Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Jimcanuck]

3 minutes ago, Mac said:

The worst part for me was how inevitable today's news was. I hoped but really had no confidence in this front office to get anything done.

The first thing they did to upset me is when they rushed out to sign Kendrys Morales a month after Edwin walked off the Wild Card game. These two don't know how to value their own players. The cost to this franchise if Vlad walks over to Boston will be incalculable.

Funny thing is Edwin signed for what the Jays offered and he rejected.

Baseball is a business, walking away from Vlads unreasonable demands was good business.

[xposbrad]

Really think the Jays are going to be dodging a huge bullet. I could easily see Vladdy dropping off a cliff at 31-32 and this contract being unmovable after. I don't see the Jays competing for a while anyways so carrying him while they will try to rebuild won't make sense. 

[saskjayfan]

16 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Funny thing is Edwin signed for what the Jays offered and he rejected.

Baseball is a business, walking away from Vlads unreasonable demands was good business.

The Jays offered 4 and 80.  He signed for 3 and 60.  Same AAV one less year. 

[Jays24]

Somehow this is all Straw's fault lol

[glory]

The most reliable dude on X, Hector Gomez, has a tweet up quoting David Ortiz that says: "He deserves a 13-year, $585 million contract. Vladdy Jr. is an elite offensive player, he's young and with Gold Glove-caliber defense".

Ignoring the defense part, did Ortiz pull that number out of his ass or is that what Vlad was actually asking for? If it's the latter then the Jays may not have been within $150M of that, justifiably so. 

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, glory said:

The most reliable dude on X, Hector Gomez, has a tweet up quoting David Ortiz that says: "He deserves a 13-year, $585 million contract. Vladdy Jr. is an elite offensive player, he's young and with Gold Glove-caliber defense".

Ignoring the defense part, did Ortiz pull that number out of his ass or is that what Vlad was actually asking for? If it's the latter then the Jays may not have been within $150M of that, justifiably so. 

That number sounds believable to me.  I was actually thinking Vlad's # started with a 6...

[glory]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That number sounds believable to me.  I was actually thinking Vlad's # started with a 6...

Yeah sounds believable to me too, and it's oddly specific on Ortiz's part. For CBT purposes, any extension would likely start in 2026, so if his ask really was 13/585, then it would have been on top of the 1/28 he's owed in 2025, so it would have cleared $600M in total. 

Who knows what is true or not, but if that number is anywhere close to what Vlad wants, then letting him test free agency is the best alternative aside from trading him (which it's probably too late for at this point). If any team is willing to meet that number, then tip your hat to Vlad and wish him the best. I don't think that's going to happen in reality. 

[G-Snarls]

19 minutes ago, glory said:

Yeah sounds believable to me too, and it's oddly specific on Ortiz's part. For CBT purposes, any extension would likely start in 2026, so if his ask really was 13/585, then it would have been on top of the 1/28 he's owed in 2025, so it would have cleared $600M in total. 

Who knows what is true or not, but if that number is anywhere close to what Vlad wants, then letting him test free agency is the best alternative aside from trading him (which it's probably too late for at this point). If any team is willing to meet that number, then tip your hat to Vlad and wish him the best. I don't think that's going to happen in reality. 

Agree on all counts 

I love Vladdy and I wanted him to stay. 

I'll bet though that he gets to free agency and finds his offers max out well under this 585M number 

[max silver]

15 minutes ago, glory said:

Yeah sounds believable to me too, and it's oddly specific on Ortiz's part. For CBT purposes, any extension would likely start in 2026, so if his ask really was 13/585, then it would have been on top of the 1/28 he's owed in 2025, so it would have cleared $600M in total. 

Who knows what is true or not, but if that number is anywhere close to what Vlad wants, then letting him test free agency is the best alternative aside from trading him (which it's probably too late for at this point). If any team is willing to meet that number, then tip your hat to Vlad and wish him the best. I don't think that's going to happen in reality. 

I agree that aside from trading Vlad that the only alternative at this point is to let Vlad taste free agency so that both sides can get an actual handle on what his value is to the rest of the sport. There's no sense in meeting his ridiculous asking price and negotiating against themselves as this point. If he's serious about wanting to be a Blue Jay long term they should have as much of a shot to sign him long term as anyone else.

