2025 Trade Deadline

[glory]

Since May 1, the Jays have a MLB leading team wRC+ of 124. The 2nd best team over that span is at 111. 

“Low hanging fruit” was laughed at, but Boss Atkins found a way to mix the best contact rate in the league with actual damage at the same time.

[John_Havok]

58 minutes ago, Laika said:

Toronto is hitting .270 as a team 

Super elite in this era. 

Next best team is .258. The league hits .246. 

What's also pleasant to see is the OBP is highest in MLB at .340 (next is .330 - Brewers) and SLG they are 7th at .428. No empty batting avridge here. 

[BB17]

Wonder what it was before the Rockies series. Obviously Jays deserve a ton of credit since you actually have to perform but that Rockies series was maybe some of the worst pitching I’ve seen in my life. Centre cut pitches one after the other.

There was definitely some stat padding in that series. The Jays weren’t as bad as that Orioles and KC series indicated nor as good as that Rockies series would indicate. The next 9 games should give us a better sense of where this team actually is. Having Kirk back is huge though, I’d say he’s the most important player on the team.

[Brownie19]

41 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Wonder what it was before the Rockies series. Obviously Jays deserve a ton of credit since you actually have to perform but that Rockies series was maybe some of the worst pitching I’ve seen in my life. Centre cut pitches one after the other.

Every team gets to face the Rockies this year, so there's no real reason to feel that skews the Jays stats (although yes, some AL teams may not have faced them yet).

[glory]

The Yankees were +22 after the first 3 games of the season (surprisingly against the Brewers). Run differential has value but I think people can go overboard with it. There are a lot of ebbs and flows during a long season. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

Wonder what it was before the Rockies series. Obviously Jays deserve a ton of credit since you actually have to perform but that Rockies series was maybe some of the worst pitching I’ve seen in my life. Centre cut pitches one after the other.

There was definitely some stat padding in that series. The Jays weren’t as bad as that Orioles and KC series indicated nor as good as that Rockies series would indicate. The next 9 games should give us a better sense of where this team actually is. Having Kirk back is huge though, I’d say he’s the most important player on the team.

The Blue Jays were still MLB's highest scoring team since May 1 even before the Rockies series. Vlad and Bo are finally both on heaters and with Varsho infusing a ton of power into the lineup the offensive explosion became possible.

[John_Havok]

16 minutes ago, glory said:

The Yankees were +22 after the first 3 games of the season (surprisingly against the Brewers). Run differential has value but I think people can go overboard with it. There are a lot of ebbs and flows during a long season. 

Yeah run diff is really only usefull over long periods of time. It's not something that matters in small samples. 

Virtually every team's record in MLB is within 5 games either way of their expected W/L based on run diff, and the majority are within 1-3 games which is completely expected.

Very few are exactly matching (Milwaukee, Colorado, Philly, Minnesota, and Detroit)

The biggest variances are Tampa (-6 wins vs expected), White Sox (-7), Rangers (-6), and the Braves (-6), 

[Laika]

run differential matters more the more games have been played, obviously 

most teams have some outlier series within a long season and it all evens out 

basically, ignore run differential unless you just played the Rockies at Coors in August then it matters again. this has been my Ted talk

 

[Vancouverite]

5 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

It didn't.  We're now at a team wRC+ of 114, tied for 2nd in baseball, just one tick behind the Yankees.  We are 5th in baseball in runs scored and #1 in all of MLB in positional player WAR.  On the offensive side of the ball, we are elite.

it's fascinating considering no Blue Jay has more than 18 HR's and we're into August.

Shatkins is trying to be a trend setter. 

Most similar team offensive profile would be of those of Tampa Bay's run of 2015-2022'ish. 

[Laika]

14 minutes ago, Vancouverite said:

it's fascinating considering no Blue Jay has more than 18 HR's and we're into August.

Shatkins is trying to be a trend setter. 

Most similar team offensive profile would be of those of Tampa Bay's run of 2015-2022'ish. 

Those Rays teams always strikeout a lot more though. 

As a total package, more like some of the Astros teams from 2016 to present. 

[BB17]

3 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Every team gets to face the Rockies this year, so there's no real reason to feel that skews the Jays stats (although yes, some AL teams may not have faced them yet).

Facing them at Coors in August versus at home in April does make somewhat of a difference. Especially that 8 run inning 9th inning yesterday with Nola serving 40MPH down the middle.

Like I said the next 9 games should give us a decent indication of where this team is at. Everything feels great since they came off a sweep just like things felt bleak after that disaster against Orioles. The saying goes you never are as good as you think nor as bad as you think.

