Potential Free Agents 2025

[glory]

Not signing a SP and expecting to even cosplay as a contender next season would be a mistake. The current rotation/depth over 162 in 2025 would get eaten alive. A lot of things have to go right and that's not even factoring health. They have to sign someone and push one of Yariel/Francis to the pen. If it's Snell, then so be it, but they need someone preferably at #3 level or better.

[Terminator]

1. Snell

2. Gausman

3. Bassitt

4. Berrios

5. Francis

LR- Yariel

AAA- Bloss, Macko

IL- Manoah, Tiedeman

 

Nice little 120 million dollar pitching staff we'd have there

[Brownie19]

The case for signing Snell is that the Jays do not have enough pitching depth with upside. There are almost zero such SP prospects in the system who could even possibly contribute in the next couple of years, other than Yesavage.

 

Used to have Tiedemann but realistically he has no chance of being a front line SP anymore. Perhaps more likely to be a 2 WAR RP than a 2 WAR SP!

Bloss, Macko are backend SP prospects. Honestly, you are happy if they are 1 WAR SP5 types. Expect SP6 results.

Y Rod and Francis aren't much more promising. SP4 production would be amazing. Expect SP5/SP6.

Any other SP prospect with upside in the system aside from the hopeless Tiedemann and this Yesavage guy are yearssssssssssss away.

 

On the other side of the ball the Jays may not have a ton of high upside bats either but they do have a bunch of depth from guys who could more realistically be 2 win players. Every guy we have seen this year could do that. Some could be a bit better. Sort of a sneaky underrated group of young bats tbh.

 

If they do not sign a guy like Snell the rotation probably has no viable playoff SP1 or even SP2. None of us would be very excited about rolling with the 2024 version of any of Gausman, Berrios, or Bassitt in game one of a playoff series.

 

Yeah - I think that's the play. We don't have anyone in the system and will need someone to replace Bassitt after next year. After you miss out on Soto, sign Snell, Teo and a bunch of short term, low cost bounce back candidates for the pen. See if you can trade for Brett Baty and call it and offseason.

Edited August 29, 2024 by Brownie19

[Terminator]

I'm glad I was able to get you guys to join me and BTS on Team Snell. This will go better than the last team I put together (Team Not Panicking Yet), surely.

[jaysblue]

I think there's definitely a case to be made that we need to aim high. We need impact players, not depth players (like a Max Kepler). The only place we need depth right now is in the bullpen...I think you try to fix that with several low cost high risk/reward types.

 

Let's sign Soto, Snell, Bregman and Santander. As well for the bullpen, sign Kenley Jansen and Jeff Hoffman.

[jaysblue]

1. Snell

2. Gausman

3. Bassitt

4. Berrios

5. Francis

LR- Yariel

AAA- Bloss, Macko

IL- Manoah, Tiedeman

 

Nice little 120 million dollar pitching staff we'd have there

 

Anyway you think the Jays could get both Snell and Santander?

[jaysblue]

I like Snell and think he would be a great fit here, but the numbers being thrown around are like 4-5 years worth $100M.

 

I'm all for it, but realistically the Jays don't have an unlimited payroll so that means Snell takes them out of the running for a big power bat like Santander or Alonso or even Teo. That means they have to likely dip down to the next tier of bats like Tyler O'Neill, Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto or even the awful Max Kepler. As well, they likely need TWO bats, not one! I wonder though if some posters like Brownie would be okay with that, since when mentioning those guys as a second bat to target, he went crazy! I'm not sure he would be able to cope with having two bats from that tier.

 

As for Snell, he's going to be 32 next season and the Jays will have 4 starting pitchers above 30 all making over $20M each lol. How did we ever get to that point?

 

Also, one thing concerning with Snell is the high BB rate. He posted a 4.95 BB/9 in 2023 and this year again its above 4. Otherwise, he's great but as he ages and if there is some regression, that high BB rate could hurt him more down the road in the latter part of his contract.

[Terminator]

Anyway you think the Jays could get both Snell and Santander?

 

Yeah, it's possible.

