General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[glory]

I'm not a big Atkins supporter, nor did I think the Jays would be as good as they've been this season, but the 2025 team more closely resembles 2021-23 than it does 2024 to this point, so the outlier in the last 5 years is the one bad season. Is it luck, coaching, talent....probably a mix of all of those things. The minor league side is looking better than it has in years as well, so it's overall a much more positive outlook than a few months ago. 

[John_Havok]

35 minutes ago, glory said:

I'm not a big Atkins supporter, nor did I think the Jays would be as good as they've been this season, but the 2025 team more closely resembles 2021-23 than it does 2024 to this point, so the outlier in the last 5 years is the one bad season. Is it luck, coaching, talent....probably a mix of all of those things. The minor league side is looking better than it has in years as well, so it's overall a much more positive outlook than a few months ago. 

To a certain extent, luck is just a word people use when what they really mean is variance. 

Like, Vlads performance year to year when you look at underlying numbers of EV, gb rate, fly balls etc... its fairly consistent. His results vary. So, people attribute down results to bad luck and good results to good luck. It's just an easier way to think about things. 

Prospect development is never linear...so is it good luck they have a bunch finally breaking out this season? Or just the results of the work they put in over the past few when they ran into problems. Is it good luck that there's just more this season? Or was it bad luck they didnt break out sooner?

What is luck anyways?

[Perfect Game]

16 hours ago, Doubleplay21 said:

Atkins off season transactions had little or no effect on Jays record this year. He looks like a genius because the emergence of Barger, Clement and Springer and Kirk.

So your saying that the stellar defense provided by Giminez & Straw hasn't had any effect on the record or the teams ability to finally win one run games?

[John_Havok]

Manoah starting rehab games on Monday! 30 day rehab timer will start then. (Main story on mlb.com by Theo DeRosa)

The right-hander will begin a rehab assignment Monday with the Rookie-level Florida Complex League Blue Jays, Schneider said. Manoah is scheduled to pitch at least two innings for Toronto’s FCL squad, which takes on the FCL Tigers at noon ET at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla.

That’s the plan, anyway. If Manoah is able to keep his pitch count low while remaining fresh on the mound, his outing could be even longer. At this point, whether he can get hitters out isn’t a concern.

Schneider said the righty will need “a normal Spring Training buildup” at the very least, estimating five or six rehab games at minimum.

“If he needs more, he needs more,” Schneider said. “I think we’re going to kind of gauge it after each one and see how he’s feeling.”

Manoah is still slated to return in mid-to-late August, providing his rehab starts go well. Schneider acknowledged it could be longer if Manoah seems to need more time in the Minors.

“It just depends on how he feels and how he’s pitching,” Schneider said.

 

Side note for anyone wondering how they'd get him more rehab time if he needs it after the 30 days is up... they'd just assign him to Buffalo, he still has 2 minor league option seasons left.

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

16 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Manoah starting rehab games on Monday! 30 day rehab timer will start then. (Main story on mlb.com by Theo DeRosa)

The right-hander will begin a rehab assignment Monday with the Rookie-level Florida Complex League Blue Jays, Schneider said. Manoah is scheduled to pitch at least two innings for Toronto’s FCL squad, which takes on the FCL Tigers at noon ET at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla.

That’s the plan, anyway. If Manoah is able to keep his pitch count low while remaining fresh on the mound, his outing could be even longer. At this point, whether he can get hitters out isn’t a concern.

Schneider said the righty will need “a normal Spring Training buildup” at the very least, estimating five or six rehab games at minimum.

“If he needs more, he needs more,” Schneider said. “I think we’re going to kind of gauge it after each one and see how he’s feeling.”

Manoah is still slated to return in mid-to-late August, providing his rehab starts go well. Schneider acknowledged it could be longer if Manoah seems to need more time in the Minors.

“It just depends on how he feels and how he’s pitching,” Schneider said.

 

Side note for anyone wondering how they'd get him more rehab time if he needs it after the 30 days is up... they'd just assign him to Buffalo, he still has 2 minor league option seasons left.

