Around Baseball 2024

[Stangstag]

eww WTF is fangraphs doing

[Stangstag]

Yes but we would have expected Judge+Soto to be something like 6 combined WAR better than Vlad+Bo, pre-season. So the present performance (10 WAR vs 1.6) would be compared to an expected performance of like 6 WAR vs 3, or something like that, at this point in the year.

 

The Yankees are milking more value out of their SP than expected, across the board. They are way over their skis though. Their ERA minus FIP is wildly lucky at the moment.

 

Isn't this true for the yankees every year though? Somehow they find a way

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yes but we would have expected Judge+Soto to be something like 6 combined WAR better than Vlad+Bo, pre-season. So the present performance (10 WAR vs 1.6) would be compared to an expected performance of like 6 WAR vs 3, or something like that, at this point in the year.

 

The Yankees are milking more value out of their SP than expected, across the board. They are way over their skis though. Their ERA minus FIP is wildly lucky at the moment.

 

Yeah, I'm not surprised by the difference in those players values, just pointing out that they aren't some deep team loaded with superstars, they are an average team that is propped up by two superstars that are healthy and having superstar seasons.

 

I am surprised that their pitching has been this good without Cole though.

[Terminator]

Isn't this true for the yankees every year though? Somehow they find a way

 

Not sure about that. They finished 4th last year and have won the division twice in the past 11 years. One World Series appearance in the last 20+ years.

 

Everyone here thinks Atkins is horrible to at mid, at best. But since 2020, basically the year we started trying to compete after the post-Bautista rebuild, they had 2 more wins than us until this year.

[connorp]

Then add Vlad and another 30+ million per year as well on top of that.

 

Yeah, so net $10-15m

[connorp]

Are you calling Vladdy a liar? He hates NY.

 

You can’t hate playing with Judge and Soto. Roster loaded with his type of guys.

[Terminator]

Despite what Vlad says, he could end up in NYY some day. A pile of cash will change anyone's mind.

 

So I agree there but I otherwise wouldn't bet on it. The Yankees need a 1B now and will need one this upcoming offseason too. They may lock that position down by the time Vlad is a FA in 2026.

 

Plus, the Jays could also try and extend Vlad this offseason. And if he does hit FA, there will be a bunch of teams in on him. The Yankees might not be able to pay everyone they have, plus Soto, plus Vlad.

 

So if the bet is the Yankees or the Field the Field is far more likely.

[connorp]

Despite what Vlad says, he could end up in NYY some day. A pile of cash will change anyone's mind.

 

So I agree there but I otherwise wouldn't bet on it. The Yankees need a 1B now and will need one this upcoming offseason too. They may lock that position down by the time Vlad is a FA in 2026.

 

Plus, the Jays could also try and extend Vlad this offseason. And if he does hit FA, there will be a bunch of teams in on him. The Yankees might not be able to pay everyone they have, plus Soto, plus Vlad.

 

So if the bet is the Yankees or the Field the Field is far more likely.

 

1b can be a rotation of guys. I agree they’re not going to wait to land a big fish if they could. Can’t count on Vlad hitting FA. So it’ll depend on how the cards fall but they’re on example of a team that will pay Vlad. If he’s a .900 OPS bat going into FA, 10/250 is the min

[connorp]

For all of the “Vlad plays 1b”… Soto plays OF and is a consensus negative out there, so was Harper. So what does it matter.

 

I’m sorry you guys hate that FA like Harper that are only 3-4 WAR guys are worth 3-4x what guys like Varsho are worth on the market for providing the same WAR.

 

Maybe that’s why you guys like the FO office so much with their sneaky moves. How is that going? lol

[BTS]

For all of the “Vlad plays 1b”… Soto plays OF and is a consensus negative out there, so was Harper. So what does it matter.

 

I’m sorry you guys hate that FA like Harper that are only 3-4 WAR guys are worth 3-4x what guys like Varsho are worth on the market for providing the same WAR.

 

Maybe that’s why you guys like the FO office so much with their sneaky moves. How is that going? lol

 

You have a habit of taking a stance, then lumping the rest of the forum into a monolithic uninformed opposition to that stance, then tilting at the windmill you've created.

