Jays in 2025

[BTS]

What does everyone think about the team's direction next year? As things stand we're probably looking at something like the following going into the offseason:

 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr.

2B/1B - Horwitz

3B/SS - Clement

SS - Bichette

CF - Varsho

LF/2B - Schneider

RF - Springer

3B/OF - Barger

----

2B/3B - Wagner

2B/3B - Martinez

OF/1B - Loperfido

C - ???

 

Gausman

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez

Bloss

 

Romano (if arm is intact)

Green

Swanson

Cabrera

Pop

Little

some guy

some other guy

 

That's not a good team. If they want to contend, they probably need:

 

- #1 catcher

- above-average everyday 3B

- monster corner OF bat

- ace

- mid rotation starter

- like 3-4 very good pen arms

 

I don't see how they do that in one offseason. I think we're in a really bad spot where management needs to win at all costs in 2025, but doesn't have the roster to do it. So it's going to be all-in (cash and prospects) to try to hail-mary a 90-win team and get new contracts from ownership.

[Slade]

That's a pretty bad team. Going to need some pretty massive upgrades to be competitive.

[L54]

Bring in new management, since bunch of guys to 1 yr deals to flip at the deadline hopefully with an eye to 2026

[BTS]

Bring in new management, since bunch of guys to 1 yr deals to flip at the deadline hopefully with an eye to 2026

 

I'd would be insane to let two guys on expiring contracts handle this coming offseason. They need, at the very least, a new head of baseball ops with a multi-year commitment and no do-or-die mandate for 2025.

[Krylian]

That's a pretty bad team. Going to need some pretty massive upgrades to be competitive.

 

...and that won't happen for 2025. Probably 2-3 years until this team sniffs the playoffs.

[BTS]

...and that won't happen for 2025. Probably 2-3 years until this team sniffs the playoffs.

 

Does management know that?

[hanton]

What does everyone think about the team's direction next year? As things stand we're probably looking at something like the following going into the offseason:

 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr.

2B/1B - Horwitz

3B/SS - Clement

SS - Bichette

CF - Varsho

LF/2B - Schneider

RF - Springer

3B/OF - Barger

----

2B/3B - Wagner

2B/3B - Martinez

OF/1B - Loperfido

C - ???

 

Gausman

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez

Bloss

 

Romano (if arm is intact)

Green

Swanson

Cabrera

Pop

Little

some guy

some other guy

 

That's not a good team. If they want to contend, they probably need:

 

- #1 catcher

- above-average everyday 3B

- monster corner OF bat

- ace

- mid rotation starter

- like 3-4 very good pen arms

 

I don't see how they do that in one offseason. I think we're in a really bad spot where management needs to win at all costs in 2025, but doesn't have the roster to do it. So it's going to be all-in (cash and prospects) to try to hail-mary a 90-win team and get new contracts from ownership.

 

1B sign Christian Walker

3B Vlady

SS Bo or Jimenez

C (Kirk) sign Higashioka/Diaz/Kelly

CF Varsho

RF Springer

LF Schnieder

2B Horwitz

DH Loperfido

[Terminator]

- #1 catcher

- above-average everyday 3B

- monster corner OF bat

- ace

- mid rotation starter

- like 3-4 very good pen arms

 

I don't see how they do that in one offseason. I think we're in a really bad spot where management needs to win at all costs in 2025, but doesn't have the roster to do it. So it's going to be all-in (cash and prospects) to try to hail-mary a 90-win team and get new contracts from ownership.

 

It's not good but I don't know that it's quite that dire. If they did everything on that list they would be pretty damn stacked. Do about half of it (or all of it halfway) and I think "the WC3 will be easy to make."

 

• I don't think we need a #1 Catcher. Kirk got off to a slow start but has been hitting fine since late April, his xstats are fine, and he has elite D to go with it. He also has the 25th highest Steamer600 WAR in baseball right now.
  
• 
  
• They need 2 or 3 bats and there are different ways to do it. Sign a Tier 2 FA like Bregman, Kim or Adames and then get a couple of decent bats in LF and DH.
  
• 
  
• The rotation definitely needs a solid starter but I'm not sure it needs an ace AND a mid rotation guy. If they got a #2 SP and bumped Bloss to AAA as depth that might be enough.
  
