World Series pre-GDT Discussion - JAYS vs. Dodgers

[BTS]

Starting this for all discussion about the upcoming WORLD SERIES FEATURING THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS 

[Big_Walleye]

So youre saying there's a chance??!!

We'll be heavy underdogs in this series, but that's the beautiful thing about baseball.  It often defies the odds.

It would be nice if we could avoid digging ourselves a hole this series and win the first 2 at home.

[PitaBaby]

IS THIS REAL LIFE

[Terminator]

We can beat these guys. The Yankees and Mariners have good rotations and we hammered them. Dodgers bullpen isn't great either.

We will be underdogs but I'm seeing -180 right now. That's doable.

[Terminator]

I wonder what the plan is for Bo. Might see a 5-man bench with IKF.

Some of our relievers don't even make an appearance. 

[BTS]

3 minutes ago, Terminator said:

We can beat these guys. The Yankees and Mariners have good rotations and we hammered them. Dodgers bullpen isn't great either.

We will be underdogs but I'm seeing -180 right now. That's doable.

The Dodgers offense scares me more than their pitching staff. I think the Jays will score runs. But the Dodgers offense is a completely different animal when its firing on all cylinders. 

[Terminator]

11 minutes ago, BTS said:

The Dodgers offense scares me more than their pitching staff. I think the Jays will score runs. But the Dodgers offense is a completely different animal when its firing on all cylinders. 

Yeah the offense is scary too but it feels like it's manageable if we pitch well, particularly the back half which consists of Edman, Kike Hernandez, and Pages.

If you just kind of eyeball it, it seems like the Yanks and M's lineup are comparable. The Yankees had a higher wRC+ on the season and the Mariners tied with them so that tracks.

[John_Havok]

One thing you know for certain, their pitching staff will be 100% ready to exploit any perceived holes in any player's swings or approaches. The Jays will need to be prepared. 

Honestly, I dunno how you prepare for their top 3 hitters. Ohtani is baseball Jesus, Betts is en fuego and Freddy is Freeman. Ya just know Teo is going to hit a bomb in an important spot at some point just to make all the casuals whine about not re-signing him. 

But, like any other baseball game or series, anything can happen. This series is 100% going to be framed as Vlad vs Ohtani. Superstar vs Megastar. 

 

[BTS]

22 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah the offense is scary too but it feels like it's manageable if we pitch well, particularly the back half which consists of Edman, Kike Hernandez, and Pages.

If you just kind of eyeball it, it seems like the Yanks and M's lineup are comparable. The Yankees had a higher wRC+ on the season and the Mariners tied with them so that tracks.

I know their season-long wRC+ says Seattle was on par with them offensively, but I'm not really buying it going forward. Seattle was running AAA talent out there in the 8 and 9 hole the entire ALCS, and that's aside from the fact that Crawford can't hit. It was embarrassing. Ohtani/Betts/Freeman/Smith/Muncy/Teo is just an insane top-6, and Pages and Edman can both hit too in the bottom 3rd. 

[SeranthonySantander]

Some of their starters are due for a slip up.  Ohtani isn't always lights out.  Snell I am worried about the most.  Roki and the bullpen can be gotten to.  Their starters aren't going to go 8 every game.

[Grant77]

A couple of familiar plotlines played out in our first two series. For us to have success, the first 2 will need to continue and the third will have to change.

First, is the bottom of the lineup: 

Our bottom 3 guys hit .276 (21/76) with 7 extra base hits.

Seattle's guys hit .113 (8/71) with 0 extra base hits.

Second is the defense:

There are no team stats in the playoffs for defense that I can find, but the difference was extremely evident in the first 2 series. From the double plays for us, to the errors in big spots for our opponents, it has just made a difference in all of the close games. Look no further than IKF's single last night that would have been an easy out of Gimi were fielding.

The Dodgers were 18th in defense this year, which was between the average Yankees and horrendous Mariners. It will be important for us to exploit that difference again.

The more concerning trend is in the bullpen, where we have given up an astounding 11 home runs in 11 games and got out pitched pretty badly by Seattle's strong bullpen.

I don't have a lot of confidence that this can change, but at least Hoffman is doing well. I do think, however, we can exploit a weak Dodgers bullpen that has walked 19 batters in just 27 postseason innings and relies heavily on a lot of unproven arms. The key will be actually forcing them to use the bullpen, unlike the Brewers.

 

[John_Havok]

23minutes later....

