Around Baseball 2024

[connorp]

Not sure what point Connor is trying to make by spamming out random 5-10 year old contracts that pop into his head.

 

They are all sub-200 million anyway and tend to prove the point that this version of Vlad isn't getting a 10 year, 250 million megadeal.

 

Maybe I can still get a Big Mac for $2 too. Or sign the next Mickey Mantle for $500

[connorp]

The times have changed, teams understand that defense is a thing now. And most guys can be moved to 1B in their later years, Harper for example.

 

For a 1B to get a big contract these days, he needs to have an elite bat. Talking 130ish wRC+ and up with a consistent track record.

 

Agreed on the 130+ that’s what teams will value Vladdy at.

 

As for times changing, they haven’t really. Teams pay for offense. It is what it is. Sorry guys. BTS says I make s*** up and then everyone argues the point lol

[connorp]

Maybe the Jays can find another 2 or 3 Three WAR IKF’s and make a run at this title

[Terminator]

Maybe the Jays can find another 2 or 3 Three WAR IKF’s and make a run at this title

 

That would be pretty cool to have a team full of clutch, slap hitting defensive wizards at every position. Kind of like the 2015 Royals I guess.

[Stangstag]

Agreed on the 130+ that’s what teams will value Vladdy at.

 

As for times changing, they haven’t really. Teams pay for offense. It is what it is. Sorry guys. BTS says I make s*** up and then everyone argues the point lol

 

It depends how Vladdy looks the rest of this year + next. If he has another season like 2023 teams will be hesitant to give him a big deal.

[Stangstag]

That would be pretty cool to have a team full of clutch, slap hitting defensive wizards at every position. Kind of like the 2015 Royals I guess.

 

Drinking Yankee fans’ tears as we slap hit our way to the WS would be awesome

[connorp]

It depends how Vladdy looks the rest of this year + next. If he has another season like 2023 teams will be hesitant to give him a big deal.

 

I’m with that too but I’m sipping the Vlad kool aid a bit again. Not like 160 OPs+ Vlad but 130 all day. 140 probably

[Stangstag]

I’m with that too but I’m sipping the Vlad kool aid a bit again. Not like 160 OPs+ Vlad but 130 all day. 140 probably

 

I suppose you own him on one of your fantasy teams?

[Laika]

I might agree with connorp

 

Vlad camp is probably eyeing the Devers extension

 

What he would actually get in free agency just depends so much on the next 1.6 years though

[connorp]

I suppose you own him on one of your fantasy teams?

 

I have the one and I do. But I spammed many a Vlad offers over the years at all high and low points.

[connorp]

I might agree with connorp

 

Vlad camp is probably eyeing the Devers extension

 

What he would actually get in free agency just depends so much on the next 1.6 years though

 

Well, of course agreed on some level, but you also have to take into account “bad Vlad” was good for 25-30 hr and .350obp and as a contact guy, just seems like there’s not a ton of risk in the profile. Like a Prince Fielder, who I guess isn’t a good comp for low “risk” but seems it was more a freak genetic thing than being fat. If I remember right

[Spanky__99]

Well, of course agreed on some level, but you also have to take into account “bad Vlad” was good for 25-30 hr and .350obp and as a contact guy, just seems like there’s not a ton of risk in the profile. Like a Prince Fielder, who I guess isn’t a good comp for low “risk” but seems it was more a freak genetic thing than being fat. If I remember right

 

You just saw me post it earlier, lol. Right now Vlad gets 10-200. You guys are high, man.

[Carlos Danger]

Well, you can't foresee a degenerative spine disorder.

 

Yes you can:

 

Doctors have long felt that being overweight can lead to degenerative disc (DDD) disease of the spine, often causing lower back pain. Statistics show that as a patient’s BMI (Body Mass Index) climbs, so does the incident of their lower back pain. Patients with a BMI greater than 25 are more likely to develop osteoarthritis than those with a lower BMI. This is the deduction from observing the biomechanical action of body weight on the discs of the spine, where bearing years of extra pressure will often take its toll on the bones and cartilage of joints.

