The Ship is Sinking

[wilko]

WAR isn’t everything Gurriel is leading Varsho in batting average by 50 points, by RBI by 20% in on base percentage and by the way as usual you’re wrong Gurriel and Moreno have 2.1 War, Varsho only has 1.9 War.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Varsho was under .200 by seasons end. He started off hot but he’s trended down since with 30 rbi in april and May but only 5 in June. It seems the league has figured him out. And considering the jays big issue is scoring Varsho isn’t helping much.

 

Keep defending Shatkins.

 

 

Take it easy gramps.

[connorp]

Wow evaluating a long term trade by using batting average, how very astute of you. You might not have realized this but Gurriel was a league average (at best) corner outfielder whose best ever season of 2 wins above replacement saw him match Varsho's worst ever season. Moreno still hasn't shown he can hit major league pitching with any kind of power outside of a few very short spurts which is likely why he was available for trade in the first place.

 

Well, I’ll just chime in again since you guys just can’t help trashing anyone with an opinion other than your “right one”. How much does a 4-5 WAR OF like Bryce Harper and command and how much would Varsho command? Are professional sports people not as smart as all you guys that use Fangraphs as your Bible. Are they stupid and just giving away $300m for nothing lol. Batting average is a lot more valuable than you think it is. Go do some studies on FA contracts and get back to us

[connorp]

There’s also no more “stupid old school” organizations like there was before. Some are different than others but there’s Ivy leaguers and guys running advanced stats at all of them. The market is the market. Team internal projections are clearly like nothing you’re reading on Fangraphs, so it’s better not to trash someone’s opinion because FG says so

[max silver]

Well, I’ll just chime in again since you guys just can’t help trashing anyone with an opinion other than your “right one”. How much does a 4-5 WAR OF like Bryce Harper and command and how much would Varsho command? Are professional sports people not as smart as all you guys that use Fangraphs as your Bible. Are they stupid and just giving away $300m for nothing lol. Batting average is a lot more valuable than you think it is. Go do some studies on FA contracts and get back to us

 

Batting average isn't useful on it's own, even you should able to recognize that as a fact. I don't see anyone comparing Bryce Harper, who has produced elite offensive seasons to Daulton Varsho anywhere in this conversation so I fail to see how he is remotely relevant to a discussion involving dudes like Gabriel Moreno, Daulton Varsho and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Pay attention to the actual topic of conversation and try to follow along.

[Eat My Shatkins]

You were named captain bud

 

That's because a certain group of boneheads couldn't differentiate between my defending one aspect of last off season from what my real stance on Atkins and the Jays front office is and then projected that I was some sort of huge Atkins defender. And with these latest comments by you that false projection just gets amplified.

 

Like seriously, how many f***ing times does one need to explain themselves before you figure it out?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Eat My Shatkins doesn't think the Jays signing a few handpicked FA's from last off season (like Teo or JDM for example) would have fixed their offense this year =/= EMS will run through a wall for Ross Atkins

 

lmao

 

Figure it out dummies

[BTS]

Like seriously, how many f***ing times does one need to explain themselves before you figure it out?

 

There is literally no number. You defended individual Atkins moves, therefore you have been labeled an Atkins defender until the end of time. The BJMB scarlet A.

[Eat My Shatkins]

There is literally no number. You defended individual Atkins moves, therefore you have been labeled an Atkins defender until the end of time. The BJMB scarlet A.

 

My username probably doesn't help

[connorp]

Batting average isn't useful on it's own, even you should able to recognize that as a fact. I don't see anyone comparing Bryce Harper, who has produced elite offensive seasons to Daulton Varsho anywhere in this conversation so I fail to see how he is remotely relevant to a discussion involving dudes like Gabriel Moreno, Daulton Varsho and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Pay attention to the actual topic of conversation and try to follow along.

 

Well, we can keep it to them, and I can’t use facts, but I’ll tell you in my opinion based on how FA contracts go, I don’t think Varsho would be looking at anything more than LG’s contract. Chapman did a little better but he demonstrated elite and then + offense upside that teams had to consider

[max silver]

Well, we can keep it to them, and I can’t use facts, but I’ll tell you in my opinion based on how FA contracts go, I don’t think Varsho would be looking at anything more than LG’s contract. Chapman did a little better but he demonstrated elite and then + offense upside that teams had to consider

 

Chapman is actually a very good comparison for Varsho when you think about it. Both of them are essentially about 4 win players who primarily derive their value from elite defense combined with approximately league average or slightly above bats.