 

[Laika]

Huge underdogs but the Jays:

• Have hit good SP all playoffs long
• Have a superior, rock solid defense
• Have enough tricks in the SP bag to keep it close

The Dodgers have a good pen but it's not invincible. Sasaki, Vesia, Sheehan, Banda, Treinen. 

Banda and Treinen were near replacement level in the regular season. Vesia is a lefty sitting 93. Sasaki taking over that closer role could be a sneaky blessing - what if the gas can Sasaki from the regular season shows up? Yeah he throws 100 and looks nasty but his K-BB isn't dominant in the playoffs. He's giving up contact. 

It might be a closer matchup than oddsmakers are telling you. 

I do trust that the Jays will have a solid gameplan against these Dodgers SP and will do better than the Brewers, who probably also had a solid gameplan because that's what they do but probably didn't have the actual raw talent to support it that the Jays do. Milwaukee was a bit worse than Toronto at the core offensive skills in the season, and they were perhaps too reliant on sneaky-good role players and value adds, whereas Toronto kind of has all of that but also the big boppers in Vlad and Springer. Chourio, their preternatural star, was hobbled all series with a nasty hamstring strain. Andrew Vaughn and Brice Turang don't exactly make anyone nervous. 

Steal game 1 and make it a series. 

The Jays bullpen is terrifying at this point and I am not sure what the hell they will do. Gulp. 

[John_Havok]

Sooooo close...

[hanton]

We will be the underdogs for sure.

Dodgers as a team have even splits so you can't really neutralize them with lefties especially with the 3 batter/end of inning rule

BA .255 vs lefties

BA .252 vs righties

The Dodger bullpen is good but not elite (Padres) - middle relievers can be exposed

Roberts relies on Vesia and Treinen in late and close situations, Sasaki is now the closer - triple digits with a slider in the 80's - wipe out stuff.

On defense Pages is their best outfielder, huge drop off after that.   Infield dee is a wash between the 2 teams Mookie might get the edge at ss

Our bottom of the order beats any team in baseball

We can beat this team, will need a little luck - home field will be huge for us

[hanton]

Got really busy this morning so logged in late

[glory]

Work the count against the starters and get to their bullpen early. That’s going to be the Jays best shot at winning this. Obviously the offense needs to show up as well and put some runs on the board. Won’t be easy against that starting staff.

Should be an amazing environment.

[Jimcanuck]

What's the status of Berrios?

I'd rather him than Little, who would be a quaking, 150 beats a minute, verge of nervous breakdown shell of a man if called to pitch in the WS.

[Brownie19]

This resale market for tickets is insane.

[L54]

Pitching is going to have to have the best 10 days of their lives to survive the Dodgers. The offense will be fine against the rotation they’ve beat up on good pitching all year and post season (Fried, Rodon, Gilbert x2, Kirby) 

But we aren’t going to have a good time if we don’t get some gutsy performances from the rotation and pen alike 

[Laika]

Yes the path to victory would include some 8-6 style of victories but you probably can't win four games that way. Would need to sneak out one or two 4-3 kind of wins supported by clutch pitching. And luck. Get lucky! 

[hanton]

I know people that got in and tickets are sold out

Saw 500's on stubhub for $3K   LOL

[Laika]

This offense though. If you can tag George Kirby for 8 runs, and Max Fried for for 7 runs, then you can blow up basically anybody. 

[Laika]

What was the lowest get in the door price you guys saw for last night's game? Resale. 

[SeranthonySantander]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yes the path to victory would include some 8-6 style of victories but you probably can't win four games that way. Would need to sneak out one or two 4-3 kind of wins supported by clutch pitching. And luck. Get lucky! 

We got a 1 run game done and Hoffman has been good.  Him vs the dodgers last august is where alot of us gave up on him.

[Jimcanuck]

12 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

What's the status of Berrios?

I'd rather him than Little, who would be a quaking, 150 beats a minute, verge of nervous breakdown shell of a man if called to pitch in the WS.

So Berrios is not an option for the BP

[John_Havok]

6 minutes ago, hanton said:

I know people that got in and tickets are sold out

Saw 500's on stubhub for $3K   LOL

just checked, 500 level is ranging from 2500 to 4000

Behind-ish for the plate for 20k

[Brownie19]

8 minutes ago, hanton said:

I know people that got in and tickets are sold out

Saw 500's on stubhub for $3K   LOL

I watched a row of 8 tickets in the 100 level that were selling for $11K per ticket all disappear at the same time!

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

So Berrios is not an option for the BP

Seems doubtful at best.  Haven't heard much about him lately - like if he's throwing or feeling better yet.

[Laika]

Don't need Berrios anyway? Have better long and short relief coverage from Bassitt and Lauer