General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Laika]

Crazy how quickly things change. 

Last year, the Franchise was at risk of contraction. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro looked like limp-dick bottom 10 execs. The team could not draft or develop. Many players on the team were in decline, or past their peak. Vlad and Bo were set to leave and the window was going to shut. There were no good prospects on the way. The only players under control would have been 2 WAR flawed players like the fat catcher Kirk and his swiss-cheese swinging centrefielder Varsho. The payroll was bloated short term, and perhaps the only good thing you could say about the organization was that they luckily were not saddled with lots of long term commitments. 

Fast-forward to June 2025. The team is cooking with gas. Bo is back. Vlad is here forever. Kirk is a top 5 C in baseball again. Barger is a stud. Clement is a divine defender. There are tons of positive developments on the farm and prospects rising the ladder. There are signs of good MLB development from guys like Barger, Lukes, Y-Rod. The org can produce an elite reliever at will - Little, Flu, Fisher. The veteran starting pitchers are still themselves. Ross Atkins is googling how many World Series he needs to win to get a statue. Connorp and Grant barely post. My erectile dysfunction is 20% better. 

Wild. 

[Brownie19]

Sounds like baseball to me.  How can you not be romantic about this game?

[Terminator]

32 minutes ago, Laika said:

Crazy how quickly things change. 

Last year, the Franchise was at risk of contraction. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro looked like limp-dick bottom 10 execs. The team could not draft or develop. Many players on the team were in decline, or past their peak. Vlad and Bo were set to leave and the window was going to shut. There were no good prospects on the way. The only players under control would have been 2 WAR flawed players like the fat catcher Kirk and his swiss-cheese swinging centrefielder Varsho. The payroll was bloated short term, and perhaps the only good thing you could say about the organization was that they luckily were not saddled with lots of long term commitments. 

Fast-forward to June 2025. The team is cooking with gas. Bo is back. Vlad is here forever. Kirk is a top 5 C in baseball again. Barger is a stud. Clement is a divine defender. There are tons of positive developments on the farm and prospects rising the ladder. There are signs of good MLB development from guys like Barger, Lukes, Y-Rod. The org can produce an elite reliever at will - Little, Flu, Fisher. The veteran starting pitchers are still themselves. Ross Atkins is googling how many World Series he needs to win to get a statue. My erectile dysfunction is 20% better. 

Wild. 

[Terminator]

 

[glory]

In the same way the 2022 Wild Card series forced a drastic change in the FO's thinking (arguably not in a good way), it's possible the 2024 season had the same type of impact. The worst bullpen in the history of the sport combined with a slap hitting singles offense guided by Donnie Baseball led to 2024's abysmal season, but it forced them to bring in a completely different hitting philosophy, and something has to have changed with the pitching development because the Jays haven't developed relievers in like 10 years. Now suddenly every AAA no name RP they call up is having success. Of course, SSS and all, but man things look so much better now than they did 6 weeks ago. 

[Brownie19]

58 minutes ago, glory said:

In the same way the 2022 Wild Card series forced a drastic change in the FO's thinking (arguably not in a good way), it's possible the 2024 season had the same type of impact. The worst bullpen in the history of the sport combined with a slap hitting singles offense guided by Donnie Baseball led to 2024's abysmal season, but it forced them to bring in a completely different hitting philosophy, and something has to have changed with the pitching development because the Jays haven't developed relievers in like 10 years. Now suddenly every AAA no name RP they call up is having success. Of course, SSS and all, but man things look so much better now than they did 6 weeks ago. 

Those hitting and pitching coaches such have a major impact!  Boss Ross strikes again.

Just remember that when you want to fire the same people next year or in 2027 when they magically forget how to coach, or bask in their success and fall way behind the rest of the league.

[glory]

43 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Those hitting and pitching coaches such have a major impact!  Boss Ross strikes again.

Just remember that when you want to fire the same people next year or in 2027 when they magically forget how to coach, or bask in their success and fall way behind the rest of the league.