[Spanky__99]

Yes you can:

 

Doctors have long felt that being overweight can lead to degenerative disc (DDD) disease of the spine, often causing lower back pain. Statistics show that as a patient’s BMI (Body Mass Index) climbs, so does the incident of their lower back pain. Patients with a BMI greater than 25 are more likely to develop osteoarthritis than those with a lower BMI. This is the deduction from observing the biomechanical action of body weight on the discs of the spine, where bearing years of extra pressure will often take its toll on the bones and cartilage of joints.

 

Wrong, spinal stenosis is a restriction in the neck canal, has nothing to do with weight within reason, David Wright was huge too, right?

[Carlos Danger]

Wrong, spinal stenosis is a restriction in the neck canal, has nothing to do with weight within reason, David Wright was huge too, right?

 

Yes, obesity is a risk factor for spinal stenosis, a condition that occurs when the spinal canal narrows, potentially pinching nerves. Obesity can contribute to spinal stenosis through biomechanical changes that damage the spine, such as:

Degenerative disc disease

Being overweight or obese can speed up the process of disc wear and tear, which can reduce their ability to cushion the spine.

Increased compression forces

Adiposity in the trunk of the body can increase compression forces on disc surfaces.

[Spanky__99]

Yes, obesity is a risk factor for spinal stenosis, a condition that occurs when the spinal canal narrows, potentially pinching nerves. Obesity can contribute to spinal stenosis through biomechanical changes that damage the spine, such as:

Degenerative disc disease

Being overweight or obese can speed up the process of disc wear and tear, which can reduce their ability to cushion the spine.

Increased compression forces

Adiposity in the trunk of the body can increase compression forces on disc surfaces.

 

That's in lumbar cases, cervical is simply a degeneration and the symptoms are far more harsh than lumbar stenosis. I don't disagree there.

 

Spinal stenosis in the neck can cause:

 

Numbness

Tingling or weakness in a hand, leg, foot or arm

Problems with walking and balance

Neck pain

Problems with the bowel or bladder

 

I have 4 of those symptoms and have went through 2 surgeries, the very same procedures huys like Fielder and Wright went through, hell my soaking wet 110 lb ex-wife had the procedure. It's flippin' brutal.

[Stangstag]

That's in lumbar cases, cervical is simply a degeneration and the symptoms are far more harsh than lumbar stenosis. I don't disagree there.

 

Spinal stenosis in the neck can cause:

 

Numbness

Tingling or weakness in a hand, leg, foot or arm

Problems with walking and balance

Neck pain

Problems with the bowel or bladder

 

I have 4 of those symptoms and have went through 2 surgeries, the very same procedures huys like Fielder and Wright went through, hell my soaking wet 110 lb ex-wife had the procedure. It's flippin' brutal.

 

I always knew you were full of s***.

 

 

 

 

Jk

Sorry maybe that was in bad taste but I had to

[Spanky__99]

I always knew you were full of s***.

 

 

 

 

Jk

Sorry maybe that was in bad taste but I had to

 

lol... that's the one I don't have.

[Olerud363]

I might agree with connorp

 

Vlad camp is probably eyeing the Devers extension

 

What he would actually get in free agency just depends so much on the next 1.6 years though

 

 

In the good scenario where he performs as a 3 WAR guy over next 1.6 years his lifetime fWAR pattern will be pretty similar to Cody Bellingers.

 

However Bellinger's line is much more bizarre and erratic, even going .165 with negative WAR. But the average and pattern of WAR from 2021 to 2026 will probably be similar to Bellinger 2018-2023, big MVP year followed by becoming a 1 WAR guy for a bit then (potential for Vlad) rebound before free agency.

[Jimcanuck]

Bellinger trough is pretty conclusively injury related. Vlad doesn't have that excuse.

[Laika]

Bellinger trough is pretty conclusively injury related. Vlad doesn't have that excuse.

 

that's doesn't really help

 

team's will look at Vlad and drool. "we can fix her"

 

they don't really think that about Bellinger anymore. you can't turn hamburger meat back into steak.

[Laika]

In the good scenario where he performs as a 3 WAR guy over next 1.6 years his lifetime fWAR pattern will be pretty similar to Cody Bellingers.

 

However Bellinger's line is much more bizarre and erratic, even going .165 with negative WAR. But the average and pattern of WAR from 2021 to 2026 will probably be similar to Bellinger 2018-2023, big MVP year followed by becoming a 1 WAR guy for a bit then (potential for Vlad) rebound before free agency.

