitched 50 innings a year, at the very least been a position player mop up guy with some actual pitching game. Love to see another player like him come up in my life time.

John Olerud had an 8 fWAR MVP type season at 24 to start his prime years hitting .363 and setting the Blue Jays batting average record. John Olerud had an 8 fWAR MVP type season at 29 to end his prime years hitting .354 and setting the Mets batting average record. Have to think if he had a manager and organization that believed in his style his age 25-28 seasons would have been better. Even with that way more fWAR than Delgado and Mattingly... should have been a hall of famer. Should have been a life long Blue Jay.

Olerud has 57 fWAR compared to Delgado 44 and Mattingly 40. Delgado has a 135 wRC+, Olerud 130 wRC+, and Mattingly a 124 wRC+. The only reason Olerud isn't being considered with Delgado is I guess is that people don't think the 1b defense metrics are real. What is the reason that he isn't being considered along side Mattingly? Olerud is better on offense and defense. Olerud's best two seasons are both better than Mattingly's two best. His best 5 combined are better. If Olerud wasn't platooned by CIto his career would look completely different. 20 homers and 80 rbis on back of the baseball card looks so much better than 15 and 60. Then there is the second order effect that platooning probably had on a young player. Not seeing lefties much for so many years probably hurt his development.

Is it though? Clements career wRC+ against righties - 82 Schneiders career wRC+ against righties - 112 Jim regresses it (I presume) without math, just uses his intuition from a life of stats, logic and decades of experiences both intellectual and visceral and and comes up with 90/110. What are the actual numbers if you regress? Formula on fangraphs looks simple enough, but like Jim I am a very experienced man of statistics so know the answer but would like to see the peanut gallery do the math. (fyi I do agree about Terminators point that since Schneider only plays against Josh Towers level righties we can't totally trust his splits).