General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Olerud363]

Really? Even using 5 million per win... in either season...doing the math suggests Vlad's value would be 30% of 5 million. I'm admittedly too lazy to look up what the actual win value was for 2019...but league minimum salary was 555,000. 30% of 5 million is 1.5 million.

 

Being paid about a 3rd of what you're worth could certainly qualify as drastically underpaid. And if the value a win was higher than 5 million it just gets worse ...

 

I know that's not really the spirit of your argument, but the fact remains a disproportionate number of wins in MLB is generated by ayers in their first 3 years of service time, while.being drastically underpaid at league minimum. That's the basis for those new bonus pools. It's still extremely tilted, but it's a step in the right direction.

 

Along those lines Jays have a massive collection of guys who will be around 24 to 27 and may have their best year in 2025 and get paid league minimum. Howritz, Clemente, Schneider, Barger, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, Jiminez, that's 8 guys, who could be the 2025 version of 2015 Kevin Pillar/Ryan Goins/Devon Travis. Like these guys may not have long careers but next year is the year you could get something out of them for very cheap.

 

Maybe some of them get traded for bullpen help.

[Brownie19]

But vlad isn't really overpaid .... and was severely underpaid in years 1, 2, 3, less so in 4, and is trending to be severely underpaid in year 5.

 

But that's a separate argument. They're allowed to use publicly available stats, with limits. They can't use any statcast stuff

 

But yes, the reason it's not getting fixed is because the owners benefit faaaaaaaaaar more often than they get boned. This last CBA negitiation proved that

 

Yes - players are underpaid early in their careers. That's a separate argument altogether. For those who make it there, they are often extremely overpaid later in their careers too. The system rewards those with longevity. But that really has nothing to do with my point. Vlad isn't in the same class as Soto, Ohtani or Betts at this point in his career. Yes, the bat is, but baserunning and defense are part of baseball. There's little to no way Vlad should be paid as much as those guys at the same point in his career. He hasn't earned it unless you "just" look at old school counting stats like it's 1997.

 

I can't imagine Vlad's agent presenting his case to the arbitrator, presenting a chart showing how many RBI's Vlad's had over the past 5 years - comparing it to Betts (a leadoff hitter) and going "see - Vlad has more RBI's, therefore he deserves as much as Mookie got". It must take a lot of acting to pretend like you believe s*** like RBI's are an impactful way to judge value in your player. It would be even hard trying to argue your pitching client deserves a big raise because they had 16 "wins" last year. It's bizarre.

[John_Havok]

Yes - players are underpaid early in their careers. That's a separate argument altogether. For those who make it there, they are often extremely overpaid later in their careers too. The system rewards those with longevity. But that really has nothing to do with my point. Vlad isn't in the same class as Soto, Ohtani or Betts at this point in his career. Yes, the bat is, but baserunning and defense are part of baseball. There's little to no way Vlad should be paid as much as those guys at the same point in his career. He hasn't earned it unless you "just" look at old school counting stats like it's 1997.

 

I can't imagine Vlad's agent presenting his case to the arbitrator, presenting a chart showing how many RBI's Vlad's had over the past 5 years - comparing it to Betts (a leadoff hitter) and going "see - Vlad has more RBI's, therefore he deserves as much as Mookie got". It must take a lot of acting to pretend like you believe s*** like RBI's are an impactful way to judge value in your player. It would be even hard trying to argue your pitching client deserves a big raise because they had 16 "wins" last year. It's bizarre.

 

I also agree that the arbitration system is rather stupid.

 

But, the reason I generally don't have a problem with how players usually gets raises, is because of how little they earn when they're in their prime years doing a lot of heavy lifting for league minimum.

 

And those big overpaid contracts are usually only going to superstars now, largely thanks to analytics. FOs aren't breaking the bank for average players and the 2 WAR veterans are usually left with whatever they can get.

[G-Snarls]

Most depressing stat of the season?

