Article: BREAKING: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Won’t Sign Extension With Blue Jays

[Brock Beauchamp]

I understand tempers are high, and for good reason, but let's refrain from referring to team personnel as "idiots". They're not idiots, they're doing something you disagree with. And maybe it's the wrong decision but smart people also make bad decisions.

But more importantly, calling people stupid and idiots brings nothing of substance to the conversation. Feel free to disagree with decisions, no need to make it personal.

[Stangstag]

45 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Exactly... this is 100% the issue. 

I said from the start, that you need to figure out the Vlad situation at the beginning of free agency before teams fill up their 1B spots and have more money to throw around.  This would also allow the Jays to pivot and spend accordingly in free agency.  

Now any bidding war would include far less teams and know the Jays are in a position of complete desperation.  This front office is full of f***ing idiots and only the same people here will defend them while 95% of the fan base want these idiots gone. 

Don’t really agree with this. If a guy like Vlad becomes available on the trade market, you don’t pass because you signed Pete Alonso or Goldschmidt to a 1/2 year deal.

[Stangstag]

Lots of people arguing with emotions here instead of logic.

I suspect we will look back on this in a few months time (or a few years) and be very happy we didn’t sign Vlad for some ridiculous amount.

[glory]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

The biggest failure here isn’t not signing him - it’s going into the season with him unsigned. If Houston can trade Tucker and SD can trade Soto they could have traded Vlad, but they won’t because Atkins is too passive for the job. 

That's my stance as well. I think the FO is completely reasonable in not wanting to meet Vlad's demands, which I'm guessing were super high after the Soto contract. Vlad has no defensive value or value on the bases, he's had 2 great seasons in 6 years (mixed with some very mediocre ones), and there have been issues with his conditioning since he was 20. Not wanting to give that type of player $500M plus over a decade plus doesn't seem like an unreasonable stance. The issue is the lack of decisiveness. They literally operated this exact same way in 2017, saw it fail miserably from a trade return standpoint, and are making the exact same mistake.

The Astros had a much more compelling case to keep Tucker for one more year given their recent success and place on the win curve, but they made a decisive decision. The Jays have more reason to trade Vlad in a Tucker style trade, but instead are operating as if they (and not Houston) are coming off 8 straight playoff appearances and 2 WS titles in that span. The Jays are literally coming off a last place finish with a bottom 10 farm system. If they knew they couldn't extend Vlad, then he should have been traded months ago.

[Omar]

After 2023 the majority on this board wanted Vladdy shuffled out of here.  Now like the fat girl in school who has a pretty face and returns after summer vacation 25 pounds lighter we're lining up to resign him.  That is what Vladdy's 2024 season equates to. 😜

Will the real Vladdy please stand up?

[Brownie19]

18 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I understand tempers are high, and for good reason, but let's refrain from referring to team personnel as "idiots". They're not idiots, they're doing something you disagree with. And maybe it's the wrong decision but smart people also make bad decisions.

But more importantly, calling people stupid and idiots brings nothing of substance to the conversation. Feel free to disagree with decisions, no need to make it personal.

Best of luck with this.  Idiots is one of the nicer things they'll call Shatkins.

[John_Havok]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Best of luck with this.  Idiots is one of the nicer things they'll call Shatkins.

When asked if the negotiations got close in numbers ...Vlad said one word.

No.

 

[Stangstag]

Everyone should watch this vid.

From a few days ago too, so he was correct 

[Jays24]

41 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Lots of people arguing with emotions here instead of logic.

I suspect we will look back on this in a few months time (or a few years) and be very happy we didn’t sign Vlad for some ridiculous amount.

Majority of people aren't even arguing that you keep him at all costs... it's simply if you aren't keeping him then trade him when his value is the highest and you have the most amount of suitors for a bidding war. 

That also allows you to add the missing pieces in free agency to help justify a near 300M payroll.  The fact they waited this long and were still so far apart just speaks to the lack of preparation from this front office.  No one wants to see Vladdy walk away for nothing.  

[Stangstag]

15 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Majority of people aren't even arguing that you keep him at all costs... it's simply if you aren't keeping him then trade him when his value is the highest and you have the most amount of suitors for a bidding war. 

That also allows you to add the missing pieces in free agency to help justify a near 300M payroll.  The fact they waited this long and were still so far apart just speaks to the lack of preparation from this front office.  No one wants to see Vladdy walk away for nothing.  

