Multiple free agents took notice of Jays uninspiring farm system - Passan

[AMS528]

From Passan

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An unmitigated disaster. The Blue Jays whiffed on Soto. They whiffed on Burnes. They whiffed on Fried. They have not locked up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a contract extension, and every day without one brings him a day closer to his impending free agency.

Quote

They have money and are willing to spend it. But in an AL East with a Yankees team that made the World Series, an ascendant Red Sox team, an always-competitive Tampa Bay squad and a Baltimore Orioles unit that could be the best of them all, the Blue Jays don't rate quite the same. And with an uninspiring farm system -- multiple free agent players took notice -- and next to no foundational players under contract beyond 2025, ultimately the good is counterbalanced by the not so good.

 

Very fun reading here. If Shatkins either don't manage to make some solid signings to go into the season + extend Vlad, or make the decision to rebuild and make the trades to start that and instead go into the season with some minor moves and no Vlad extension they both need to be shot into the sun. 

Unsurprising really that the farm is making an impact not just on failing to affordably replenish the Jays current roster but also turning off free agents. Some media member should really ask Shapiro about the "bare cupboard". 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43261112/teams-winning-mlb-offseason-need-move-dodgers-yankees-mets-braves

[Brownie19]

Nothing new here.  It's 2017/18 again.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oof. That's really all I got.

Oof.

[AMS528]

32 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Nothing new here.  It's 2017/18 again.  

Yeah it is, but we really weren't supposed to be back here again. 

Shapiro's bare cupboard comment gets more grating to me to remember every year that goes by. Meanwhile the Braves develop three new pitchers  every single season. 

[wilko]

I'm impressed Atkins was able to trade away "prospects" for legit major league players... Shame on them for the terrible farm.  

[Carlos Danger]

1 hour ago, AMS528 said:

From Passan

 

Very fun reading here. If Shatkins either don't manage to make some solid signings to go into the season + extend Vlad, or make the decision to rebuild and make the trades to start that and instead go into the season with some minor moves and no Vlad extension they both need to be shot into the sun. 

Unsurprising really that the farm is making an impact not just on failing to affordably replenish the Jays current roster but also turning off free agents. Some media member should really ask Shapiro about the "bare cupboard". 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43261112/teams-winning-mlb-offseason-need-move-dodgers-yankees-mets-braves

Would you mind posting the whole article if you have access? I am getting blocked by a paywall? Thanks in advance!

[Brownie19]

30 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

Yeah it is, but we really weren't supposed to be back here again. 

Shapiro's bare cupboard comment gets more grating to me to remember every year that goes by. Meanwhile the Braves develop three new pitchers  every single season. 

I love AA and I love the Braves, but let's be honest - they have have several failed pitching prospects over the past 3-4 years.  Ian Anderson, Yuascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver (he still has time to turn it around).  They have very little pitching depth right now and the rotation scraped through last year with smoke and mirrors.  It only had 2 home grown players in it (unless you want to include Elder and his 6.50 ERA) and one of those is now gone.

The 2024 Braves are eerily similar to the 2023 Blue Jays.  One of the very best offenses in baseball completely dropped off the table and they squeaked into the playoffs (thank god Ozuna beasted for them).  Lots of injuries obviously, but just a bizarre fall off by Acuna, Harris, Riley, Olson, Albies, Murphy, etc.  That said - the core is all signed and most are good candidates to rebound, but I'm worried they need more depth on that rotation, especially with Fried gone.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Brownie19 said:

I love AA and I love the Braves, but let's be honest - they have have several failed pitching prospects over the past 3-4 years.  Ian Anderson, Yuascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver (he still has time to turn it around).  They have very little pitching depth right now and the rotation scraped through last year with smoke and mirrors.  It only had 2 home grown players in it (unless you want to include Elder and his 6.50 ERA) and one of those is now gone.

The 2024 Braves are eerily similar to the 2023 Blue Jays.  One of the very best offenses in baseball completely dropped off the table and they squeaked into the playoffs (thank god Ozuna beasted for them).  Lots of injuries obviously, but just a bizarre fall off by Acuna, Harris, Riley, Olson, Albies, Murphy, etc.  That said - the core is all signed and most are good candidates to rebound, but I'm worried they need more depth on that rotation, especially with Fried gone.

