Blue Jays Meeting With Vlad This Week To Discuss Future + Other Juicy Tidbits

[Jimcanuck]

Generally a player loses value as the clock to free agency ticks down.  But this is not always true as others have alluded.

The ideal scenario will be Vlad is a 150+ wRC bat before the break, the Jays are 10 games below .500, and someone like Freeman or Olson suffers a season ending injury.  Being the Jays, won't happen.

[Terminator]

Just now, Jimcanuck said:

Generally a player loses value as the clock to free agency ticks down.  But this is not always true as others have alluded.

The ideal scenario will be Vlad is a 150+ wRC bat before the break, the Jays are 10 games below .500, and someone like Freeman or Olson suffers a season ending injury.  Being the Jays, won't happen.

How is that ideal?

 

[Dick_Pole]

Before I didn't care about the language thing, but last year's debacle with Ohtani and his interpreter changed things for me. Hey dumbshit, you're getting paid nearly 9 digits a year between your endorsements and your baseball contract (yeah I know, deferred). Maybe splurge a little on some Duolingo English lessons so you don't open yourself up to being an easy mark for scammers? 

Sammy Sosa bringing a lawyer to speak for him at the steroids hearing made sense.  In a legal setting you do not want to mess around with any potential misunderstanding. Guerrero refusing English interviews while being an entertainer in a mainly English speaking region because he felt he was misinterpreted 5 years ago is top-grade diva behaviour and he needs to go. 

[Brownie19]

17 minutes ago, Terminator said:

How is that ideal?

 

He's just saying it would be the ideal situation for the Jays to get "the most" in return for Vlad.

 

[Dick_Pole]

Knowing Jim, he would take a team 10 games under .500 every year if that meant contention was perpetually only 3 years away. Pretty sure he applies Trust the Process to his career and love life as well. He is the 2016 Philadelphia 76ers in human form. 

[Jimcanuck]

11 minutes ago, Dick_Pole said:

Knowing Jim, he would take a team 10 games under .500 every year if that meant contention was perpetually only 3 years away. Pretty sure he applies Trust the Process to his career and love life as well. He is the 2016 Philadelphia 76ers in human form. 

Dude I made playoffs in 4 of my 5 fantasy leagues last year, won one and was in the final of two others.  I know how to build a winner

[Laika]

1 hour ago, Dick_Pole said:

I'm not so sure this narrative around trading him now will maximize his return than at the deadline exists anymore. With the expanded playoffs and the way the playoffs function (the bye round hasn't really helped teams that much), MLB has basically turned into the NHL and NBA where the first four months of the season don't matter. 

Back in the day when you had to win your division to see a playoff spot, the 3 extra WAR by having Guerrero on your team from April to July really helps. Now, not so much. It's a trade-off now. Guerrero has less team control by July, but each team has more information, including the Jays. The former obviously decreases his value. The latter increases his value to some teams, potentially more than the former decreases it and his value goes up. 

The biggest risk you have is if he falls off a cliff and tanks his value in July. But if that happens, there will be a limited bidding war for him during free agency and you might be able to sign him at a reasonable price.

The second biggest "risk" is that he performs extremely well. So well that the Jays are contenders and won't trade him at all. 

Very true. A team trading for Vlad at the deadline would be doing so with the confidence that he is supporting their actual World Series push. Like, they could have 98% playoff odds at the time they acquire him rather than their 70% preseason odds or whatever. 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, Dick_Pole said:

Before I didn't care about the language thing, but last year's debacle with Ohtani and his interpreter changed things for me. Hey dumbshit, you're getting paid nearly 9 digits a year between your endorsements and your baseball contract (yeah I know, deferred). Maybe splurge a little on some Duolingo English lessons so you don't open yourself up to being an easy mark for scammers? 

Sammy Sosa bringing a lawyer to speak for him at the steroids hearing made sense.  In a legal setting you do not want to mess around with any potential misunderstanding. Guerrero refusing English interviews while being an entertainer in a mainly English speaking region because he felt he was misinterpreted 5 years ago is top-grade diva behaviour and he needs to go. 

