Blue Jays (Lauer) vs Cardinals (Liberatore): 6/11/25, 2:15pm

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Good thing the Blue Jays didn't blow up the team like you wanted as this has the makings of a very solid team despite not being at full strength at any point of the season so far.

I am cautiously optimistic about the team but we still have to acknowledge the overall run differential is still a problem. If we were looking at the wildcard standings and seeing WC1 with a +4 run differential and that team wasn't the Jays, and WC 2 and 3 both had better run diffs, we'd likely conclude that WC1 team is due for regression and isnt as good as their record indicates. 

At the same time, Ws on the board already cant be taken away so ...what can we expect going forward? There's still glaring needs on this team to solidify it for the upcoming second half.

Needs: top 1 or 2 SP

solidify the pen (every potential playoff team needs this tbh) 

1 basher, preferably 2 - Santander can hopefully be one when he comes back but...even with Springer turning back the clock, and if we assume Vlad goes on a heater, we're still looking at a lineup woth only 3 legit 25+ HR threats in Vlad, Santander and Springer. Im not quite ready to slap Barger in that category yet as historically guys like him will.go through a period of needing to find that adjustment where the power dips. I think he will weather it better than most...but still... I'd really like 5 guys in the lineup as legit 25+ HR threats. We aren't sure what Varsho is going to give when he comes back but he's another possibility. 

So right now its Springer ... maybe Vlad, maybe Santander, maybe Barger and maybe Varsho. I'd like a little more certainty in the power dept. 

[Masterbather]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Good thing the Blue Jays didn't blow up the team like you wanted as this has the makings of a very solid team despite not being at full strength at any point of the season so far.

I still think it would have been better off in the long-term by blowing it up, but if you had told me that Kirk would return to an all star hitter and Springer would come back from the dead at 35 and our bullpen which most people thought would be mid would have this kind of ceiling and Barger would fall from the sky...sure. I don't know if you were predicting all that but if you did, good on you. Dunk away.

If I knew all those Domino's fall, I would say they have a chance to get out of the AL, everyone knew that the American League was more wide open this year than most years, I had mentioned this myself, that I don't remember the last time the American League was this wide open with so many teams expected to compete for a playoff spot. 12 of 15 teams are no more than 4 games out right now. But, again, if you feel the need to dunk, dunk away. Either way we still need an ace.

[Masterbather]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Gausman's performances in recent weeks suggest he may have rediscovered his ace form, but the team will absolutely need another top of the rotation arm to join him even if Gausman continues to shove.

I wouldn't say he's back to what he was, he's not striking out guys the way he used to, I think he's a notch below what he used to be, not really a whole lot different than he was last year, a little better.

[max silver]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

I am cautiously optimistic about the team but we still have to acknowledge the overall run differential is still a problem. If we were looking at the wildcard standings and seeing WC1 with a +4 run differential and that team wasn't the Jays, and WC 2 and 3 both had better run diffs, we'd likely conclude that WC1 team is due for regression and isnt as good as their record indicates. 

At the same time, Ws on the board already cant be taken away so ...what can we expect going forward? There's still glaring needs on this team to solidify it for the upcoming second half.

Needs: top 1 or 2 SP

solidify the pen (every potential playoff team needs this tbh) 

1 basher, preferably 2 - Santander can hopefully be one when he comes back but...even with Springer turning back the clock, and if we assume Vlad goes on a heater, we're still looking at a lineup woth only 3 legit 25+ HR threats in Vlad, Santander and Springer. Im not quite ready to slap Barger in that category yet as historically guys like him will.go through a period of needing to find that adjustment where the power dips. I think he will weather it better than most...but still... I'd really like 5 guys in the lineup as legit 25+ HR threats. We aren't sure what Varsho is going to give when he comes back but he's another possibility. 

So right now its Springer ... maybe Vlad, maybe Santander, maybe Barger and maybe Varsho. I'd like a little more certainty in the power dept. 

I have zero inclination to believe that the +4 run differential is in any way indicative of the quality of this team. It's entirely a function of the awful stretch of games where the entire team slumped simultaneously, and as the calendar turned to May the offense largely found it's footing. The team is in the midst of an excellent 32 game stretch where they've played to a +43 run differential and a 22-10 record. None of this feels like a fluke to me either. If the team doesn't eventually find a way to bolster the rotation this could easily lead to the pen being largely burnt out however.

More power would be nice for sure, but if you simply lower the home run threshold to 20 you can easily include Bo and Varsho in the mix.

I don't see a need for more pen additions as there are soon to be more good quality arms than available spots once Garcia and Sandlin remove. This can change in a hurry if any of the important pen arms hit the injured list however.

[Terminator]

I don't think a +4 run differential is a problem. It probably only takes an 85 win team to make a WC and a +4 RD puts one on that pace.

But further to that, the RD is trending the right way. A lot of this is guys busting out of their slumps and a lot of it is just finding the right 26 guys for the roster. 

