General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

Even Vladdy said during an interview yesterday that baseball is a business. His agent will advise him, his dad will advise him, you don't give discounts, you get paid as much as you can.

 

His team is really smart. Not sure how much of this was planned but it's working out great for them.

 

s*** talk the Yankees and talk for years about wanting an extension to stay in Toronto forever. This has endeared him to the fanbase who is now willing to completely overlook his down years.

 

Walk back the Yankee comment, double down on the extension and now he just so happens to be on one of the greatest heaters of his career. The fans are hellbent on resigning this guy now and he's putting up the numbers to justify a big extension. Good chance he gets it.

[RobinThicc]

A vlad extension will help bring Soto on board

[Terminator]

I would like to point out that both Tom Tango and I, two brilliant baseball minds, said to ignore all the pulled ball BS the board was buying into with regard to Vlad and that his xwOBA would normalize. Sure enough, that seems to be the case. Please clap.

 

So him sucking ass in 2023 is probably just bad luck as much as anything else. He underperformed his xwOBA by 38 points which helped crush his WAR. This year he started off similarly but it is finally starting to normalize, just like every other year in his career.

 

I only point this out because his 2023 season seems to be one of the biggest arguments that scares people away from not wanting to extend him. But in retrospect, that season just isn't as bad as it looks, him being fat and a liability on defense aside. It was just unlucky.

[Laika]

I would like to point out that both Tom Tango and I, two brilliant baseball minds, said to ignore all the pulled ball BS the board was buying into with regard to Vlad and that his xwOBA would normalize. Sure enough, that seems to be the case. Please clap.

 

So him sucking ass in 2023 is probably just bad luck as much as anything else. He underperformed his xwOBA by 38 points which helped crush his WAR. This year he started off similarly but it is finally starting to normalize, just like every other year in his career.

 

I only point this out because his 2023 season seems to be one of the biggest arguments that scares people away from not wanting to extend him. But in retrospect, that season just isn't as bad as it looks, him being fat and a liability on defense aside. It was just unlucky.

 

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[G-Snarls]

Is this the biggest decision in Blue Jays history?

 

It feels as big as Delgado and Halladay. But Halladay forced their hand.

[Jimcanuck]

Trade him for the right offer. This applies to any player.

[metafour]

I would like to point out that both Tom Tango and I, two brilliant baseball minds, said to ignore all the pulled ball BS the board was buying into with regard to Vlad and that his xwOBA would normalize. Sure enough, that seems to be the case. Please clap.

 

So him sucking ass in 2023 is probably just bad luck as much as anything else. He underperformed his xwOBA by 38 points which helped crush his WAR. This year he started off similarly but it is finally starting to normalize, just like every other year in his career.

 

I only point this out because his 2023 season seems to be one of the biggest arguments that scares people away from not wanting to extend him. But in retrospect, that season just isn't as bad as it looks, him being fat and a liability on defense aside. It was just unlucky.

 

You can pretty clearly see obvious differences in his plate discipline and batted ball metrics from 2024 to 2023, so it can't be all "luck". His 2021 metrics look very similar to 2024, so there appears to be a sweet-zone with him that produces the best results.

 

He is swinging less often this year (nearly a 3% drop in overall Swing% from PY) and is being more selective at what he swings at (Called strike % is up by 3.2% and his Z-Swing% is down by a whopping 5.4%). Subsequently his Hard hit% is up by a whopping 6.2%. His Barrel% is up by nearly 3%, and his average EV is up by 2.4%.

 

What this tells me is that he is reverting back to being a "smart hitter" and looking for "his pitch to hit", and subsequently crushing it. Post 2021 it seemed like he got high on his success and he started just swinging at whatever was in the zone (and then he would get in bad counts and start expanding outside the zone as well). Since he is so talented he was still making contact, but it wasn't good contact. His IFFB% was 11.7% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2022; it is at 5.6% this year and was 7.7% in 2021.

 

I think it really is as simple as it sounds: he is making better swing decisions and therefore making better, harder contact (versus swinging more often and making shittier contact, which is where he was trending in 2022 and 2023).

[Terminator]

You can pretty clearly see obvious differences in his plate discipline and batted ball metrics from 2024 to 2023, so it can't be all "luck". His 2021 metrics look very similar to 2024, so there appears to be a sweet-zone with him that produces the best results.

 

He is swinging less often this year (nearly a 3% drop in overall Swing% from PY) and is being more selective at what he swings at (Called strike % is up by 3.2% and his Z-Swing% is down by a whopping 5.4%). Subsequently his Hard hit% is up by a whopping 6.2%. His Barrel% is up by nearly 3%, and his average EV is up by 2.4%.

 

What this tells me is that he is reverting back to being a "smart hitter" and looking for "his pitch to hit", and subsequently crushing it. Post 2021 it seemed like he got high on his success and he started just swinging at whatever was in the zone (and then he would get in bad counts and start expanding outside the zone as well). Since he is so talented he was still making contact, but it wasn't good contact. His IFFB% was 11.7% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2022; it is at 5.6% this year and was 7.7% in 2021.

 

I think it really is as simple as it sounds: he is making better swing decisions and therefore making better, harder contact (versus swinging more often and making shittier contact, which is where he was trending in 2022 and 2023).