[G-Snarls]

1 minute ago, max silver said:

I agree that aside from trading Vlad that the only alternative at this point is to let Vlad taste free agency so that both sides can get an actual handle on what his value is to the rest of the sport. There's no sense in meeting his ridiculous asking price and negotiating against themselves as this point. If he's serious about wanting to be a Blue Jay long term they should have as much of a shot to sign him long term as anyone else.

He will likely be the best free agent hitter on the market this off season. But teams have shown an unwillingness to pay big $$ for 1B bat first players lately. 

[Stangstag]

41 minutes ago, glory said:

The most reliable dude on X, Hector Gomez, has a tweet up quoting David Ortiz that says: "He deserves a 13-year, $585 million contract. Vladdy Jr. is an elite offensive player, he's young and with Gold Glove-caliber defense".

Ignoring the defense part, did Ortiz pull that number out of his ass or is that what Vlad was actually asking for? If it's the latter then the Jays may not have been within $150M of that, justifiably so. 

Absolute yikes if that’s what Vlad thinks.

Par for the course with him though, we know he has the mental capacity of a 16 year old.

[max silver]

14 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

He will likely be the best free agent hitter on the market this off season. But teams have shown an unwillingness to pay big $$ for 1B bat first players lately. 

Kyle Tucker might have something to say about this if he can come anywhere close to replicating his 2024 success at the plate over a full season.

[Hipfan]

12 minutes ago, max silver said:

Kyle Tucker might have something to say about this if he can come anywhere close to replicating his 2024 success at the plate over a full season.

I'd rather have Tucker than Vladdy; hopefully the Cubs don't re-sign him.

[Jays24]

So we're allowed to humiliate Vladdy by calling him all sorts of names but draw the line at making fun of Shatkins, good to know lol. 

I could care less if the Jays keep Vladdy or not as long as the Jays get better.  From everything we know about both sides, both Vlad and the front office can be delusional regarding his actual worth. 

One thing we know for sure is that if you already know Vlad is delusional, it is literally the job of this front office to pivot to improve the situation.  Obviously we'll see how it plays out from here but the situation doesn't look the best for the Blue Jays currently and that's all I care about.  

[Spanky99]

16 hours ago, Omar said:

After 2023 the majority on thdis board wanted Vladdy shuffled out of here.  Now like the fat girl in school who has a pretty face and returns after summer vacation 25 pounds lighter we're lining up to resign him.  That is what Vladdy's 2024 season equates to. 😜

Will the real Vladdy please stand up?

lol... thank you! Some logic, trade the guy for a haul. Or "for his worth" greedy f***, both sides are to blame in this shitshow, the FO for lack of direction/decisiveness(last trade deadline) as mentioned and Vlad thinking he's a perennial stud, haven't seen it yet, although he's coming into his prime years but... as you say, stand up this year kid. If they don't move him, we'll see if both Toronto and Vlad really want to stay together for life. They'll have to match his best offer next winter, and he needs to accept. I personally hate that this story will loom all season... Ughh

 

[Spanky99]

11 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Don’t really agree with this. If a guy like Vlad becomes available on the trade market, you don’t pass because you signed Pete Alonso or Goldschmidt to a 1/2 year deal.

Exactly, teams will pay if they want the bat. 

[Spanky99]

10 hours ago, Vladdywagon said:

Which is why Soto got 800 million.

I'm saying Vlad should be worth 450 to this FO if they are offering Soto 760.

Vlad is hugely important to our fanbase.  Soto was a pipe dream.  Vlad wants to be here!

You were in on the talks I imagine dEaN? We'll see if Vlad wants to be here if Toronto matches next winter. Quit talking out your ass.

[Spanky99]

10 hours ago, Laika said:

Remember when the New York Yankees let Aaron Judge go to free agency and then brought him back? 

Pepperidge farm remembers 

Was that a massive fumble by New York? 

Teams with big payrolls aren't typically as scared about "losing the player for nothing." Desperate tiny payroll teams are the ones who feel like they have to churn players via trade and always turn them into controllable assets. 

Bang on!