[John_Havok]

2 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Facing them at Coors in August versus at home in April does make somewhat of a difference. Especially that 8 run inning 9th inning yesterday with Nola serving 40MPH down the middle.

Like I said the next 9 games should give us a decent indication of where this team is at. Everything feels great since they came off a sweep just like things felt bleak after that disaster against Orioles. The saying goes you never are as good as you think nor as bad as you think.

There's never a single series that makes any difference to what the team is, or isn't. Even a 10-game stretch can have a shitload of random noise. 

I think the Jays are exactly what their offense and defense says they are. It's actually kind of weird... usually a team will preach pitch and defense or be heavy on the HRs to outscore their opponents. The Jays are more of a defense/extra-base hits/get-on-base team. 

[Brownie19]

18 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Facing them at Coors in August versus at home in April does make somewhat of a difference. Especially that 8 run inning 9th inning yesterday with Nola serving 40MPH down the middle.

Like I said the next 9 games should give us a decent indication of where this team is at. Everything feels great since they came off a sweep just like things felt bleak after that disaster against Orioles. The saying goes you never are as good as you think nor as bad as you think.

You're reading into it too much.  What's next?  excluding stats because the wind was blowing out that day?

[L54]

BB is right 

Seeing the Rockies at home in August when it’s 30 degrees is a lot different than in May when it’s 18 

After the trade deadline 

obviously it doesn’t matter but to act like it has no effect is silly 

[Laika]

wait, does the weather have a disproportionate effect on runs in Colorado? 

the ball flies a bit more when it heats up, everywhere 

[L54]

Just because it’s hot in Denver doesn’t mean it’s hot in Cleveland 

So while the ball carries more everywhere when it’s hot, heat isn’t distributed evenly 

 

[John_Havok]

8 minutes ago, Laika said:

wait, does the weather have a disproportionate effect on runs in Colorado? 

the ball flies a bit more when it heats up, everywhere 

Disproportionate is probably the wrong word but it's definitely an added effect since hotter air becomes less dense and the air there at altitude is already less dense due to the lower barometric pressure.  

 

[John_Havok]

31 minutes ago, L54 said:

Just because it’s hot in Denver doesn’t mean it’s hot in Cleveland 

So while the ball carries more everywhere when it’s hot, heat isn’t distributed evenly 

 

Right, humidity and barometric pressure are also factors. 

Like, even when it's hot in a coastal city, the effect of the heat would be somewhat blunted by the humidity and elevation (or lack thereof). 

Arizona is dry, so heat compounds the already existing extra travel due to the lack of humidity, but overall it's elevation isn't that big a deal, only 300~ feet above sea level. 

Colorado would have compounding factors of elevation, lack of humidity and more heat in the late stages of summer. 

 

Edit*** correct lack of humidity to barometirc pressure. I R stoopid. 

[Laika]

When humidity goes up air density goes DOWN. 

It's counter-intuitive but true. Humid air is less dense. Something to do with water molecules being lighter. 

People think of certain humid areas with tough stadiums like SFG but most of that is wind and temperate, not humidity effects. 

However, humidity might have other effects like on ball density and s***. 

[John_Havok]

13 minutes ago, Laika said:

When humidity goes up air density goes DOWN. 

It's counter-intuitive but true. Humid air is less dense. Something to do with water molecules being lighter. 

People think of certain humid areas with tough stadiums like SFG but most of that is wind and temperate, not humidity effects. 

However, humidity might have other effects like on ball density and s***. 

well s***, ya learn something new everyday. It's very counterintuitive that humid air is less dense... that's weird!

 

Spent some time digging into this... turns out the main 3 factors are wind, barometric pressure, and altitude when it comes to baseball travel distances. 

Colorado gets f***ed by 1 of those all the time, 2 of those 3 in summer, and not really sure about the wind factor up there. Man if the wind was blowing out in Coors Field hard in late summer, you could probably hit a ball that clears the stadium and lands in Nebraska. 

[Jonn]

4 hours ago, glory said:

The Yankees were +22 after the first 3 games of the season (surprisingly against the Brewers). Run differential has value but I think people can go overboard with it. There are a lot of ebbs and flows during a long season. 

Run differential has way to many outliers to be looked at as a pure metric. However run scored is generally reliable metric to judge team success.

[BB17]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

There's never a single series that makes any difference to what the team is, or isn't. Even a 10-game stretch can have a shitload of random noise. 

I think the Jays are exactly what their offense and defense says they are. It's actually kind of weird... usually a team will preach pitch and defense or be heavy on the HRs to outscore their opponents. The Jays are more of a defense/extra-base hits/get-on-base team. 

Yeah I agree with that I just meant everyone loves to say how great the team is after a 3 game winning streak but on the flip side s*** on them after a bad stretch when the reality is the team is never as good as you think after a hot stretch and as bas as you think when things aren't going well.

