2025 Trade Deadline

[DonJays]

2 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Roden isn't a slap hitter. 
 

i'm fine with investing in the bullpen, i think they overpaid in this instance because i don't believe 5 years of control is actually relevant for most relievers. Especially ones with half a season of track record. 

Treating reliever control as the same as starter and position player control is stupid, its a mistake. 

Another brilliant post 

[jmomcc]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

Zach Pop is a legitimately terrible comparison player for Varland and isn't someone you should be bringing up to outline why attaining Varland is so bad. 

 

He had great stuff, lots of control and he cost more than is typical for relievers who don't strike guys out at the deadline. Its not a perfect comparison because he cost less but the arguments sound the same to me.

Varland's big saving grace is that he might start. But he also cost a good bit more. 

[mphenhef]

11 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

The Yankees rotation is hanging on by a thread.  Rodon is an older dude....often older dudes fade towards the end of the season.  They have no depth.  If Rodon or Fried went down, they'd be finished.

The Jays whole rotation is older dudes...what does that say for them?

[mphenhef]

6 hours ago, max silver said:

I believe you are dramatically overreacting here. Varland offers the rare pen combination of elite stuff and command and presents a ton of upside. He's already produced a full win above replacement with 1/3 of the season left to go and has a shot to be the team's best reliever for the next 5 seasons. I see elite closer potential in this guy, and if he doesn't reach that level he's likely a fine setup man moving forward. For what it's worth baseball trade values lists this trade as a tiny overpay in favor of the Twins with Varland being the most valuable piece involved. This is Varland's first year pitching primarily out of the pen and outside of potential injury I see no reason to expect him to suddenly turn into a pumpkin. Rojas and Roden have proven literally nothing in MLB and neither of them are the sort of sure fire studs that you seem to be suggesting. 

Do you know who else had the potential to be the Jays best reliever over his controllable period?  Eric Swanson .  Relievers are very volatile.

[mphenhef]

4 hours ago, Masterbather said:

7th? Depends, his performance will dictate where he is in the pecking order. Obviously I don't want him in the rotation unless he's better than the other guys. He has the talent to be better than just about everyone in our rotation. We just don't know if it'll be a Jekyll or Hyde version of Manoah because he has been both in his career.

I remember having these conversation's about Stroman in 2015. Exact same type of conversations, people wrote him off too then he ended up being the number two pitcher in the postseason behind Price.

Aren't we basically asking Bieber to do the same thing? We're asking Bieber to immediately return to form after a major surgery. He's basically on the exact same timeline as Manoah. 

Bieber's surgery was months before Manoah's and he has already had one setback.  I'm sure people are also considering that Bieber was dominant before he went down while Manoah was meh

[Stangstag]

52 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Bieber's surgery was months before Manoah's and he has already had one setback.  I'm sure people are also considering that Bieber was dominant before he went down while Manoah was meh

Bieber was dominant for like 2 starts… ok. But before his injury in 2023 the season stats were just ok. Solidly #2/3 starter territory.

I do not expect him to pitch like an ace for us, mid-rotation stats with flashes of brilliance (like Gausman) would be great

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

The Jays whole rotation is older dudes...what does that say for them?

That they should run a 6 man rotation now that they have Bieber

[Spanky__99]

17 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Haha youre the one who randomly cried about my post and im the one who had a nerve struck?  The world is too scary for you if comments like mine bother you.  

And lol @ thinking you nuked anything when I had a bunch of folks agreeing with my comments.  Just stick to your group chats of where everyone thinks just like you lol. 

You're a bird, everyone with a brain knows this, friendo. 

 

[sliderguy35]

feels like the varland debate has gotten more philosophical (the idea of giving up assets for a reliever with control) rather than about the actual assets that we got / gave up. 

varland is different from any of the other reliever examples people are providing because he has legitimately ELITE velocity. the relationship between velocity & performance isn't linear, averaging 98 makes a real difference from averaging 95 or 96.

