Jays Signing Cease 7 years 210M

[Bob_Gratton]

5 minutes ago, thatoneguy said:

So still not even close to the Dodgers' deferral ******** on this one.

Even Yankees, Mets, Red Sox can't be close to Dodgers about defferal money. We should be happy that Cease agreed for defferal.  This mean we can spend more for someone like Tucker or Schwarber, and for the bullpen. If we trade Berrios , we can also sign another SP. Maybe Imai or Valdez to replace Berrios 

[Omar]

14 minutes ago, thatoneguy said:

Can you breakdown FIP by inning? Obviously you would expect an increase deeper into the ballgame, but a couple of Padres fans I've been talking to say it is disproportionately true with Cease.

No I don't think you can do FIP by inning (open to correction).  It is a measure of the season as a whole. But why would you need to because it encapsulates hr's, walks, strikeouts, innings pitched, and hit by pitch.  The number is sound because it uses a fip constant to make it scale like era.  Generally because his FIP is lower than his era it means his underlying performance is better than what his era shows.  ie. maybe bad luck or bad defense, etc.

[Pendleton]

40 minutes ago, Laika said:

Cease, Goose, Biebs, Savage, Lauerios is wild 

Rogers, Bradish, Kremer, Wells, Povich

[The_DH]

22 minutes ago, thatoneguy said:

One thing going under the radar here for Cease is that he going from below average framing (SD) to one of the best in all of MLB in Kirk. Obviously the ABS system will devalue it a bit, but you can’t challenge every call.

Will framing matter going into the pitches being reviewed by the robo-ump?

[glory]

Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis

Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios.

What a difference a year makes. 

[max silver]

1 minute ago, The_DH said:

Will framing matter going into the pitches being reviewed by the robo-ump?

Yeah it's still going to matter a lot. Kirk is elite at converting borderline pitches into strikes and this isn't going away with the challenge system. Given the low number of available challenges per game I only expect the egregious calls are going to be challenged.

[Terminator]

Jays probably have a pitch mix plan for him. Could see him add a splitter or something to get to that extra gear.

Love that he signed so early. Locking in him and Bieber before December is a best-case scenario. 

The World Series will be easy to make again 

 

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis

Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios.

What a difference a year makes. 

I wonder if we could potentially see a Bieber extension mid season if the command bounces back sufficiently. The long term pitching outlook has changed dramatically compared to last offseason. 

[The_DH]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Scherzer-Francis

Gausman-Cease-Bieber-Yesavage-Berrios.

What a difference a year makes. 

Let's not get ahead too much.  Gotta see if Yesavage is real and if Bieber and Berrios is healthy enough.

[Vancouverite]

46 minutes ago, Laika said:

Cease, Goose, Biebs, Savage, Lauerios is wild 

Way to canadinize our rotation. Sounds like a hockey team haha

[Vancouverite]

22 minutes ago, Bob_Gratton said:

Great move from Atkins👍 So next steps, trade Berrios for a good reliever and prospects , then sign Tatsuya Imai.  About Bichette, need to be careful and be 100% sure he's healthy. Tucker seem to be a safer gambling.  Marte? Will cost too much. Arizona will want Barger or Clement + prospects like King, Parker.

Id rather spend the money on Bo than Marte. Losing that kind of player/prospect depth will hurt

[Laika]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Jays probably have a pitch mix plan for him. Could see him add a splitter or something to get to that extra gear.

Love that he signed so early. Locking in him and Bieber before December is a best-case scenario. 

The World Series will be easy to make again 

 

I believe he has tried every changeup under the sun but we will see 

[Omar]

32 minutes ago, BTS said:

Gray and Cease coming off the board the last two days while Baltimore is sitting on like 2 MLB starters 

Actually if you go onto the Orioles Hangout they have a thread on the Cease signing and there are posters on there trying to convince others that Kremer is the equivalent of Cease. 

[Terminator]

Locking him in now could lead to savings down the line.

This team already has the power of friendship behind it and the WAGs are gushing over the org/city.
 

Something to be said about joining a team on the cusp and not a team that’s already won it to. The latter feels cheap, you saw how vapid Snell/Glasnow looked during their whole can’t beat em join em celebration. The city of LA barely cared. 

But striking early could lead to:

-Bo really wants to be a part of this and could push to get a deal done.

-Scherzer was sounding like he might be coming back, perhaps he’ll go the Kershaw route where  he leaves money on the table and plans on a midseason debut, thus adding SP depth out of thin air. 

-If it comes down to us and another team like San Fran for Tucker, we would obviously be more enticing now that we’ve got an ace in the fold. No way he’d choose that shithole town over TO now. 