[jaysblue]

Yeah right says the guy who loved the Gurriel and Moreno for Varsho trade, how’s that working out for you Spanky? Do you still feel the Blue Jays won that trade too?

 

You keep defending Shatkins

 

The longer you do it the dumber you look

 

The trade actually wasn't that bad. Looks like Varsho should easily be a 3-4 WAR outfielder this season and there is still the potential for more. Will give Atkins some credit for the early returns thus far.

 

I understand Moreno has been awful this season, but he's still just 24 so writing him off this early is pretty ridiculous if you ask me.

 

Gurriel isn't anything special. He's just a 1-2 WAR corner OF which are always easy to acquire via free agency.

[Omar]

Oh man...

 

Someone this out of touch shouldn't be allowed to post here unless he's here to shut up and learn something.

 

Sportsnet comments section is more your speed.

 

Last year a lot of posters on this board were lamenting the Varsho trade. In fact, I can count on one hand the number of posters who said to be patient and not judge Varsho on a few months of data.

 

Perhaps consider this before chasing posters away from this forum.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Last year a lot of posters on this board were lamenting the Varsho trade. In fact, I can count on one hand the number of posters who said to be patient and not judge Varsho on a few months of data.

 

Perhaps consider this before chasing posters away from this forum.

 

Well of course, Varsho had a rough year at the plate in 2023. Meanwhile the Dbacks went on a run with Lourdes and Moreno. I was one of the few preaching patience. I mean,, even with his 85 wRC+ he was still a 2+ fWAR OFer.

 

Now that he's bounced back it's definitely not the time to continue lamenting that trade, which is what that poster was doing and using batting average of all things to justify it.

 

EDIT: but yeah, I guess I didn't have to be a total ******* about it

[jaysblue]

Well of course, Varsho had a rough year at the plate in 2023. Meanwhile the Dbacks went on a run with Lourdes and Moreno. I was one of the few preaching patience. I mean,, even with his 85 wRC+ he was still a 2+ fWAR OFer.

 

Now that he's bounced back it's definitely not the time to continue lamenting that trade, which is what that poster was doing and using batting average of all things to justify it.

 

EDIT: but yeah, I guess I didn't have to be a total ******* about it

 

Preaching patience also works the other way as well with Moreno. He's still only 24 so even with some of his offensive struggles earlier on this season, he is far from being a finished product.

 

Varsho offensively I think still has some more untapped potential. He should be good for 3-4 WAR this season when all is said and done which is fantastic. He's an easy player to root and cheer for as well.

[BigCecil]

Its possible to like Varsho a lot and still think the deal was an over pay. I feel that from the time of deal view. How big of an over pay is a fair debate.

 

Catchers sometimes mature at the plate slower with all their other duties. Jano was 27 before he had his first big above avg bat season, as an example. Patience is required.

 

Moreno now 24 won a Gold Glove on the back of his DRS in '23 but he is still a work in progress. He just barely out WAR'ed Varsho in 23 (aside from one LGJ season in the deal)and this year the WAR delta as of now is 1.1 to 1.8 with half the season left. Moreno battled injuries early in '24. Moreno could still blossom or flop. Varsho could be an 80 bat in the 2nd half of '24. Lots can happen.

 

This deal gets more real for us as Jano walks and we are left with Kirk in '25. Jano should have been extended.

 

Moreno is 4 years younger than Varsho and under AZ two years after Varsho likely walks from the Jays. The control, prospect standing, premium position and age spread has value at the time of a deal.

 

Best time to evaluate a deal is at the time its made. Or way down the road and are a long way from that point in time for a solid evaluation.

[saskjayfan]

Its possible to like Varsho a lot and still think the deal was an over pay. I feel that from the time of deal view. How big of an over pay is a fair debate.

 

Catchers sometimes mature at the plate slower with all their other duties. Jano was 27 before he had his first big above avg bat season, as an example. Patience is required.