I mostly agree with this. The Braves looked really impressive for a 3-4 year stretch and continue to look pretty smart for those extensions but that's a pretty flawed team at this point.

[Laika]

28 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I love AA and I love the Braves, but let's be honest - they have have several failed pitching prospects over the past 3-4 years.  Ian Anderson, Yuascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver (he still has time to turn it around).  They have very little pitching depth right now and the rotation scraped through last year with smoke and mirrors.  It only had 2 home grown players in it (unless you want to include Elder and his 6.50 ERA) and one of those is now gone.

The 2024 Braves are eerily similar to the 2023 Blue Jays.  One of the very best offenses in baseball completely dropped off the table and they squeaked into the playoffs (thank god Ozuna beasted for them).  Lots of injuries obviously, but just a bizarre fall off by Acuna, Harris, Riley, Olson, Albies, Murphy, etc.  That said - the core is all signed and most are good candidates to rebound, but I'm worried they need more depth on that rotation, especially with Fried gone.

Every team has a graveyard of pitching prospects 

You could say that one of the main reasons the Braves have won is because of a few key developmental wins on the SP depth chart. Strider was a huge win (RIP) now they have Schewellenbach who is also very good. And they were very smart on the Sale and Reynaldo deals. Some of the above wins are because of aggressive or progressive decision making. 

They have SOMETHING going on there that is interesting and good, compared to Toronto's flat developmental track record, even if AA is doing AA things and not completing his 40 man roster optimally. 

[L54]

Waves of talent 

[Brownie19]

22 minutes ago, Laika said:

Every team has a graveyard of pitching prospects 

You could say that one of the main reasons the Braves have won is because of a few key developmental wins on the SP depth chart. Strider was a huge win (RIP) now they have Schewellenbach who is also very good. And they were very smart on the Sale and Reynaldo deals. Some of the above wins are because of aggressive or progressive decision making. 

They have SOMETHING going on there that is interesting and good, compared to Toronto's flat developmental track record, even if AA is doing AA things and not completing his 40 man roster optimally. 

I don't disagree, but they haven't been "developing 3 new pitchers every year". 

But yes - Jays suck, FO sucks, Country sucks.  Everything sucks around here.  Waves of talent, hardy har har.

[Eat My Shatkins]

What gets me is even when the Jays do have a wave of pitching prospects that look like they might have something, they hit Buffalo and f***ing die. Especially the relievers. Like what in the hell happened to Connor Cooke last year? And Pardinho was a beast relieving last year then got promoted to Buffalo and got his face caved in.

[L54]

Because if relievers are volatile in the majors… they’re certainly going to be volatile at the minor league level 

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

What gets me is even when the Jays do have a wave of pitching prospects that look like they might have something, they hit Buffalo and f***ing die. Especially the relievers. Like what in the hell happened to Connor Cooke last year? And Pardinho was a beast relieving last year then got promoted to Buffalo and got his face caved in.

Bad coaching of course.  It's actually been pretty impressive how the pitching coaches in AAA can ruin absolutely everyone who comes through there.  You'd think they'd f*ck up at least once and let a good pitcher though.  But no - they must all DIE.

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, L54 said:

Because if relievers are volatile in the majors… they’re certainly going to be volatile at the minor league level 

How can it be volatile when they ALL die?  That's consistently, not volatility.

[L54]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

How can it be volatile when they ALL die?  That's consistently, not volatility.

Because your sample size is like 4 guys who showed a glimmer of promise in the last few seasons 

[Laika]

It can be seen at every level. MLB level, Manoah died, Romano died, the entire bullpen died. 

Expect Bowden Francis and Y Rod to be sitting 89 in spring. 

Jake Bloss won't get out of AAA all season. 5.00+ ERA and complete loss of prospect status within 12 months. 

Adam Macko had a 4.87 ERA in AA last year at 23 years old... and that is a guy who supposedly had a decent year. lol! 

Trey Yesevage must pray for a trade every night. Oh baby Jesus, trade me to the Mariners, pretty please. 

