The Ship is Sinking

[Masterbather]

There were three 100+ win teams last year and one 99 win team.

 

Those four teams combined for one playoff win.

 

Meanwhile an 84 win team came one win from winning the whole thing

 

Beisbol is right

84 win team with Gallen and Kelly at the front of the rotation, Ginkel and Sewald at the back and Carroll, Marte, Walker in the lineup. They had real talent.

[Brownie19]

Man. So brutal. The Vlad/Bo collapse dominates but Summer of 2021 it looked so good...

 

Moreno - hitting .388 .430 .620 and looked to be another generational hitter

Austin - thought of as having first overall talent and had .420 on base percentage

Manoah - dominating his first 10 starts in the majors

Orelvis - hitting great as a teenager... like .290 with power for a while

Teo - looking like Edwin with a tad fewer walks. Hitting near .300 with massive power

Guerrero - contending for triple crown at 22

 

I'm repeating was said kind of, but these guys looked so good up through late July 2021... and still great until mid April 2022. Then every player went negative within 1 year

 

Guerrero - not a triple crown guy, but a 1 WAR guy

Teoscar - not a .300 hitter but .250 which is big difference with his walk rate

Kirk - not edgar martinez but more like John McDonald or something

Bo - Never able to control the strike zone so is less than useless in a slump

 

God - it's so true. It's so sad!

[Terminator]

84 win team with Gallen and Kelly at the front of the rotation, Ginkel and Sewald at the back and Carroll, Marte, Walker in the lineup. They had real talent.

 

Let's not get started with this "the D-Backs were actually good" s*** again lol

[Stangstag]

There were three 100+ win teams last year and one 99 win team.

 

Those four teams combined for one playoff win.

 

Meanwhile an 84 win team came one win from winning the whole thing

 

Beisbol is right

 

Also the team that DID win it all was 1 loss away from missing the postseason altogether

 

Beisbol

[Dick_Pole]

My favorite part is when they cry "they did nothing to address the hitting"

 

I always respond "you mean other than try to bring in the only two elite bats that were available, including throwing a meager $700 million at Ohtani? There was no one else out there"

 

Then you get the "they should have signed *same handful of players*"

 

Meanwhile at least half of those *handful of players* suck balls right now and wouldn't have helped at all but would have cost more money and term.

 

So now as the season wears on that *handful of players* they like to bring up keeps getting smaller and smaller as they use hind sight to see which of them are actually hitting this year.

 

At the transactional level, Atkins is fine. Free agents (or avoiding bad contracts) and trades generally work out well. The problem is a complete lack of ability to develop talent internally. That hamstrings you in what you can do at the MLB level. And fans lash out as how you described because of the frustration with the team failing. Orioles keep on bringing up some new guy who rakes nearly every week. Pretty easy to construct a strong roster when that happens.

 

What do the Jays have? Davis Schneider and a couple of other jobbers that the forum goes nuts over. Their ceilings wouldn't even get them in the conversation for best five players on the Braves' roster.

 

It's not like the weak 2023-24 offseason came as a surprise. Every FO knew that coming into it. I don't blame Atkins for not making major moves. I blame him for coming into the offseason with a cupboard so barren that moves were desperately needed meanwhile knowing that the grocery store would be empty as well. Fans are rightfully angry even if by the time December 2023 came around it was clear that the FO had to mostly stand pat instead of digging an even bigger hole for itself with crippling bad moves.

[Masterbather]

Let's not get started with this "the D-Backs were actually good" s*** again lol

 

Well they were. They had enough talent where it mattered, front of the rotation, back of the bullpen and some studs in the lineup. Pfaadt started to emerge in the postseason and that gave them that key third guy in the rotation.

 

If you have a front three, a back end, and a few thoroughbreds in the lineup, you have a shot.

[Zaun of the Dead]

I've honestly been pretty checked out of the whole bichette / vladdy Era. Time to blow it up

[5ToolPhenom]

Watching those Yankees/Rays and Redsox/Nationals games in the final hour of the season and praying for a loss was rough. That f***ing Redsox comeback. The Jays dominated Baltimore over that final series at home. They looked primed and ready for the postseason.