 

Moreno now 24 won a Gold Glove on the back of his DRS in '23 but he is still a work in progress. He just barely out WAR'ed Varsho in 23 (aside from one LGJ season in the deal)and this year the WAR delta as of now is 1.1 to 1.8 with half the season left. Moreno battled injuries early in '24. Moreno could still blossom or flop. Varsho could be an 80 bat in the 2nd half of '24. Lots can happen.

 

This deal gets more real for us as Jano walks and we are left with Kirk in '25. Jano should have been extended.

 

Moreno is 4 years younger than Varsho and under AZ two years after Varsho likely walks from the Jays. The control, prospect standing, premium position and age spread has value at the time of a deal.

 

Best time to evaluate a deal is at the time its made. Or way down the road and are a long way from that point in time for a solid evaluation.

 

How Moreno does in his career is immaterial. It's how he was viewed at the time of the trade. He was a top 5 prospect and his prospect capital was very high. Did we get enough in Varsho? Who knows who else we could have gotten. Varsho is an incredible defender and baserunner. He's a fine player at the bottom of your order who's going to hit some bombs. I'm so over even discussing this trade. Atkins failure wasn't the trade itself, it was thinking Varsho was a middle of the order bat and not addressing this roster accordingly. Varsho is a 3 to 3.5 win player. That's really good. He just isn't an offensive player.

[Laika]

Who gives a s*** about Gabriel Moreno anymore? He barely has more WAR on the board right now through 61 games than Kirk has provided in 43 games.

 

The best evidence of what he was worth at the time of the trade is the trade itself. Evidently, the industry did not think he was actually an elite prospect. We can see why - he doesn't actually have an amazing tool package.

 

He's a nice little catcher to have while he is cheap and he has a chance to develop into an above average player. He can put the bat on the ball and he is a solid defender. But it has been very disappointing to see the negative baserunning right away and the consistently poor ISO and barrel rates.

 

Honestly, he's shockingly similar to the player Kirk has declined into. That's kind of funny isn't it.

 

Varsho is just a flat-out better baseball player at the moment despite his obvious flaws at the dish. And he has a more exciting tool package, obviously.

 

y'all boring and dumb

[max silver]

How Moreno does in his career is immaterial. It's how he was viewed at the time of the trade. He was a top 5 prospect and his prospect capital was very high. Did we get enough in Varsho? Who knows who else we could have gotten. Varsho is an incredible defender and baserunner. He's a fine player at the bottom of your order who's going to hit some bombs. I'm so over even discussing this trade. Atkins failure wasn't the trade itself, it was thinking Varsho was a middle of the order bat and not addressing this roster accordingly. Varsho is a 3 to 3.5 win player. That's really good. He just isn't an offensive player.

 

That's all well and good that Moreno was a top 5 prospect in online publications, but ultimately that's immaterial when it comes down to how other front offices viewed his actual trade value. He had a very serious question mark in the lack of power in the bat that he still hasn't put to rest and this is the primary factor that's limited his offensive output. It's not an issue in this neck of the woods but there are still posters in other online discussion sections that view the guy as some sort of generational catching prospect when he's proven that he's nothing of the sort up to this point.

[jaysblue]

Would have been nice if the Jays could have got a better player than Varsho for Moreno, but what's done is done now. Varsho is definitely a nice player and has some offensive upside that could still be unlocked. We don't know how the rest of MLB teams valued Moreno but I do think out of all 3 Jays catchers, teams valued Moreno more than let's say Jansen and Kirk. As well, at the time you can't blame the Jays for keeping Kirk/Jansen who were both proven commodities over Moreno. It's a moot point. Overall, the trade has looked good so far even if Varsho doesn't take that next step offensively.

 

Sucks that Kirk turned into a pumpkin, but he still could provide value defensively even with his awful bat. He does need another catcher to pair with since I don't think he could hold up and catch 130-140 games per season. After Jansen leaves, the catching situation doesn't look that promising.

 

I don't think Moreno is toast and it's ridiculous to suggest that given his age. He still could blossom into a very solid offensive player. I bet if Moreno was still on this Jays team, patience would be still be preached with him. But since he was traded and with Arizona, he's now completely a total bust.