 

I'm excited to see how Manoah looks. The guy put up 6 fWAR in his first 300 MLB innings and then they brought in the pitch clock and he fell apart. Not sure if that's the only reason he lost it, but I'm sure it was a factor. I remember him being one of the slowest starters in the league in regards to time between pitches in 2022, so no surprise he struggled when the pitch clock was implemented in 2023. Hopefully he's gotten much leaner, and in better shape. At this point it'll be found money if he bounces back to being a stud starting pitcher. He's still young, fairly cheap and under control for 2 more seasons.

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I'm excited to see how Manoah looks. The guy put up 6 fWAR in his first 300 MLB innings and then they brought in the pitch clock and he fell apart. Not sure if that's the only reason he lost it, but I'm sure it was a factor. I remember him being one of the slowest starters in the league in regards to time between pitches in 2022, so no surprise he struggled when the pitch clock was implemented in 2023. Hopefully he's gotten much leaner, and in better shape. At this point it'll be found money if he bounces back to being a stud starting pitcher. He's still young, fairly cheap and under control for 2 more seasons.

Him coming back healthy and even performing as a #3 to replace Bassitt would be fantastic for the next 2 seasons. He likely won't move the needle this season unless he beasts, but I don't see that as a reasonable expectation. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

2 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Him coming back healthy and even performing as a #3 to replace Bassitt would be fantastic for the next 2 seasons. He likely won't move the needle this season unless he beasts, but I don't see that as a reasonable expectation. 

Agreed, I'd be surprised to see him with the Jays this season, especially since they likely add another starter at the deadline. If we do it'll likely because something really bad happened (tons of SP injuries) or something really good happened (like you said....he beasts).

[glory]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

To a certain extent, luck is just a word people use when what they really mean is variance. 

Like, Vlads performance year to year when you look at underlying numbers of EV, gb rate, fly balls etc... its fairly consistent. His results vary. So, people attribute down results to bad luck and good results to good luck. It's just an easier way to think about things. 

Prospect development is never linear...so is it good luck they have a bunch finally breaking out this season? Or just the results of the work they put in over the past few when they ran into problems. Is it good luck that there's just more this season? Or was it bad luck they didnt break out sooner?

What is luck anyways?

Luck in this case more so relates to their record in 1 run games, and things like that. The talent performing is more talent + what looks like a very tangible difference with coaching (Popkins). We will see how sustainable it is beyond this season.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Agreed, I'd be surprised to see him with the Jays this season, especially since they likely add another starter at the deadline. If we do it'll likely because something really bad happened (tons of SP injuries) or something really good happened (like you said....he beasts).

I suppose there's a non-zero chance they use him as a long man in the pen to piggy-back Lauer starts, but that feels like such a long shot and all kinds of things would have to go wrong in the bullpen for that to be an option.

Like... 5+ more guys on the IL level bad

[max silver]

4 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I'm excited to see how Manoah looks. The guy put up 6 fWAR in his first 300 MLB innings and then they brought in the pitch clock and he fell apart. Not sure if that's the only reason he lost it, but I'm sure it was a factor. I remember him being one of the slowest starters in the league in regards to time between pitches in 2022, so no surprise he struggled when the pitch clock was implemented in 2023. Hopefully he's gotten much leaner, and in better shape. At this point it'll be found money if he bounces back to being a stud starting pitcher. He's still young, fairly cheap and under control for 2 more seasons.

I fully believe an offseason shoulder injury was to blame for Manoah's 2023 woes. He featured dramatically reduced stuff and command right from pitch 1 in games that season. Being so out of shape certainly didn't help him when he got further into games but I don't think the pitch clock explains the regression of the quality of his pitches and the sudden inability to command them.

[max silver]

3 hours ago, glory said:

Luck in this case more so relates to their record in 1 run games, and things like that. The talent performing is more talent + what looks like a very tangible difference with coaching (Popkins). We will see how sustainable it is beyond this season.

I don't know if I'd say the 1 run game results are necessarily based on luck, but it's not something that you would expect to be sustainable in the long term.

