Blue Jays Minor League Highlights Thread

[Laika]

Tommy Pham hit .232 or worse at every level between rookie ball and A+ for his first FOUR minor league seasons, then finally figured something out at the upper levels. 

Was he a star? No. But he has a 111 career wRC+ and got MVP votes once. If you hit like that as a good shortstop, you are Willy Adames. Miguel Tejada. Jeremy Pena. Something in that bucket. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Tommy Pham hit .232 or worse at every level between rookie ball and A+ for his first FOUR minor league seasons, then finally figured something out at the upper levels. 

Was he a star? No. But he has a 111 career wRC+ and got MVP votes once. If you hit like that as a good shortstop, you are Willy Adames. Miguel Tejada. Jeremy Pena. Something in that bucket. 

 

Comparables as a 20 year old and outcome at baseball maturity (26-28)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Comparable at 20 - Combination of his Father and Frank Thomas but better.  Outcome at maturity - Eric Hosmer

Arjun Nimmala - Comparable at 20 - Tommy Pham - outcome at maturity ???  Don't know yet. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Tommy Pham hit .232 or worse at every level between rookie ball and A+ for his first FOUR minor league seasons, then finally figured something out at the upper levels. 

Was he a star? No. But he has a 111 career wRC+ and got MVP votes once. If you hit like that as a good shortstop, you are Willy Adames. Miguel Tejada. Jeremy Pena. Something in that bucket. 

 

Of course someone has survived hitting .230 in the god-forsaken small s***** cities of America and gone on to hit .250 in MLB.  Someone has and I do believe Arjun Nimmala will be the second to do that. 

Actually what he probably has going for him, what is probably messing me up, but not fooling the smarter people is this. 

In 1996 the American League averages was .279 or something, maybe some other year it was higher. 

In 2026 the American League average is .238.

It was always known that in the really god-forsaken places, like the cess-pool that is Florida and in the heavy air and pot clouds on the Pacific coast that the level of offense, the average hitting line, was even lower then whatever it happened to be in the American League. 

I'm too lazy to look up but open to the possibility that the average hitter in these leagues Arjun is part of hits as Lenyn Sosa does in the American League, and Arjun is good compared to them.  

[Olerud363.354]

So if Arjun Nimmala played in the Pacific League of 2005 or the California league of 1996 or the Penn State League of 2014, just some better place in some better time, he wouldn't hit .230 with 13 homers, he'd hit .280 with 20 homers. 

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, Olerud363.354 said:

So of Arjun Nimmala played in the Pacific League of 2005 or the California league of 1996 or the Penn State League of 2014, just some better place in some better time, he wouldn't hit .230 with 13 homers, he'd hit .280 with 20 homers. 

No, he would just similarily not have his future defined by that. 

You asked for stars who did that and were given like 3 examples, and at least in my case it was the literal first person i looked at. 

You are just wrong about this, you can't just compare minor league batting averages and cap futures based on that. 

[Laika]

He's not wrong, he's PEDANTIC and actually thinking in the RIGHT WAY

Probabilistic thinking is what you need to do, and Olerud is great at it 

The problem is that there are things about Arjun Nimmala, physically and contextually which reasonably separate him from 99% of the players who hit .230 in two straight low minors seasons

Anecdotes of players hitting .230 in A and then turning into good MLB players are not that helpful because the opposite anecdote is way easier to find. Olerud is simply correct that players who have some pedigree and then fail to hit in the low minors for a year or two almost all fail. 

But you don't need to go far to find out why Nimmala hitting .232 in 2024 is not a huge issue BECAUSE HE HAD A .250 ISO THAT YEAR AND A 125 wRC+ C'MON MAN!!!!!!!!!

 

Most of these .230 hitting A ball first round busts in history were also slugging .300 and bouncing every throw to first base. Teenage Nimmala was out there like a gazelle on defense, taking his walks and hitting bombs, he just had a s***** batted ball profile. There is some signal in that but it's not worth being alarmist over. It does make you think he's probably not going to be a .260 MLB hitter. Probably more of a low AVG homers and walks guy, if he makes it.  

[jmomcc]

Jay Harry with two homers today. 
 

Austin Cates had a good start too over 6 innings with 8 ks. Like to see him go on a good run. 

[Olerud363.354]

On 5/28/2026 at 2:10 PM, Terminator said:

George Springer hit .179 in low A as a 21 year old and .219 as a 22 year old in AA.

Ben Rice hit .197 in the Complex League and A-Ball as a 21 year old in his first year in pro ball. There's two guys I found after looking for 5 minutes.

Nimmala is currently hitting .308 as a 20 year old in AA for whatever that is worth.

Now do the at bats

Ben rice - hit like s*** for 66 at bats - minor league average regressed to .281 over 836 at bats

George Springer - Hit .179 in like 20 at bats, then .316 next year in 433 at bats then the .219 later in the year in only 79 at bats.  His average was like .300 almost for that time period and over his minor league career was .301 in 1139 at bats. 

Arjun has hit -- .233 over 900 at bats in the minor leagues. 

Blue Jays message board (a.k.a. Jays centre) - Davis Schneider's good split against right handers is meaningless because we have to regress it to 1500 league average at bats or something.

Also Blue Jays Message Board - Arjun Nimmala's 900 at bats of .230 average is meaningless because George Springer hit .220 in 70 AA at bats at the end of a year he hit .300 overall.

Crazy day at Jays Centre, a little more crazy than usual.  