 

Their AAV would probably just inch below 50 mil which I think fits. This is a franchise that has a Top 5 payroll in MLB now, spends big on FAs every offseason, and we just reset the luxury tax penalties. The trade deadline was also pretty telling in that we kept everyone who could contribute next year, targeted AA and AAA players, and the overall message was that we are going for it in 2025. I don't think the team would take that direction if they didn't plan on spending this coming offseason.

 

On another note, if we are actually serious about Soto and pulled off a miracle to sign him, then all bets are off and we would probably just blow the payroll out altogether. There'd be no point in signing someone to the biggest contract of all-time and then pinching pennies everywhere else.

[Brownie19]

Anyway you think the Jays could get both Snell and Santander?

 

Santander is going to be an interesting case. Late bloomer. He was a good, not great bat in 2022-2023 (120 wRC+). He's been better this year (129 wRC+), with more ISO, but is outperforming his xwOBA (which he also did last year). Switch hitter is nice to have and he doesn't strikeout a ton for someone with his power. The underlying statcast numbers are pretty good, but he's a poor baserunner and poor defensively (should probably DH). Entering his age 30 season, is he going to get 4 years $80M? He kind of reminds me a bit of Nick Castellanos, who got 5 years $100M and he immediately turned into an overpaid pumpkin. If Tony is going to get $20M AAV (which he might when you see guys like LGJ and Soler get $14M AAV), then no, I don't think the Jays can get Tony and Snell - but maybe (might leave us extreme dumpster diving to fill the pen). I'm also not 100% sure they want Tony for 4 years $80M either.

 

Snell likely costs $25M AAV, so I think the Jays would be looking for a bat that costs between $10-$15M (if they have around $50M to spend). They might get Teo for 3 years $45M I guess - simply because he's 2 years older than Tony and likely a higher risk to decline.

Edited August 29, 2024 by Brownie19

[Terminator]

Let's sign Soto, Snell, Bregman and Santander. As well for the bullpen, sign Kenley Jansen and Jeff Hoffman.

 

I don't think we have enough money to sign all of those guys.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Sign Soto, extend Vladdy?

 

What's the price tag on that? Close to a billion? $800 million?

[Brownie19]

Sign Soto, extend Vladdy?

 

What's the price tag on that? Close to a billion? $800 million?

 

I'd guess $900M. Let's do it.

 

How's Vlad feel when Soto get's twice as much as he does?

[Pendleton]

Soto + Flaherty

 

Jacko is the same age as AJ Burnett when we signed him back in 2006 (55M/5 years was the largest contract signed by any FA pitcher in four years at the time)

[jaysblue]

Santander is going to be an interesting case. Late bloomer. He was a good, not great bat in 2022-2023 (120 wRC+). He's been better this year (129 wRC+), with more ISO, but is outperforming his xwOBA (which he also did last year). Switch hitter is nice to have and he doesn't strikeout a ton for someone with his power. The underlying statcast numbers are pretty good, but he's a poor baserunner and poor defensively (should probably DH). Entering his age 30 season, is he going to get 4 years $80M? He kind of reminds me a bit of Nick Castellanos, who got 5 years $100M and he immediately turned into an overpaid pumpkin. If Tony is going to get $20M AAV (which he might when you see guys like LGJ and Soler get $14M AAV), then no, I don't think the Jays can get Tony and Snell - but maybe (might leave us extreme dumpster diving to fill the pen). I'm also not 100% sure they want Tony for 4 years $80M either.

 

Snell likely costs $25M AAV, so I think the Jays would be looking for a bat that costs between $10-$15M (if they have around $50M to spend). They might get Teo for 3 years $45M I guess - simply because he's 2 years older than Tony and likely a higher risk to decline.

 

Yeah I'm not too crazy about Santander at 4 years/$80M either. He's an interesting player for reasons you mentioned. He doesn't strikeout a ton for someone with a lot of power and only hitting .234 haha and he is a switch hitter. Who knows what the market is like for corner OF/DH's this offseason.

 

I would actually prefer Teo if he doesn't require as many years and a bit less money, though I think Teo costs around $18-20M AAV on a multi-year deal. Both Teo and Santander have been pretty equal this season and there's not much of an age difference.

