GDT - Game #5 - April 01 8:10 ET - Jays @ Astros

[burlingtonbandit]

Here's an article explaining the changes he's made. No results yet, but it looked great all spring.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daulton-varsho-is-cleaning-up-his-process/

 

Sometimes when stress is high/competition becomes greater guys revert back to what they know, so we can see if he can carry those mechanical changes through the season. Because so far in the regular season the swings he's taken have looked a lot like last year, lots of whiffs up in the zone and pop ups.

 

Obviously its only been a week but from a visual standpoint I haven't seen much improvement in the swing.

[connorp]

I always felt and still do that LGJ could have a monster season (or more) in him.

 

A disappointing career overall from my expectations especially after being moved way down the defensive spectrum.

 

I felt .290 20+ homers was his ceiling but the inconsistency was annoying. However, being a well known proponent of offense, I never wished we got rid of him. Everyone was slobbing Varshos knob at the time and they got what they wanted with the defensive WAR, so they should be happy now

[BTS]

I felt .290 20+ homers was his ceiling but the inconsistency was annoying. However, being a well known proponent of offense, I never wished we got rid of him. Everyone was slobbing Varshos knob at the time and they got what they wanted with the defensive WAR, so they should be happy now

 

I'm not sure why you always come here looking to argue, but people thought Varsho was going to provide elite defense and about the same offense as Gurriel. That obviously hasn't happened and it seems like it probably won't.

[connorp]

I'm not sure why you always come here looking to argue, but people thought Varsho was going to provide elite defense and about the same offense as Gurriel. That obviously hasn't happened and it seems like it probably won't.

 

My friend, the biggest talking sports head you can think of are Steven A Smith, Skip Bayless etc. they cater show to arguing and debate like PTI. Nobody wants a circle jerk

[connorp]

And my lobbed insults are actually based in factual roots. You guys (the Outfit) are genuinely of the opinion WAR = WAR whether it’s defense of offense. So like IKF is a 1.5 win player, instead of seeing it as his contributions to the team aren’t of a balanced nature and his 1.5 WAR is not going to help the team like 1.5 WAR of offense would

[Stangstag]

Here's an article explaining the changes he's made. No results yet, but it looked great all spring.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daulton-varsho-is-cleaning-up-his-process/

 

He really just needs to go back to whatever he was doing in 2021/22

[Stangstag]

And my lobbed insults are actually based in factual roots. You guys (the Outfit) are genuinely of the opinion WAR = WAR whether it’s defense of offense. So like IKF is a 1.5 win player, instead of seeing it as his contributions to the team aren’t of a balanced nature and his 1.5 WAR is not going to help the team like 1.5 WAR of offense would

 

What does this even mean

[wamco]

Defense is overrated in WAR imo

[Spanky99]

What does this even mean

 

He thinks RL baseball is fantasy baseball, lol. Dumn.

[BTS]

My friend, the biggest talking sports head you can think of are Steven A Smith, Skip Bayless etc. they cater show to arguing and debate like PTI. Nobody wants a circle jerk

 

No, I understand that people are going to disagree. I'm just not sure what you get from "lawl the HIVEMIND WAR cultists must be thrilled with Varsho and his -81 wRC+ this year because defense" posts. It's just dumb.

[burlingtonbandit]

He really just needs to go back to whatever he was doing in 2021/22

 

He wasn’t even that good back then. In 2022 his xwOBA was actually less than last season. I think the reality is, he’s a very good defensive player and an average to slightly below average hitter. He also gets a lot of bunt hits and is really good at that. So when you need a big hit with runners on base and bunting isn’t an option he’s not really a guy you want up there.

[connorp]

What does this even mean

 

Others got it just fine, mate. You got a like a from Spanky but he’ll like a 20 day old ham sandwich if it’s a “get Connor” post

[connorp]

No, I understand that people are going to disagree. I'm just not sure what you get from "lawl the HIVEMIND WAR cultists must be thrilled with Varsho and his -81 wRC+ this year because defense" posts. It's just dumb.

