Blue Jays (Scherzer) vs Royals (Lorenzen): 9/19/25, 7:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Magic number is down to six!

[Laika]

must win series... 

[Laika]

Just saw this in the Toronto Sun. 

If the Jays lose tonight the Magic Number is 12 again... 

[Terminator]

Updated:

• If the Jays go 6-3, the Yankees can't catch us
• If the Jays go 5-4, the Yankees would have to go 9-0 to win the division
• If the Jays go 4-5, the Yankees need to go 8-1
• If the Jays go 3-6, the Yankees need  to go 7-2
• If the Jays go 2-7, the Yankees need  to go 6-3
• If the Jays go 1-8, the Yankees need  to go 5-4
• If the Jays go 0-9, the Yankees need  to go 4-5

[Laika]

I would love to see the Red Sox slip out of the wild card. Go Guardians! 

Trevor Rogers vs Will Warren is like a 60% tilt to Baltimore at least... 

[Masterbather]

The series sets up well for us...on paper. 

But we're one bad series away from panic land. 

I reckon we will need some help from the Orioles down the stretch. 

[mphenhef]

We've got 6 games at home to finish.  I'm not personally all that concerned with their ability to wrap up the division.

[G-Snarls]

34 minutes ago, Laika said:

I would love to see the Red Sox slip out of the wild card. Go Guardians! 

Trevor Rogers vs Will Warren is like a 60% tilt to Baltimore at least... 

Yes I would love to see Cleveland pass the Sox 

We can help with that too :)

[G-Snarls]

42 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Updated:

• If the Jays go 6-3, the Yankees can't catch us
• If the Jays go 5-4, the Yankees would have to go 9-0 to win the division
• If the Jays go 4-5, the Yankees need to go 8-1
• If the Jays go 3-6, the Yankees need  to go 7-2
• If the Jays go 2-7, the Yankees need  to go 6-3
• If the Jays go 1-8, the Yankees need  to go 5-4
• If the Jays go 0-9, the Yankees need  to go 4-5

It so much less worrisome when you read through this instead of just looking at the standings 

Thank you LOL

[G-Snarls]

I want Scherzer showing the team he clearly deserves game 3 or 4 of the ALDS 

[mphenhef]

8 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Yes I would love to see Cleveland pass the Sox 

We can help with that too :)

I at first though I wouldn't want to see this as I find Cleveland is the kind of team that could give the Jays trouble and a second round matchup with boston would have Crochet not able to make two starts.  But unfortunately, the way the playoff schedule is laid out for the AL the wild card teams will be able to use their Wild card game 1 starter in both games 2 and 5 of the ALDS on normal rest.  It will all be moot if the jays stay at 1 with the winner of these two at 6 as it would be an ALCS opponent then.

[Terminator]

46 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

It so much less panic worthy when you read through this instead of looking at the standings 

Thank you LOL

Agreed lol.

Part of it is the tiebreaker. It's really a 4 game lead, not 3, and with only 9 games left the standings don't capture it as well as laying out the various scenarios.

Yankees schedule is cake but they aren't a super team. They are barely going to eclipse 90 wins this year and they blow games to bad teams all the time.

They are only 4-3 against the Orioles this year and 3-1 against the White Sox. They are highly unlikely to go 9-0 or 8-1. If they play well they could go 7-2 but they are projected to win 5 or 6. 

Al East Champs will be easy to make.

[Laika]

Blue Jays' chance to win the division per Fangraphs was 97.5% two days ago

It now sits at a mere 91% 

COLLAPSE!!!!!!!!

[Laika]

 

 

[Laika]

Detroit still plays Cleveland and Boston 3x each

Magic numbers miss those kinds of little details. Guaranteed losses among multiple chasers. 

[BatFlip]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

Blue Jays' chance to win the division per Fangraphs was 97.5% two days ago

It now sits at a mere 91% 

COLLAPSE!!!!!!!!

[BatFlip]

Who thought we'd be here in September.... scoreboard watching .... not for the third wildcard, not for the second wildcard, but for the AL East pennant.

We've been eatin good this year.

[Jays24]

2 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Who thought we'd be here in September.... scoreboard watching .... not for the third wildcard, not for the second wildcard, but for the AL East pennant.

We've been eatin good this year.

Totally unreal.  I was saying at the start of the year that this is the worst AL I can remember in my lifetime but that comment was meant for us to be competing for the wild card.  Just hoping we can have a decent playoff run to make this a memorable season.  

[Orgfiller]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Just saw this in the Toronto Sun. 

If the Jays lose tonight the Magic Number is 12 again... 

wat, since when can the magic number go up

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

We've got 6 games at home to finish.  I'm not personally all that concerned with their ability to wrap up the division.

I'd love to have your optimism

[Stangstag]

31 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Who thought we'd be here in September.... scoreboard watching .... not for the third wildcard, not for the second wildcard, but for the AL East pennant.

We've been eatin good this year.

Nobody. I don't think i single member here thought there was ever a chance to win the division back in April. Crazy stuff.

Good lesson in why you don't blow things up early if it isn't necessary. This is basically the alternate scenario to how 2017 could have gone.

[Laika]

42 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Who thought we'd be here in September.... scoreboard watching .... not for the third wildcard, not for the second wildcard, but for the AL East pennant.

We've been eatin good this year.

literally just terminator and spanky 

[Laika]

i wonder if eastcoastjaysfan is still alive 

[Governator]

Just win

[Terminator]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

literally just terminator and spanky 

[glory]

1 hour ago, BatFlip said:

Who thought we'd be here in September.... scoreboard watching .... not for the third wildcard, not for the second wildcard, but for the AL East pennant.

We've been eatin good this year.

Yeah April felt like a continuation of 2023-24, but man from May onwards this has been a fun ride. I was expecting this team to be .500, give or take. To go from that expectation to possibly finishing with the best record in the AL is nuts.

[Big_Walleye]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

 

 

I hope they don't do anything silly like celebrate if this happens.  They should save the celebration for clinching top spot in the AL.  Taking the foot off the gas is the worst thing they could do IMO.  They'll get enough rest if they earn the bye.  Maybe too much.

[glory]

11 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

I hope they don't do anything silly like celebrate if this happens.  They should save the celebration for clinching top spot in the AL.  Taking the foot off the gas is the worst thing they could do IMO.  They'll get enough rest if they earn the bye.  Maybe too much.

Kinda hope they save the drunken celebration for the division win, but it's a long season so I can understand them celebrating the playoff clincher, especially given how last season turned out. Thankfully the rosters only expand by 2 players in September, so there's no way to put out a "Gibby 2015" lineup out there for 2 straight games. Gibby would have put a bunch of us into the lineup if he could after they clinched in 2015. 

[Big_Walleye]

I'm just worried about out a letdown (and hangover) after a celebration.  If they celebrate a playoff clinch will they celebrate again for an AL East clinch?  Or AL top spot clinch?  Or both?

They're so much better at home than the road that top spot in the AL needs to be the goal.  Home ice advantage through the ALCS and even the WS if Milwaukee or Philly don't get there. 

[Governator]

19 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

I'm just worried about out a letdown (and hangover) after a celebration.  If they celebrate a playoff clinch will they celebrate again for an AL East clinch?  Or AL top spot clinch?  Or both?

They're so much better at home than the road that top spot in the AL needs to be the goal.  Home ice advantage through the ALCS and even the WS if Milwaukee or Philly don't get there. 

 

Definitely need that home ice advantage