They’re probably a better team THIS season with Vlad on it though. And we still have the flexibility to trade him at the deadline if we are out.

[Stangstag]

Also you probably have a better chance at resigning Vlad if you hold onto him vs trading him. I don’t think its a terrible move to let him play out the season. 

[Jimcanuck]

5 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Also you probably have a better chance at resigning Vlad if you hold onto him vs trading him. I don’t think its a terrible move to let him play out the season. 

That would be a huge mistake.

As far as signing Vlad for what he wanted, likely $40M+ AAV and $500M+ total, the Jays can get more WAR through multiple next tier FA.  Vlad is a great bat no doubt, but he sucks at everything else, including the clubhouse (more Gatorade dumps, anyone?).

Trade him now for the best return you can get.

[Jimcanuck]

Also, Vlad doesn't strike me as the professional type.  Would not want him on the team if he's just playing out the year with the expectation of moving on.  If he's kept, he'll hit, but get ready for terrible defense and baserunning by an uninterested Vlad.

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Also, Vlad doesn't strike me as the professional type.  Would not want him on the team if he's just playing out the year with the expectation of moving on.  If he's kept, he'll hit, but get ready for terrible defense and baserunning by an uninterested Vlad.

He was the worst baserunner in MLB last year.  I'm not sure what you want us to get ready for. 

It's also really stupid of him to not go out and play his very best if he wants to justify a $600-700M contract.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

He was the worst baserunner in MLB last year.  I'm not sure what you want us to get ready for. 

It's also really stupid of him to not go out and play his very best if he wants to justify a $600-700M contract.

So you don't like Vladdys defence and base running but you were OK with them offering Soto 760 million?  

He's got the same warts.  Both guys can rake.  You can't be OK with Soto at 760 but then not Vlad at 60-70% of that. 

 

 

 

[Jimcanuck]

7 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

He was the worst baserunner in MLB last year.  I'm not sure what you want us to get ready for. 

It's also really stupid of him to not go out and play his very best if he wants to justify a $600-700M contract.

Vlad thinks baseball is hitting and the rest is very secondary

[Stangstag]

24 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Also, Vlad doesn't strike me as the professional type.  Would not want him on the team if he's just playing out the year with the expectation of moving on.  If he's kept, he'll hit, but get ready for terrible defense and baserunning by an uninterested Vlad.

He has a vested interest in having a great season though, because he doesn’t sniff 400 mil unless he puts up like 5 WAR. So it benefits both sides for him to have a good year.

[glory]

26 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Also, Vlad doesn't strike me as the professional type.  Would not want him on the team if he's just playing out the year with the expectation of moving on.  If he's kept, he'll hit, but get ready for terrible defense and baserunning by an uninterested Vlad.

Vlad has every incentive in the world to be motivated this season. He's going to be the top FA in the class, and he knows another non-elite season is going to hurt his value significantly. Obviously we've been down this road before (JD in 2018) and didn't get the desired result, but Vlad at 26 and Bo at 27 playing for their first big contracts means you're probably getting max effort out of both. In Vlad's case, max effort still means he's going to suck defensively and on the bases. That's just the type of player he is. 

[Stangstag]

7 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

So you don't like Vladdys defence and base running but you were OK with them offering Soto 760 million?  

He's got the same warts.  Both guys can rake.  You can't be OK with Soto at 760 but then not Vlad at 60-70% of that. 

 

 

 

Soto is way more consistent, generally has a better attitude, and took 2 teams to the WS.

Vlad isn’t half the player Soto is

[Jonn]

6 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

So you don't like Vladdys defence and base running but you were OK with them offering Soto 760 million?  

He's got the same warts.  Both guys can rake.  You can't be OK with Soto at 760 but then not Vlad at 60-70% of that. 

 

 

 

The biggest difference between Vlad and Soto is body shape. The ability to actually play the OF even if he’s not that good at it. Soto’s skill set ages better. And by far the biggest factor. Soto has been way more consistent, Vlad has had 2 elite Seasons out of his 5. You could argue Soto has been elite since Day 1 outside of a minor blip with the Padres before turning elite again. And his blip was still a really good Baseball player.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

Soto is way more consistent, generally has a better attitude, and took 2 teams to the WS.

Vlad isn’t half the player Soto is

This is hilarious.