[max silver]

9 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Jays are 4th in the AL East with a +21 run differential. 

Yankees: +117

Red Sox: +57

Rays: +65

This is entirely due to the 4-12/-45 run differential stretch of games in late April-early May. The Blue Jays have taken the lead in the AL East based on a phenomenal run of baseball since the team wide struggles ended. I've maintained all along that this outlier stretch of baseball was going to skew the run differential for the entirety of the season, and it paints a picture of a team that's being dramatically overproducing their expected win/loss differential based on a relatively short period where they were likely MLB's worst team.

From May 8-present the Blue Jays feature an MLB best 39-19 record, with a corresponding +60 run differential in these 58 games. It's reasonable to suggest that maybe the team has been a little fortunate to have enjoyed the type of record they have during this stretch of games, but it's not a giant fluke that the overall season's run differential would seem to suggest.

[mphenhef]

On 7/12/2025 at 3:47 PM, Eat My Shatkins said:

Agreed, I'd be surprised to see him with the Jays this season, especially since they likely add another starter at the deadline. If we do it'll likely because something really bad happened (tons of SP injuries) or something really good happened (like you said....he beasts).

Think back to 3 punchies Manoah in the all star game and how he might play up coming out of the pen perhaps for this year at least?

[polar bear]

On 7/12/2025 at 11:30 AM, John_Havok said:

To a certain extent, luck is just a word people use when what they really mean is variance. 

Like, Vlads performance year to year when you look at underlying numbers of EV, gb rate, fly balls etc... its fairly consistent. His results vary. So, people attribute down results to bad luck and good results to good luck. It's just an easier way to think about things. 

Prospect development is never linear...so is it good luck they have a bunch finally breaking out this season? Or just the results of the work they put in over the past few when they ran into problems. Is it good luck that there's just more this season? Or was it bad luck they didnt break out sooner?

What is luck anyways?

No such thing as luck.What you do creates what happens.

[Pendleton]

Jays signed lefty reliever Joe Mantiply and utility man Buddy Kennedy 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/07/blue-jays-sign-joe-mantiply-buddy-kennedy.html

[hanton]

Very interesting interview with Cal Raleigh on how he changed his swing (using the torpedo bat) forcing him to delay his swing translating to more power - getting the ball up in the air more often.

Increasing his FB rate by 6%

@27vladdyjr

[max silver]

13 hours ago, hanton said:

Very interesting interview with Cal Raleigh on how he changed his swing (using the torpedo bat) forcing him to delay his swing translating to more power - getting the ball up in the air more often.

Increasing his FB rate by 6%

@27vladdyjr

I wonder if George Springer made similar swing changes as well, albeit without the torpedo bat.

[Brownie19]

15 hours ago, hanton said:

Very interesting interview with Cal Raleigh on how he changed his swing (using the torpedo bat) forcing him to delay his swing translating to more power - getting the ball up in the air more often.

Increasing his FB rate by 6%

@27vladdyjr

The Just Baseball Show (@justbaseballshow) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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3,217 likes, 30 comments - justbaseballshow on July 14, 2025: "What swing changes have led to Cal Raleigh...

That's a good breakdown of the swing changes he's made...

 

 

[hanton]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

I wonder if George Springer made similar swing changes as well, albeit without the torpedo bat.

To my eye he looks (almost) the same, I put the below together you can see his current leg kick isn't as pronounced, bat is fairly vertical in both.   Any other changes and we'll need Pop to chime in

 

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, hanton said:

To my eye he looks (almost) the same, I put the below together you can see his current leg kick isn't as pronounced, bat is fairly vertical in both.   Any other changes and we'll need Pop to chime in

 

From what I've read on Springer, the new hitting coach just has him focused on trying to do damage instead of justvtrying to put everything in play. At least 1 Aswing per PA kind of mentality. George himself said he had let that kind of mindset go and has brought it back

I think it shows when ya look at his swing speed stats.. last season just over 1 in 5 swings was over 75mph, this season it's more than 1 in 3. 