[Terminator]

I don't doubt that FAs have brought up the farm system, but I have a hard time believing that they truly care.

What they care about is:

1. The money

2. What their wife thinks

The rest of it is all leverage to get more money. "Hey, your farm system sucks and I want to win long term. You're going to have to up your offer to get me to play there."

And it's not just prospects. They'll use whatever they can. "I don't want to live in Canada." "Your taxes are too high." "I want to play on the west coast."

[L54]

Honestly the Jays kinda have a decent group of pitchers who are kinda interesting and/or could bounce back  

Tieds

Bloss

Maroudis 

Manoah 

Yesevage

Rojas 

Watts-Brown

 

[AMS528]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I love AA and I love the Braves, but let's be honest - they have have several failed pitching prospects over the past 3-4 years.  Ian Anderson, Yuascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver (he still has time to turn it around).  They have very little pitching depth right now and the rotation scraped through last year with smoke and mirrors.  It only had 2 home grown players in it (unless you want to include Elder and his 6.50 ERA) and one of those is now gone.

The 2024 Braves are eerily similar to the 2023 Blue Jays.  One of the very best offenses in baseball completely dropped off the table and they squeaked into the playoffs (thank god Ozuna beasted for them).  Lots of injuries obviously, but just a bizarre fall off by Acuna, Harris, Riley, Olson, Albies, Murphy, etc.  That said - the core is all signed and most are good candidates to rebound, but I'm worried they need more depth on that rotation, especially with Fried gone.

 

Every team has failed pitching prospects. But if you take a glance at the lower levels for the Braves they have a few guys who aren't quite well known yet but had excellent years in 2024. Certainly more of those brightspots than we had even between just like Hackenberg and Braun who are both 22 with room for development and will both be at AAA. Waldrep's also still just 22. That's three 22 year old prospects at AAA. Plus AJ Smith-Shawver. 

I think they basically have enough guys who had good years in 2024 to have possibilities. They drafted some guy in the 17th round who immediately threw 20 great innings in A ball.

We certainly don't have as many guys who threw over 100 innings successfully in the minors. I have no doubt the Braves will plug in some of them at some point this season (maybe successfully, maybe not). We have some guys of interest, we have very few guys with any kind of track record with making regular starts. 

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, L54 said:

Because your sample size is like 4 guys who showed a glimmer of promise in the last few seasons 

Zulueta, Cooke, Danner, Juenger, Pardinho, Fluharty, Jimmy Burnette, Adrian Hernandez - there have been a number of interesting arms work there way through the system with a lot of success and promise, only to hit AAA and then completely s*** the bed. 

One thing that seems consistent is their walks skyrocket (automated strike zone having an impact?).  Cooke went from about a 2.5 BB/9 rate to 7+ in AAA.  Trenton Wallace had a similar jump last year too.

Even Bloss had a 6.91 ERA in 8 starts last year at AAA, Chad Dallas - also destroyed as a starter in AAA.

The only RP prospects who've had success at the ML level from our system all had it on new teams. Bryan Baker and Payamps.

[Eat My Shatkins]

11 minutes ago, L54 said:

Honestly the Jays kinda have a decent group of pitchers who are kinda interesting and/or could bounce back  

Tieds

Bloss

Maroudis 

Manoah 

Yesevage

Rojas 

Watts-Brown

 

Barriera as well

[Eat My Shatkins]

10 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Zulueta, Cooke, Danner, Juenger, Pardinho, Fluharty, Jimmy Burnette, Adrian Hernandez - there have been a number of interesting arms work there way through the system with a lot of success and promise, only to hit AAA and then completely s*** the bed. 

One thing that seems consistent is their walks skyrocket (automated strike zone having an impact?).  Cooke went from about a 2.5 BB/9 rate to 7+ in AAA.  Trenton Wallace had a similar jump last year too.

Even Bloss had a 6.91 ERA in 8 starts last year at AAA, Chad Dallas - also destroyed as a starter in AAA.

The only RP prospects who've had success at the ML level from our system all had it on new teams. Bryan Baker and Payamps.