• 
  
• The bullpen is a mess but that is the easiest fix. Trade one or two of our bench guys (we have a bunch) and make 2 or 3 signings and it could be ok enough.
  
• 
  

 

Seems pretty daunting but the AAV room is there on the payroll I think. Even so, that's spending like 60 mil in AAV to only become wild card contenders. Not great.

[Brownie19]

Bring in new management, since bunch of guys to 1 yr deals to flip at the deadline hopefully with an eye to 2026

 

I think this is the right approach, although I'm doubtful we're going to have the pieces in place to win in 2026 either. We're probably unloading Bo, Gausman, Bassitt, Romano (if arm is intact) and possibly Varsho next year. Look for bounce back candidates or guys trying to rebuild value, sign them to short term deals, promise lots of playing time and then cash them over the next couple of years. Eye up 2027 and 2028 at the earliest to compete.

 

That said, I agree with Term's post above. I think you can piece together a team that could compete for a WC spot next year. But, I worry that's just a bandaid that will set the retool/rebuild back several years if you're going to keep all those pending FA's through the end of next year and lose them for nothing.

[L54]

I'd would be insane to let two guys on expiring contracts handle this coming offseason. They need, at the very least, a new head of baseball ops with a multi-year commitment and no do-or-die mandate for 2025.

 

It would be. Someone higher up has to recognize this. What’re you gonna do let them go AJ Preller this offseason in a desperation attempt to save their jobs!

[Brownie19]

It would be. Someone higher up has to recognize this. What’re you gonna do let them go AJ Preller this offseason in a desperation attempt to save their jobs!

 

connorp's favourite GM!

[BTS]

It's not good but I don't know that it's quite that dire. If they did everything on that list they would be pretty damn stacked. Do about half of it (or all of it halfway) and I think "the WC3 will be easy to make."

 

• I don't think we need a #1 Catcher. Kirk got off to a slow start but has been hitting fine since late April, his xstats are fine, and he has elite D to go with it. He also has the 25th highest Steamer600 WAR in baseball right now.
  
• 
  
• They need 2 or 3 bats and there are different ways to do it. Sign a Tier 2 FA like Bregman, Kim or Adames and then get a couple of decent bats in LF and DH.
  
• 
  
• The rotation definitely needs a solid starter but I'm not sure it needs an ace AND a mid rotation guy. If they got a #2 SP and bumped Bloss to AAA as depth that might be enough.
  
• 
  
• The bullpen is a mess but that is the easiest fix. Trade one or two of our bench guys (we have a bunch) and make 2 or 3 signings and it could be ok enough.
  
• 
  

 

Seems pretty daunting but the AAV room is there on the payroll I think. Even so, that's spending like 60 mil in AAV to only become wild card contenders. Not great.

 

I think the rotation is a major problem right now. For a team looking to contend, it's set up something like:

 

1. ???

2. Gausman (3-4 WAR projection)

3. ???

4. Bassitt (2-3 WAR projection)

5. Berrios (1-2 WAR projection)

----

Rodriguez (long-man and spot starter)

Bloss (AAA)

 

And then basically org depth beyond that. They kind of need to be in the mix for a Fried/Snell/Burnes if they want to take a shot at the playoffs. And then add depth. Then probably 2-3 bats of the caliber of Kim/Bregman/Adames/Alonso/Walker/Teo.

 

And then a a bullpen and legit platoon partner for Kirk.

 

It's about as clear a retool/rebuild situation as there is in baseball IMO.

[BTS]

It would be. Someone higher up has to recognize this. What’re you gonna do let them go AJ Preller this offseason in a desperation attempt to save their jobs!

 

I'm scared that's the actual plan. Because it's the only way to add the wins they need to get close to a WC spot in 2025.

[xposbrad]

Definitely a bottom 5 team with that roster. Think the Jays are going for a much lower payroll too next year, going to be pretty painful. At least Shatkins will be gone, and new management will hopefully stockpile the farm again.

[Carlos Danger]

It's not good but I don't know that it's quite that dire. If they did everything on that list they would be pretty damn stacked. Do about half of it (or all of it halfway) and I think "the WC3 will be easy to make."

 

• I don't think we need a #1 Catcher. Kirk got off to a slow start but has been hitting fine since late April, his xstats are fine, and he has elite D to go with it. He also has the 25th highest Steamer600 WAR in baseball right now.
  
