Blue Jays Meeting With Vlad This Week To Discuss Future + Other Juicy Tidbits

[Jays24]

 

[Carlos Danger]

27 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

No reason to doubt any of that. However, isn’t this the same source that reported the Jays signing Corbin Burnes was imminent?

 

[Jays24]

23 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

 

No, that was some other random, which was "90% co-signed" by someone who used to post here i believe lol. 

[Abomination]

Santander at 5/100 seems pretty reasonable to me. I'd prefer 4 years, but at this point securing a big bat is more important imo than playing games and having someone else come in. It might also encourage someone like JDM to sign as DH.

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

 

I’d be pretty surprised if they decided to trade Vlad before the start of the season, but this is juicy info if true.

[Bone R]

I think 12 years x $35 for a total of $420 million gets the deal done. It'll have some bad years but Jays need to re-sign Vladdy. He sells tickets. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, Bone R said:

I think 12 years x $35 for a total of $420 million gets the deal done. It'll have some bad years but Jays need to re-sign Vladdy. He sells tickets. 

Winning sells tickets. If they can construct a better roster without paying Vlad 30+ million a year for the next decade then so be it. The fans will come to the ballpark to see a winner.

[Laika]

It's a tough situation to handle, we can all agree on that. 

On paper is Vlad "worth" $420M or more? Based on his age and projections he might be by a $/WAR calculation. The market seems to say he is if you use the Soto contract as a measuring stick. However, by a ton of other precedents the market has said for a long time that he shouldn't be worth that much. 

Regardless, how many players like this are ever available, at all? 25/26 year olds with a 5+ WAR projection. He is young enough that you could give him a 13 year deal, suck for two years right away, and still have him for two cycles of competition in the remaining 11 years. 

How much do you just begrudgingly overpay to lock up the rare asset? 

[Omar]

I suspect at this point it is not even an Atkins decision anymore; it's strictly on Shapiro and Ownership, whereas Atkins will have to assemble pieces for this team based on the outcome not of his making. In this sense you can't completely s*** on Atkins for the Vlad situation. Sometimes GM's have their hands tied in ways the general public can't see but take all the heat. 

[Laika]

Yeah I don't really blame anybody on the Blue Jays side for the Vlad situation. It doesn't seem like he has been willing to sign a reasonable extension at any time. 

[Sorrow]

I’ve heard rumblings that Guerrero has asked for closer to $600m. If he’s that high and won’t budge I’d be looking for a new 1B in someone like Alonso and moving Vladdy for the best return possible ideally MLB ready pieces.

[Jimcanuck]

59 minutes ago, Laika said:

It's a tough situation to handle, we can all agree on that. 

On paper is Vlad "worth" $420M or more? Based on his age and projections he might be by a $/WAR calculation. The market seems to say he is if you use the Soto contract as a measuring stick. However, by a ton of other precedents the market has said for a long time that he shouldn't be worth that much. 

Regardless, how many players like this are ever available, at all? 25/26 year olds with a 5+ WAR projection. He is young enough that you could give him a 13 year deal, suck for two years right away, and still have him for two cycles of competition in the remaining 11 years. 

How much do you just begrudgingly overpay to lock up the rare asset? 

It really depends on overall team outlook, otherwise you end up with the Angels/Trout scenario.

By the above consideration, I don't think a Vlad extension overpay is in the Jays interest.  Given his body, good chance Vlad is in serious decline when the Jays start a new competitive cycle (4-5 yrs?)

[glory]

Vlad was quoted as saying he thinks he’s the best hitter in baseball or something to that effect during the 2024 season. If Soto got $800M, then no chance Vlad is settling for half of that, especially if he thinks he can have another elite season in 2025 and enter the market next winter with both NY teams and Boston needing/wanting him. I don’t think there is a number that Shapiro will be comfortable with. Rogers is a different story but they’ve been pretty hands off with baseball stuff under Shapiro.

