Positivity Thread

[Masterbather]

All of Alex's haters just can't stand when he's mentally dominating the opposition. All the more reason to hope it happens.

 

Alex who? Keaton?

[max silver]

Alex who? Keaton?

 

Just a small typo, probably got autocorrected on my phone. You know who I mean smarty pants.

[L54]

Alex who? Keaton?

 

Anthopolus

[max silver]

Anthopolus

 

That dude doesn't really have any haters around here but a certain segment of the posters still worship the ground he walks on.

[jaysblue]

That dude doesn't really have any haters around here but a certain segment of the posters still worship the ground he walks on.

 

LOL.

 

This is coming from the person who actually worships the ground Atkins walks on and more.

[BigCecil]

Looking at Varsho heat map. He is one of those LHH good at golfing pitches low or even just below the zone into the seats.

 

Its a wonder they keep pitching him down - maybe they are just mistakes he is punishing.

[Laika]

Looking at Varsho heat map. He is one of those LHH good at golfing pitches low or even just below the zone into the seats.

 

Its a wonder they keep pitching him down - maybe they are just mistakes he is punishing.

 

They do still pitch him high more often than others. By % he sees 24% of pitches high/away or high/inside, and then 12% in the upper third of the zone.

 

Compare to Vlad = 15% total high/away or high/inside and only 9% in the upper third.

 

So, 50% more pitches "up" than Vlad.

 

But he did see slightly more pitches up last season.

 

Interestingly he has good numbers on pitches high/away and high/inside (out of the zone), good wOBA and xwOBA this year and good wOBA on pitches in the high/middle portion of the zone.

 

 

 

He has a dead zone low/away in the zone and a happy zone low/middle in the zone. Pitchers try to hit the dead zone but it's dangerous because you miss by six inches and you are in his hottest part of the zone.

 

[BigCecil]

Good stuff ^. His last since 3 HR's since the late one off Cano have been low or out of zone. Dangerous there if they make a mistake.

[Laika]

I think the main reason he is doing better on pitches up is just plate discipline.

 

O-Swing 2023: 32.4%

O-Swing 2024: 26.2%

 

Chase rate in 2023 was 51st percentile (28.1%) per statcast

Chase rate in 2024 is 73rd percentile (23.4%) per statcast

 

His K rate is actually worse in 2024 but I think the swing decisions are overall better. He's making less contact in the zone but sometimes that happens when you are doing more confident/aggressive swings. The flip side occurs when a player is lost and just fighting to put the ball in play all the time - you get this sort of artificial reduction in whiff rate which is not always a good sign.

[L54]

Varsho’s profile is weird. He has an xwoba of .277 which is 12th percentile, and xba of .186 which is 2nd percentile. He’s never hit the ball hard and the new statcast metric says his launch angle is bad. Tons of fly balls and pop ups

[BigCecil]

I think the main reason he is doing better on pitches up is just plate discipline.

 

O-Swing 2023: 32.4%

O-Swing 2024: 26.2%

 

Chase rate in 2023 was 51st percentile (28.1%) per statcast

Chase rate in 2024 is 73rd percentile (23.4%) per statcast

 

His K rate is actually worse in 2024 but I think the swing decisions are overall better. He's making less contact in the zone but sometimes that happens when you are doing more confident/aggressive swings. The flip side occurs when a player is lost and just fighting to put the ball in play all the time - you get this sort of artificial reduction in whiff rate which is not always a good sign.

 

No doubt. Was looking at those numbers the other day on chase. His BB rate way up consequently.

 

I remember you making the argument last year he needed to swing less to be better. If he keeps this up he is a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR player again.

[L54]

I think the main reason he is doing better on pitches up is just plate discipline.

 

O-Swing 2023: 32.4%

O-Swing 2024: 26.2%

 

Chase rate in 2023 was 51st percentile (28.1%) per statcast

Chase rate in 2024 is 73rd percentile (23.4%) per statcast

 

His K rate is actually worse in 2024 but I think the swing decisions are overall better. He's making less contact in the zone but sometimes that happens when you are doing more confident/aggressive swings. The flip side occurs when a player is lost and just fighting to put the ball in play all the time - you get this sort of artificial reduction in whiff rate which is not always a good sign.

 

Probably sitting fastball up at times knowing that’s where pitchers want to attack him. Easier to identify when you’re sitting pitch and location.

[L54]

No doubt. Was looking at those numbers the other day on chase. His BB rate way up consequently.

 

I remember you making the argument last year he needed to swing less to be better. If he keeps this up he is a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR player again.

 

He’s been awesome. He’s kind of like the CF version of Chappy. Great D, streaky hitter, big time hustle guy

[Barrelsandbombs]

 

wRC+ by hitter since this meeting:

 

Bichette 189

Vladdy 187

Jano 175

Burgers 160

KK 153

Schneider 102

Varsho 93

IKF 90

Biggio 77

Kirk 52

Springer 30

Clement 7

Turner -29

 

Varsho, IKF and Kirk are the 3 sub-100 wRC+ guys with positive fWAR during this stretch because of their defense.