• Hitters vs 98+ MPH fastballs in 2025: .291 xwOBA / .342 xSLG
• Hitters vs 95-97 MPH fastballs in 2025: .343 xwOBA / .439 xSLG

it just gives him a much higher performance floor than any of the other comps that people are making. 

roden is fine. he's a good defender who makes a lot of contact & average swing decisions, but i'm not going to lose sleep over trading a guy with a 5.2% barrel rate in over 300 batted balls at AAA. it feels like the only way for him to be an impact big leaguer would be if he starts pulling the hell out of the ball in the air, but that feels like a longshot for someone who's got a 45+% groundball rate in AAA. 

rojas might pitch for the twins next year, & be pretty good, but he also might get stuck at AAA for another 2 seasons. it's just so hard to project on a guy with average big-league stuff that they've pushed through the system, that's still never thrown more than 100 innings in a season in his minor league career. 

tidy work by atkins. i also really like that we're not throwing additional lower ranked guys in to make these 1-for-3 or 1-for-4 deals just to give up a slightly lower ranked prospect. those are the kinds of trades that look great now, but then 4 years from now you look up and one of the throw-ins from that deal figured something out and is awesome (cough cough the doval & bednar deals)

[Spanky__99]

17 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Would Dennis Santana be a consolation prize?

He would've been Brownie. I guess Varland can be that guy.

[Brownie19]

13 hours ago, BTS said:

Hasn't been the case this year. I'd rather have Varland. 

Doval was balls last year too.  I think people are caught up in "names".  Dominguez & Varland >> Doval & Bird.  It might be better than Doval & Bednar (even if Bednar is the best of those 4).

 

[Jays24]

26 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

You're a bird, everyone with a brain knows this, friendo. 

 

Its literally the same group of guys who think they run this board, I have no issues with anyone else :) 

[Jays24]

8 hours ago, max silver said:

That's just adorable that you are referring to other Blue Jays fans as casuals. 

Damn, even when im happy and being positive, I get picked on by the nerds haha. 

[L54]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

Damn, even when im happy and being positive, I get picked on by the nerds haha. 

Max is the arbiter of casual fandom 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

Do you know who else had the potential to be the Jays best reliever over his controllable period?  Eric Swanson .  Relievers are very volatile.

Remember when we traded Liam Hendriks when he had all that control and he went on to shove for the A's?   

Sometimes it can be massive for teams.  Nothing is guaranteed, but Garland is a really good RPer who will help us today and hopefully well into the future.

[Brownie19]

7 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Also, there is absolutely no way he is an elite closer striking out 8.6 per 9.

Do you think Clase is elite?   I generally agree that you'd like to see a high K rate, but with a GB% > 50%, there are several elite RPers with K/9 just blow 9.

[Laika]

People being a bit dumb on the control thing. 

Control is less important over relief pitchers but it still matters. It's still part of the equation! 

Jays apparently have 2025 and then five more seasons from Varland. What if he's a quality reliever that whole time? That could happen. It's part of the possibilities. Part of the equation. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Damn, even when im happy and being positive, I get picked on by the nerds haha. 

Im just so happy we get to see another 2+ months of your daily complaining

"wHicH HoFFmAn WilL wE geT tOdAY???"

[max silver]

4 hours ago, jmomcc said:

He had great stuff, lots of control and he cost more than is typical for relievers who don't strike guys out at the deadline. Its not a perfect comparison because he cost less but the arguments sound the same to me.

Varland's big saving grace is that he might start. But he also cost a good bit more. 

Pop wasn't able to generate the same type of strikeout numbers as Varland has in his first season as a reliever, and you seem to be forgetting that he was only part of the Blue Jays return in that trade as Anthony Bass was also acquired and was in the midst of an excellent season at the time of trade. 

[max silver]

3 hours ago, mphenhef said:

Do you know who else had the potential to be the Jays best reliever over his controllable period?  Eric Swanson .  Relievers are very volatile.

Swanson was effectively ruined by a series of forearm issues. It's certainly possible that something similar could happen to Varland, but Varland presently features much better stuff than Swanson ever did and as such can better afford a bit of a reduction to his stuff due to injury. 

[Spanky__99]

16 hours ago, jaysthebest said:

What are we doing??? Do something Ross!!

Bieber, Dominguez and Varland...........suxxxxxxx Amirite. 