Trading Vlad if he can’t be extended and using that money to sign Alonso (even though he wouldn’t be my first choice) would be the first sign of a real plan by this regime in at least 12 months. I’ve said before you don’t have to rebuild but you do have to maximize assets that are not long term pieces. They did that with Teo, whether you agree or disagree with that trade. They didn’t view him as a long term piece and traded him for the best deal they could get and used the saved money to replace him. That should be done here if the two sides are that far off. 

 

 

 

[Bone R]

If Vladdy wants more than $500M, I think he needs to be traded. Guys with his body type don't age well either. By age 33-34 he'll be completely washed. 

[Jays24]

12 minutes ago, Bone R said:

If Vladdy wants more than $500M, I think he needs to be traded. Guys with his body type don't age well either. By age 33-34 he'll be completely washed. 

This is where I'm at.  I'm sure the Jays have a number they'll cutoff negotiations after.  Fans just want to see them employ some sort of plan, whether that's with or without Vlad.  Obviously I'd love if he could stay but letting him walk in free agency CANNOT be an option.  

[jaysblue]

14 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

This is where I'm at.  I'm sure the Jays have a number they'll cutoff negotiations after.  Fans just want to see them employ some sort of plan, whether that's with or without Vlad.  Obviously I'd love if he could stay but letting him walk in free agency CANNOT be an option.  

Yeah exactly.

Right now everything seems in limbo. I think we all want to see a plan, with or without Vlad, which we haven't seen yet. The sooner the better because the Jays cannot be waiting around for Vlad to make a decision until the end of January and not do anything to upgrade the club during that time. As well, the uncertainty definitely has had an impact signing some FA's this offseason. 

Letting him walk in free agency shouldn't be an option. Time to trade Vlad is now IMO. With Bo, you can wait and let him build up more value before the trade deadine. 

[The_DH]

The timing of a Vlad discussion with a Santander offer moves this up into the "possibly" sphere for me.  

[Abomination]

24 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

This is where I'm at.  I'm sure the Jays have a number they'll cutoff negotiations after.  Fans just want to see them employ some sort of plan, whether that's with or without Vlad.  Obviously I'd love if he could stay but letting him walk in free agency CANNOT be an option.  

The one thing we can't do again is what happened last off-season. If we extend Vladdy, we have some options in how to proceed. If we can't resign him, we need to either trade him or land a few big bats and go for it this year. We can't not extend him AND go into the season with the current roster construction.

[jaysblue]

20 minutes ago, Abomination said:

The one thing we can't do again is what happened last off-season. If we extend Vladdy, we have some options in how to proceed. If we can't resign him, we need to either trade him or land a few big bats and go for it this year. We can't not extend him AND go into the season with the current roster construction.

I agree, though I doubt this front office "goes all in" with Vlad for 2025 or else it would have already happened with some earlier offseason moves. They either trade him or if they don't, they'll likely keep the status quo in hopes they're in the WC hunt by July and reassess the situation at that time. 

They probably will sign a bunch of vets to one-year deals like last offseason and hope they catch lightning in a bottle with one or two of them. The number of quality FA's right now is very limited and I doubt they sign any of them. 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Sorrow said:

I’ve heard rumblings that Guerrero has asked for closer to $600m. If he’s that high and won’t budge I’d be looking for a new 1B in someone like Alonso and moving Vladdy for the best return possible ideally MLB ready pieces.

puke

[max silver]

2 hours ago, Sorrow said:

I’ve heard rumblings that Guerrero has asked for closer to $600m. If he’s that high and won’t budge I’d be looking for a new 1B in someone like Alonso and moving Vladdy for the best return possible ideally MLB ready pieces.

If there's any truth in that rumor the club should just move on from Vlad. It appears as though he's been asking for the moon throughout his time with the Blue Jays without ever really earning the type of money he's been asking for.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Yeah I don't really blame anybody on the Blue Jays side for the Vlad situation. It doesn't seem like he has been willing to sign a reasonable extension at any time. 