 

Bo and Vladdy are stepping up huge since the meeting is the main point.

[Laika]

We will know everything we need to know in a month.

 

The rest of May is a cakewalk, 3 more against DET who are just okay then 3 against the White Sox again. 3 against PIT to turn the month over.

 

So on June 3 Toronto should be closer to the playoffs in the standings. If they aren't it's over. But if they are they then have to do well from June 3rd on where it is:

 

Orioles x4

Red Sox x6

Yankees x4

Guardians x6

Brewers x3

As x3

[Eat My Shatkins]

We will know everything we need to know in a month.

 

The rest of May is a cakewalk, 3 more against DET who are just okay then 3 against the White Sox again. 3 against PIT to turn the month over.

 

So on June 3 Toronto should be closer to the playoffs in the standings. If they aren't it's over. But if they are they then have to do well from June 3rd on where it is:

 

Orioles x4

Red Sox x6

Yankees x4

Guardians x6

Brewers x3

As x3

 

Man that's a tough sched...

 

They kinda sorta need to basically run the table for the rest of May before entering that gauntlet

[Dick_Pole]

Put some money on the Jays to make the playoffs at +220. If Manoah pitches well again tonight I'm going to double it. If he is back on, the Jays might have the best starting staff in the league. Or at least in contention for it. Teams like that don't miss the playoffs.

[wilko]

Put some money on the Jays to make the playoffs at +220. If Manoah pitches well again tonight I'm going to double it. If he is back on, the Jays might have the best starting staff in the league. Or at least in contention for it. Teams like that don't miss the playoffs.

 

What are you using to bet?

[Dick_Pole]

What are you using to bet?

 

The Score. It's +245 on Fanduel right now. Fanduel has an open deposit bonus $100 for $200 deposit so I'll probably take advantage of that then dump it all into this bet without impacting my current bankroll. Much better than taking BigCecil's lame $500 straight bet he tried to coerce and bully Terminator into.

[Terminator]

Put some money on the Jays to make the playoffs at +220. If Manoah pitches well again tonight I'm going to double it. If he is back on, the Jays might have the best starting staff in the league. Or at least in contention for it. Teams like that don't miss the playoffs.

 

Oh hell yeah

 

We putting money on this now

[Terminator]

The Score. It's +245 on Fanduel right now. Fanduel has an open deposit bonus $100 for $200 deposit so I'll probably take advantage of that then dump it all into this bet without impacting my current bankroll. Much better than taking BigCecil's lame $500 straight bet he tried to coerce and bully Terminator into.

 

Thank you for the support - that was so absurd. I was shocked at someone I consider a dear friend trying to bully me out of my last $500.

[Omar]

Vlad is almost 2022 Vlad now this year rockin' a 128 wRC+ and trending the right way. Still waiting and hoping to see him pull some V into the LF stands.

 

Bo is on a roll.

 

Amazing what they can do for our run totals, when they are more of what we hope for.

 

That hr jacket was like giving him a 1000 cc shot of Stanozolol right in the keester.

[Terminator]

Vlad is almost 2022 Vlad now this year rockin' a 128 wRC+ and trending the right way. Still waiting and hoping to see him pull some V into the LF stands.

 

Bo is on a roll.

 

Amazing what they can do for our run totals, when they are more of what we hope for.

 

Vlad made some great defensive plays yesterday too. Back to back in the 9th.

[Spanky99]

Well well well....just as I predicted the schedule eases up and we start off 3-1

 

Manoah is back, the bats are on fire and we are back in business boys

 

 

lol

[G-Snarls]

I have enjoyed watching these last few games

[Dick_Pole]

Ok, planted a decent chunk of cash on the Jays.

 

$1,000 to win 80+ games (-128)

$500 to make the playoffs (+350, much better than Cecil's lame bet)

$50 free bet to make the playoffs (+300)

$50 to win 90+ games (+750)

$10 to win the AL East (+7,000)

 

My reasoning:

 

1. Seen enough out of the starters to know they are going to carry the team.

2. Guerrero is heating up, Bichette will eventually follow. Team is finally getting better at line-up construction.

3. BP can't be this s*** forever.

 

 

Let's do this! Could use a 20 game win streak out of nowhere. If I'm wrong I'll just make the money back on some penny stock.

[L54]

Best of luck

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hopefully you win every single one of them. That'd be a fun rest of the season

[Terminator]

Doesn't seem possible but the Jays now have a 100 wRC+ as a team on the season.

[Laika]

Doesn't seem possible but the Jays now have a 100 wRC+ as a team on the season.

 

tied 14th in wRC+

 

25th in runs

 

it's almost like that book It where the clown knows your deepest fears and exploits them

that is what is happening to all of us this season

 

oh, you thought they were inexplicably bad with RISP last year?