[Spanky__99]

I see the Jays are just going to stay in turn as their next 5 are up coming this Friday. Bassitt/Lauer/Berrios against the Giants and Gausman/Scherzer and Bassitt against the Yankees.

[keggy]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

I see the Jays are just going to stay in turn as their next 5 are up coming this Friday. Bassitt/Lauer/Berrios against the Giants and Gausman/Scherzer and Bassitt against the Yankees.

Probably not a bad idea to hide Berrios from the Yankees after the absolute pounding they gave him last time. I would swap Scherzer and Lauer just to give the Yankees a different look, but Scherzer isn't a terrible choice in a pressure game.

[Brownie19]

Blue Jays Centre (@bluejayscentre) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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8,596 likes, 81 comments - bluejayscentre on June 24, 2025: "Alek Manoah has is on route! The former Cy...

I know it's super early to get excited, but this is certainly good news.

 

O

[John_Havok]

19 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Blue Jays Centre (@bluejayscentre) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

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8,596 likes, 81 comments - bluejayscentre on June 24, 2025: "Alek Manoah has is on route! The former Cy...

I know it's super early to get excited, but this is certainly good news.

 

O

That was from June 24th.

He started his rehab yesterday in the Complex league where he was scheduled to throw 2 innings or more depending on pitch count.

Actual results?

0.1 IP, 1 hit, 4 runs, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. 22 pitches, 10 strikes.

He faced 5 hitters. Single, wild pitch, walk, HBP, walked in a run, strikeout, then was lifted. Next guy threw a wild pitch allowing a run, walked a guy, then induced what should have been an inning-ending double play, but after getting the force at 2nd, a throwing error allowed the 3rd and 4th runs to score. 

All in all, kind of a cluster f*** of an inning, but at least he didnt hurt himself.

[Brownie19]

52 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

That was from June 24th.

He started his rehab yesterday in the Complex league where he was scheduled to throw 2 innings or more depending on pitch count.

Actual results?

0.1 IP, 1 hit, 4 runs, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. 22 pitches, 10 strikes.

He faced 5 hitters. Single, wild pitch, walk, HBP, walked in a run, strikeout, then was lifted. Next guy threw a wild pitch allowing a run, walked a guy, then induced what should have been an inning-ending double play, but after getting the force at 2nd, a throwing error allowed the 3rd and 4th runs to score. 

All in all, kind of a cluster f*** of an inning, but at least he didnt hurt himself.

[Omar]

Those FCL batters are real bad asses!  Good luck Alek. 

[max silver]

10 hours ago, John_Havok said:

That was from June 24th.

He started his rehab yesterday in the Complex league where he was scheduled to throw 2 innings or more depending on pitch count.

Actual results?

0.1 IP, 1 hit, 4 runs, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K. 22 pitches, 10 strikes.

He faced 5 hitters. Single, wild pitch, walk, HBP, walked in a run, strikeout, then was lifted. Next guy threw a wild pitch allowing a run, walked a guy, then induced what should have been an inning-ending double play, but after getting the force at 2nd, a throwing error allowed the 3rd and 4th runs to score. 

All in all, kind of a cluster f*** of an inning, but at least he didnt hurt himself.

Ugly results to be certain but one plus was that Alek's velo was solid. Command was awful to say the least and the slider stuff results look terrible as well. Hopefully the low slider stuff was more a result of lack of feel vs being a terrible pitch.

[Laika]

For comparison, these were his tjStuff+ numbers before surgery: 

 

 

[Laika]

Anyway, nice to see the velo back. 

I don't think the results or the ratings on the slider (5 pitches thrown) matter much at this point. Not expecting anything, anyway; this guy probably sucks. 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Anyway, nice to see the velo back. 

I don't think the results or the ratings on the slider (5 pitches thrown) matter much at this point. Not expecting anything, anyway; this guy probably sucks. 

I don't have the same feeling. I think we haven't seen a fully healthy Alek Manoah dating all the way back to the 2022 season. Even if he doesn't ever reach the previous heights as a top of the rotation arm I think he has a very good chance to at least be an effective back of the rotation starter.