 

If Vlad can have a 4 WAR year in 2025 then the Devers comps are strong

 

Both have the seam peak (6.4 and 6.3 WAR)

Both have the same valley (Devers bad in his first 750 MLB PA, 1.5 WAR, and after his great year, 0.8 WAR in 250 PA)

 

Vlad loses a bit in defensive value and BsR but I don't know how much that matters for a contract. It's not like teams look at Devers and think he's a long term 3B.

 

Of course if needs a 4+ WAR year at age 26 to make that a strong comp. Or at least very strong final offensive lines in 2024 and 2025. If he has a stinker then he just looks objectively worse than Devers on a WAR graph since Devers has been steadily good since age 24.

[Jimcanuck]

that's doesn't really help

 

team's will look at Vlad and drool. "we can fix her"

 

they don't really think that about Bellinger anymore. you can't turn hamburger meat back into steak.

 

Dude

 

Belly was 10th in NL MVP voting last year. That's steak.

[Laika]

Well, of course agreed on some level, but you also have to take into account “bad Vlad” was good for 25-30 hr and .350obp and as a contact guy, just seems like there’s not a ton of risk in the profile. Like a Prince Fielder, who I guess isn’t a good comp for low “risk” but seems it was more a freak genetic thing than being fat. If I remember right

 

The age at free agency is the biggest factor. You take his exact WAR trend and make him a free agent at 29 or 30 and teams are not nearly as interested, it would shave years and dollars off that contract and not just a linear reduction like him getting two less years on the end it.

 

But you make him a free agent after his age 26 season and GMs start to get excited about the proposition of buying like 4 years of peak Vlad in free agency and then fixing him and it being some franchise altering move.

[Laika]

Dude

 

Belly was 10th in NL MVP voting last year. That's steak.

 

[Olerud363]

The age at free agency is the biggest factor. You take his exact WAR trend and make him a free agent at 29 or 30 and teams are not nearly as interested, it would shave years and dollars off that contract and not just a linear reduction like him getting two less years on the end it.

 

But you make him a free agent after his age 26 season and GMs start to get excited about the proposition of buying like 4 years of peak Vlad in free agency and then fixing him and it being some franchise altering move.

 

Mark my words. He signs with the Red Sox and stays with them until 41. Wins a triple crown, and MVP, fulfills his Pujols potential and like David Ortiz somehow defies belief and lasts until he is 41.

 

Becomes part of the fabric of the city, brings joy to the youth, makes old, bitter, message board posters less skeptical. Changes the vibe of the city. On buses and billboards with Jason Taytum.

 

He will be everything we dreamed he would be but for the Red Sox.

[connorp]

Bellinger trough is pretty conclusively injury related. Vlad doesn't have that excuse.

 

Dumb comp. Vladdy never hit the gutter. That’s the point. 118 is bad Vlad.

[connorp]

The age at free agency is the biggest factor. You take his exact WAR trend and make him a free agent at 29 or 30 and teams are not nearly as interested, it would shave years and dollars off that contract and not just a linear reduction like him getting two less years on the end it.

 

But you make him a free agent after his age 26 season and GMs start to get excited about the proposition of buying like 4 years of peak Vlad in free agency and then fixing him and it being some franchise altering move.

 

Yeah, obviously. Otherwise is a 5/130 Goldy deal. Springer like deal at 31 or whatever he was. 1b isn’t hurting him. All depends what the bat is

[connorp]

Mark my words. He signs with the Red Sox and stays with them until 41. Wins a triple crown, and MVP, fulfills his Pujols potential and like David Ortiz somehow defies belief and lasts until he is 41.

 

Becomes part of the fabric of the city, brings joy to the youth, makes old, bitter, message board posters less skeptical. Changes the vibe of the city. On buses and billboards with Jason Taytum.

 

He will be everything we dreamed he would be but for the Red Sox.

 

Idk. I had Casas in one fantasy league even though I was not high on him. When he plays, he looks legit top tier 1b in future

[max silver]

 

Looks pretty scrumptious. I used to eat s*** like this when I was a bachelor and didn't really know how to cook.