 

Maybe take it less serious:)

[Daniel Labude]

Well that's the dumbest thing I'll read today.

 

Cool, join Spanky in the corner of embarrassment

[Daniel Labude]

Defense is overrated in WAR imo

 

You can't win games if you don't score

[Laika]

Defense is overrated in WAR imo

 

great analysis

 

we should tag Tom Tango

[connorp]

great analysis

 

we should tag Tom Tango

 

One of my biggest progresses in management over the years was to learn to say less. Sometimes you don’t need to carry on with the backup details. Same what you mean. Short and sweet. If they want more, than give it

[Laika]

One of my biggest progresses in management over the years was to learn to say less. Sometimes you don’t need to carry on with the backup details. Same what you mean. Short and sweet. If they want more, than give it

 

I'm not exactly shocked that "talking less" was a key to YOUR modest success in life.

[Brownie19]

Cool, join Spanky in the corner of embarrassment

 

You're claiming the Jays had no idea Blanco threw a changeup and suggesting someone should be fired because of their lack of preparation. Your source for this opinion is "watch the hitters, you can tell". I mean - that logic just doesn't fly man. Now if you want to argue the Jays weren't prepared for just how good the changeup was and weren't ready for him to throw it 36% of the time - fine, make that argument.

 

I'm not 100% sure how you think the Jays ought to have known he'd be throwing it that often - or that it would be so much more effective than it was last year (if it even was). He only threw it 10% last year and this was his first start of 2024. Should they have secret agents spying on the Astros, bugging their strategy meetings where they talk about their approach that game?

 

For tonight's game - do you think the Jays should be super prepared for Valdez's cutter? I mean he threw it 3.5% of the time last year, but they better be prepared because he might throw it 30% of the time tonight and mow down the Jays with it!

[burlingtonbandit]

You're claiming the Jays had no idea Blanco threw a changeup and suggesting someone should be fired because of their lack of preparation. Your source for this opinion is "watch the hitters, you can tell". I mean - that logic just doesn't fly man. Now if you want to argue the Jays weren't prepared for just how good the changeup was and weren't ready for him to throw it 36% of the time - fine, make that argument.

 

I'm not 100% sure how you think the Jays ought to have known he'd be throwing it that often - or that it would be so much more effective than it was last year (if it even was). He only threw it 10% last year and this was his first start of 2024. Should they have secret agents spying on the Astros, bugging their strategy meetings where they talk about their approach that game?

 

For tonight's game - do you think the Jays should be super prepared for Valdez's cutter? I mean he threw it 3.5% of the time last year, but they better be prepared because he might throw it 30% of the time tonight and mow down the Jays with it!

 

I know what you are saying but also to be fair there are "in game adjustments", which it looks like the Jays did none.

[wamco]

great analysis

 

we should tag Tom Tango

 

Never meant to be an analysis. Bill James already did that and doesn’t believe in WAR.

 

IKF and lgj both projected about 1.5 war correct? One got 7.5 aav (IKF) and one got 14AAV.

 

Why would that be in your opinion?

 

Teo prob wasn’t far off from 1.5 war projection and got like 18m

[Brownie19]

I know what you are saying but also to be fair there are "in game adjustments", which it looks like the Jays did none.

 

OK, but that would have nothing to do with the Jays knowing about his changeup and someone getting fired because they weren't prepared for it - so it's a moot point.

 

You don't think the players and coaches weren't talking in the dugout about how good his changeup was last night and talking about how he's throwing it way more than he ever has in the past? I mean you can guess that they must not have been based on the results, but doesn't that just sound stupid? You don't think after about the 3rd inning that guys in the dugout would be talking about his pitch mix and what they saw at the plate? I think it's safe to say those conversations happen in every single game they play - or I'd be shocked if they didn't. People honestly believe that nobody in that dugout was talking about his changeup and it's usage last night? You think the coaches were preaching "stick to the original game plan - don't change a f***ing thing!"