• 
  
• They need 2 or 3 bats and there are different ways to do it. Sign a Tier 2 FA like Bregman, Kim or Adames and then get a couple of decent bats in LF and DH.
  
• 
  
• The rotation definitely needs a solid starter but I'm not sure it needs an ace AND a mid rotation guy. If they got a #2 SP and bumped Bloss to AAA as depth that might be enough.
  
• 
  
• The bullpen is a mess but that is the easiest fix. Trade one or two of our bench guys (we have a bunch) and make 2 or 3 signings and it could be ok enough.
  
• 
  

 

Seems pretty daunting but the AAV room is there on the payroll I think. Even so, that's spending like 60 mil in AAV to only become wild card contenders. Not great.

 

Kirk’s success is not sustainable with a heavy workload. I would like to see his total body of work this year, especially with Jansen gone, to see if he is a viable #1 catcher on a playoff team.

 

Once they go to ABS his value will be cut in half.

[Abomination]

What does everyone think about the team's direction next year? As things stand we're probably looking at something like the following going into the offseason:

 

C - Kirk

1B - Guerrero Jr.

2B/1B - Horwitz

3B/SS - Clement

SS - Bichette

CF - Varsho

LF/2B - Schneider

RF - Springer

3B/OF - Barger

----

2B/3B - Wagner

2B/3B - Martinez

OF/1B - Loperfido

C - ???

 

Gausman

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez

Bloss

 

Romano (if arm is intact)

Green

Swanson

Cabrera

Pop

Little

some guy

some other guy

 

That's not a good team. If they want to contend, they probably need:

 

- #1 catcher

- above-average everyday 3B

- monster corner OF bat

- ace

- mid rotation starter

- like 3-4 very good pen arms

 

I don't see how they do that in one offseason. I think we're in a really bad spot where management needs to win at all costs in 2025, but doesn't have the roster to do it. So it's going to be all-in (cash and prospects) to try to hail-mary a 90-win team and get new contracts from ownership.

 

Maybe sign Bregman, either Joc or Winker for DH, Gleyber and Jansen. Move Horwitz to LF. Pick up some decent RP wildcards like Graveman, Brebbia, and Minter. Grab whichever decent SP agrees to a short term deal. Probably unrealistic, but that should be a pretty good team.

 

I guess you could go the other way too, sign Bregman and Soto, then kick under a bunch of cans to figure out the rest of the team.

[Terminator]

I think the rotation is a major problem right now. For a team looking to contend, it's set up something like:

 

1. ???

2. Gausman (3-4 WAR projection)

3. ???

4. Bassitt (2-3 WAR projection)

5. Berrios (1-2 WAR projection)

----

Rodriguez (long-man and spot starter)

Bloss (AAA)

 

And then basically org depth beyond that. They kind of need to be in the mix for a Fried/Snell/Burnes if they want to take a shot at the playoffs. And then add depth. Then probably 2-3 bats of the caliber of Kim/Bregman/Adames/Alonso/Walker/Teo.

 

And then a a bullpen and legit platoon partner for Kirk.

 

It's about as clear a retool/rebuild situation as there is in baseball IMO.

 

Yeah but if they did that all of that they would be f***ing STACKED and could go toe to toe with the AL East.

 

These are the Steamer Projections. This lineup would be very very good.

C- Kirk 4 WAR

1B- Vlad 3.8 WAR

2B- Horwitz 3.3 WAR

3B- Bregman/Kim/Adames (3.4-3.8)

SS- Bo 3.3 WAR

LF- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR?

CF- Varsho 2.9 WAR

RF- Springer 2.4 WAR

DH- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? but DHing would revise it down

Bench- Is going to be an above average big league bench with all the buffalo boys.

 

For pitchers I'm not going to use Steamer200IP because it's stupid. None of the starters will hit 200 innings so I'll use your projections and some Steamer600 I revise down.

1. Snell/Fried/Burnes 3.5ish+ WAR

2. Gausman 3.5

3. ??? Just sign a guy with a pulse to give you 1 or 2 WAR and this rotation is Top 10ish

4. Bassitt 2.5

5. Berrios 1.5

Yariel projects great but he's hard to trust

Bloss should be ok depth

 

Then you say fix the bullpen and add a legitimate backup catcher and that team would be really damn good. Would compete for the AL East.

