Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[jmomcc]

23 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

So 60 is plus, not an all star?

Again, how the the different sites use the 20-80 scale is arbitrary according to their own convention.  They even use different criteria for when a prospect has graduated to MLB, which is why a player may show up on one top 100 list but not another.

All star is just shorthand. Every team gets one.
It translates to something like 2 war projection for average and 3 war for plus. 

Obviously its not foolproof. Some 45fv guys end up being stars. 

Its POSSIBLE that 60fv on BA means a 2 war projection. Seems unlikely. 

I also really doubt it is arbitrary at all. In fact i think if you asked eric longenhagen and someone at BA to describe a 60fv guy, the answer would be extremely similar. These are based on scouting scales that have existed for ever. 

[Jimcanuck]

7 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

All star is just shorthand. Every team gets one.
It translates to something like 2 war projection for average and 3 war for plus. 

Obviously its not foolproof. Some 45fv guys end up being stars. 

Its POSSIBLE that 60fv on BA means a 2 war projection. Seems unlikely. 

I also really doubt it is arbitrary at all. In fact i think if you asked eric longenhagen and someone at BA to describe a 60fv guy, the answer would be extremely similar. These are based on scouting scales that have existed for ever. 

Just so you know, Longenhagen's practice is that any prospect that is 50 FV or above is a top 100 prospect.  So he has an arbitrary practice of having roughly 100 50 FV or higher prospects at any time.

BA does not use the above practice.

[Laika]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-baseball-americas-updated-mlb-prospect-grades-risk-system/

 

[jmomcc]

4 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Just so you know, Longenhagen's practice is that any prospect that is 50 FV or above is a top 100 prospect.  So he has an arbitrary practice of having roughly 100 50 FV or higher prospects at any time.

BA does not use the above practice.

I don't usually look at their top 100 but at the 'board'. You can see on there for the beginning of the year report last year, they went to 121 propects 50fv or better. By the update it was 95, presumably because of promotions. 2024 was similar. 

So, they don't seem married to a 100 as a cutoff. 
 

 

[jmomcc]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-baseball-americas-updated-mlb-prospect-grades-risk-system/

 

Yea their little blurbs for each grade are identical to fangraphs essentially. 

I need to wrap my head around how adjusted grades work, but they seem interesting. 

[Jimcanuck]

10 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I don't usually look at their top 100 but at the 'board'. You can see on there for the beginning of the year report last year, they went to 121 propects 50fv or better. By the update it was 95, presumably because of promotions. 2024 was similar. 

So, they don't seem married to a 100 as a cutoff. 
 

 

That's why I said roughly 100.  I have read articles where Longenhagen says he intentionally uses that cutoff (probably as a control on grade creep).

Forget about consistency between the various prospect sites, they all have their own arbitrary practices.

[jmomcc]

17 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

That's why I said roughly 100.  I have read articles where Longenhagen says he intentionally uses that cutoff (probably as a control on grade creep).

Forget about consistency between the various prospect sites, they all have their own arbitrary practices.

121 is 21% above 100. That's quite a wide range for 'roughly' 100. 

I also think that's probably just from experience. There are only so many guys who could be 50FV or above at any one time. 
 

Edit: its been as high as 137 and as low as 112 but none of their beginning of the year rankings has been within 10 of 100 recently. 

[jerb]

 

[Laika]

This is weird timing. Hoping someone trades for him? The 40 man is at 39 with him and Cease and Ponce 

[glory]

Wow that's surprising about Yariel. Hopefully someone trades for him and the Jays aren't on the hook for the rest of his money. It's not that much but could save some bullets for bigger signings. Either way, I like that the FO isn't letting money dictate decision making. They didn't think Yariel was worthy of a bullpen/40 man spot, and they cut bait. 

[Jays24]

14 minutes ago, jerb said:

 

He was the teams best reliever for the first half of the season.  Absolutely wild that theyre cutting bait with him when hes so owed so much money.  Need to see the follow up move here but just burning money like this wasn't on my bingo card.  

[Laika]

tbh be was not very good and got very lucky for most of the year 

They are probably hoping someone takes him but if not I guess they can option him? Buffalo Rodriguez 

[jerb]

 

[Jays24]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

tbh be was not very good and got very lucky for most of the year 

They are probably hoping someone takes him but if not I guess they can option him? Buffalo Rodriguez 

I get the advanced numbers were nice to Yariel but i also care about the end result... Yariel was the tops best or near best reliever for half a season, thats not nothing.  