[Bob Ritchie]

4 hours ago, Nexii said:

Vlad gets rated down on range which seems to be the most weighted metric for infield. Guess it's more of a jump thing because he isn't slow in terms of run speed. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

It seems they don't have a metric yet for 1B catching ability? I feel like he's probably about average at that, by the eye test. He probably makes more than average catches while also allowing more passed balls for extra bases. That is to say he doesn't step off on lost cause throws very often

Baseball Savant has a breakdown of where Vlad struggles. In 2024, he was noticeably below average when he had to move in to field a ball (-6 OAA). 

Also, in my opinion, quickness is more important than 90 ft Running Speeds when evaluating a first baseman's fielding ability. Accordingly, Baseball Savant data shows that Vlad is not quick in shorter distances.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2021&endYear=2024&split=yes&team=TOR&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=hide&sort=2&sortDir=desc

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/running_splits?type=percent&bats=&year=2024&position=3&team=&min=5

[Spanky99]

11 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

That would be a huge mistake.

As far as signing Vlad for what he wanted, likely $40M+ AAV and $500M+ total, the Jays can get more WAR through multiple next tier FA.  Vlad is a great bat no doubt, but he sucks at everything else, including the clubhouse (more Gatorade dumps, anyone?).

Trade him now for the best return you can get.

I wouldn't mind moving him for a proper haul, but the hyperbole is strong in this one, what'd Vlad do to you bro? 

[Spanky99]

11 hours ago, BTS said:

Soto (ZiPS + Steamer) projects for 6.5 fWAR next year. Vlad is at 4.8. These are their respective career stats:

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Juan Soto	3 Tms	936	4088	201	655	592	57	18.8%	17.0%	.248	.305	.285	.421	.532	.404		158	-9.8	280.7	-55.0	36.3
2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

Mic drop. 😅

[Spanky99]

11 hours ago, glory said:

Judge turned down more money from the Giants to stay in NY, and the big market teams (NYM, LAD, BOS, PHI, etc) weren't really in on him. Vlad is going to have at least the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees (if he's willing to play there) after him. Schwarber is a FA after 2025 so the Phillies might have interest. The markets seem very different. 

The moment he hits free agency, he's gone. 

I'm sure he'll let the Jays match and become a life long Blue Jay, right? 😜

[Spanky99]

11 hours ago, glory said:

It may not. It's very possible Vlad hits free agency and realizes he's not getting the money he thinks he's worth, but the Jays are going to be up against big market teams with more favorable short and long term contention windows. It won't be the Jays vs the Giants. If the Jays didn't think Vlad was worth overpaying now, then what is going to compel them to outbid the Mets, Red Sox, etc, a year from now? Shapiro in his presser said Ed was involved in the negotiations. If that's true then it's possible Rogers isn't willing to go super high here either.

Ultimately, I don't think the Jays are wrong in not wanting to give Vlad a monster extension. They might end up looking very right. I just don't see them winning or even having the appetite to win a bidding war 9 months from now. Judge was always more likely to stay with the Yankees. 

Holy, he said Ed was in on negotiations? Well, that's interesting. Vlad's been saying he wants to be a Jay for life, what changes here in regards to Judge's decision to Vlad's? 

[Spanky99]

10 hours ago, Laika said:

Probably missed the offseason window to trade him. 

Go for it, sell at deadline if they suck. 

If they are on the bubble at the deadline some tough decisions will need to be made. Worst case scenario could unfold, where they keep everyone and miss the postseason. 

Pretty much, out player development buried us, hopefully some of these guys in the minors step up big and for the love of God stay healthy.

[Spanky99]

10 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

There's a good possibility that Vlad already values himself as if he the repeated 2021 season for the past 3 years (man it would be great to know the truth).

If he does repeat 2021/2024 again, than yes, his valuation may climb.  Maybe that's what the Jays need to see to commit the extra money.  They'll certainly have more competition at that point, but you really can't afford to "miss" on some 10-12 year $450M deal.  More information helps Toronto (and others).

If he isn't as good this year - let's say he repeats 2022, then he's humbled a bit and there's still a chance he resigns with the Jays, or perhaps he was never worth that type of mega deal and he leaves for a comp pick.  If he's not a "special" hitter worth a mega deal, then he's a lot more replaceable and the only "miss" we have is what he would have fetched via trade early this offseason.  Of course the Jays and the FO seemed fully committed to competing in 2025, so that was probably never a real option anyway (whether you like it or not - and I do not).

Good post. It's not as dire as I temporarily read through this articles comments on here. This was always a possibility, we'll see what's in store now. 