I know "Donnie was a great hitting coach, it was the hitters that sucked" is the hill you want to die on and you have been consistent with that for years, but if you truly believe nothing has changed from a philosophy standpoint this season (on the hitting side) then we can just agree to disagree because I don't think you're ever changing your opinion on that. 

And I'm sure you'll bring it up again in 2027 or whenever the Jays aren't hitting as a team again, but not one person has said a hitting coach can turn bad hitters into good ones, simply that a good hitting coach/philosophy can point players with talent into a direction that could get them in better position to maximize that talent. The hitter still has to do the job, but if he's "fighting against his natural muscle memory" (quote about Barger from March 2025) due to adjustments suggested by the org, then you're probably not maximizing his chances of panning out. Mattingly was not that guy, and again if you believe he was, then we can agree to disagree on that. Also, whether the Jays continue to hit this well moving forward also remains to be seen. 

[AMS528]

41 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Those hitting and pitching coaches such have a major impact!  Boss Ross strikes again.

Just remember that when you want to fire the same people next year or in 2027 when they magically forget how to coach, or bask in their success and fall way behind the rest of the league.

I mean to what extent does it matter and not matter? Like we obviously don't mean hitting coaches shouldn't exist cause they're useless (unless you did mean that which I doubt).

So we're running on the assumption that they do matter at least a little. We know hitting philosophies broadly matter because the meta for hitting has changed significantly over the last decade and a half as hitters have adapted to more and more velocity from pitchers. 

Teams will have fluctuations but year to year of course, but it does seem to me to make sense that overall hitting philosophy being instilled by a team matters. And if you have one that is better suiting to hitting that existed in a low velocity era, than you may actually negatively impact your hitters. I think that's feasible, and would at least explain some the drastic change here along with some better luck this year. 

[AMS528]

I've been super negative on Atkins mostly because of the farm (free agency they've tried and he's obviously done well with trades).  My view was the failures last year were largely being caused by a lack of reinforcements from the farm arriving cause the major league talent on the whole wasn't that bad. The 2017-2022 drafts overall have been pretty rough, but nailing a couple of drafts (plus a player or two from those prior drafts like Barger eventually turning out) can change things quickly. It's early but the returns on the 2023 and 2024 drafts have a decent number of positives so far, plus some of the players acquired at the deadline.

I said this elsewhere but it's very nice to follow the minors and see good performances compared to how sad last years minor league follow was. They can even deal someone for a starter. 

[jaysblue]

Winning definitely makes things better and everyone to be happier around here! 

At the end of the day, the front office is responsible for the product on the field. Yes there is always bad luck or injuries that come into play. 

Jays have had a really nice stretch recently and its what they needed to get back into the thick of things. Let's hope it can continue through the end of June and into July. 

Bullpen has been vastly better in comparison to last season which I think has been the difference maker. Hoffman has been a real solid signing so far, Little has been huge, Yariel looks more and more comfortable in a bullpen role, and guys like Fluharty, Schultz, and Fisher from Buffalo have really done a solid job filling in for some of the injured pen arms. As for Lauer, he was definitely a nice minor league signing as a depth arm who has had success at the MLB level before. Still have guys like Yimi, Sandlin and Burr on the IL. Definitely a good problem to have.

As for the lineup, you can tell there has been a different philosophy this season. We're seeing Kirk have huge success offensively, Springer has been healthy and has his bounce back, Barger looks like he can be a 25-30 HR bat who can play 3B or a corner OF spot, Varsho was hitting for power when he was healthy, and guys like Lukes, and Straw have held their own filling in for some injured guys. 

Bo has been solid this season and healthy which is key, but definitely would love to see more from him offensively. Would be nice to see him returning to being a 120ish wRC+ bat. As for Vladdy, he's been solid as well, but for $500M you still expect way better numbers offensively.