 

Ughh

 

What I remember most of that season was how needlessly Montoyo threw away games by his handling of the bullpen. I remember one game Brad Hand walked like 4 straight batters and gave up a couple of hits and the lead in the last inning before finally pulling him... Perfect example of why you shouldn't throw away games needlessly when every game matters.

[Stangstag]

What I remember most of that season was how needlessly Montoyo threw away games by his handling of the bullpen. I remember one game Brad Hand walked like 4 straight batters and gave up a couple of hits and the lead in the last inning before finally pulling him... Perfect example of why you shouldn't throw away games needlessly when every game matters.

 

I remember Tyler Chatwood continuing to get high leverage opportunities when it was clear the magic had worn off. Lost a couple games there

[BigCecil]

At the transactional level, Atkins is fine. Free agents (or avoiding bad contracts) and trades generally work out well. The problem is a complete lack of ability to develop talent internally. That hamstrings you in what you can do at the MLB level. And fans lash out as how you described because of the frustration with the team failing. Orioles keep on bringing up some new guy who rakes nearly every week. Pretty easy to construct a strong roster when that happens.

 

What do the Jays have? Davis Schneider and a couple of other jobbers that the forum goes nuts over. Their ceilings wouldn't even get them in the conversation for best five players on the Braves' roster.

 

It's not like the weak 2023-24 offseason came as a surprise. Every FO knew that coming into it. I don't blame Atkins for not making major moves. I blame him for coming into the offseason with a cupboard so barren that moves were desperately needed meanwhile knowing that the grocery store would be empty as well. Fans are rightfully angry even if by the time December 2023 came around it was clear that the FO had to mostly stand pat instead of digging an even bigger hole for itself with crippling bad moves.

 

Good post. Agree with all of it. Only question for me is business clinical. Do we need more unbiased, fresh, objective leadership to handle the next couple years transition from the Bo and Vlad era, whatever that may look like. It’s my

view we do. That’s not an indictment against this FO. The debate about their record is an ancillary distraction, but it does speak to who can best lead this chapter. All the past is the past. We are where we are now. Focus needs to be what we do about it and who should lead development of that strategy. How this year goes rolling into the deadline is material.

[Dick_Pole]

While people blame Montoyo for bad moves with the BP, who was he supposed to put in? When you pull your starter in the 6th after 90 pitches even though he's raking because "third time in the order, bro" you're going to have to reach deep into the bullpen. And when you only have three effective guys and the rest are random wildcards, you really don't have a lot of good options. Montoyo had a stupid face and his lackluster managing style has led to the clownish clubhouse atmosphere that we still see the remnants of today (Guerrero). But looking back, especially with how Schneider has been with his in-game decisions, I think Montoyo will be seen in a better light. When two managers absolutely stink at it, back-to-back, it's time to point fingers at somewhere other than them.

[Dick_Pole]

Because people already opened up the Pandora's Box of political comparisons, I'll add my own. When Erin O'Toole because leader of the Conservative Party the sentiment from the more right wing side of the party was "we don't really like you, but if you can win, we will keep you". He got one half-assed pandemic election chance before getting the boot.

 

The Atkins philosophy of team construction has made the team unwatchable. Basically anything other than Kikuchi starts, and who knows how much longer he will be with the team. No stolen bases, no home runs, meh pitching (even though I expect that to improve) and pulling starters too early when they rake. And on top of that, your "star" players are just genuinely unlikeable. Even before this season I couldn't give a damn about Bichette or Guerrero being on this team. Now I actively hope for a trade (if it's a decent return). Never would have heard me say that about Halladay or Delgado.

 

I've actually watched more baseball from other teams this year than the Jays. First time I have ever done that. It's one thing to be the 1995 New Jersey Devils, but at least you are winning. When you are boring and stink and unlikeable, your Erin O'Toole moment is long overdue.

[Dick_Pole]

One guy who I liked way more than the rest of the people here was Rajai Davis. Sure, boneheaded defense plays sometimes. But also a beast on the bases, hit above his weight in terms of clutch hitting and seemed like a nice guy. If the Jays are going to be mediocre, at least be mediocre with fun players like that.