It wasn’t the fact Ohtani had him interpreting that led to the issues.  It was that he trusted him with so many of his affairs and he had far too much access.  Also, Ohtani speaks English well enough that he would have picked up on anything being translated incorrectly if paying attention at all.

[Spanky99]

23 hours ago, Angrioter said:

Vladdy Jr isn't open to an extension with another team if the Jays traded him..... he want the open market.... that reduce the trade value 

Agreed, he took leverage away from them, hah!

[RobinThicc]

12 years 420 mill gets it done I bet.

[wilko]

1 minute ago, RobinThicc said:

12 years 420 mill gets it done I bet.

[Bone R]

39 minutes ago, RobinThicc said:

12 years 420 mill gets it done I bet.

I suggested that exact number earlier in this thread. That'll have at least 4 ugly years, but that's the highest I'd go as the Jays FO. That's takes Vladdy to age 38. If Vladdy is looking for much more than that, trade him. 

[Terminator]

37 minutes ago, RobinThicc said:

12 years 420 mill gets it done I bet.

I might consider that but it's scary. Here's some tweaks to make it slightly better:

-Give him a signing bonus to avoid Canadian taxes. Vlad is living in FL right now so my guess is he has established residency. This works to avoid CA state taxes, not sure if it works to avoid Canadian taxes but I think it might.

-Because of that signing bonus which is good for Vlad, in return turn around and stuff as many deferrals into the contract as he'll possibly take to lower the present day value. The deferrals also help him avoid taxes.

-Consider adding another year or two to lower the AAV and any potential luxury tax hits

-Contend for early playoff exits via the WC3 in perpetuity (because with Vlad's 5 WAR the playoffs will be easy to make)

[Jays24]

It was crazy how all we heard was a first baseman has never cracked the 300M contract mark but here we are.  I still think the Soto contract is absurdly stupid so that should definitely never be used as a benchmark for your decisions.  I'm also not a fan of people with Vlad's body type and if you take away his incentives to stay in shape, how will he look in his 30s...

[Bone R]

1 minute ago, Jays24 said:

It was crazy how all we heard was a first baseman has never cracked the 300M contract mark and here we are.  I still think the Soto contract is absurdly stupid so that should definitely never be used as a benchmark for your decisions.  I'm also not a fan of people with Vlad's body type and if you take away his incentives to stay in shape, how will he look in his 30s...

Put a clause in his contract that he needs to stay below a certain weight. If he goes over, he loses significant bonuses. 

[Terminator]

David Ortiz was a fat bastard and mashed until he was 40.

[Jays24]

Just now, Bone R said:

Put a clause in his contract that he needs to stay below a certain weight. If he goes over, he loses significant bonuses. 

I mentioned to do that a few times as the Pelicans did it with Zion in the NBA but Vladdy has all the leverage here.  I'm sure teams would offer him the money without this clause. 

Just sucks but the Jays gotta find their breaking point like yesterday so they can proceed to make the required moves to improve this team going forward.  

[wilko]

23 minutes ago, Terminator said:

David Ortiz was a fat bastard and mashed until he was 40.

Everyone thought he was cooked in 2013 at 37. He then turned it on in the 2nd half of the season and played three more years after that.

[Jays24]

6 minutes ago, wilko said:

Everyone thought he was cooked in 2013 at 37. He then turned it on in the 2nd half of the season and played three more years after that.

Honestly, I put him part of the steroids era.  This dude was a complete scrub who turned into a monster out of nowhere.  Although I think people thought the same of Jose Bautista so impossible to know lol.

Edited January 3, 2025 by Jays24

[Bone R]

28 minutes ago, Terminator said:

David Ortiz was a fat bastard and mashed until he was 40.

He was also on roids 

[Stangstag]

6 hours ago, L54 said:

You can make up as many scenarios as you want, but there’s like a 95% probability one entire season of Vlad is worth more than 3 months 

Holding him you risk injury, under performance, a Jays team that’s 3 games above .500 

Of course the ship to trade Vlad this offseason has all but set sail with so many first baseman already changing teams

Nobody is doubting the fact that a full season is “worth more”, obviously it is.