[Omar]

 

 

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

I believe he has tried every changeup under the sun but we will see 

Cease did have a rarely used changeup last season that garnered elite results so perhaps it could be a useful pitch for him if used more frequently. He had crazy 20 MPH separation between his 4 seamer and changeup but he threw all of 34 of them exclusively against left handed hitters. 

[Terminator]

Just now, Omar said:

 

 

I absolutely detest that site but when they say good things about our players I believe every word

[Sasky05]

13 minutes ago, Bob_Gratton said:

Even Yankees, Mets, Red Sox can't be close to Dodgers about defferal money. We should be happy that Cease agreed for defferal.  This mean we can spend more for someone like Tucker or Schwarber, and for the bullpen. If we trade Berrios , we can also sign another SP. Maybe Imai or Valdez to replace Berrios 

I think you guys may be undervaluing Berrios. He was 16-11 with a 3.60 era in 2024. He's posted an era below 3.9 in 7 of the past 10 seasons. He's been very consistent and if he's healthy I think we can expect a sub 4 era next year. He'll be an incredibly valuable 5th starter.

[max silver]

Just now, Terminator said:

Locking him in now could lead to savings down the line.

This team already has the power of friendship behind it and the WAGs are gushing over the org/city.
 

Something to be said about joining a team on the cusp and not a team that’s already won it to. The latter feels cheap, you saw how vapid Snell/Glasnow looked during their whole can’t beat em join em celebration. The city of LA barely cared. 

But striking early could lead to:

-Bo really wants to be a part of this and could push to get a deal done.

-Scherzer was sounding like he might be coming back, perhaps he’ll go the Kershaw route where  he leaves money on the table and plans on a midseason debut, thus adding SP depth out of thin air. 

-If it comes down to us and another team like San Fran for Tucker, we would obviously be more enticing now that we’ve got an ace in the fold. No way he’d choose that shithole town over TO now. 

I do tend to believe Bo when he says he wants to win a world series with Vlad, and with how painfully close the team came to winning it all I'd hope he puts his money where his mouth is and be willing to come back on a fair market value deal. Hopefully there isn't a team willing to blow away the rest of the market on a dramatic overpay as this front office has been pretty unwilling to dramatically overshoot their valuations aside from tacking on an extra year/adding a bit of extra deferred cash. 

[Terminator]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

I believe he has tried every changeup under the sun but we will see 

Pete Walker is absolutely shitfaced in his garage watching video and throwing 65 mph splitters trying to figure out how to get that pitch in Cease’s arsenal 

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

It's a massive coup. The more I think about, Cease is clearly the most desirable arm on the market factoring in age/durability/skill/not being an ******* who deliberately crosses up your catcher

Didn't want Valdez or King for other reasons 

Cease was a great target 

Worth giving him the extra year to get it done before the winter meetings 

Now they don't have to wonder which B target to try and settle for 

[The_DH]

1 minute ago, Sasky05 said:

I think you guys may be undervaluing Berrios. He was 16-11 with a 3.60 era in 2024. He's posted an era below 3.9 in 7 of the past 10 seasons. He's been very consistent and if he's healthy I think we can expect a sub 4 era next year. He'll be an incredibly valuable 5th starter.

I'm just thinking of the incremental value of a top closer over a 5th starter.  I think Berrios has value.  

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Pete Walker is absolutely shitfaced in his garage watching video and throwing 65 mph splitters trying to figure out how to get that pitch in Cease’s arsenal 

Cease threw a 77 MPH changeup last season so you might be onto something. 😁

[BTS]

3 minutes ago, The_DH said:

I'm just thinking of the incremental value of a top closer over a 5th starter.  I think Berrios has value.  

Baltimore will be after him in January when all the good starters ignore their 1-year offers. Judging by the Ward trade, Basallo should do it. 

[Laika]

Tyler O'Neill for Berrios is fair 

[Terminator]

Just now, Laika said:

Tyler O'Neill for Berrios is fair 

They get their ace and we bolster LF with a short side platoon player. It’s a win-win. 

[BTS]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Tyler O'Neill for Berrios is fair 

I think I'd rather have Berrios on the 2026 team, but O'Neill's deal expiring a year earlier makes it enticing 

[thatoneguy]

Would love Cease to add the change-up more regularly. Having a consistent third pitch to go to would be amazing with his FB velocity.

[bronson44]

If he wants to learn a splitter, he`s in the right place

[John_Havok]

Not gonna bother looking up average # of starts over the past few years for Gausman, Berrios and Cease because it would probably be quicker to count the # of starts they didnt make. All extremely durable. 

Bieber's health will be a concern no doubt

Yesavage likely won't have much in the way of limitations ... 98 IP in the minors, 14 reg season and just short of 28 in the post-season so... 140 IP in 2025. some turns skipped here and there down the stretch to keep him fresh for the playoffs but other than that.... That's a pretty worry-free rotation when it comes to overall pitcher health.