 

Should teams ALWAYS be able to make in-game adjustments and start hitting better? I mean obviously that isn't realistic, or nobody would ever throw a perfect game, no-hitter or even give you 7 innings with 0 ER. There were 4 OTHER shutouts around the league last night. Why didn't those teams make in-game adjustments?

 

Obviously the answer is that even if you're trying to make in-game adjustments, it doesn't always work.

[Laika]

Never meant to be an analysis. Bill James already did that and doesn’t believe in WAR.

 

IKF and lgj both projected about 1.5 war correct? One got 7.5 aav (IKF) and one got 14AAV.

 

Why would that be in your opinion?

 

Teo prob wasn’t far off from 1.5 war projection and got like 18m

 

Things that are scarce get paid

Good MLB hitters are pretty scarce

Good MLB defenders are also scarce, particularly those that can do anything with the stick

 

Defense alone tends not to get paid in FA because it's not as scarce. You can find decent defensive catchers or glove only players in AAA, you can't really find guys who would be a great MLB DH just sitting in AAA. But that doesn't mean the defensive component of WAR is ********, because defenders who can hit at all are still relatively scarce and it remains possible to compare and measure defense.

 

The free agent market is also not perfect or even efficient.

 

Defense is also a) harder to measure and probably subject to more rapid decline than offensive skills. This makes teams more hesitant to pay for it long term, or even short term. But that doesn't mean it's less valuable, it just means it's a bit harder to bottle or it is more fleeting.

 

Hitters are old by the time they reach FA, most past the top of their aging curve. Offense contains old man skills like patience and decision making which basically only get better with age. Defense has zero old man skills within it.

[Spanky99]

Others got it just fine, mate. You got a like a from Spanky but he’ll like a 20 day old ham sandwich if it’s a “get Connor” post

 

Remember when you totally ignored Tango on the matter, lol. Fool.

[connorp]

Remember when you totally ignored Tango on the matter, lol. Fool.

 

That convo was 1b adjustments if I remember right

[connorp]

Never meant to be an analysis. Bill James already did that and doesn’t believe in WAR.

 

IKF and lgj both projected about 1.5 war correct? One got 7.5 aav (IKF) and one got 14AAV.

 

Why would that be in your opinion?

 

Teo prob wasn’t far off from 1.5 war projection and got like 18m

 

And it was even reported, not just us fans, but industry people being like wtf to even 7.5 for IKF.

[Terminator]

Never has a paltry 7.5M AAV signing lead to so much bitching and whining in the history of this sport.

 

It's probably only been rivaled by the best fielding CFer of all time signing for 1 year 10 mil.

 

It's remarkable.

[Laika]

[wamco]

Basically if 75 pct of your sub 2 WAR is defense driven, I tend to think “so f***ing what”

[mphenhef]

You're claiming the Jays had no idea Blanco threw a changeup and suggesting someone should be fired because of their lack of preparation. Your source for this opinion is "watch the hitters, you can tell". I mean - that logic just doesn't fly man. Now if you want to argue the Jays weren't prepared for just how good the changeup was and weren't ready for him to throw it 36% of the time - fine, make that argument.

 

I'm not 100% sure how you think the Jays ought to have known he'd be throwing it that often - or that it would be so much more effective than it was last year (if it even was). He only threw it 10% last year and this was his first start of 2024. Should they have secret agents spying on the Astros, bugging their strategy meetings where they talk about their approach that game?

 

For tonight's game - do you think the Jays should be super prepared for Valdez's cutter? I mean he threw it 3.5% of the time last year, but they better be prepared because he might throw it 30% of the time tonight and mow down the Jays with it!

 

Blanco was throwing it all spring a lot more than he did last year so I would think a good advanced scouting program would be checking out Astro's fifth start candidates in spring knowing you'd be facing them in the second series...maybe not though.