 

2024 Blue Jays pitching staff have given up 191 home runs (vs Rockies second worst at 185)

 

The bullpen alone has given up 82 home runs. (vs Red Sox second most at 74)

[Omar]

Most depressing stat of the season?

 

2024 Blue Jays pitching staff have given up 191 home runs (vs Rockies second worst at 185)

 

The bullpen alone has given up 82 home runs. (vs Red Sox second most at 74)

 

Seems like 125 by Berrios alone:p

[G-Snarls]

Seems like 125 by Berrios alone:p

 

He's well on track for a career high, that's for sure

[Masterbather]

Most depressing stat of the season?

 

2024 Blue Jays pitching staff have given up 191 home runs (vs Rockies second worst at 185)

 

The bullpen alone has given up 82 home runs. (vs Red Sox second most at 74)

 

I don't know if it's the most depressing, I don't have the heart to go through all the stats, it's certainly a turd bag in the dumpster fire that is the 2024 season.

[Jimcanuck]

Most depressing stat of the season?

 

2024 Blue Jays pitching staff have given up 191 home runs (vs Rockies second worst at 185)

 

The bullpen alone has given up 82 home runs. (vs Red Sox second most at 74)

 

Jays fired the culprit responsible

[DigitalRock]

The Pen needs a total revamp this off season

[Terminator]

We picked up some late blooming minor leaguer from the Marlins today. Made Fangraphs Marlins Top 40 list this year. Emanuel Rodriguez or Gonzalez or something like that is his name.

[Laika]

We picked up some late blooming minor leaguer from the Marlins today. Made Fangraphs Marlins Top 40 list this year. Emanuel Rodriguez or Gonzalez or something like that is his name.

 

Wait he might be above replacement level!

 

good stuff+ on his fastball and splitter

 

It took over a decade for Ramirez to make it to the big leagues, with stops in the Padres’, Braves’, and Yankees’ systems before the Marlins inked him to a minor league deal coming off a strong 2023-24 LIDOM showing. Ramirez enjoyed a two-tick velo spike in 2023 and it gave his upshot heater enough oomph to play along with his diving splitter. Ramirez doesn’t have especially great command, but his fastball has enough ride to give him some margin for error in that regard. He should be a lower-leverage option in a rebuilding club’s bullpen during his prime.

[Spanky99]

The Pen needs a total revamp this off season

 

False, BP's are volatile, this past pen showed that. One solid reliever and run it back and fill it in.

[Masterbather]

False, BP's are volatile, this past pen showed that. One solid reliever and run it back and fill it in.

Yeah but who would you want to run it back with? I really don't care for most of the guys in our current bullpen. I'd like to see three or four new faces next year.

[Laika]

Romano did not have TJS so he could be 100% healthy in 2025

 

Projected ERAs:

Green: 3.98

Burr: 3.88

 

Green should be a fine secondary setup guy.

Burr might have good enough command of his solid breaking ball to be a good middle reliever.

 

 

From the kinds of guys they have been claiming recently, or promoting, I think they have their model right for the bullpen.

 

Easton Lucas - 124 stuff+ slider and sits 94.7, projected ERA of 4.18

Luis Frias - sits 96.3, projected ERA of 4.11, 112 overall stuff+

Brandon Eisert - 4.04 projected ERA, 114 stuff+ fastball from the left side

Emmanuel Ramirez - 4.16 projected ERA, 115 overall stuff+ with a 132 on his splitter...

Tommy Nance - 122 overall stuff+ (huge curveball grade...)

 

Some of those guys have a shot... maybe something like this would be enough:

 

Romano

FREE AGENT

Green

Burr

FREE AGENT

Little/Eisert

Nance/Ramirez/Lucas

[Terminator]

Cabrera and Swanson are contenders for the pen next year too. Not sure I'd tender them but it will be considered.

 

Cabrera's ERA and xERA are good, his FIP and xFIP suck. Swanson can't hit the broad side of a barn but was damn good prior.

[Terminator]

One of Yariel or Francis could be the long reliever if we sign a SP.

