Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Big_Walleye]

6 minutes ago, Omar said:

What better return than Alonso?

I would hope our return for our best asset in his prime is something better than an aging one dimensional player soon to be in the twilight of his career.  Or so we only plan one season into the future?

If Vladdy gets moved I would want prospects, the Jays can fill holes with their deep pockets. 

Vlad isn't one-dimensional?  He may not be aging yet but I'm betting his next contract will "age" in a big hurry.

After the other day he's more of a liability than an asset.

[John_Havok]

49 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Soto's contract wasn't even that crazy once you sit down and calculate just how good his career WAR projections are. 65 WAR or something to age 40 makes his contract out to be $12M/WAR, and much of it in the future when that will be the going price. I think it's around $8M/WAR right now.

Vlad projects to around 40 WAR, or $480M/15. He's had up and down years but all players have high variance, even the superstars. I don't buy that as a reason to pay him less. However the whole showing up to camp out of shape in 2020-21 takes him down a bit for me. Maybe something like $420-450M range 

 

480 over 15 would make sense at 32 m per year. 

Vald's already turned down 10/340 and whatever else the Jays offered after that. Vlad wants to be among the highest AAVs in the game. 

He said the Soto contract didn't affect his ask and he already had his demands in place before that. Maybe that's true, maybe it's not. Maybe it's true in that it wasn't the Soto contract that changed anything but it was Ohtani's because Vlad was 2nd to him in the MVP in 2021 and Vlad truly thinks he is a comparable player to the unicorn. I don't know this for a fact at all, just saying if 480 over 15 years was his number, the ink would already be dry on a done deal. 

[John_Havok]

3 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

Vlad isn't one-dimensional?  He may not be aging yet but I'm betting his next contract will "age" in a big hurry.

After the other day he's more of a liability than an asset.

I think he means he isnt one dimensional like Alonso in that Alonso is a pure power bat, with no hit tool, doesnt walk a lot, strikes out way more. 

Both are 1 dimensional in that their only value comes from their bats. Vlad's bat just has more dimensions to it than Alonso. 

[Jays24]

5 hours ago, Rusty_Savage said:

https://x.com/FAN590/status/1892301999246291191?t=Fo9e4rTBMx1hXRE3hyJ9dg&s=19

 

I don't know how to embed tweets but Passan emphasizes that Vladdy turned down A LOT of money. Hopefully he has a monster year and we re-sign him but either way he should be determined to have a big year

How do we take the word of the front office who were trying to say "Vlad's record would have set records" and then got clowned when he had to clarify it would have set a Blue Jays record lol.  

[RobinThicc]

Jays will have 400M ready for Kyle Tucker

[Terminator]

36 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

How do we take the word of the front office who were trying to say "Vlad's record would have set records" and then got clowned when he had to clarify it would have set a Blue Jays record lol.  

Would have set the positional record as well.

[Terminator]

This could make sense. And if Vlad has any warm feelings for this org at all, we might finally come out on top in a big FA bidding war.

[Jays24]

18 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Would have set the positional record as well.

Both are a joke in the context of the numbers being tossed around.  That's why I feel the Jays probably offered 350M or so but we'll never know until someone leaks.  

[Terminator]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-jay-of-reckoning-is-upon-us/

Fangraphs on the Vlad situation

[Rusty_Savage]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

How do we take the word of the front office who were trying to say "Vlad's record would have set records" and then got clowned when he had to clarify it would have set a Blue Jays record lol.  

I don't know man. I'm just telling you what Passan said, that he "believes Vlad turned down a lot of money. Like a lot". 

If Vlad has another pedestrian season heay regret this decision. 

 

As an aside, I'm not sure that's the burn you think it is

[Rusty_Savage]

20 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Both are a joke in the context of the numbers being tossed around.  That's why I feel the Jays probably offered 350M or so but we'll never know until someone leaks.  