I agree with this.  His inconsistencies and immaturities certainly made the FO hesitate and it doesn't appear they pushed as hard as they could have for a long term extension - and rightfully so.  As someone who came from money, he had no reason to "accept" even a fair offer either.

I don't blame them for taking it year by year to see how this would playout.  Recognizing he's a unique talent, you have to think they were hoping he'd figure it out and become the backbone of the core.  That seems to have happened, as there's a good probability he's an elite hitter for the next 5-6 years.  Unfortunately, the timing sucks as Ohtani and Soto have changed the market.  

I suspect (hope?) they are having very serious conversations with Vlad right now to gauge how realistic is will be to extend him.  If they aren't close, he needs to be moved.  If they are close, then lets get it done.  I do hate the idea of heading into the season without this resolved.  I hope we aren't going to repeat what the Angels did with Ohtani.

[max silver]

1 minute ago, Brownie19 said:

I agree with this.  His inconsistencies and immaturities certainly made the FO hesitate and it doesn't appear they pushed as hard as they could have for a long term extension - and rightfully so.  As someone who came from money, he had no reason to "accept" even a fair offer either.

I don't blame them for taking it year by year to see how this would playout.  Recognizing he's a unique talent, you have to think they were hoping he'd figure it out and become the backbone of the core.  That seems to have happened, as there's a good probability he's an elite hitter for the next 5-6 years.  Unfortunately, the timing sucks as Ohtani and Soto have changed the market.  

I suspect (hope?) they are having very serious conversations with Vlad right now to gauge how realistic is will be to extend him.  If they aren't close, he needs to be moved.  If they are close, then lets get it done.  I do hate the idea of heading into the season without this resolved.  I hope we aren't going to repeat what the Angels did with Ohtani.

From what I can gather for the Angels to move Ohtani they would have needed to break a bunch of marketing related contracts which greatly complicated the situation.

[Nexii]

Watch Vlad put up a 9 WAR season and get 600m next year in FA

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, max silver said:

From what I can gather for the Angels to move Ohtani they would have needed to break a bunch of marketing related contracts which greatly complicated the situation.

Interesting - I never heard that.  It always felt like the Angels were just hoping to add around Trout/Ohtani in hopes that success would help "keep" Ohtani there.  If Vlad is telling the Jays to "build a winner around me and I'll consider staying" then I hope we cut bait.

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Watch Vlad put up a 9 WAR season and get 600m next year in FA

This requires defense and baserunning.  It's essentially impossible for Vlad to put up a 9 WAR season.

[SuperFuzzBigMuff]

1 hour ago, The_DH said:

The timing of a Vlad discussion with a Santander offer moves this up into the "possibly" sphere for me.  

There's no way Santander signs with the Blue Jays offer of $82 Million over 4 years. The guy hit 44 HRs and 102 RBIs last year. 

[BatFlip]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

This requires defense and baserunning.  It's essentially impossible for Vlad to put up a 9 WAR season.

Haha, yeah, I can't even imagine the offensive stats he'd need to put up for a 9 WAR season net of his awful defense and essentially league worst baserunning.

[max silver]

6 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Interesting - I never heard that.  It always felt like the Angels were just hoping to add around Trout/Ohtani in hopes that success would help "keep" Ohtani there.  If Vlad is telling the Jays to "build a winner around me and I'll consider staying" then I hope we cut bait.

It appears as though Vlad values getting paid above all else in terms of signing any kind of extension, but that's a bit of an assumption based on what we've heard publicly.

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, BatFlip said:

Haha, yeah, I can't even imagine the offensive stats he'd need to put up for a 9 WAR season net of his awful defense and essentially league worst baserunning.

I think he'd need to post Judge like numbers. He played at an 8 win pace over the last 5 months with a 181 wRC+ so 9 wins would take a step above that kind of offensive production. Maybe it's possible he produces more value at third base if he spends more time there which could help to bridge the gap towards an 8 win season.