[max silver]

Would have been nice if the Jays could have got a better player than Varsho for Moreno, but what's done is done now. Varsho is definitely a nice player and has some offensive upside that could still be unlocked. We don't know how the rest of MLB teams valued Moreno but I do think out of all 3 Jays catchers, teams valued Moreno more than let's say Jansen and Kirk. As well, at the time you can't blame the Jays for keeping Kirk/Jansen who were both proven commodities over Moreno. It's a moot point. Overall, the trade has looked good so far even if Varsho doesn't take that next step offensively.

 

Sucks that Kirk turned into a pumpkin, but he still could provide value defensively even with his awful bat. He does need another catcher to pair with since I don't think he could hold up and catch 130-140 games per season. After Jansen leaves, the catching situation doesn't look that promising.

 

I don't think Moreno is toast and it's ridiculous to suggest that given his age. He still could blossom into a very solid offensive player. I bet if Moreno was still on this Jays team, patience would be still be preached with him. But since he was traded and with Arizona, he's now completely a total bust.

 

Come on man, nobody has said Moreno is a total bust. He just hasn't developed offensively to anything more than a league average bat at this point and it's far from a given he'll ever be more than that. His underlying metrics all point to a decidedly average bat at best and unless he makes tangible changes to his overall batted ball profile he's not going to be more than that.

[Omar]

Come on man, nobody has said Moreno is a total bust. He just hasn't developed offensively to anything more than a league average bat at this point and it's far from a given he'll ever be more than that. His underlying metrics all point to a decidedly average bat at best and unless he makes tangible changes to his overall batted ball profile he's not going to be more than that.

 

He's had 600 career ab's which is nothing. Yeah the bat has been disappointing but with a league average bat and great defense as a catcher he can play for a long time and will be coveted by many teams. Wait and see.

[Brownie19]

That's all well and good that Moreno was a top 5 prospect in online publications, but ultimately that's immaterial when it comes down to how other front offices viewed his actual trade value. He had a very serious question mark in the lack of power in the bat that he still hasn't put to rest and this is the primary factor that's limited his offensive output. It's not an issue in this neck of the woods but there are still posters in other online discussion sections that view the guy as some sort of generational catching prospect when he's proven that he's nothing of the sort up to this point.

 

I love talking about Moreno! I still believe the thought process was that while Moreno may ultimately become a star (or settle in as just a good player), the Jays likely felt it would take him 4-5 years to reach that potential, as catchers often take awhile to develop, especially offensively. That didn't align with the primary contending window. The Jays needed a longer term solution in CF and in the short term, wanted to improve the OF defense, without sacrificing all the offense. Varsho fit that well. Young player who was entering his prime, had ML success already and was someone they probably saw offensive upside in as he approached age 27-29. He's disappointed offensively and may ultimately be a 100 wRC+ hitter instead of a 115 wRC+ hitter.

 

I still think Moreno will grow into his offensive game. I think he could develop into a Jason Kendell type catcher (sorry for using comparisons Max - don't get triggered)

[max silver]

I love talking about Moreno! I still believe the thought process was that while Moreno may ultimately become a star (or settle in as just a good player), the Jays likely felt it would take him 4-5 years to reach that potential, as catchers often take awhile to develop, especially offensively. That didn't align with the primary contending window. The Jays needed a longer term solution in CF and in the short term, wanted to improve the OF defense, without sacrificing all the offense. Varsho fit that well. Young player who was entering his prime, had ML success already and was someone they probably saw offensive upside in as he approached age 27-29. He's disappointed offensively and may ultimately be a 100 wRC+ hitter instead of a 115 wRC+ hitter.

 

I still think Moreno will grow into his offensive game. I think he could develop into a Jason Kendell type catcher (sorry for using comparisons Max - don't get triggered)

 

I have no issues with appropriate comparisons and Kendell seems perfectly apt as a high average low power output type of performer. I've seen too many online who act like he's destined to become the next Pudge Rodriguez and destined for the hall of fame and he needs to make some serious improvements to even become a solidly above average overall contributor.

[Brownie19]

So if Moreno was on the Jays, some think fans would be preaching patience (and not worried about him). Are fans currently preaching patience with Kirk? I don't see many to be honest. I think most believe this is who he is, it's underwhelming and they are disappointed.

