Offseason Roster Thread 2025-26

[L54]

13 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

He's light in years at that money.

Not crazy about giving him 10 years just to lower AAV 

This is how the Padres backed themselves into a corner 

[Jimcanuck]

2 minutes ago, L54 said:

Really that was their contact estimate? Feels very heavy 

See my edit - 11/$360M or $32.7M AAV

[L54]

2 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

See my edit - 11/$360M or $32.7M AAV

I meant Bo’s but I guess they both seem player friendly 

[Jimcanuck]

4 minutes ago, L54 said:

I meant Bo’s but I guess they both seem player friendly 

Maybe he'll take a bit less like $28M AAV to stay with Vlad and the Jays, but player's taking discounts doesn't happen that often

We will know his market value soon enough

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, L54 said:

Not crazy about giving him 10 years just to lower AAV 

This is how the Padres backed themselves into a corner 

Either way it won't be @ 8/240 is what I mean. Lets see how the market shakes out.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Jimcanuck said:

We will know his market value soon enough

This... As you've mentioned BA's estimate, ESPN's is 8/192, MLBTR's 8/208, can't remember what FG's Longenhagen was? I feel the Jays will match Bichette's BO <--- Best Offer... see what I did there. 😜

[glory]

I could end up being wrong but I think Tucker is going to get a lot less than people think, especially if the Dodgers are lukewarm for him. How many big spending teams will be seriously in on him? I think the Yankees are focusing more on Bellinger, and the Dodgers don't need him (especially since their best prospects are OF’s). Phillies, Giants and Jays might be the realistic market. I can’t think of any other big spenders that would overpay for him, and Phillies might focus more on Schwarber. Of course all it takes is one desperate team.

Curious to see how it shakes out. Since it’s the MLB off season, we will have to wait another 2 months before we see the results.

[Laika]

1 hour ago, glory said:

I could end up being wrong but I think Tucker is going to get a lot less than people think, especially if the Dodgers are lukewarm for him. How many big spending teams will be seriously in on him? I think the Yankees are focusing more on Bellinger, and the Dodgers don't need him (especially since their best prospects are OF’s). Phillies, Giants and Jays might be the realistic market. I can’t think of any other big spenders that would overpay for him, and Phillies might focus more on Schwarber. Of course all it takes is one desperate team.

Curious to see how it shakes out. Since it’s the MLB off season, we will have to wait another 2 months before we see the results.

He's barely better than Bo Bichette

Tucker is a really good player but he has no standout / elite tools. This isn't a $400M+ player. 

I could see nobody wanting to give him $300M. If you cover the names it's hard to discern his 2025 season from say 2018 Andrew Benintendi 

If you need a bat (that can play defense too) and can get Bellinger for 5/$125M or Bo for 7/$175, or something like that, it's hard to justify spending so much more for Kyle Tucker

[Olerud363.354]

47 minutes ago, Laika said:

Tucker is a really good player but he has no standout / elite tools. This isn't a $400M+ player. 

He has the same lifetime wRC+ and wOBA as Vlad Guerrero Jr. with much better defense and baserunning.

Not that you are wrong.  The things that he is great at are chase% and bb% and I don't know enough to say if those are tools that will age well.   Things that he is good are sweet spot %.   Things Guerrero is good at is hitting the ball harder than anyone but not quite getting the results you expect consistently (though has had his moments for months at a time, including the 2025 playoffs).  Tucker's tools, outside of plate discipline, are from what I can see, worse than Guerroros (exit velocity, spring speed, arm all worse... which sort of makes you wonder if Guerrero should be playing some outfield and third). 

Anyway the agents will put together a package highlighting the players strengths and making the comparions good as possible.  So the agent will have a Tucker/Guerrero comparison package that will use wRC+, defense and baserunning to argue Tucker deserves as much if not more.  Not saying agent will convince a team, but just needs to convince one. 

  

[Laika]

But Vlad is the Entertainer of the Year! 

[Olerud363.354]

23 minutes ago, Laika said:

But Vlad is the Entertainer of the Year! 

 

Tucker.   Not entertaining.  No 80 grade tools but better WAR than Vladdy.  If I was an agent I'd sell Vlad on the tools and entertainment, and Tucker on the solid performance.  