Its funny because as a team the Jays defense has actually regressed a bit, yet the offence has been on fire. OAA has the Jays as a team at 11th in MLB and+6 overall. DRS they are 10th. Straw/Varsho/Kirk/Clement are elite but Barger in the OF, Bo and Springer are comfortably below average/poor. 

I think the Jays can do a pretty good job to maximize performance with platoons and bringing in guys for defense late in the game though so I'm not too worried about the defense. Giminez coming back will help a lot too.

[John_Havok]

25 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Yeah I agree with that I just meant everyone loves to say how great the team is after a 3 game winning streak but on the flip side s*** on them after a bad stretch when the reality is the team is never as good as you think after a hot stretch and as bas as you think when things aren't going well.

Its funny because as a team the Jays defense has actually regressed a bit, yet the offence has been on fire. OAA has the Jays as a team at 11th in MLB and+6 overall. DRS they are 10th. Straw/Varsho/Kirk/Clement are elite but Barger in the OF, Bo and Springer are comfortably below average/poor. 

I think the Jays can do a pretty good job to maximize performance with platoons and bringing in guys for defense late in the game though so I'm not too worried about the defense. Giminez coming back will help a lot too.

Yeah, realistically they're in a good place. top 10-ish D with a clear top 5, or top 2-ish offense depending on the metric people look at and that's about as solid as it gets to work from. 

SP could use a boost down the stretch, but I think the pen is in a pretty great place. 

[Spanky__99]

13 hours ago, Laika said:

Toronto is hitting .270 as a team 

Super elite in this era. 

Next best team is .258. The league hits .246. 

Fluke... 😜

[Spanky__99]

Just a little fyi fellas, the Jays are #1 in Statcast defense FRV. 

[Terminator]

13 hours ago, Laika said:

Toronto is hitting .270 as a team 

Super elite in this era. 

Next best team is .258. The league hits .246. 

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times...this team is going to slap hit its way to the pennant and everyone is going to learn to love it

[Spanky__99]

36 minutes ago, Terminator said:

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times...this team is going to slap hit its way to the pennant and everyone is going to learn to love it

Haha... that's a Flair comment... *If you don't like it, learn to love it baby!*

[Terminator]

17 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Haha... that's a Flair comment... *If you don't like it, learn to love it baby!*

Me after Vlad slap hits a 110 mph chopper through the infield for a 2-out RBI this October

[Nexii]

8 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Just a little fyi fellas, the Jays are #1 in Statcast defense FRV. 

It's crazy we're now #1 in offense (tied with NY really in wRC/wOBA), and #1 in defense (easily).

If our pitching wasn't so mediocre we could be 5 games up on every other team, 105 game pace or something like that

[Brownie19]

9 hours ago, Terminator said:

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times...this team is going to slap hit its way to the pennant and everyone is going to learn to love it

You're starting to hear this on the talk radio shows more and more. Talking about how the Jays are proving you can have tons of success with guys who put the ball in play.  Guys who don't just swing for the fences and such. Of course they did mention the Jays do have some pop in their bats too, which is why it works.  As someone mentioned yesterday, it's similar to the recent Astros teams - and of course people think of the 2015 Royals.  In reality, we're somewhere in between those 2 as we don't have the same ISO/pop that Houston had, but we have more than KC did.

What I find ironic is that for the past 2-3 years, almost everyone has complained about Donny Baseball and his use the whole field message/mentality.  He was blamed for ruining our offense and the FO took all this flack for targeting contact over power in the draft and in free agency. People suggested power wins in the playoffs (maybe it does?) and that slapping the ball around and putting it in play is trash and outdated and that it was ruining the franchise.

What's interesting is we've been Top 5 in MLB in K% during every year since 2021.  We've made about a 3% improvement in K% this year and jumped to #1 of course, but this strategy seems to have been in place for years now.  Everyone complained we didn't have enough pop in the lineup, yet our team ISO was higher in 2022 and 2023 than it is this year and it's only 0.01 higher this year than last year.  Despite the coaching changes and addition of Popkins - the approach/results seems quite similar to years past.  Perhaps the biggest difference is the # of different players contributing/producing?

It is amazing to see how results change opinions so fast.  I've heard people within the baseball industry suggesting the Jays are proof that players do still have the ability to cut down their swing and put the ball in play more - avoiding strikeouts.  I think in general, there is a lot of worry throughout baseball that K's are getting way too high and it's hurting the game.  They want to see more action, which is felt to be better from a fans perspective and better long term.  MLB is a copycat league. If (when!) the Jays win the WS this year, it will be interesting to see if other teams change their philosophies.