 

With Snell, you're hoping to get 3.5 to 4 WAR from him if he's healthy. If you can sign Snell to a short term deal like 3 years with a high AAV, would prefer that. If he's going to ask for five years, I wouldn't mind Eovaldi or bringing back Kikuchi as an alternative.

[jaysblue]

Sign Soto, extend Vladdy?

 

What's the price tag on that? Close to a billion? $800 million?

 

You're never going to get that opportunity signing two of the games youngest stars and having them for at least 5 to 6 years of their prime years together. If you're going to go all in, I would go big with both Soto and Vlad haha.

[jaysblue]

Soto + Flaherty

 

Jacko is the same age as AJ Burnett when we signed him back in 2006 (55M/5 years was the largest contract signed by any FA pitcher in four years at the time)

 

Yeah shocked nobody mentioned Flaherty's name as a possible candidate for the rotation. Is he for real now?

[Joltin Joe]

Free agency seems to be well stocked in bullpen arms this year. We could be in luck

[Brownie19]

Yeah shocked nobody mentioned Flaherty's name as a possible candidate for the rotation. Is he for real now?

 

It will be interesting to see how teams value him. He had injury concerns at the trade deadline, which may cost him a long term deal. That may actually make him a good target.

[John_Havok]

You're never going to get that opportunity signing two of the games youngest stars and having them for at least 5 to 6 years of their prime years together. If you're going to go all in, I would go big with both Soto and Vlad haha.

 

Just on age alone...like, that's a solid 5-7 years of two guys who should be 5-7 fWAR.

 

And I'd there's anything the Jays are flush with right now, it's capable young players that likely won't be stars, but won't be scrubs either.

 

I know it's kind of a pipe dream, but if there's a time to throw money around, it's this offseason.

[jaysblue]

Just on age alone...like, that's a solid 5-7 years of two guys who should be 5-7 fWAR.

 

And I'd there's anything the Jays are flush with right now, it's capable young players that likely won't be stars, but won't be scrubs either.

 

I know it's kind of a pipe dream, but if there's a time to throw money around, it's this offseason.

 

If they were willing to throw whatever money at Ohtani last winter, you would think they would go into this offseason trying to sign both Soto and Vladdy long term. Never going to have that opportunity again to lock up two of the premium young bats in the game.

 

Even when top players become FA's for the first time, they're either around 29 or 30.

 

Would definitely be a nice recovery from the Ohtani fiasco last winter. If the Jays could sign Soto and re-sign Vlad, maybe that's the pivot we were waiting for.

[max silver]

If they were willing to throw whatever money at Ohtani last winter, you would think they would go into this offseason trying to sign both Soto and Vladdy long term. Never going to have that opportunity again to lock up two of the premium young bats in the game.

 

Even when top players become FA's for the first time, they're either around 29 or 30.

 

Would definitely be a nice recovery from the Ohtani fiasco last winter. If the Jays could sign Soto and re-sign Vlad, maybe that's the pivot we were waiting for.

 

It stands to reason the team avoided handing out long term deals last offseason as they intended to take a run at Soto after this season is finished.

[Spanky99]

In 2023, his 124 wRC+ would have ranked third behind Brandon Belt (138 wRC+) and Bo Bichette (125 wRC+). His 2.8 fWAR would have ranked third as well. And his 24 HR's would have ranked second on the team, behind Vlad's 26.

 

Yeah he's s*** and his bat would have no place in this Jays lineup lol.

 

Aim higher, man.

[Spanky99]

Kepler projects for a 106 to 110 wRC+ and something like 1.5 to 2.5 WAR depending on playing time and the projection system you look at

 

Scaled to 450 PA his WAR over the last FIVE years is also essentially in that range ^ (2023 being the only exception where was slightly above that)

 

He's a s*** signing for $10M and it would be a lot like KK/IKF/Turner this last offseason where money is wasted on a crusty veteran

 

But if he is signing for less than that, then he's a fine piece to have. I am not sure he's even an upgrade on both of Loperfido/Barger -- same xwOBA as Barger this year while Loperfido probably brings more speed/defense to the table -- but if they trade some young players this offseason maybe Kepler fits. His age is concerning and the drop off in barrels and hard hit balls is also concerning, but his maxEV is still there and his defense still looks decent. I dunno. Personally, I would just give the roster spot to Loperfido/Barger and spend money elsewhere.