[Laika]

One guy who I liked way more than the rest of the people here was Rajai Davis. Sure, boneheaded defense plays sometimes. But also a beast on the bases, hit above his weight in terms of clutch hitting and seemed like a nice guy. If the Jays are going to be mediocre, at least be mediocre with fun players like that.

 

One of those guys who was prevented from being good by an inexplicable lack of defensive instincts.

 

That's a fairly common problem, you see it today with guys like Jarren Duran. Makes you wonder what exactly goes into things like "defensive instincts" and reads and "first step"

 

It's not experience, really, because some guys like Varsho never play the OF and are just naturally elite at all that

 

It must just be something in the brain, at the lizard brain level, just a natural ability to perceive and react. Some brain computers work better than others.

[BigCecil]

Because people already opened up the Pandora's Box of political comparisons, I'll add my own. When Erin O'Toole because leader of the Conservative Party the sentiment from the more right wing side of the party was "we don't really like you, but if you can win, we will keep you". He got one half-assed pandemic election chance before getting the boot.

 

The Atkins philosophy of team construction has made the team unwatchable. Basically anything other than Kikuchi starts, and who knows how much longer he will be with the team. No stolen bases, no home runs, meh pitching (even though I expect that to improve) and pulling starters too early when they rake. And on top of that, your "star" players are just genuinely unlikeable. Even before this season I couldn't give a damn about Bichette or Guerrero being on this team. Now I actively hope for a trade (if it's a decent return). Never would have heard me say that about Halladay or Delgado.

 

I've actually watched more baseball from other teams this year than the Jays. First time I have ever done that. It's one thing to be the 1995 New Jersey Devils, but at least you are winning. When you are boring and stink and unlikeable, your Erin O'Toole moment is long overdue.

 

I agree on the watch-ability of the this team construction. I felt same about '23 and I really love seeing great D. But its why you can't look at a list of transactions to evaluate the last 8/9 years:

 

Semien 1 year deal good

Tanner Roark FA deal bad

Gausman FA deal good

Springer FA deal bad

Belt 1 year deal good

Morales 3 year deal bad

Hound 3 FA year deal - jury still out

 

etc etc. Its a very long list now. Generally speaking we have a good overall track record on this.

 

The biggest challenge with roster construction now is the now long 8/9 year record on drafting and development - the body of work. It leaves us with a large payroll and not a lot of room to move, to your earlier post.

[MikeM3]

I agree on the watch-ability of the this team construction. I felt same about '23 and I really love seeing great D. But its why you can't look at a list of transactions to evaluate the last 8/9 years:

 

Semien 1 year deal good

Tanner Roark FA deal bad

Gausman FA deal good

Springer FA deal bad

Belt 1 year deal good

Morales 3 year deal bad

Hound 3 FA year deal - jury still out

 

etc etc. Its a very long list now. Generally speaking we have a good overall track record on this.

 

The biggest challenge with roster construction now is the now long 8/9 year record on drafting and development - the body of work. It leaves us with a large payroll and not a lot of room to move, to your earlier post.

 

When you aggregate the war we hit on for a dollar cost basis, I think it's actually pretty good BUT most likely would pale in comparison to the value you get on hitting draft picks and developing 35+s into big leaguers.

[Laika]

When you aggregate the war we hit on for a dollar cost basis, I think it's actually pretty good BUT most likely would pale in comparison to the value you get on hitting draft picks and developing 35+s into big leaguers.

 

Yes, the wins have been huge. The Semien and Gausman hits far outweigh the bad signings.

 

But neither of those are nearly as good as getting 5/6 cheap years out of an all star youngster.

[Brownie19]

When you aggregate the war we hit on for a dollar cost basis, I think it's actually pretty good BUT most likely would pale in comparison to the value you get on hitting draft picks and developing 35+s into big leaguers.

 

Didn't John Schneider coach most of the young core players when they were in the minors (and good)? Do you guys think he's like "what the f***? Bo hit .400 in the minors while pulling the ball all the time - WTF are you dipshits telling him?"