[Spanky99]

11 hours ago, Blue balls said:

I’m happy they didn’t give him the moon. If he is sticking to his number, if Bo is not interested in a contract extension and if we are in a WC spot come trade deadline, I believe we should be hybrid sellers. 
 

Jays would possess the likely 2 most wanted players. Trade those two to contenders for young players/prospects. Trade lesser prospects to get good FA’s to play 1B and 2B while Gimenez moves to SS. Adress any other weakness. Re-tool next summer. I doubt they would get that much more now than at the deadline especially for Bichette.

I like the premise of this, but it'd be pretty difficult to pull off, as you're selling to contenders, and the other FA's are also being sought after by contenders.

[Spanky99]

8 hours ago, Mac said:

The worst part for me was how inevitable today's news was. I hoped but really had no confidence in this front office to get anything done.

The first thing they did to upset me is when they rushed out to sign Kendrys Morales a month after Edwin walked off the Wild Card game. These two don't know how to value their own players. The cost to this franchise if Vlad walks over to Boston will be incalculable.

They offered EE 4/80 dude?

[Spanky99]

5 hours ago, Jays24 said:

So we're allowed to humiliate Vladdy by calling him all sorts of names but draw the line at making fun of Shatkins, good to know lol. 

I could care less if the Jays keep Vladdy or not as long as the Jays get better.  From everything we know about both sides, both Vlad and the front office can be delusional regarding his actual worth. 

One thing we know for sure is that if you already know Vlad is delusional, it is literally the job of this front office to pivot to improve the situation.  Obviously we'll see how it plays out from here but the situation doesn't look the best for the Blue Jays currently and that's all I care about.  

Hah... I've seen you insult Vlad copious amounts of times in '20/22/23/'24 until June of last year, pick a lane dude. Actually I've seen you insult Shatkins 85% of the time since October of '22, prior to this he was your guy man, lol. 🤪

I agree with the rest of the post. If the Jays were to trade Vlad, it was last deadline. Once they didn't, they weren't trading him anytime soon, they're competing since that day, the writing was on the wall. Hopefully we make some more moves this offseason to upgrade, but I saw that it has to be done via trades, according to our SN guys that haven't been wrong at all all offseason, lol.

[Carlos Danger]

The difference between Judge and Vlad, is that the Yankees really wanted him and the whole Giants thing just drove up what they had to pay. 

 

It is obvious Shapiro is not as high on Vlad as others on this board or in the media. I agree with Shapiro on this. I have been heavily critical of Shapiro and think he is too risk averse to do what you need to do to go to the next level in many cases. 

However, I agree with Mark in this case. 

Barker said it best. All it takes is one person in that room on the FO side to not have the confidence and it can kill a deal. 

The FO saw a player who came to camp overweight in his early 20s when your metabolism is working full speed. They had him move off 3b to 1b for this.

Then he had inconsistent seasons relative to the money he is asking. He is a dumb ass on the base-paths and his defense is dubious at 1b. Apart from the metrics, former pro 1b players have criticized  his footwork and positioning on the bag at 1b

He has not demonstrated great leadership by actions on or off the field that I can tell. 

Vlad stated he was dealing with issues mentally during his down years. Ok, he is only human, but from a business perspective you probably need to consider his mental toughness. 

Vlad really only performed at an elite level 3.5 out of the 6 months last year.  

If we got Tucker vice Vlad, within 2 months the fan base would be Vlad who. Shapiro is also correct, winning takes care of all reference players the fan base “like” that leave the Team. 

Keeping Vlad at an insane amount of money does nothing to help the Team take the next step. We have had Vlad and still have not won. I bet you could get more wins spreading that money around or going after a change of status quo  impact player like Tucker as an example. 

Verdict- Must trade by deadline or sooner!

When the Blue Jays got rid of fan favorites Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez, partly to shake up the status quo, it was the best move the Blue Jays ever made. 

[Blue balls]

2 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

I like the premise of this, but it'd be pretty difficult to pull off, as you're selling to contenders, and the other FA's are also being sought after by contenders.

I agree… easier said than done.

They would have to strike fast on a player they aim for. By doing so, you remove an option from the market and get a bidding war going on your own players.

Anyhow, lots of ifs between now and then…. !