[Brownie19]

Yeah but if they did that all of that they would be f***ing STACKED and could go toe to toe with the AL East.

 

These are the Steamer Projections. This lineup would be very very good.

C- Kirk 4 WAR

1B- Vlad 3.8 WAR

2B- Horwitz 3.3 WAR

3B- Bregman/Kim/Adames (3.4-3.8)

SS- Bo 3.3 WAR

LF- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR?

CF- Varsho 2.9 WAR

RF- Springer 2.4 WAR

DH- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? but DHing would revise it down

Bench- Is going to be an above average big league bench with all the buffalo boys.

 

For pitchers I'm not going to use Steamer200IP because it's stupid. None of the starters will hit 200 innings so I'll use your projections and some Steamer600 I revise down.

1. Snell/Fried/Burnes 3.5ish+ WAR

2. Gausman 3.5

3. ??? Just sign a guy with a pulse to give you 1 or 2 WAR and this rotation is Top 10ish

4. Bassitt 2.5

5. Berrios 1.5

Yariel projects great but he's hard to trust

Bloss should be ok depth

 

Then you say fix the bullpen and add a legitimate backup catcher and that team would be really damn good. Would compete for the AL East.

 

Agreed. How much money does that take? LOL

[Terminator]

Agreed. How much money does that take? LOL

 

Lol it would be ridiculous but let's say they do some of that stuff.

 

-Sign Bregman tier 3B.

-Sign one of the pitchers.

-Spend 5 mil on a couple of relievers each. Trade a buffalo boy for another. Dumpster dive the rest to go with the slop we already have.

-Forego a LF signing and platoon Loferpido and Schneider in LF. Probably don't lose that much.

-Just roll with Kirk and dumpster dive the other C.

-Sign an okay DH.

 

That's probably a wild card contender.

 

I mean it's still insane because you are talking about spending big bucks just to get to wild card contender status. But I think that's where we're at.

[Terminator]

Kirk’s success is not sustainable with a heavy workload. I would like to see his total body of work this year, especially with Jansen gone, to see if he is a viable #1 catcher on a playoff team.

 

Once they go to ABS his value will be cut in half.

 

Yeah probably so but even if you play him full time and his play suffers he still puts up above average starting catcher value with the potential for more. Last year is a good example. His defense is really really good.

 

OR, just play him less and play your s***** backup more and you still come out with above average catcher play.

[Brownie19]

Yeah probably so but even if you play him full time and his play suffers he still puts up above average starting catcher value with the potential for more. Last year is a good example. His defense is really really good.

 

OR, just play him less and play your s***** backup more and you still come out with above average catcher play.

 

I'm still somewhat optimistic about his bat. Lots of catchers struggle with the bat early on while they are mastering the catching position. This guy hit at every level, including early success in the majors. I still remain hopeful there's a 100-110 wRC+ bat in there somewhere.

[Brownie19]

Lol it would be ridiculous but let's say they do some of that stuff.

 

-Sign Bregman tier 3B.

-Sign one of the pitchers.

-Spend 5 mil on a couple of relievers each. Trade a buffalo boy for another. Dumpster dive the rest to go with the slop we already have.

-Forego a LF signing and platoon Loferpido and Schneider in LF. Probably don't lose that much.

-Just roll with Kirk and dumpster dive the other C.

-Sign an okay DH.

 

That's probably a wild card contender.

 

I mean it's still insane because you are talking about spending big bucks just to get to wild card contender status. But I think that's where we're at.

 

Yeah - I think that's a possibility. I'm just worried about the value of the players they'll end up letting walk if they are actually "going for it" next year. It's a pretty long list.

 

That said, former baseball executive, David Samson was on the Blair/Barker show this evening did say "I'll tell you this, everyone is after this - you want the ring and the way you get the ring, is A - you've got to get to October, but then you've got to get lucky." This reinforces my belief in that. The playoffs are a coin flip most of the time.

 

He also said what I believe is true. "The best currency in baseball is overperforming young players (who aren't getting paid yet). It's what you need to win."

[Carlos Danger]

Maybe sign Bregman, either Joc or Winker for DH, Gleyber and Jansen. Move Horwitz to LF. Pick up some decent RP wildcards like Graveman, Brebbia, and Minter. Grab whichever decent SP agrees to a short term deal. Probably unrealistic, but that should be a pretty good team.