 

You're doing it again

[connorp]

You're doing it again

 

It’s simply a little spice for debate and not bad intentioned. But also relevant in this case.

Don’t think Vlad being a 1b is going to limit his value, it’s not.

[mphenhef]

Despite what Vlad says, he could end up in NYY some day. A pile of cash will change anyone's mind.

 

So I agree there but I otherwise wouldn't bet on it. The Yankees need a 1B now and will need one this upcoming offseason too. They may lock that position down by the time Vlad is a FA in 2026.

 

Plus, the Jays could also try and extend Vlad this offseason. And if he does hit FA, there will be a bunch of teams in on him. The Yankees might not be able to pay everyone they have, plus Soto, plus Vlad.

 

So if the bet is the Yankees or the Field the Field is far more likely.

 

Pete Alonso seems like the kind of douche the yankees would add.

[connorp]

Pete Alonso seems like the kind of douche the yankees would add.

 

Yeah, I’d assume they’ll take a hard look. Probably pay a fair rate and go over and break the bank.

 

Some baseball nerd would know better, but I think the lower contact guys will probably age a lot worse than a guy like Vlad. That’s why I think Vlad goes for a lot more.

 

A little regression the other way and Gallo and Schwarber come to mind for Alonso

[AMS528]

It’s simply a little spice for debate and not bad intentioned. But also relevant in this case.

Don’t think Vlad being a 1b is going to limit his value, it’s not.

 

It makes absolutely no sense that the position Vlad pays is somehow going to play no role in what he's signed for.

 

There's a reason there are 7 SS's and 5 3B, making 200 million or over and 0 1B making that. It's a factor and he's not going to escape it because no one currently active in the league has. If you can establish the way in which Vlad is unique relative to other 1B allowing him to get a higher contract that would be one thing.

 

The only two historical 1B to get contracts of that size were Pujols and Votto. Pujols was literally one of the best hitters of all time.

[Terminator]

It makes absolutely no sense that the position Vlad pays is somehow going to play no role in what he's signed for.

 

There's a reason there are 7 SS's and 5 3B, making 200 million or over and 0 1B making that. It's a factor and he's not going to escape it because no one currently active in the league has. If you can establish the way in which Vlad is unique relative to other 1B allowing him to get a higher contract that would be one thing.

 

The only two historical 1B to get contracts of that size were Pujols and Votto. Pujols was literally one of the best hitters of all time.

 

Great points. To add, I think a Vlad extension this offseason seems like a good bet to happen IMO.

 

-The Jays don't have much locked up long term (for better or worse). They need some good players to market/compete with.

-No one in the org wants to see Vlad sign elsewhere and pop off with MVP like numbers

-He's a marketable guy, he's young, has a good injury history, etc. Seems genuine when he says he wants to be here long-term.

-His agent isn't Boras.

 

So there's a lot of motivation for an extension from both sides but what could help more than anything is that his price has dropped a lot.

-The market is down (at least it was this year).

-Vlad's performance compared to what we thought he would be is also down.

-He plays 1B.

 

He won't even sniff Devers money or Austin Riley money. He probably gets Matt Olson money, TOPS (8 years, 168M). Maybe a little higher then that, but could get a lot lower. And if you're the team, is there that much risk there? They basically pay him an AAV close to that already so locking him up through his age 33/34 season seems palatable.

[Stangstag]

It makes absolutely no sense that the position Vlad pays is somehow going to play no role in what he's signed for.

 

There's a reason there are 7 SS's and 5 3B, making 200 million or over and 0 1B making that. It's a factor and he's not going to escape it because no one currently active in the league has. If you can establish the way in which Vlad is unique relative to other 1B allowing him to get a higher contract that would be one thing.

 

The only two historical 1B to get contracts of that size were Pujols and Votto. Pujols was literally one of the best hitters of all time.

 

Prince Fielder got 200+ but that one didn't work out so well...

[Spanky__99]

Prince Fielder got 200+ but that one didn't work out so well...

 

Well, you can't foresee a degenerative spine disorder.

[Brownie19]

It makes absolutely no sense that the position Vlad pays is somehow going to play no role in what he's signed for.