Wagner, Roden, Barnes, and Lovelady were replaced by Barger, Varsho (for a while anyway), Fisher, Fluharty, etc.

Also, I think we've got good depth on the player position side as well as in the bullpen. As other teams deal with injuries throughout the season they will stumble but the Jays should remain pretty strong so long as we don't get any more injuries to the rotation.

[Spanky__99]

We like our team, Barry! 😎 

 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I have zero inclination to believe that the +4 run differential is in any way indicative of the quality of this team. It's entirely a function of the awful stretch of games where the entire team slumped simultaneously, and as the calendar turned to May the offense largely found it's footing. The team is in the midst of an excellent 32 game stretch where they've played to a +43 run differential and a 22-10 record. None of this feels like a fluke to me either. If the team doesn't eventually find a way to bolster the rotation this could easily lead to the pen being largely burnt out however.

More power would be nice for sure, but if you simply lower the home run threshold to 20 you can easily include Bo and Varsho in the mix.

I don't see a need for more pen additions as there are soon to be more good quality arms than available spots once Garcia and Sandlin remove. This can change in a hurry if any of the important pen arms hit the injured list however.

Just as a counter point. A stretching games with a  +42 run diff you also wouldn't expect a team to be 10 games over 500 during that stretch, more like anywhere from 3-5 would be the bulk of the bell curve.

Im not trying to be a Debbie downer but Im sure I could go back and find tons of posts about teams way overperforming their run diff and largely due to it being 1 run games they are winning (the Jays being quite good this year in 1 run games) and many posters (myself included) would be finding ways to explain why that record shouldn't hold up amd why that team shouldn't be buying at the deadline.

Its just harder to do that when its our own team thats benefitting from those types of unpredictable swings in winning 1 run games. 

Just food for thought really. Im happy as hell the Jays are where they are and that the plan seems to be working out thus far, but I thinknits fair to say the Jays are walking a very thin line that appears to be leaning in the direction of fortunate overperformance. 

[Stangstag]

On 6/12/2025 at 12:06 PM, Brownie19 said:

It was, but I think that criticism is unfair.  The A's have a really fun, young core of hitters (Wilson, Butler, Rooker, Kutz, Soderstrom, Langerliers, etc.).  Their pitching isn't nearly as good, but they did spend a bit this year, adding Severino and Leclerc (who's been awful) and of course they have Mason Miller, who's unreal.

He was just taking a stab at picking a "wildcard" team to slip into the WC3 spot. He's not a moron for doing so.

 

Jacob Wilson might be the most fascinating player in baseball right now.  I want him starting the all-star game at SS.

Oakland is not even close to being a playoff team. Being fooled by their hot start after 20 games is moronic IMO.

Of course they have some good players but they aren’t really close to other teams in the division and the AL

[Orgfiller]

13 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Oakland is not even close to being a playoff team. Being fooled by their hot start after 20 games is moronic IMO.

Of course they have some good players but they aren’t really close to other teams in the division and the AL

Their bats are legitimately excellent though, they're currently the 7th best offense in the league. However, they combine this with horrific defense (3rd worst) which makes their position player group as a whole only a mediocre 14th best in WAR.

The pitching staff is genuinely horrific though, I think people expected a bit more out of it since they spent money on acquiring Severino and Springs, with some mediocre incumbents like Mitch Spence and JP Sears and one of the better relief arms in the game in Mason Miller, but the wheels have totally fallen off on them. Severino has been fine, but everyone else has been a disappointment across the board.

[Brownie19]

19 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Oakland is not even close to being a playoff team. Being fooled by their hot start after 20 games is moronic IMO.

Of course they have some good players but they aren’t really close to other teams in the division and the AL

I'm pretty sure it was just a fun "sleeper" team to pick man.  This is "almost" like ripping people for their bold predictions being incorrect.

[mphenhef]

15 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Just as a counter point. A stretching games with a  +42 run diff you also wouldn't expect a team to be 10 games over 500 during that stretch, more like anywhere from 3-5 would be the bulk of the bell curve.

Im not trying to be a Debbie downer but Im sure I could go back and find tons of posts about teams way overperforming their run diff and largely due to it being 1 run games they are winning (the Jays being quite good this year in 1 run games) and many posters (myself included) would be finding ways to explain why that record shouldn't hold up amd why that team shouldn't be buying at the deadline.

Its just harder to do that when its our own team thats benefitting from those types of unpredictable swings in winning 1 run games. 

Just food for thought really. Im happy as hell the Jays are where they are and that the plan seems to be working out thus far, but I thinknits fair to say the Jays are walking a very thin line that appears to be leaning in the direction of fortunate overperformance. 

I would think a good bullpen and excellent defense helps to win more tight games.  The fact they strike out so little and their pen strikes out a lot of players also helps a lot in extra innings.

[max silver]

15 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Just as a counter point. A stretching games with a  +42 run diff you also wouldn't expect a team to be 10 games over 500 during that stretch, more like anywhere from 3-5 would be the bulk of the bell curve.