My question was going to be if no one claims him, can we still keep him in the organization by sending him toBuffalo?  Does Yariel have to accept or can he decline and still get all his money?

[Jays24]

2 minutes ago, jerb said:

 

So looks like this was the smart play to not lose anyone off the 40 man with this calculated gamble? If so, well done!

[G-Snarls]

25 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

He was the teams best reliever for the first half of the season.  Absolutely wild that theyre cutting bait with him when hes so owed so much money.  Need to see the follow up move here but just burning money like this wasn't on my bingo card.  

Damn 

Sad to see him go

Hope something good is incoming that we don't know about yet 

[glory]

Sounds like he already cleared waivers so likely no trade on the way. Basically what Straw was with the Guardians: off the 40 man but still in the org. If he can pitch in Buffalo in 2026 then that wouldn’t be a terrible scenario. Could always add him back if he figures something out.

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Just so you know, Longenhagen's practice is that any prospect that is 50 FV or above is a top 100 prospect.  So he has an arbitrary practice of having roughly 100 50 FV or higher prospects at any time.

BA does not use the above practice.

Not to mention the staff and resources from BA to Fangraphs isn't particularly close, and the MLB uses Baseball America and Pipeline rankings in conjunction with awarding teams compensation when called upon.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, jerb said:

 

Holy.

 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

tbh be was not very good and got very lucky for most of the year 

They are probably hoping someone takes him but if not I guess they can option him? Buffalo Rodriguez 

They can't option him without his consent, he'll end up a FA.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Maybe they're going to try stretching Yariel out as a starter again in AAA.

[Stangstag]

31 minutes ago, glory said:

Sounds like he already cleared waivers so likely no trade on the way. Basically what Straw was with the Guardians: off the 40 man but still in the org. If he can pitch in Buffalo in 2026 then that wouldn’t be a terrible scenario. Could always add him back if he figures something out.

Also handy if someone gets injured 

[keggy]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

I get the advanced numbers were nice to Yariel but i also care about the end result... Yariel was the tops best or near best reliever for half a season, thats not nothing.  

My question was going to be if no one claims him, can we still keep him in the organization by sending him toBuffalo?  Does Yariel have to accept or can he decline and still get all his money?

It's not even really advanced stats. Yariel is basically Berrios but only for 1 inning at a time.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Man this org has a lot of starting pitching at every level.

 

7 in MLB counting Lauer not counting Bloss who's injured

8 in AAA not counting guys like Amalfi, Wallace and Harrison who do start at times plus now maybe Yariel too

7 in AA

 

 

[Spanky__99]

21 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Maybe they're going to try stretching Yariel out as a starter again in AAA.

It's hard to say what they are doing here, one thing is for certain, the Jays do owe him that contract in full. Surprising.

[The_DH]

when he got left off the post season roster it became obvious.  I thought somebody would want him but I guess not.

[L54]

39 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Man this org has a lot of starting pitching at every level.

 

7 in MLB counting Lauer not counting Bloss who's injured

8 in AAA not counting guys like Amalfi, Wallace and Harrison who do start at times plus now maybe Yariel too

7 in AA

 

 

Doesn’t every team have full rosters at every level? 

[rydermike]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

They can't option him without his consent, he'll end up a FA.

If he declines and becomes a FA, wouldnt that mean he gives up the $17M? 

[Eat My Shatkins]

33 minutes ago, L54 said:

Doesn’t every team have full rosters at every level? 

18-20 potential starting pitchers at AAA and AA combined is a normal full roster? I don't recall ever seeing the Jays with that many before.

[Bob_Gratton]

2 hours ago, glory said:

Wow that's surprising about Yariel. Hopefully someone trades for him and the Jays aren't on the hook for the rest of his money. It's not that much but could save some bullets for bigger signings. Either way, I like that the FO isn't letting money dictate decision making. They didn't think Yariel was worthy of a bullpen/40 man spot, and they cut bait. 

I don't understand this move, because Rodriguez wasn't bad , he was one of our best relievers with Fischer, when Swanson and Green was awful.  I have more confidence in Rodriguez than guys like Garcia, Little, Francis.