Exactly, if even 2 or 3 of those guys had made it through unscathed, our bullpen would be in so much better shape, and cheaper.

[Brownie19]

12 minutes ago, L54 said:

Honestly the Jays kinda have a decent group of pitchers who are kinda interesting and/or could bounce back  

Tieds

Bloss

Maroudis 

Manoah 

Yesevage

Rojas 

Watts-Brown

 

We must be due for some good luck.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[L54]

1 minute ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Barriera as well

Another one 

[AMS528]

20 minutes ago, L54 said:

Honestly the Jays kinda have a decent group of pitchers who are kinda interesting and/or could bounce back  

Tieds

Bloss

Maroudis 

Manoah 

Yesevage

Rojas 

Watts-Brown

 

Maroudis is coming back from injury, Manoah is a complete question between the injuries and other struggles, Tieds is at this point with all the injuries a complete question mark, Yesavage has never pitched in the minors yet, Rojas pitched decently but only 62 innings last year (plus 15 less great fall innings), Watts-Brown had good strikeout numbers but struggled a lot with control. Bloss could be fine and we did not develop him. 

The decent group is mostly a group of questions and unknowns. They could turn out, but the issue here is that if that's the decent group it's sad that there's basically no one (outside of Bloss maybe with Houston) that you could point to and say unequivocally had a really great year in the minors. 

 

 

[Brownie19]

25 minutes ago, Laika said:

Trey Yesevage must pray for a trade every night. Oh baby Jesus, trade me to the Mariners, pretty please. 

You could see the disgust in his face on draft night.  I'm actually surprised he signed.

[L54]

6 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

Maroudis is coming back from injury, Manoah is a complete question between the injuries and other struggles, Tieds is at this point with all the injuries a complete question mark, Yesavage has never pitched in the minors yet, Rojas pitched decently but only 62 innings last year, Watts-Brown had good strikeout numbers but struggled a lot with control. Bloss could be fine and we did not develop him. 

The decent group is mostly a group of questions and unknowns. They could turn out, but the issue here is that if that's the decent group it's sad that there's basically no one (outside of Bloss maybe with Houston) that you could point to and say unequivocally had a really great year in the minors. 

 

I’m trying to be positive 

Its a lot stronger than it has been in years past

Of course my faith in the development is low, but the pitching side of things is healthier than the hitting 

[glory]

49 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I don't doubt that FAs have brought up the farm system, but I have a hard time believing that they truly care.

What they care about is:

1. The money

2. What their wife thinks

The rest of it is all leverage to get more money. "Hey, your farm system sucks and I want to win long term. You're going to have to up your offer to get me to play there."

And it's not just prospects. They'll use whatever they can. "I don't want to live in Canada." "Your taxes are too high." "I want to play on the west coast."

Yeah I think the farm system talk is a bit excessive. Hypothetically, if the Jays had a top 5 system in baseball, does Burnes sign here? No. He specifically wanted Arizona. Does Soto sign here? No, the Jays were not outbidding Steve Cohen. Does Teo sign here? No, he wanted to stay in LA, and realistically, the Jays probably didn't have much interest there either given that they found him expendable two years ago. The farm system is not preventing the Jays from signing players. Vlad only being around for 1 more year is probably a far bigger concern with free agents who likely don't want to spend their last few good seasons on a team with Andres Gimenez as the star player, but beyond that, it's money, years, and location. The order of those 3 things varies based on the player, but that's what it will come down to. The quality of the player also makes a difference. Burnes knew he could get money anywhere. Santander being a one dimensional player just turning 30 is far more likely to sign with the Jays due to lack of other options.

Ultimately the Jays should be doing a better job with player development, and they haven't. I don't think that's the reason players are going elsewhere, though. If they extend Vlad today, with absolutely no change to their farm system quality, then I'm guessing they become at least a bit more desirable. 

[Pendleton]

1 hour ago, L54 said:

Honestly the Jays kinda have a decent group of pitchers who are kinda interesting and/or could bounce back  

Tieds

Bloss

Maroudis 

Manoah 

Yesevage

Rojas 

Watts-Brown

 

Khal Stephen 

Fernando Perez

Johnny King 

 

Lots of interesting arms