Dumping on the FO on what they might have probably offered in your opinion is a weird tale. I'm not going to pass judgement on either side until the numbers are leaked but Passan is one of the most respected guys in the game and he believes Vlad turned down a dump truck full of money. Risky play, if true. 

[Bananamon]

On 2/18/2025 at 5:32 PM, Brownie19 said:

I'm just joking around with you (couldn't resist).  Welcome aboard.  This is a sabr heavy board and although most of us use a combination of stats and our eyes/experience as baseball fans to form opinions, there is one thing that nearly everyone on this board agrees with - and it's that Vlad's defense and base running are dog sh*t.

I hear you. I see the metrics and I do readily admit that his OAA and DRS are in the middle of the pack at best. 

But my take is that he is kinda fat, lazy and overly confident at times and that has affected him immensely since he won his GG. You see it when he makes a good play and shakes his finger no and points to his glove, looking like a douche in the process.

But I still see flashes of sheer brilliance in his ability to start dp's from first with a pinpoint accurate arm. I see him make those over the shoulder catches that he makes with ease, when the vast amount of guys at his position have nowhere near the ability he does in that area,

I agree that his baserunning is horse bleep, but to refer to his defense in that same regard? That's just outright laughable to me. You don't win a GG by sucking at your defensive poisition

[Terminator]

 

[Brownie19]

19 minutes ago, Bananamon said:

You don't win a GG by sucking at your defensive position

There are lots of examples of players who aren't good defensively, who have won a GG.

Rafael Paleiro is the most obvious example.  He won a GG in 1999 while playing 28 games at 1st base and 128 games at DH.

LGJ won a GG in LF recently.  It certainly happens.  Vlad isn't good defensively, even though I do agree that there are glimpses of brilliance at times. 

[Bananamon]

On 2/18/2025 at 5:45 PM, JaysfaninFL said:

I'm somewhere in the middle on Vlad's 1B defense.  I know the metrics don't love him, but I think he easily holds his own there.  From pop-ups in foul ground, turning DPs and scooping poor throws.  He may not be elite and will likely never win another GG, but I think he would be fine there defensively for another 5 years for a playoff-caliber team before needing to move to DH.

Good points. I think the problem with vlads defense is the problem with his entire game. I don't know about any of you, but I keep waiting to see the vast amount of talent that has been talked about since he was in the minors. Last year was good, but he two years before were kind blah? He shows flashes but no continued brilliance.

You see him make stretches and scoops that are consistently excellent. And his foot speed. His ability to track pop ups down the line tell me his foot speed is a non issue. Have any of you nay sayers ever tried to catch one of those over the shoulder pop ups while travelling a good distance at almost top speed while navigating the wall, other fielders, fans and everything else? Its one of the hardest balls to catch, with your back to the infield and trying to navigate your speed and spatial awareness. Ever stop to think why "the catch" by Mayes is considered THE CATCH? Not comparing the two, but the level of difficulty with that type of catch is enormous. Easy to watch it on TV....try getting on the field and do it in a game that means something

[BatFlip]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

 

Maybe I'm not in tune with "Gen Z", but I just find this sort of social media behaviour by Vladdy to be childish, moronic, and consistent with the lack of character he's show in the past (the list is long).  He's shown up to camp fat and out of shape, he's shoulder shrugged after running into outs in the playoffs, and has jogged to first base in must win games.  

Now all these posters who were condemning him to the independents last year are putting management on blast for not giving him exactly what he wants after two great years sandwiched by two infuriatingly frustrating years.  The funny thing is none of us even know what he wants!  500m?!  600m?!  But Rogers has the money!  There is such a thing as opportunity cost and risk, and quite frankly I'll take Ohtani or Soto for twice whatever money Vlad is worth, every damn day of the week.  

Let him go to free agency.  He better hope he performs this year.

 

 

[Bananamon]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

There are lots of examples of players who aren't good defensively, who have won a GG.