 

I guess you could go the other way too, sign Bregman and Soto, then kick under a bunch of cans to figure out the rest of the team.

 

Have you read about Winkers’s time in Seattle, and why they wanted him gone. I don’t want him anywhere around our impressionable youth.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah but if they did that all of that they would be f***ing STACKED and could go toe to toe with the AL East.

 

These are the Steamer Projections. This lineup would be very very good.

C- Kirk 4 WAR

1B- Vlad 3.8 WAR

2B- Horwitz 3.3 WAR

3B- Bregman/Kim/Adames (3.4-3.8)

SS- Bo 3.3 WAR

LF- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR?

CF- Varsho 2.9 WAR

RF- Springer 2.4 WAR

DH- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? but DHing would revise it down

Bench- Is going to be an above average big league bench with all the buffalo boys.

 

For pitchers I'm not going to use Steamer200IP because it's stupid. None of the starters will hit 200 innings so I'll use your projections and some Steamer600 I revise down.

1. Snell/Fried/Burnes 3.5ish+ WAR

2. Gausman 3.5

3. ??? Just sign a guy with a pulse to give you 1 or 2 WAR and this rotation is Top 10ish

4. Bassitt 2.5

5. Berrios 1.5

Yariel projects great but he's hard to trust

Bloss should be ok depth

 

Then you say fix the bullpen and add a legitimate backup catcher and that team would be really damn good. Would compete for the AL East.

 

Manoah had the internal brace procedure. Generally players come back earlier from that. May to early June isn't out of the question for Manoah.

[max silver]

Kirk’s success is not sustainable with a heavy workload. I would like to see his total body of work this year, especially with Jansen gone, to see if he is a viable #1 catcher on a playoff team.

 

Once they go to ABS his value will be cut in half.

 

Manfred has stated repeatedly that MLB will be going to a challenge system so Kirk will still have plenty of value. Even without framing he is still an above average defender as he’s posted positive values in throwing and blocking this season.

[max silver]

Manoah had the internal brace procedure. Generally players come back earlier from that. May to early June isn't out of the question for Manoah.

 

If I’m not mistaken it was a hybrid procedure with full Tommy John plus internal brace. I believe the rehab time is the same but the repaired tendon should have improved expected life span.

[Spanky99]

If I’m not mistaken it was a hybrid procedure with full Tommy John plus internal brace. I believe the rehab time is the same but the repaired tendon should have improved expected life span.

 

What does that even mean? He had the internal brace surgery, that's it. Isn't it one or the other?

[max silver]

What does that even mean? He had the internal brace surgery, that's it. Isn't it one or the other?

 

No I don’t think it’s necessarily one or the other in this case. Some players have a combined procedure where the ligament is still replaced but a brace is added to increase the strength of the repair. Alex has an expected 12-14 month recovery time just like regular Tommy John surgery.

[Stangstag]

I think the rotation is a major problem right now. For a team looking to contend, it's set up something like:

 

1. ???

2. Gausman (3-4 WAR projection)

3. ???

4. Bassitt (2-3 WAR projection)

5. Berrios (1-2 WAR projection)

----

Rodriguez (long-man and spot starter)

Bloss (AAA)

 

And then basically org depth beyond that. They kind of need to be in the mix for a Fried/Snell/Burnes if they want to take a shot at the playoffs. And then add depth. Then probably 2-3 bats of the caliber of Kim/Bregman/Adames/Alonso/Walker/Teo.

 

And then a a bullpen and legit platoon partner for Kirk.

 

It's about as clear a retool/rebuild situation as there is in baseball IMO.

 

Come on now

 

The team is not good (as-is) but they aren’t bad either. Middling. A couple shrewd signings and some guys having bounceback years, its not hard to see them as a playoff team.

 

Agree the bullpen looks like a mess, but we thought the bullpen looked good coming into this year. You really never know.

[Carlos Danger]

Come on now

 

The team is not good (as-is) but they aren’t bad either. Middling. A couple shrewd signings and some guys having bounceback years, its not hard to see them as a playoff team.

 

Agree the bullpen looks like a mess, but we thought the bullpen looked good coming into this year. You really never know.

 

I would wager that due to the age and milage of both Bassitt and Gausman, and the fact they have been remarkably healthy the past two-three years, that one is at least going to have an IL stint or regression. Just the way of SPs in that age range.