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

On 5/28/2026 at 2:41 PM, Stangstag said:

Burnt him to a crisp

Arjun - .230 average in 900 at bats, one stretch of 70 at bats hitting .300

Springer - .302 average in 1100 or so minor league at bats, one stretch of 70 at bats hitting .220

Ben Rice - .280 average in 900 or so minor league at bats, one stretch of 70 at bats hitting .197

Things Blue Jays Centre does not understand - sample size

Here is the thing.  As of yet no one has shown a player who hit below .250 in more than 500 at bats and succeeded in the majors.  Tommy Pham is close.  Hit .258 as a minor leaguer and only lost 2 points as a major leaguer .256

 

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

To be clear, Tommy Pham does really pass the spirit of the test.  Hit like s*** for like 1000 at bats, maybe more. 

But he rebounded quite well.  He started to hit better every year, better at 22 then 21, better at 23.  Tommy Pham worked hard.  Hit better and better every year, so many years.  Many years.  So many years passed.  But tommy never gave up.  

At age 22 he hit .like .290, and then again at age 25 I think.  Some injuries but he kept working.

Then Tommy had a miracle.  By age 26 he was hitting .320 in the minors and finally got 2 plate appearances in the major leagues. 

Tommy never gave up.  His slow start didn't stop him.  At age 29 Tommy finally got like 2/3 of a major league season in. 

Will Arjun be like Tommy Pham?  If so I guess we see him semi full time in the year 2035 along side 36 year old Vladdy.  Looking forward to it. 

[Olerud363.354]

On 5/28/2026 at 4:32 PM, jmomcc said:

No, he would just similarily not have his future defined by that. 

You asked for stars who did that and were given like 3 examples, and at least in my case it was the literal first person i looked at. 

You are just wrong about this, you can't just compare minor league batting averages and cap futures based on that. 

You absolutely can take minor league batting averages and cap future based on them.  As long as you consider large samples, park factors, league factors, 

A guy hitting .230, in 1000 minor league at bats in leagues that hit .280 and entering a 1995-2010 offense level has no chance.

A guy hitting .230, in 1000 minor league at bats in leagues that hit .230 and entering a 2026 offense level has a chance. 

The way to "win" this argument and "burn" me is to bring up the league offence factors in the 2026 American league and the minor league Arjun plays in, and point I am an old man just thinking 1996 numbers. 

That's the way you win the argument, not sample sizes of 70 at bats from George Springer. 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Here is the thing.  As of yet no one has shown a player who hit below .250 in more than 500 at bats and succeeded in the majors.  Tommy Pham is close.  Hit .258 as a minor leaguer and only lost 2 points as a major leaguer .256

Matt Olson hit .249  in 2427 minor league ABs.

Boom. Got 'em.

 

 

 

 

[Terminator]

Here's the thing though. Olerud is right, if Nimmala hits .230 his entire minor league career he won't amount to much in MLB. And I don't think anyone is disputing that.

But the hope is that he improves and that's where the disconnect is. Olerud is assuming he hits like this forever but the pro-Nimmala people are hoping he gets better. I think there is some hope for that as he was the 3rd youngest player at every stop he's been to and all these prospect sites talk about his projectability as he adds weight and matures.

If you want examples, there are players who struggle with BA at first in the minors and then get better.

Nimmala is out BAing Matt Olson who was a year older than him at every stop. Brandon Nimmo would be another guy in this bucket. He doesn't technically fit the less than .230 criteria, but he was sometimes 2 years older at some of these stops and was struggling with BA. His BA didn't explode until he was 23 in AAA in Vegas which is one of the most extreme hitter's parks in the world.

I'm sure there are others, it's not exactly easy to search this extremely arbitrary criteria lol. Especially when most guys have never been promoted as aggressively as Nimmala has. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

45 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Here's the thing though. Olerud is right, if Nimmala hits .230 his entire minor league career he won't amount to much in MLB. And I don't think anyone is disputing that.

But the hope is that he improves and that's where the disconnect is. Olerud is assuming he hits like this forever but the pro-Nimmala people are hoping he gets better

A lot of times people don't totally absorb what I say... which is my fault because I am much too wordy. 

What I have actually said is I kind of think Nimmala might hit .230 his entire minor league career, or maybe he'll hit a bit better, and I think he has a chance to succeed in the majors still.  

He is going to hit like .225 in a league that is hitting .238 and dropping.  By the time he gets here the American league will be hitting .233 if nothing changes. 

The numbers are just weird now, and I assume it's happening in the minors too.  The Boston Red Sox hit .283 when I was a kid, now they hit .245 and that is actually good for the American league they are fourth in batting average (though sub-par overall for offense) 

[Olerud363.354]

Jake Cook 2/3 3 walks, up to .210 .360 .250 or something 15 walks 16ks or so.

Not hitting like a guy with a new power swing, more like another Cavan Biggio.  Along with Joe Joe Parker that is two Cavan's. 

Not an insult.  Cavan was a fine player at times, disliked by some.  These new Cavan's may be a bit faster, a bit stronger we will see.   Will frustrate people when they put up .230 .350 .350 lines, but that will probably be worth a 120 OPS+ in 2029 MLB.

Sanchez continues to make his numbers respectable too.  Up to about .200 .300 .300.  

Sean Keys 3/4.  .280 .407 .545 for the year.   Is he the next Matt Olson?  The guy we will talk about when bringing up guys who hit .220 for a year but still made it?  Career average of .242 but plenty of time to increase it.