 

Yes, it's kind of obvious.

[Joltin Joe]

How much do you guys think Pivetta will sign for this winter?

[jaysblue]

How much do you guys think Pivetta will sign for this winter?

 

Maybe an AAV between $12-15M? Not sure how many years he gets, but max would be 2 to 3 maybe with opt outs.

 

His K/9 over the last two seasons has been intriguing and there is some maybe untapped potential still even if he's 31. Like if you sign him to be a No. 4 or 5 starter, he has the potential to be a decent mid-rotation guy with high K rates.

[Jonn]

Soto + Flaherty

 

Jays will end with Gregory Soto and Mason Fluharty don’t worry!

[Joltin Joe]

Maybe an AAV between $12-15M? Not sure how many years he gets, but max would be 2 to 3 maybe with opt outs.

 

His K/9 over the last two seasons has been intriguing and there is some maybe untapped potential still even if he's 31. Like if you sign him to be a No. 4 or 5 starter, he has the potential to be a decent mid-rotation guy with high K rates.

Around 15m is a little steep where I wanted to go. I'd offer Pivetta Kikuchi's 12 million though.

[jaysblue]

Around 15m is a little steep where I wanted to go. I'd offer Pivetta Kikuchi's 12 million though.

 

Yeah $15M would be the high end/max. Depends on the # of teams involved. As well, might have to pay more to get him to sign in Toronto. I would feel more comfortable getting Pivetta for around $11-12M for sure. If he's around $15M, would pass and aim higher.

 

If he's going to cost $15M or so, would rather spend a bit more to bring back Kikuchi if that's the case.

[Pendleton]

Yeah shocked nobody mentioned Flaherty's name as a possible candidate for the rotation. Is he for real now?

 

I have always been big on Flaherty, wanted to sign him last off season. He was looking like an future ace early in his career, had a stretch where his slider was on the very best pitches in baseball and was 4th in NL Cy Young voting at age 23. Always has had a nasty curveball as well.

 

Something happened to his slider effectiveness from 2020-2023 where it went from elite to average to downright bad last year, and his overall results followed just about the same path. No doubt some injuries factored in along the way but there may be an interesting case study into how trying to diversify his arsenal by introducing a cutter, may have actually managed to zap Flaherty's slider and fastball.

 

My point being, 2024 doesn't strike me as an random outlier from out of nowhere. This is the pitcher he was expected to become based on how he was tracking as a young SP. He got off track for three or four years after a pretty strong start to his career, bottomed out last season and now seems to have rediscovered what made him successful. I still don't think teams are going to be diving headfirst into giving him ace money, so there should be a chance at getting surplus value out of signing him (ie pay him #3 starter type money but he may keep pitching like a frontline guy).

[Brownie19]

I have always been big on Flaherty, wanted to sign him last off season. He was looking like an future ace early in his career, had a stretch where his slider was on the very best pitches in baseball and was 4th in NL Cy Young voting at age 23. Always has had a nasty curveball as well.

 

Something happened to his slider effectiveness from 2020-2023 where it went from elite to average to downright bad last year, and his overall results followed just about the same path. No doubt some injuries factored in along the way but there may be an interesting case study into how trying to diversify his arsenal by introducing a cutter, may have actually managed to zap Flaherty's slider and fastball.

 

My point being, 2024 doesn't strike me as an random outlier from out of nowhere. This is the pitcher he was expected to become based on how he was tracking as a young SP. He got off track for three or four years after a pretty strong start to his career, bottomed out last season and now seems to have rediscovered what made him successful. I still don't think teams are going to be diving headfirst into giving him ace money, so there should be a chance at getting surplus value out of signing him (ie pay him #3 starter type money but he may keep pitching like a frontline guy).

 

I think there's a chance this is true.