Still some areas that the team could improve in, but overall they're in a really good spot and with another big addition or two at the trade deadline, this team looks capable of going on a deep Postseason run. 

[max silver]

21 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Winning definitely makes things better and everyone to be happier around here! 

At the end of the day, the front office is responsible for the product on the field. Yes there is always bad luck or injuries that come into play. 

Jays have had a really nice stretch recently and its what they needed to get back into the thick of things. Let's hope it can continue through the end of June and into July. 

Bullpen has been vastly better in comparison to last season which I think has been the difference maker. Hoffman has been a real solid signing so far, Little has been huge, Yariel looks more and more comfortable in a bullpen role, and guys like Fluharty, Schultz, and Fisher from Buffalo have really done a solid job filling in for some of the injured pen arms. As for Lauer, he was definitely a nice minor league signing as a depth arm who has had success at the MLB level before. Still have guys like Yimi, Sandlin and Burr on the IL. Definitely a good problem to have.

As for the lineup, you can tell there has been a different philosophy this season. We're seeing Kirk have huge success offensively, Springer has been healthy and has his bounce back, Barger looks like he can be a 25-30 HR bat who can play 3B or a corner OF spot, Varsho was hitting for power when he was healthy, and guys like Lukes, and Straw have held their own filling in for some injured guys. 

Bo has been solid this season and healthy which is key, but definitely would love to see more from him offensively. Would be nice to see him returning to being a 120ish wRC+ bat. As for Vladdy, he's been solid as well, but for $500M you still expect way better numbers offensively.

Still some areas that the team could improve in, but overall they're in a really good spot and with another big addition or two at the trade deadline, this team looks capable of going on a deep Postseason run. 

I'm very encouraged that the team has gone on a sustained run of success despite only having 3 effective starters, Varsho going back on the IL, receiving very little from Santander and Gimenez up to this point, Scherzer only pitching a handful of innings, Sandlin and Yimi each hitting the IL, Vlad not finding his power stroke yet etc. If/when this team gets to full strength I believe they will have a very good chance to challenge the Yankees for the division.

[Laika]

Vlad remains endlessly frustrating. Should be so much better. 

[Terminator]

Vlad is going to go on a second half heater like last year

I can feel it

[BatFlip]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Crazy how quickly things change. 

Last year, the Franchise was at risk of contraction. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro looked like limp-dick bottom 10 execs. The team could not draft or develop. Many players on the team were in decline, or past their peak. Vlad and Bo were set to leave and the window was going to shut. There were no good prospects on the way. The only players under control would have been 2 WAR flawed players like the fat catcher Kirk and his swiss-cheese swinging centrefielder Varsho. The payroll was bloated short term, and perhaps the only good thing you could say about the organization was that they luckily were not saddled with lots of long term commitments. 

Fast-forward to June 2025. The team is cooking with gas. Bo is back. Vlad is here forever. Kirk is a top 5 C in baseball again. Barger is a stud. Clement is a divine defender. There are tons of positive developments on the farm and prospects rising the ladder. There are signs of good MLB development from guys like Barger, Lukes, Y-Rod. The org can produce an elite reliever at will - Little, Flu, Fisher. The veteran starting pitchers are still themselves. Ross Atkins is googling how many World Series he needs to win to get a statue. Connorp and Grant barely post. My erectile dysfunction is 20% better. 

Wild. 

 

I imagine Ross Atkins' erectile dysfunction has improved by an even larger figure.

 

 

[Spanky__99]

Shulman just said on the tube that Turnbull will be opening the game tomorrow with Lauer being the bulk reliever and that the pitching stays on turn through Philly. Thought with off days Thursday and Monday they'd skip Francis, guess not.

[BatFlip]

21 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Shulman just said on the tube that Turnbull will be opening the game tomorrow with Lauer being the bulk reliever and that the pitching stays on turn through Philly. Thought with off days Thursday and Monday they'd skip Francis, guess not.