The question is whether the the data supports Tucker going forward as a 5 WAR guy without elite tools? 5 WAR is 5 WAR whether you do it with tools or not.  But the tools may indicate something about how it goes moving forward to age 29-39.  

[Laika]

4 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

 

Tucker.   Not entertaining.  No 80 grade tools but better WAR than Vladdy.  If I was an agent I'd sell Vlad on the tools and entertainment, and Tucker on the solid performance.  

The question is whether the the data supports Tucker going forward as a 5 WAR guy without elite tools? 5 WAR is 5 WAR whether you do it with tools or not.  But the tools may indicate something about how it goes moving forward to age 29-39.  

It definitely won't 

Steamer might be low on him but it only has 3.7 WAR (I don't think any other projection systems are out right now) 

He is 29 in two months. Aging curve says he is now on the backside of things. 

If you start him at 4.5 WAR and take off 0.5 per year, he's worth like $270M if one WAR is worth $11M now and you inflate that slightly over time. I think a team can justify the 10/$300M if they want to get better NOW but that's his value IMO. 

[Terminator]

If someone gives Tucker a megacontract it will be because they convinced themselves that (1) he would have been an ~8 WAR player the past two years until those seasons were derailed by injury, (2) those injuries were flukes and he's likely to be healthy moving forward, and (3) 1 and 2 mean he's more like a 6 WAR player moving forward not a 4 WAR player.

I don't even think it's that far fetched to think all of the above, but gambling that a player's health will improve as he gets older is a very dangerous game. For that reason, it's better to not stray too far away from the projections.

[Governator]

14 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Maybe he'll take a bit less like $28M AAV to stay with Vlad and the Jays, but player's taking discounts doesn't happen that often

We will know his market value soon enough

 

Yea no way he's taking a hometown discount.  This isn't a Bieber situation and he just saw his bestie get a top tier contract.

[Jimcanuck]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

He's barely better than Bo Bichette

No legit baseball person will agree with this

[Laika]

10 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

No legit baseball person will agree with this

Steamer 2026

3.7 WAR - Tucker
3.6 WAR - Bo 

lmao 

Peak season - 4.9 fWAR for both 

Bo is a full  year younger and has more "defensive utility" 

[Jimcanuck]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Steamer 2026

3.7 WAR - Tucker
3.6 WAR - Bo 

lmao 

Peak season - 4.9 fWAR for both 

Bo is a full  year younger and has more "defensive utility" 

I've looked at 3 top 500 lists.  Tucker top 20, Bichette around 100.

Bo WAR last 5 years - 4.9, 4.8, 3.9, 0.3, 3.8

Tucker - 4.9, 4.9 4.9, 4.2, 4.5

You should probably stop this narrative now

[Laika]

It's not even a narrative, hahaha. It's facts. 

They are pretty close in talent. Tucker probably gets $100M or $150M more but Bo has a shot to outperform him from here on. Tucker is at best 1 win better right now. 

There is an argument that Bo is actually quite underrated right now 

[glory]

One thing that needs to be factored in is how much money the Jays actually have to spend this winter. We are assuming Rogers is willing to go near the Cohen Tax due to how 2025 turned out, but that's not a certainty. If they can only afford one gigantic FA splash, then I think the rotation is the much bigger need. The 2027 rotation as of now is Yesavage and Berrios. The Jays will be losing Springer and Varsho after 2026, and Gausman and Bieber in the rotation. It doesn't appear like they have anything internally that can replace those guys at the moment (things can obviously change depending how 2026 goes for the farm system). 

Overpaying a SP (Cease, Imai) and then trading for Donovan ($5.4M Arb 2 projection, 3.0 fWAR 2026 projection from Steamer) might be the type of off season that makes more sense. 

[Laika]

21 minutes ago, glory said:

One thing that needs to be factored in is how much money the Jays actually have to spend this winter. We are assuming Rogers is willing to go near the Cohen Tax due to how 2025 turned out, but that's not a certainty. If they can only afford one gigantic FA splash, then I think the rotation is the much bigger need. The 2027 rotation as of now is Yesavage and Berrios. The Jays will be losing Springer and Varsho after 2026, and Gausman and Bieber in the rotation. It doesn't appear like they have anything internally that can replace those guys at the moment (things can obviously change depending how 2026 goes for the farm system). 