[Jimcanuck]

One of Yariel or Francis could be the long reliever if we sign a SP.

 

Can't see Francis in the bullpen as a long reliever, that would be a waste. He's either in the rotation or staying stretched out as SP depth in Buffalo.

[jaysblue]

Yeah I think the Jays need at least two FA arms for the pen. Remember they traded Yimi Garcia and will need to replace him with a similar type of experienced arm.

 

Would rather see Yariel used in the pen as a multiple inning reliever and keep Francis in the rotation as the No. 5 starter. Just my opinion.

[DigitalRock]

False, BP's are volatile, this past pen showed that. One solid reliever and run it back and fill it in.

 

Yeah they volatile, but I disagree..not many Arms that are here now currently I would keep imo. We need an injection of new Arms.

[Masterbather]

Yeah I think the Jays need at least two FA arms for the pen. Remember they traded Yimi Garcia and will need to replace him with a similar type of experienced arm.

 

Would rather see Yariel used in the pen as a multiple inning reliever and keep Francis in the rotation as the No. 5 starter. Just my opinion.

 

If Yariel could stick as a starter it would be valuable at least to start the season. I don't think we should invest more money in starting pitching until we know what we have next year.

[The_DH]

Not sure I'd agree, we could use the starters. Two Yariels would be fine, one as a long reliever. All of these 5 inning pitchers require long relief. And maybe two high leverage type relievers. That would do the pitching. Now just add a big bat for LF-DH

[G-Snarls]

If Yariel could stick as a starter it would be valuable at least to start the season. I don't think we should invest more money in starting pitching until we know what we have next year.

 

Gausman

Berrios

Bassitt

Francis

Y. Rodriguez

 

Looks OK on paper but the depth is gone with Rodriguez in the starting rotation and Tiedemann and Manoah MIA

 

I feel they're more likely to acquire SP depth than a 1-2 caliber starter although the latter would preferable of course. Can the front office really gamble in 2025 on getting 160-180 good innings from two unproven starters in Francis and Rodriguez? Their jobs are clearly on the line. Feels a little dangerous.

Edited September 6, 2024 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

The most impactful potential upgrades do feel like:

 

3B and/or DH

LF

Bullpen

[max silver]

Gausman

Berrios

Bassitt

Francis

Y. Rodriguez

 

Looks OK on paper but the depth is gone with Rodriguez in the starting rotation and Tiedemann and Manoah MIA

 

I feel they're more likely to acquire SP depth than a 1-2 caliber starter although the latter would preferable of course. Can the front office really gamble in 2025 on getting 160-180 good innings from two unproven starters in Francis and Rodriguez? Their jobs are clearly on the line. Feels a little dangerous.

 

Sign me up all day long for a Kikuchi reunion.

[jaysblue]

Gausman

Berrios

Bassitt

Francis

Y. Rodriguez

 

Looks OK on paper but the depth is gone with Rodriguez in the starting rotation and Tiedemann and Manoah MIA

 

I feel they're more likely to acquire SP depth than a 1-2 caliber starter although the latter would preferable of course. Can the front office really gamble in 2025 on getting 160-180 good innings from two unproven starters in Francis and Rodriguez? Their jobs are clearly on the line. Feels a little dangerous.

 

If Atkins/Shapiro are both still around, they're going to still contend in 2025. YRod and Francis have both impressed this season, but handing them both rotation jobs like you said definitely wipes out any depth this team had. I would leave one rotation spot open for competition. The Jays might need to call upon one of them during the season and would be better than scrambling to find someone to just give you innings.

 

Would also sign another arm to be a swingman if there is room on the roster and in the payroll, someone like a Jake Junis or a Nick Martinez if they come at reasonable prices. It doesn't hurt.

[jaysblue]

The most impactful potential upgrades do feel like:

 

3B and/or DH

LF

Bullpen

 

After seeing what Chapman got for an extension, I think Bregman at least gets $200M now over 7-8 years, which is quite pricey for an aging 3B and for someone who isn't as elite offensively as he once was.