If those other starter arms were in their mid to late 20s, absolutely.  Probably smart to handle those elderly arms with oven mitts at this point in the season.

Who knows, Francis might surprise us......  But probably not.

 

[Terminator]

On 6/4/2025 at 10:11 AM, Terminator said:

Gimenez has an xwOBA of .323 this year.

In 2022, he had an xwOBA of .326 and put up a 6.1 WAR season.

He's underperforming his Batting Average right now by 66 points, almost entirely due to a .214 BABIP which is extremely low for a lefty with his speed.

He's going to be great.

Goddam I am on FIRE this year boys

[Terminator]

On 6/4/2025 at 10:11 AM, Terminator said:

Gimenez has an xwOBA of .323 this year.

In 2022, he had an xwOBA of .326 and put up a 6.1 WAR season.

He's underperforming his Batting Average right now by 66 points, almost entirely due to a .214 BABIP which is extremely low for a lefty with his speed.

He's going to be great.

 

Do I know ball or what

[Grant77]

In your crazy stat of the day, the difference between the Jays best defense and the Nationals worst defense is already over 50 runs. 

The Cardinals have the third best defense and it's only provided one third of the value that the Jays defense has (5.8 runs to 17.4).

[Spanky__99]

12 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

In your crazy stat of the day, the difference between the Jays best defense and the Nationals worst defense is already over 50 runs. 

The Cardinals have the third best defense and it's only provided one third of the value that the Jays defense has (5.8 runs to 17.4).

Yeah, it isn't close.

[BB17]

50 minutes ago, Terminator said:

 

Do I know ball or what

The same people saying Giminez was terrible and a horrible contract were complaining Kirk was bad offensively after April. I was pretty high on both coming into the season.

Reality is its a long season. Even as much as the Jays are playing really well right now it can evaporate in a hurry. Before the latest winning stretch there was a lot of win 3 games followed by losing 4 etc... The pitching still looks pretty weak to me and feels like the team needs at least 2 starters. 

[glory]

Gimenez is significantly underperforming his xwOBA and has a .233 BABIP (even after tonight's game). Not sure he has enough time to get a 4+ WAR this season after missing time due to injury, but I think he's going to be improve as long as he's healthy. What that looks like remains to be seen. 

[harvey16]

If you would of told me that Santander would be batting under .200 with a negative 0.9 War, that Varsho would have only played 1/3 of the teams games due to injury and that Vladdy would be on pace for 19 HRs and our closer would have an ERA close to 6, I would tell you that we must be in last place in the AL east, not holding down the 1st WC spot. Being 7 games over .500 is really impressive considering our big guns have underperformed badly. A resurgent Kirk, Bichette and Springer have really carried this team and Barger's breakout has been a pleasant suprise. Bullpen no names like Little, Fluarety and Fisher have really come out of nowhere as well to give the Jays one of the best BPs after a disastrous 2024.

[Grant77]

Will Robertson called up. No corresponding move yet, but maybe Lukes to the IL? That, or Rodent to AAA.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Grant77 said:

Will Robertson called up. No corresponding move yet, but maybe Lukes to the IL? That, or Rodent to AAA.

He would need to be added to the 40 man roster, though there are open spots. Maybe he's just coming up to the taxi squad which doesn't require him to be put on the 26 man roster?

[G-Snarls]

Two hottest teams in baseball over the last 10 games;:

NY Mets 

Toronto Blue Jays 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, G-Snarls said:

Two hottest teams in baeeball over the last l10 games;:

NY Mets 

Toronto Blue Jays 

What's this now?

[G-Snarls]

1 minute ago, Spanky__99 said:

What's this now?

Over the last 10 games the Jays and Mets are both 8-2, better than anyone else.

[Spanky__99]

5 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Over the last 10 games the Jays and Mets are both 8-2, better than anyone else.

Oh okay, the Jays are 22-10 in there last 32 games played.

[Laika]

Pretty sure they are #1 or tied for #1 in the last 30 games / days too