[Angrioter]

11 hours ago, Terminator said:

That first Shane Bieber start is going to be so much fun 

Like Josh Johnson? 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Its literally the same group of guys who think they run this board, I have no issues with anyone else :) 

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Its literally the same group of guys who think they run this board, I have no issues with anyone else :) 

When you're not frantically doom posting (90% of the time) or defaulting to juvenile "sloppy blowjob" jokes about Ross Atkins (9.99% of the time), you're actually pretty solid!

[Spanky__99]

10 hours ago, jmomcc said:

If they were sure fire studs, this would be an insane overpay. Why would you trade surefire studs?

I think its just a normal overpay. I don't know if Varland will suddenly turn into a pumpkin but i do know that it is pretty common for relievers to turn into pumpkins and its really hard to tell before hand if they will or not. The range of outcomes is pretty massive. 

Also, there is absolutely no way he is an elite closer striking out 8.6 per 9. We could tweak him but its always hard to see that happening when the twins are already so good at that. 
 

We did this before. We paid a high price for zach pop because he had control. That control was not relevant in the end. Yes, Groshans was a bust, but we could have traded him for something else. Pop also had great stuff. 

edit: also we could have got more swing and miss this year for a smaller price. I feel like we prioritized control over immediate this year impact. I would much have preferred two nasty rental than one controlled for a long time when who knows with relievers. 

Flags Fly Forever!

[Terminator]

10 hours ago, Masterbather said:

So with everything that happened, and a deadline that I personally am satisfied with...

I still think we need Manoah to return to a starting caliber postseason pitcher this year.

I know it still might be a long shot but I'm holding out hope. His presence could really lengthen that playoff rotation and allow us to go nose to nose with the best rotations out there. Unless he sucks of course. Fingers crossed.

We need Bieber to deliver and one other guy to also step up so I get your sentiment. But I don't think Manoah has any chance in fulfilling that role. He was fringe as it was and now he's coming off TJS. He might be cooked.

I think Gausman is probably our best bet followed by the rest.

• Bassitt could do it for a game but it's hard to see him stringing together dominant playoff starts.
• Scherzer looked sharp his last outing. Could he turn back the clock?
• Berrios is an SP4 in the playoffs at this point, and a mediocre one at that.
• Lauer could be a 3 inning guy?

Manoah probably doesn't even make the playoff roster.

[metafour]

10 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Roden isn't a slap hitter. 

He's not? Please describe what you think he is then.

He is 26 years old and his power has regressed this year. Just a .102 ISO in the MLB, and .165 in AAA (down from .196 last season). He had a comically poor 1.3% barrel rate in his MLB sample, and even in AAA it is only at 6.6%. He doesn't have the raw max EV's to get away with low barrel rates.

They've had him for a long time, and it's been a constant battle of trying to get him to somehow elevate the ball more. He hits a lot of groundballs, and his hitting profile didn't work at all against MLB pitching. Maybe the Twins can unlock something with him, but the Jays typically didn't miss on evaluations like this. He has a low impact hitting profile as he currently is.

[max silver]

31 minutes ago, Terminator said:

When you're not frantically doom posting (90% of the time) or defaulting to juvenile "sloppy blowjob" jokes about Ross Atkins (9.99% of the time), you're actually pretty solid!

[Spanky__99]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

We need Bieber to deliver and one other guy to also step up so I get your sentiment. But I don't think Manoah has any chance in fulfilling that role. He was fringe as it was and now he's coming off TJS. He might be cooked.

I think Gausman is probably our best bet followed by the rest.

• Bassitt could do it for a game but it's hard to see him stringing together dominant playoff starts.
• Scherzer looked sharp his last outing. Could he turn back the clock?
• Berrios is an SP4 in the playoffs at this point. 
• Lauer could be a 3 inning guy?

Manoah probably doesn't even make the playoff roster.

Manoah's a Sept. multi inning guy at best, unless our team implodes.

[Laika]

Roden was so disappointing in his MLB sample. It wasn't really the lack of power - it's fine for a young player to not have their power swing show up in MLB in their first go - it was the swing decisions. He had some very poor showings. Many plate appearances where MLB pitchers just completely dissected him.