Im not trying to be a Debbie downer but Im sure I could go back and find tons of posts about teams way overperforming their run diff and largely due to it being 1 run games they are winning (the Jays being quite good this year in 1 run games) and many posters (myself included) would be finding ways to explain why that record shouldn't hold up amd why that team shouldn't be buying at the deadline.

Its just harder to do that when its our own team thats benefitting from those types of unpredictable swings in winning 1 run games. 

Just food for thought really. Im happy as hell the Jays are where they are and that the plan seems to be working out thus far, but I thinknits fair to say the Jays are walking a very thin line that appears to be leaning in the direction of fortunate overperformance. 

These are all fair points. I went ahead and punched the Blue Jays run differential into an online Pythagorean run differential calculator for the 22-10 streak and it spit out a .643 winning percentage. The Blue Jays actual win percentage over the aforementioned 32 games works out to .688, so the difference in expected wins over the 32 game sample only amounts to 1.5. That's a pretty small difference all things considered, and to my eyes doesn't indicate some sort of massive overperformance. 

It's true the Blue Jays have won a lot of 1 run games, with some of these occurring due to the team's ability to plate a lot of late runs against the other team's leverage relievers mixed in with some of these largely happening due to the team coughing up a bunch of late runs of their own. I am very encouraged that they have been regularly showing the ability to produce late runs against some very good relievers that has allowed some of the late game heroics to occur.

This is all happening with a team that is nowhere close to full strength, as it's running with basically 70% of a full rotation, is missing several important leverage arms, and is missing several power bats in Varso and Santander as well. I am looking forward to the team hopefully reaching full strength at some point in the weeks to come to see what it is capable of with everyone on the roster.

[glory]

Roden, Wagner, and Santander have a combined WAR of -1.2. They essentially replaced Roden and Wagner with Varsho and Barger in May, and have gone 10-2 since Tony's been on the IL. You replace really bad players (or players performing badly) with good ones, and that can help explain a difference in RD, especially when mixed with Kirk's resurgence and other internal improvement. I don't know if it's sustainable as is, mostly because 3 SP's and 2 bullpen games a week is going to heavily tax the pen and they can't get away with it for much longer, but the Jays I would imagine will be one of the more aggressive teams at the deadline, so external pieces are probably on the way. It's just a matter of how long they can keep this going until that happens. Scherzer replacing Francis is super important. I don't trust Max's health, but we just have to hope. Then add a SP at the deadline. 

Honestly, I don't know what to make of this team right now. Exceeding my expectations, and I'm enjoying the ride from May onwards. 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

Their bats are legitimately excellent though, they're currently the 7th best offense in the league. However, they combine this with horrific defense (3rd worst) which makes their position player group as a whole only a mediocre 14th best in WAR.

The pitching staff is genuinely horrific though, I think people expected a bit more out of it since they spent money on acquiring Severino and Springs, with some mediocre incumbents like Mitch Spence and JP Sears and one of the better relief arms in the game in Mason Miller, but the wheels have totally fallen off on them. Severino has been fine, but everyone else has been a disappointment across the board.

Basically the Lolrioles

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

These are all fair points. I went ahead and punched the Blue Jays run differential into an online Pythagorean run differential calculator for the 22-10 streak and it spit out a .643 winning percentage. The Blue Jays actual win percentage over the aforementioned 32 games works out to .688, so the difference in expected wins over the 32 game sample only amounts to 1.5. That's a pretty small difference all things considered, and to my eyes doesn't indicate some sort of massive overperformance. 

It's true the Blue Jays have won a lot of 1 run games, with some of these occurring due to the team's ability to plate a lot of late runs against the other team's leverage relievers mixed in with some of these largely happening due to the team coughing up a bunch of late runs of their own. I am very encouraged that they have been regularly showing the ability to produce late runs against some very good relievers that has allowed some of the late game heroics to occur.

This is all happening with a team that is nowhere close to full strength, as it's running with basically 70% of a full rotation, is missing several important leverage arms, and is missing several power bats in Varso and Santander as well. I am looking forward to the team hopefully reaching full strength at some point in the weeks to come to see what it is capable of with everyone on the roster.

Will this finally be the year where the FO goes hard at the deadline? A 2015-ish trade deadline would be massive for this group 

[Laika]

The team looks so much better right now than they did in April so I am fine to just ignore the run differential. 

Spots like Barnes, Lovelady, and Tate have been upgraded significantly. 

Bats like Roden and Wagner who were hurting the team have been replaced by guys who look like legitimate contributors. 

When Santander comes back he will probably be healthy, finally, and he won't be pressing anymore. 

I also feel better about the minor league depth to cover injuries. Macko is back, Yesavage is in AA, Manoah is throwing off a mound to hitters. There are a handful of guys doing really well at the plate in Buffalo. 

And that blossoming minor league system will help in trades. Teams might covet guys like Gage Stanifer for example. 

The playoffs will be easy to make with the waves of prospects coming.