Overpaying a SP (Cease, Imai) and then trading for Donovan ($5.4M Arb 2 projection, 3.0 fWAR 2026 projection from Steamer) might be the type of off season that makes more sense. 

Yeah I agree

If Rogers is keeping the payroll flat, then the position player side of things is "fine" as it is

They can add nobody and field a complete lineup. It's flimsy though, and needs depth to cover injuries or flops. 

In 2027 you assume Santander slides to full time DH when George leaves. 

[Olerud363.354]

Both have played about 750 games, 5 fWAR per 150 for Tucker, 4 fWAR per 150 for Bo

Bo 122 wRC+.  Tucker 138 wRC+.

Tucker is better going backward.  But very slow bat for such a good hitter.  

But actually Bo even slower bat.  Vlad fast bat.  Tucker medium.  Bo slow.  I think it is true see https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Laika]

The main point is that Bo might be pretty close to "market inefficiency" territory 

Yes, anybody is going to give Tucker more money because of the kinds of skills he has. The walks, the ability to pull the ball in the air. Those give you some confidence that he could age gracefully. 

But I don't know how people are justifying these $400M projections for Tucker and then saying they won't give Bo the Willy Adames deal. 

It just seems like some classic can't see the forest for the trees stuff going on. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

But I don't know how people are justifying these $400M projections for Tucker and then saying they won't give Bo the Willy Adames deal. 

If you just go by WAR and say Tucker's fWar worth a 400 million than Bo fWAR worth 320 million, based on the 5 to 4 ratio that the fangraphs website reports. 

If you say the ratio between something other than 5-4 than maybe there are reasons that you have but one of the reasons is NOT backward fWAR. 

[Olerud363.354]

Soto = 750 million (2026 projected = 6)

Vladdy = 500 million (2026 projected = 5)

Tucker = 400 million (2026 projected = 4.4)

Bo = ? million (2026 projected = 4)

[jmomcc]

Its interesting steamer has bo as a non negative defender next season. 

I think I agree these contract estimates underrate him. 

[Jimcanuck]

38 minutes ago, Laika said:

The main point is that Bo might be pretty close to "market inefficiency" territory 

Yes, anybody is going to give Tucker more money because of the kinds of skills he has. The walks, the ability to pull the ball in the air. Those give you some confidence that he could age gracefully. 

But I don't know how people are justifying these $400M projections for Tucker and then saying they won't give Bo the Willy Adames deal. 

It just seems like some classic can't see the forest for the trees stuff going on. 

"He's barely better than Bo Bichette" was dumn

They are about $80M apart lol

[Laika]

3 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

"He's barely better than Bo Bichette" was dumn

It's demonstrably true though 

I mean what more do you want lmao. 0.4 WAR is a rounding error 

[Orgfiller]

17 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

Its interesting steamer has bo as a non negative defender next season. 

I think I agree these contract estimates underrate him. 

Non negative in this case means the positional adjustment from SS makes up for his otherwise below average defense at the position. Historically Bo has never provided "negative" defensive value because relatively bad defense at SS is still valuable. In 2025 he was horrendous though. The projections are regressing him to his career mean, but it doesn't account for the fact that he's a beefy boy now with leg injuries beginning to mount.

[jmomcc]

1 minute ago, Orgfiller said:

Non negative in this case means the positional adjustment from SS makes up for his otherwise below average defense at the position. Historically Bo has never provided "negative" defensive value because relatively bad defense at SS is still valuable. In 2025 he was horrendous though. The projections are regressing him to his career mean, but it doesn't account for the fact that he's a beefy boy now with leg injuries beginning to mount.

Yea i'm beginning to doubt these projections then. The defensive ones seem all over the place. 

[Orgfiller]

Just now, jmomcc said:

Yea i'm beginning to doubt these projections then. The defensive ones seem all over the place. 

To be fair, regression to the mean could have you believe that Bo could very well work himself back into shape, and return to his "bad but good enough because he's a shortstop" defensive value. Naturally the projections don't have all the information available. Bo is entering his age 28 season, and this isn't normally where you'd expect defensive utility to fall off a cliff.

The Varsho projection on the other hand, makes absolutely no sense. Has to be an error in the inputs.