 

It is just so bizarre how almost every single young player immediately s*** the bed when, or soon after arriving at the ML level. Lots of these players are going to get moved and it will be fascinating if they immediately revert back into the players we thought they would be when they leave the org (or not).

[AMS528]

The development and drafting is such a large gaping flaw at this point that unfortunately negates the success elsewhere.

 

Honestly Atkins has won almost every trade, part of that is unfortunately our prospects haven't been very good, but at least they've identified that. It's genuinely very impressive. The guys we've traded for and signed have broadly been solid acquisitions and often our best players. Basically our entire pitching staff.

 

You don't get sustained long term success that way though. It's temporary, because either those players are older and so will decline, if it's short term deals then you've either got to re up for pricier deals like we maybe have to do with Kikuchi, or they cost you assets.

 

Basically there's costs involved with all those methods of player acquisition that you eventually have to deal with that you just don't when you're able to consistently develop your own talent.

 

That let's you let players walk and replace them with cheaper talent, that let's you weather a star player flopping, that let's you deal for a guy like Soto because you have a war chest to utilize when you need it.

 

Honestly if you're not LA who does that as well as having all the money and location advantages, then I think maybe it's the only thing that really really matters for long term success. At every level it helps you, cheap stars, depth, trade chips, room to add free agents cause of the low cost depth.

 

It's why even though Atkins tenure, when you just look at his "moves" should be a success has been less effective then it should be. How can a guy who hits on so many signings and win all his trades be coming up short at building a long term contender? It's cause he's failing at the the thing that matter more than the rest collectively does.

Edited May 9, 2024 by AMS528

[Olerud363]

Yes, the wins have been huge. The Semien and Gausman hits far outweigh the bad signings.

 

But neither of those are nearly as good as getting 5/6 cheap years out of an all star youngster.

 

Teoscar------| 18/19/20/21/22

Janse--------| 18/19/20/21/22/23/24

Gurriel-------| 18/19/20/21/22

Biggio------------|19/20/

Guerrero---------|19/20/21/22/23

Bichette----------|19/20/21/22/23

Kirk-------------------|20/21/22/23

Varsho---------------------------|23/24

Schnieder------------------------ 23/24

 

Roughly speaking above is years when each player was useful

 

Had the most useful young players in 2020, but probably highest combined value in 2021,

 

2024 we are down to only 3 useful young players. The Bo/Vlad/Kirk collapse really messes things up and if they uncollapsed it would look good again.

[Stangstag]

Didn't John Schneider coach most of the young core players when they were in the minors (and good)? Do you guys think he's like "what the f***? Bo hit .400 in the minors while pulling the ball all the time - WTF are you dipshits telling him?"

 

It is just so bizarre how almost every single young player immediately s*** the bed when, or soon after arriving at the ML level. Lots of these players are going to get moved and it will be fascinating if they immediately revert back into the players we thought they would be when they leave the org (or not).

 

I would love to know what people in the org truly think. Would be awesome to have a candid conversation with JS, or Atkins, or Shapiro, even Mattingly

[Olerud363]

Didn't John Schneider coach most of the young core players when they were in the minors (and good)? Do you guys think he's like "what the f***? Bo hit .400 in the minors while pulling the ball all the time - WTF are you dipshits telling him?"

 

It is just so bizarre how almost every single young player immediately s*** the bed when, or soon after arriving at the ML level. Lots of these players are going to get moved and it will be fascinating if they immediately revert back into the players we thought they would be when they leave the org (or not).

 

They really started s***ing the bed in 2023 and it got worse this year. It's all bizarre considering where they were in 2021.

 

1. Homerun jackets works (good vibes work)

2. Illegal Performance enhancing stuff that is widely used but not detectable and harder to get in Canada, so Jays are behind on it. *

3. Not enough analytics

4. Too much analytics

5. Vaccine (Jays may have got more doses because of Justin) **

6. Legal performance enhancing (sleep, no alcohol, redbull at right dose and timing) that Jays are behind on.

 

* Instead of minor league parks look at Guerrero performance in Canada vs USA, those minor league parks happen to be in USA

 

** I hesitate to bring up 5 but we are all adults. It is baseball related because we yet to have an explanation for the data. Personal opinion is that it is not 5.