 

I think that's a bit of a mistake to be honest. Kirk's been a better bat than Moreno throughout his career, both in terms of his peak and overall statistics. He's also been as valuable defensively (albeit they go about it with different skills) and he's got twice the career WAR as Moreno (although he is 1 year older). I think the perception on Kirk is MUCH worse than it is for Moreno simply because of what we saw so early in his career. He burst onto the scene with the bat and everything since then feels like a massive letdown. His body type also raises questions - whether that's fair or not (ask the Molina brothers how long they can catch while being short and round). As for his stamina, there were only 8 catchers to catch more than 108 games last year. Just 13 that caught more than 100 games. Kirk caught 93 games last year. Catching seems to be headed towards the NHL goalie model where you need 2 capable ones, so I'm not sure it's a massive concern that he can't catch 130+ games a year, because nobody does that anymore.

 

Kirk is essentially where Moreno is. Young catcher who's performing well defensively. You hope his bat continues to develop and improve as he settles into the later half of his 20's, which is a very common pattern for catchers.

[glory]

Worst part of the Varsho trade was putting him in LF for two years. You don’t pay a premium on defense only to use it in a much less important position. You wouldn’t trade your best prospect for prime Andrelton Simmons to put him at 2B/3B.

 

Other than that, I’m surprised this trade is still a talking point.

[Brownie19]

Worst part of the Varsho trade was putting him in LF for two years. You don’t pay a premium on defense only to use it in a much less important position. You wouldn’t trade your best prospect for prime Andrelton Simmons to put him at 2B/3B.

 

Other than that, I’m surprised this trade is still a talking point.

 

I agree with this. Although you would put Simmons at 2nd/3rd if you also had Ozzie Smith on the team. We have Ozzie Smith - his name is KK. In a vacuum, we got great value from KK last year and it was more defendable to play Varsho in LF. I had strong worries KK could repeat with the bat this year. I think it was time to move on (although I love the guy as a player) and let Varsho play CF full time. We may see that in the 2nd half of this season and hopefully moving forward.

[max silver]

I agree with this. Although you would put Simmons at 2nd/3rd if you also had Ozzie Smith on the team. We have Ozzie Smith - his name is KK. In a vacuum, we got great value from KK last year and it was more defendable to play Varsho in LF. I had strong worries KK could repeat with the bat this year. I think it was time to move on (although I love the guy as a player) and let Varsho play CF full time. We may see that in the 2nd half of this season and hopefully moving forward.

 

I think even if the team decides to take a shot to compete in the second half the smart move is still to move KK out to open up center field for Varsho. Schneider has proven himself to be a capable enough defender in his own right that he should be playing nearly every day, and the recent emergence of Horwitz as a passable second baseman has decreased the availability of starts at second base.

[keggy]

People sketching out the rest of Moreno's career based on a few hundred MLB PA are making decisions based on emotion.

[Laika]

People sketching out the rest of Moreno's career based on a few hundred MLB PA are making decisions based on emotion.

 

But nobody is even doing that

 

I feel like the opposite is true, anyway. People felt mad about the trade at the time and continue to let that negative emotion dictate how they see and define Varsho and Moreno.

[G-Snarls]

Who gives a s*** about Gabriel Moreno anymore? He barely has more WAR on the board right now through 61 games than Kirk has provided in 43 games.

 

The best evidence of what he was worth at the time of the trade is the trade itself. Evidently, the industry did not think he was actually an elite prospect. We can see why - he doesn't actually have an amazing tool package.

 

He's a nice little catcher to have while he is cheap and he has a chance to develop into an above average player. He can put the bat on the ball and he is a solid defender. But it has been very disappointing to see the negative baserunning right away and the consistently poor ISO and barrel rates.

 

Honestly, he's shockingly similar to the player Kirk has declined into. That's kind of funny isn't it.

 

Varsho is just a flat-out better baseball player at the moment despite his obvious flaws at the dish. And he has a more exciting tool package, obviously.

 

y'all boring and dumb

 

One sure LOOKS more athletic but yes the results are oddly similar

 

Moreno 2024 .230/.313/.346

wOBA .293