 

I love Soto.  I think he's the best hitter in the game.

But Vlad isn't far behind.

Soto took 2 teams to the WS did he?  He didn't have any help with that?

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

2 minutes ago, Jonn said:

The biggest difference between Vlad and Soto is body shape. The ability to actually play the OF even if he’s not that good at it. Soto’s skill set ages better. And by far the biggest factor. Soto has been way more consistent, Vlad has had 2 elite Seasons out of his 5. You could argue Soto has been elite since Day 1 outside of a minor blip with the Padres before turning elite again. And his blip was still a really good Baseball player.

Which is why Soto got 800 million.

I'm saying Vlad should be worth 450 to this FO if they are offering Soto 760.

Vlad is hugely important to our fanbase.  Soto was a pipe dream.  Vlad wants to be here!

[Rusty_Savage]

Hard to pass judgement on this without knowing the particulars.  If Vlad is asking for way too much money, he will figure that out in free agency and the market will decide what he's worth.  I always thought the best route was to trade everyone and start fresh but that was a pipe dream.  After the signings they made they were essentially pot committed on the season.  See how it plays out I guess but if the team is out of it at the deadline then I'm guessing a huge firesale is coming in Aug.

[Laika]

Remember when the New York Yankees let Aaron Judge go to free agency and then brought him back? 

Pepperidge farm remembers 

Was that a massive fumble by New York? 

Teams with big payrolls aren't typically as scared about "losing the player for nothing." Desperate tiny payroll teams are the ones who feel like they have to churn players via trade and always turn them into controllable assets. 

[thatoneguy]

4 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

This is hilarious.

 

I love Soto.  I think he's the best hitter in the game.

But Vlad isn't far behind.

Soto took 2 teams to the WS did he?  He didn't have any help with that?

I mean he was easily a top 2-3 reason why those teams went to the WS.

[Rusty_Savage]

2 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

Which is why Soto got 800 million.

I'm saying Vlad should be worth 450 to this FO if they are offering Soto 760.

Vlad is hugely important to our fanbase.  Soto was a pipe dream.  Vlad wants to be here!

Do you know what Vlad's demands were or are you just assuming?

[Jonn]

1 minute ago, Vladdywagon said:

Which is why Soto got 800 million.

I'm saying Vlad should be worth 450 to this FO if they are offering Soto 760.

Vlad is hugely important to our fanbase.  Soto was a pipe dream.  Vlad wants to be here!

Paying a 1B who should actually be a DH $450 million would have the potential to be franchise crippling. I doubt the Jays even entertained anything over $400. They were probably comfortable in the 300-325 range and pushed it to 350 to try to get it done. I think the contract if agreed to will look like 10-years 375 with deferred money.

People thinking he will get 450-500 million are insane. Unless he starts playing 3B again and can legit stay there.

 

[M.E.]

This really just sucked any hope I had for the season and the future out of me.  Whether it would have been a good or bad deal at least we had our star locked up instead of hoping to bring in a guy through free agency that ultimately won't sign here.  The only option now is trade him and Bo and rebuild.......again.

[BTS]

5 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

This is hilarious.

 

I love Soto.  I think he's the best hitter in the game.

But Vlad isn't far behind.

Soto took 2 teams to the WS did he?  He didn't have any help with that?

Soto (ZiPS + Steamer) projects for 6.5 fWAR next year. Vlad is at 4.8. These are their respective career stats:

#	Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
1	Juan Soto	3 Tms	936	4088	201	655	592	57	18.8%	17.0%	.248	.305	.285	.421	.532	.404		158	-9.8	280.7	-55.0	36.3
2	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	819	3540	160	475	507	20	9.9%	15.6%	.213	.304	.288	.363	.500	.367		137	-14.8	139.8	-91.5	17.0

[Omar]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

Remember when the New York Yankees let Aaron Judge go to free agency and then brought him back? 

Pepperidge farm remembers 

Was that a massive fumble by New York? 

Teams with big payrolls aren't typically as scared about "losing the player for nothing." Desperate tiny payroll teams are the ones who feel like they have to churn players via trade and always turn them into controllable assets. 

Sure but by all accounts Judge turned down a more lucrative offer from the Padres to resign with NYY.  I see Vladdy as only interested in n one thing, the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

"We all know where rainbow goes, we are told it's a pit of gold". Screw Pepperidge Farms.