 

There's a reason there are 7 SS's and 5 3B, making 200 million or over and 0 1B making that. It's a factor and he's not going to escape it because no one currently active in the league has. If you can establish the way in which Vlad is unique relative to other 1B allowing him to get a higher contract that would be one thing.

 

The only two historical 1B to get contracts of that size were Pujols and Votto. Pujols was literally one of the best hitters of all time.

 

All valid...I just wanted to add that Votto is also one of the best hitters of all time...

[BatFlip]

Great points. To add, I think a Vlad extension this offseason seems like a good bet to happen IMO.

 

-The Jays don't have much locked up long term (for better or worse). They need some good players to market/compete with.

-No one in the org wants to see Vlad sign elsewhere and pop off with MVP like numbers

-He's a marketable guy, he's young, has a good injury history, etc. Seems genuine when he says he wants to be here long-term.

-His agent isn't Boras.

 

So there's a lot of motivation for an extension from both sides but what could help more than anything is that his price has dropped a lot.

-The market is down (at least it was this year).

-Vlad's performance compared to what we thought he would be is also down.

-He plays 1B.

 

He won't even sniff Devers money or Austin Riley money. He probably gets Matt Olson money, TOPS (8 years, 168M). Maybe a little higher then that, but could get a lot lower. And if you're the team, is there that much risk there? They basically pay him an AAV close to that already so locking him up through his age 33/34 season seems palatable.

 

 

These are great points, but I can't help but wonder how badly Vlad actually wants to stay here.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Buster Olney got hacked and the hacker is posting all his drafts on X lol

[Terminator]

These are great points, but I can't help but wonder how badly Vlad actually wants to stay here.

 

He talks like he does.

 

"“I have no grudge against the Blue Jays, despite the tense negotiations I had with the team during salary arbitration,” Guerrero Jr. told ESPN’s Enrique Rojas on Thursday. “It’s just business. I would like to be a Blue Jay for the rest of my career, but the team has not made me an offer yet.""

 

He's said a bunch of things like that before. But who knows for sure. He's only a year away at this point.

[connorp]

It makes absolutely no sense that the position Vlad pays is somehow going to play no role in what he's signed for.

 

There's a reason there are 7 SS's and 5 3B, making 200 million or over and 0 1B making that. It's a factor and he's not going to escape it because no one currently active in the league has. If you can establish the way in which Vlad is unique relative to other 1B allowing him to get a higher contract that would be one thing.

 

The only two historical 1B to get contracts of that size were Pujols and Votto. Pujols was literally one of the best hitters of all time.

 

Prince Fielder.

[connorp]

Mark Teixiera. Off my head two. You’re just looking for some specific amount rather the understanding 1b get big deals

[Spanky__99]

Buster Olney's been hacked and it's pretty comical s***...

 

[Spanky__99]

Buster Olney got hacked and the hacker is posting all his drafts on X lol

 

Funny stuff, yet gheeeeyyy .

[connorp]

Eric Hosmer got 8/144 lol

 

At 32 Goldy got 5/130

Remember Chris Davis was big at the time

 

Gtfo that a 26yo 1b can’t get a huge contract lol

[Spanky__99]

Mark Teixiera. Off my head two. You’re just looking for some specific amount rather the understanding 1b get big deals

 

He'll likely get north of what Olson got, depends how he plays out this contract, meat.

 

*Off my head two * lol

[Terminator]

Not sure what point Connor is trying to make by spamming out random 5-10 year old contracts that pop into his head.

 

They are all sub-200 million anyway and tend to prove the point that this version of Vlad isn't getting a 10 year, 250 million megadeal.

[Spanky__99]

You're doing it again

 

Not sure what point Connor is trying to make by spamming out random 5-10 year old contracts that pop into his head.

 

They are all sub-200 million anyway and tend to prove the point that this version of Vlad isn't getting a 10 year, 250 million megadeal.

 

Trollolololol... and a moron, so there's that.

[Stangstag]

Mark Teixiera. Off my head two. You’re just looking for some specific amount rather the understanding 1b get big deals

 

The times have changed, teams understand that defense is a thing now. And most guys can be moved to 1B in their later years, Harper for example.

 

For a 1B to get a big contract these days, he needs to have an elite bat. Talking 130ish wRC+ and up with a consistent track record.