But that doesn’t mean the trade offers wouldn’t be as good at the deadline. The market dictates the return.

[Stangstag]

15 minutes ago, wilko said:

Everyone thought he was cooked in 2013 at 37. He then turned it on in the 2nd half of the season and played three more years after that.

Totally no steroids involved 

[L54]

13 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Nobody is doubting the fact that a full season is “worth more”, obviously it is.

But that doesn’t mean the trade offers wouldn’t be as good at the deadline. The market dictates the return.

Sure the trade offers could be the same as the offseason. Probably not but they could be

or they could be worse 

or Vlad could be injured 

or the Jays could be 43-40 

[Jays24]

4 minutes ago, L54 said:

Sure the trade offers could be the same as the offseason. Probably not but they could be

or they could be worse 

or Vlad could be injured 

or the Jays could be 43-40 

For a bunch of folks who live and die by analytics, I'm surprised how they're not seeing the probability of getting more value if he was traded ASAP vs trading him at the deadline lol. 

In the end, you never know what tomorrow holds but don't you want your team to pick the probability with the best odds of benefiting the Jays? 

[RobinThicc]

39 minutes ago, Bone R said:

He was also on roids 

Put a clause in Vlads contract he needs to take steroids

[Bone R]

56 minutes ago, RobinThicc said:

Put a clause in Vlads contract he needs to take steroids

Hahah I like this idea 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

For a bunch of folks who live and die by analytics, I'm surprised how they're not seeing the probability of getting more value if he was traded ASAP vs trading him at the deadline lol. 

In the end, you never know what tomorrow holds but don't you want your team to pick the probability with the best odds of benefiting the Jays? 

I think everyone understands that.  It's just there are scenarios where he'll be worth as much, or possibly more (slimmer chance, but could happen) at the deadline. That does allow the Jays to defer that decision and play out the 1st half of the season and see what happens.  If Rogers wants butts in seats, this may ultimately be what happens.

As you note, there are obvious risks in that approach - and Atkins hands could be somewhat tied.

It would be interesting to know just "how much more" teams would give us right now v. at the deadline - assuming he has another strong season.  Is it 10% more value?  25%? 50%?

[Blue balls]

Anything over 360 000 000$/12 yrs for Guerrero Jr is a no sign for me. Really bad base runner. I don't feel like he is as bad defensively at first base as the numbers show but it's still not a premium position. Despite good offensive numbers this year, he frustrates me a lot hitting into dp's quite often making innings die. I would trade him. I think they have to keep hoping premium position players will take their offer in free agency (Upcoming years) and keep aiming for Gimenez style deals where they will spend money on players other teams might not be willing to afford as plan B. There is always players you can sign for cheap later and shorter terms in offseason to play DH or 1B but you will never find premium SS, 3B, 2B, CF and SP in this situation.

[mphenhef]

12 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I hear what you're saying.  He could choose to improve his english to the point that he's comfortable enough to use it during an interview.  That probably would endear him with more fans.  But as was pointed out, there's a good chance he's been told not to do that - not to risk it.

At the end of the day - player interviews are stupid anyway.  

Maybe he doesn’t care to endear himself to the fans who don’t like him because he doesn’t speak their language well enough.  Take whatever implication you want about those people.

[Jays24]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I think everyone understands that.  It's just there are scenarios where he'll be worth as much, or possibly more (slimmer chance, but could happen) at the deadline. That does allow the Jays to defer that decision and play out the 1st half of the season and see what happens.  If Rogers wants butts in seats, this may ultimately be what happens.

As you note, there are obvious risks in that approach - and Atkins hands could be somewhat tied.

It would be interesting to know just "how much more" teams would give us right now v. at the deadline - assuming he has another strong season.  Is it 10% more value?  25%? 50%?

I think the Jays missed the boat on maximizing any potential return by not doing this right away in free agency before other teams could already plug those holes.  Vlads been with the organization long enough that there needed to be a lot more back and forth communication on an extension before today.  

At this stage, it would be anyone's guess what we could get back but my assumption would be that the Mets would offer us the most in such a scenario.