[Brownie19]

They really started s***ing the bed in 2023 and it got worse this year. It's all bizarre considering where they were in 2021.

 

1. Homerun jackets works (good vibes work)

2. Illegal Performance enhancing stuff that is widely used but not detectable and harder to get in Canada, so Jays are behind on it. *

3. Not enough analytics

4. Too much analytics

5. Vaccine (Jays may have got more doses because of Justin) **

6. Legal performance enhancing (sleep, no alcohol, redbull at right dose and timing) that Jays are behind on.

 

* Instead of minor league parks look at Guerrero performance in Canada vs USA, those minor league parks happen to be in USA

 

** I hesitate to bring up 5 but we are all adults. It is baseball related because we yet to have an explanation for the data. Personal opinion is that it is not 5.

 

Re: #6 - I do know that Clement loves to party and f*** chicks. Whatever that's worth. Seems to be working for him. Maybe they need more Wade Boggs plane trips and less booster juice.

[Stangstag]

They really started s***ing the bed in 2023 and it got worse this year. It's all bizarre considering where they were in 2021.

 

1. Homerun jackets works (good vibes work)

2. Illegal Performance enhancing stuff that is widely used but not detectable and harder to get in Canada, so Jays are behind on it. *

3. Not enough analytics

4. Too much analytics

5. Vaccine (Jays may have got more doses because of Justin) **

6. Legal performance enhancing (sleep, no alcohol, redbull at right dose and timing) that Jays are behind on.

 

* Instead of minor league parks look at Guerrero performance in Canada vs USA, those minor league parks happen to be in USA

 

** I hesitate to bring up 5 but we are all adults. It is baseball related because we yet to have an explanation for the data. Personal opinion is that it is not 5.

 

Can you just like, stop being you for a week or so?

[Olerud363]

Can you just like, stop being you for a week or so?

 

It's a baseball board moron. There is an ignore list. I have it on good word 95% of the board has me on ignore, so if you don't want to read my posts, put me on ignore. If you don't want to read them for a week, put me on ignore for a week.

[Olerud363]

Can you just like, stop being you for a week or so?

 

I also made some interesting points in that post. Some of the performance differences that were attributed to minor league parks, could be attributed to playing in the U.S. continuously.... without 2 weeks at a time in Canada....

[Brownie19]

I also made some interesting points in that post. Some of the performance differences that were attributed to minor league parks, could be attributed to playing in the U.S. continuously.... without 2 weeks at a time in Canada....

 

Olerud - don't take this the wrong way, but that isn't interesting at all.

 

I don't have you on ignore. I think you say lots of interesting things, but that wasn't one of them.

[Omar]

At the transactional level, Atkins is fine. Free agents (or avoiding bad contracts) and trades generally work out well. The problem is a complete lack of ability to develop talent internally. That hamstrings you in what you can do at the MLB level. And fans lash out as how you described because of the frustration with the team failing. Orioles keep on bringing up some new guy who rakes nearly every week. Pretty easy to construct a strong roster when that happens.

 

What do the Jays have? Davis Schneider and a couple of other jobbers that the forum goes nuts over. Their ceilings wouldn't even get them in the conversation for best five players on the Braves' roster.

 

It's not like the weak 2023-24 offseason came as a surprise. Every FO knew that coming into it. I don't blame Atkins for not making major moves. I blame him for coming into the offseason with a cupboard so barren that moves were desperately needed meanwhile knowing that the grocery store would be empty as well. Fans are rightfully angry even if by the time December 2023 came around it was clear that the FO had to mostly stand pat instead of digging an even bigger hole for itself with crippling bad moves.

 

This post is a complete indictment of the Blue Jays front office and their strategy for the past nine years. Surprised at some of the people giving it a like actually.

[Brownie19]

This post is a complete indictment of the Blue Jays front office and their strategy for the past nine years. Surprised at some of the people giving it a like actually.

 

It's a "thanks" - nobody actually likes anything around here.

[Omar]

It's a "thanks" - nobody actually likes anything around here.

 

You're right. THANKS!