Rafael Paleiro is the most obvious example.  He won a GG in 1999 while playing 28 games at 1st base and 128 games at DH.

LGJ won a GG in LF recently.  It certainly happens.  Vlad isn't good defensively, even though I do agree that there are glimpses of brilliance at times. 

Agree to disagree. Vlad is an above average Mlb first baseman defensively. I can't even argue it because I find it so blatantly obvious

[Big_Walleye]

3 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Maybe I'm not in tune with "Gen Z", but I just find this sort of social media behaviour by Vladdy to be childish, moronic, and consistent with the lack of character he's show in the past (the list is long).  He's shown up to camp fat and out of shape, he's shoulder shrugged after running into outs in the playoffs, and has jogged to first base in must win games.  

Now all these posters who were condemning him to the independents last year are putting management on blast for not giving him exactly what he wants after two great years sandwiched by two infuriatingly frustrating years.  The funny thing is none of us even know what he wants!  500m?!  600m?!  But Rogers has the money!  There is such a thing as opportunity cost and risk, and quite frankly I'll take Ohtani or Soto for twice whatever money Vlad is worth, every damn day of the week.  

Let him go to free agency.  He better hope he performs this year.

 

 

Exactly!

He says he won't negotiate anymore because he wants to concentrate on the season at hand and not be a distraction to the team.  Meanwhile he's already dreaming about becoming a Yankee.

Trade him!!

[Gen.Disarray]

Now that we can be fairly certain Vladdy is going to free agency, I'll make 2 predictions. 

First, with many teams bidding on him it makes it more likely that some team gets way out over their skis and gives him a preposterous, massive, overpay of a contract. Still, I believe he will inevitably receive less total dollars than the Jays offered this time.

Second, despite his age, I believe he will receive less total dollars than Tucker gets. Assuming Tucker also goes to free agency. 

[Jays24]

7 hours ago, Rusty_Savage said:

Dumping on the FO on what they might have probably offered in your opinion is a weird tale. I'm not going to pass judgement on either side until the numbers are leaked but Passan is one of the most respected guys in the game and he believes Vlad turned down a dump truck full of money. Risky play, if true. 

I'm not passing judgment on that comment, I've already said numerous times that Vladdy hasn't shown he should be getting a blank check.  Just trade him or be ready to match any offer during free agency.   

[Jays24]

13 minutes ago, Bananamon said:

Agree to disagree. Vlad is an above average Mlb first baseman defensively. I can't even argue it because I find it so blatantly obvious

Most 1st baseman can barely move so Vladdy easily has the athleticism and arm strength advantage on them.  Now his actual fielding and ensuring his glove doesn't blow up is below average lol.  

[glory]

Vlad in a free agent year is probably worth holding onto at this point if the goal is to contend in 2025 (which it obviously is). It's the one time you can probably guarantee that he'll be motivated, and I don't think you can have that same confidence once he gets his big contract. He's someone I can absolutely see coasting for years once he has a $500M guarantee. Not sure what he's trying to accomplish by liking posts like that, assuming that was actually him and not a photoshop (never know nowadays), but I think it leads back to the motivation aspect. This guy is obviously waiting to test the open market, and the Jays will likely benefit in 2025 if he has something to play for. Just have to swallow all that nonsense like that tweet for the next 9 months, because I'm sure there will be a lot of those. 

[Stangstag]

4 hours ago, John_Havok said:

480 over 15 would make sense at 32 m per year. 

Vald's already turned down 10/340 and whatever else the Jays offered after that. Vlad wants to be among the highest AAVs in the game. 

He said the Soto contract didn't affect his ask and he already had his demands in place before that. Maybe that's true, maybe it's not. Maybe it's true in that it wasn't the Soto contract that changed anything but it was Ohtani's because Vlad was 2nd to him in the MVP in 2021 and Vlad truly thinks he is a comparable player to the unicorn. I don't know this for a fact at all, just saying if 480 over 15 years was his number, the ink would already be dry on a done deal. 