 

Yoán Moncada could be a nice buy low option, but I think with Clement/Barger and the possibility of Vladdy playing some 3B next season, the Jays might be alright with their in-house options to save some FA cash, as long as they add big bats in left field and at DH.

 

Should be easy to sign one or two BP arms with high K rates. A lot are available.

[jaysblue]

Sign me up all day long for a Kikuchi reunion.

 

Yeah if the Jays can't bring in a Blake Snell, would rather bring back Kikuchi anyways, someone who the organization is familiar with and who likely won't cost as much in terms of AAV or years in comparison to Blake Snell.

 

If the Jays could target Jack Flaherty, I think he would be my No. 1 choice given his age and adjustments he has made. Kinda has a Kevin Gausman feel to me, where he can pitch like a No. 1/2 guy for a couple of years.

 

Flaherty

Gausman

Berrios

Bassitt

Francis/Y-Rod

 

Not bad. If the Jays really wanted to get creative, would also be sweet to sign Kikuchi if they could find someone to take on Bassitt's contract.

[Brownie19]

The most impactful potential upgrades do feel like:

 

3B and/or DH

LF

Bullpen

 

The FO has some options in which approach they take, but I think it's pretty obvious they don't have the money or the assets place to fill all the holes. This is likely going to lead to more frustration from Jays fans and this board.

 

Go with Approach #1 as you suggested above and the rotation may be too thin. If we do suffer some injuries, we could be in trouble. Declines from the big 3 guys may also leave us without the talent we need at the top of the rotation.

 

Go with Approach #2, which would be 1 big bat, 1 SPer and Bullpen and they run the risk of failing to address the lack of power and offense for a 3rd straight season. Relying on guys like Bo, Kirk, Springer - and some key Buffalo players to produce more offensively.

 

Each approach will come with it's own probability of failure. I suspect the FO will have their preferred approach, but will keep both open and have to do their best to read the market and take the approach that gives us the most bang for our buck.

Edited September 7, 2024 by Brownie19

[glory]

Gausman

Berrios

Bassitt

Francis

Y. Rodriguez

 

Looks OK on paper but the depth is gone with Rodriguez in the starting rotation and Tiedemann and Manoah MIA

 

I feel they're more likely to acquire SP depth than a 1-2 caliber starter although the latter would preferable of course. Can the front office really gamble in 2025 on getting 160-180 good innings from two unproven starters in Francis and Rodriguez? Their jobs are clearly on the line. Feels a little dangerous.

 

Depends on what the front office’s objective is. If their jobs are on the line and they want to contend then there’s no chance they enter 2025 with the same rotation. If their jobs are safe and they know they have to rebuild, but want to pretend to try in 2025 before an expected sell off mid season, then maybe they’d be fine with taking a chance on Francis/Yariel at 4/5 and just signing depth SPs like Stripling or something as a fall back. I can’t imagine Atkins’ job is safe with Shapiro entering next season as a lame duck, so I think they sign a SP. Even if it’s a Bassitt style short term deal for someone like Eovaldi, they need a front or mid rotation option in addition to what they already have.

[John_Havok]

If Atkins/Shapiro are both still around, they're going to still contend in 2025. YRod and Francis have both impressed this season, but handing them both rotation jobs like you said definitely wipes out any depth this team had. I would leave one rotation spot open for competition. The Jays might need to call upon one of them during the season and would be better than scrambling to find someone to just give you innings.

 

Would also sign another arm to be a swingman if there is room on the roster and in the payroll, someone like a Jake Junis or a Nick Martinez if they come at reasonable prices. It doesn't hurt.

 

I dont think its necessarily about handing them jobs, its just that neither of them have options next season. It sure seems like a waste of value to place either of them in the pen just for depth purposes when they're both clearly good enough for the rotation. If they find a pitcher to add above them, sure, I guess you could make that argument, but both would be on track for around 130 IP next season.

 

I guess as it stands now, Yariel would be the guy theyd move to the pen if they had to.