Blue Jays Minor League Highlights Thread

[Laika]

Tommy Pham hit .232 or worse at every level between rookie ball and A+ for his first FOUR minor league seasons, then finally figured something out at the upper levels. 

Was he a star? No. But he has a 111 career wRC+ and got MVP votes once. If you hit like that as a good shortstop, you are Willy Adames. Miguel Tejada. Jeremy Pena. Something in that bucket. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Tommy Pham hit .232 or worse at every level between rookie ball and A+ for his first FOUR minor league seasons, then finally figured something out at the upper levels. 

Was he a star? No. But he has a 111 career wRC+ and got MVP votes once. If you hit like that as a good shortstop, you are Willy Adames. Miguel Tejada. Jeremy Pena. Something in that bucket. 

 

Comparables as a 20 year old and outcome at baseball maturity (26-28)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Comparable at 20 - Combination of his Father and Frank Thomas but better.  Outcome at maturity - Eric Hosmer

Arjun Nimmala - Comparable at 20 - Tommy Pham - outcome at maturity ???  Don't know yet. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Tommy Pham hit .232 or worse at every level between rookie ball and A+ for his first FOUR minor league seasons, then finally figured something out at the upper levels. 

Was he a star? No. But he has a 111 career wRC+ and got MVP votes once. If you hit like that as a good shortstop, you are Willy Adames. Miguel Tejada. Jeremy Pena. Something in that bucket. 

 

Of course someone has survived hitting .230 in the god-forsaken small s***** cities of America and gone on to hit .250 in MLB.  Someone has and I do believe Arjun Nimmala will be the second to do that. 

Actually what he probably has going for him, what is probably messing me up, but not fooling the smarter people is this. 

In 1996 the American League averages was .279 or something, maybe some other year it was higher. 

In 2026 the American League average is .238.

It was always known that in the really god-forsaken places, like the cess-pool that is Florida and in the heavy air and pot clouds on the Pacific coast that the level of offense, the average hitting line, was even lower then whatever it happened to be in the American League. 

I'm too lazy to look up but open to the possibility that the average hitter in these leagues Arjun is part of hits as Lenyn Sosa does in the American League, and Arjun is good compared to them.  

[Olerud363.354]

So if Arjun Nimmala played in the Pacific League of 2005 or the California league of 1996 or the Penn State League of 2014, just some better place in some better time, he wouldn't hit .230 with 13 homers, he'd hit .280 with 20 homers. 

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, Olerud363.354 said:

So of Arjun Nimmala played in the Pacific League of 2005 or the California league of 1996 or the Penn State League of 2014, just some better place in some better time, he wouldn't hit .230 with 13 homers, he'd hit .280 with 20 homers. 

No, he would just similarily not have his future defined by that. 

You asked for stars who did that and were given like 3 examples, and at least in my case it was the literal first person i looked at. 

You are just wrong about this, you can't just compare minor league batting averages and cap futures based on that. 

[Laika]

He's not wrong, he's PEDANTIC and actually thinking in the RIGHT WAY

Probabilistic thinking is what you need to do, and Olerud is great at it 

The problem is that there are things about Arjun Nimmala, physically and contextually which reasonably separate him from 99% of the players who hit .230 in two straight low minors seasons

Anecdotes of players hitting .230 in A and then turning into good MLB players are not that helpful because the opposite anecdote is way easier to find. Olerud is simply correct that players who have some pedigree and then fail to hit in the low minors for a year or two almost all fail. 

But you don't need to go far to find out why Nimmala hitting .232 in 2024 is not a huge issue BECAUSE HE HAD A .250 ISO THAT YEAR AND A 125 wRC+ C'MON MAN!!!!!!!!!

 

Most of these .230 hitting A ball first round busts in history were also slugging .300 and bouncing every throw to first base. Teenage Nimmala was out there like a gazelle on defense, taking his walks and hitting bombs, he just had a s***** batted ball profile. There is some signal in that but it's not worth being alarmist over. It does make you think he's probably not going to be a .260 MLB hitter. Probably more of a low AVG homers and walks guy, if he makes it.  

[jmomcc]

Jay Harry with two homers today. 
 

Austin Cates had a good start too over 6 innings with 8 ks. Like to see him go on a good run.