Vlad isn't even the best player at his position since he broke into the league.... there's 3 ahead of him.

Even if you set a date range of 2021-2024, he still has 3 players ahead of him in WAR at the same position.

This idea that Vlad is a "generational" talent needs to f***ing die.

[Stangstag]

And im tired of giving Vlad extra points because "he's young"

Whatever gains he might make while aging and learning are negated by the fact his body will start declining rapidly. 

[Stangstag]

3 hours ago, Terminator said:

This could make sense. And if Vlad has any warm feelings for this org at all, we might finally come out on top in a big FA bidding war.

Yes, this has been pretty clear since last offseason. Vlad needs the wakeup call that he actually isn't getting close to Soto numbers.

[Stangstag]

56 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Maybe I'm not in tune with "Gen Z", but I just find this sort of social media behaviour by Vladdy to be childish, moronic, and consistent with the lack of character he's show in the past (the list is long).  He's shown up to camp fat and out of shape, he's shoulder shrugged after running into outs in the playoffs, and has jogged to first base in must win games.  

Now all these posters who were condemning him to the independents last year are putting management on blast for not giving him exactly what he wants after two great years sandwiched by two infuriatingly frustrating years.  The funny thing is none of us even know what he wants!  500m?!  600m?!  But Rogers has the money!  There is such a thing as opportunity cost and risk, and quite frankly I'll take Ohtani or Soto for twice whatever money Vlad is worth, every damn day of the week.  

Let him go to free agency.  He better hope he performs this year.

 

 

Yeah he's a dumbass, we know this.

[Terminator]

7 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Yes, this has been pretty clear since last offseason. Vlad needs the wakeup call that he actually isn't getting close to Soto numbers.

Fangraphs' "Jay of Reckoning" Article I posted earlier ran through the various contenders to sign him and it is kind of hard to see a team outbidding us if we want him.

Quote

One thing that’s working against him is that the big spenders don’t have anywhere to put him. The four biggest payrolls in the league belong to the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, and Yankees. The Dodgers are committed to Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. The Mets could move on from Alonso in the short term, but considering that Soto will likely need to move to first base or DH eventually, they’d be locking in their easiest two defensive positions through the 2030s. The Phillies have Harper at first and I’d be surprised if they don’t extend Kyle Schwarber.

Maybe the Yankees could have Guerrero keep first base warm for two years and then move him to DH when Giancarlo Stanton’s contract expires after the 2027 season. (I bet you thought Stanton’s contract would never expire.) OK, that’s a decent fit, though the Yankees’ willingness to spend waxes and wanes year by year.

I’m not going to go down the line any further, because — believe it or not — the Blue Jays are currently running the fifth-highest payroll in the league. They’re currently lined up to hit the first competitive balance tax surcharge threshold, and a modest raise for Guerrero would probably put them over the second.

Perhaps the Yankees or a team he didn't discuss (the Rangers?) could make a massive offer. But a lot of the big spending teams just don't need a 1B. If we want him back we probably still can re-sign him by outbidding everyone (and he might not be getting the offers he wants) so long as the relationship remains intact during this final season.

[204Jays]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

 

DEPORT!

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, Bananamon said:

Agree to disagree. Vlad is an above average Mlb first baseman defensively. I can't even argue it because I find it so blatantly obvious

This reads like blatant homerism

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

There are lots of examples of players who aren't good defensively, who have won a GG.

Rafael Paleiro is the most obvious example.  He won a GG in 1999 while playing 28 games at 1st base and 128 games at DH.

LGJ won a GG in LF recently.  It certainly happens.  Vlad isn't good defensively, even though I do agree that there are glimpses of brilliance at times. 

I certainly don't watch the Diamondbacks to see Gurriel in the field, but purely based on the metrics it appears as though he's developed into a very good defender in left field during his time in Arizona.