 

Oh I'm not saying his 2023 was as good as this year because it wasn't, he's trending to get 4.5 WAR this year. But 2023 also wasn't the 1 WAR disaster that it looked like.

 

fWAR is calculated using his wOBA which was .340 in 2023 and is pretty darn bad for a 1B. If they used his xwOBA of .378 instead, his WAR would have shot up dramatically. And the reason for the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is mostly due to luck. He wasn't really a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2023 is all I'm saying.

 

If he was a 3 WARish player last year, and he actually kind of was, it makes for a different conversation when discussing an extension for him.

[Laika]

nah he's just aiming his flyballs better now

[max silver]

Oh I'm not saying his 2023 was as good as this year because it wasn't, he's trending to get 4.5 WAR this year. But 2023 also wasn't the 1 WAR disaster that it looked like.

 

fWAR is calculated using his wOBA which was .340 in 2023 and is pretty darn bad for a 1B. If they used his xwOBA of .378 instead, his WAR would have shot up dramatically. And the reason for the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is mostly due to luck. He wasn't really a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2023 is all I'm saying.

 

If he was a 3 WARish player last year, and he actually kind of was, it makes for a different conversation when discussing an extension for him.

 

I don't think all of the underperformance compared to expected stats was purely luck. Vlad hit a lot of hit barreled balls to the deepest parts of the ballpark and subsequently these batted falls found their way into opposition gloves. On top of that he's barreling up more balls and finding the sweet spot more frequently.

[Terminator]

So basically:

 

1- He was only a 1 WAR player last year due to bad luck. He was more like a 3 WAR player with normal luck.

2- Throw out your notions of him being a perpetual underperformer of his xStats because he can't pull the ball in the air. It's only happened to him one season in his career and Tom Tango says to ignore it. This is hard to do because it's really ingrained groupthink on the board. But his xStats are the real deal.

 

So with 1 and 2 in mind, that should make an extension for Vlad more palatable to most people here. Definitely doesn't mean it's an open and shut case and there are plenty of arguments against it. But Vlad has been a better player than he gets credit for here.

[AMS528]

I don't think all of the underperformance compared to expected stats was purely luck. Vlad hit a lot of hit barreled balls to the deepest parts of the ballpark and subsequently these batted falls found their way into opposition gloves. On top of that he's barreling up more balls and finding the sweet spot more frequently.

 

I think I agree with Terminator here, his expected numbers are better this year because his contact is also better, but even with his changing batted ball profile year to year he hadn't had that kind of underperformance before.

 

If he ends this year well, then you can look at the last four years and say that last year was the outlier I think and at least a chunk of that was luck based.

[Terminator]

I don't think all of the underperformance compared to expected stats was purely luck. Vlad hit a lot of hit barreled balls to the deepest parts of the ballpark and subsequently these batted falls found their way into opposition gloves.

 

Tom Tango says to ignore this as it's mostly just noise. Vlad's career numbers line up with his xstats otherwise.

 

On top of that he's barreling up more balls and finding the sweet spot more frequently.

 

Yes, but that only explains why his 2024 is so much better than his 2023. And that's true. His xstats are better in 2024 and so are his real stats. It doesn't explain why his stats were so much worse than his xstats in 2023.

[Terminator]

I think I agree with Terminator here, his expected numbers are better this year because his contact is also better, but even with his changing batted ball profile year to year he hadn't had that kind of underperformance before.

 

If he ends this year well, then you can look at the last four years and say that last year was the outlier I think and at least a chunk of that was luck based.

 

Yes, exactly.

[saskjayfan]

Something like 8 years at $27M per year, including 2025.

 

He would be 33 in the final year of that. If he is still good, he would have a chance to tack on one more decent contract.

 

That's still an uncomfortable amount of money IMO. For a fat guy with no defensive value and a track record of obesity issues.

 

Lol...that's probably what Atkins is offering. That's never going to get it done.

[metafour]

Oh I'm not saying his 2023 was as good as this year because it wasn't, he's trending to get 4.5 WAR this year. But 2023 also wasn't the 1 WAR disaster that it looked like.

 

fWAR is calculated using his wOBA which was .340 in 2023 and is pretty darn bad for a 1B. If they used his xwOBA of .378 instead, his WAR would have shot up dramatically. And the reason for the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is mostly due to luck. He wasn't really a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2023 is all I'm saying.

 

If he was a 3 WARish player last year, and he actually kind of was, it makes for a different conversation when discussing an extension for him.

 

Sure, 2023 may in fact have been a 3 WARish season without "bad luck", but a ~3 WAR 1B still isn't worth whatever his asking price is, so it really doesn't change the narrative on whether we should extend him.

 

$300M+ requires him to hit with the current/2021 batted ball/plate discipline metrics. This is the big question mark. If he is going to sign his mega deal and revert back to making poor swing decisions (and thus revert back to ~3 WAR) then it will be a really really bad signing.

[John_Havok]

Sure, 2023 may in fact have been a 3 WARish season without "bad luck", but a ~3 WAR 1B still isn't worth whatever his asking price is, so it really doesn't change the narrative on whether we should extend him.

 

$300M+ requires him to hit with the current/2021 batted ball/plate discipline metrics. This is the big question mark. If he is going to sign his mega deal and revert back to making poor swing decisions (and thus revert back to ~3 WAR) then it will be a really really bad signing.

 

I think it's just something that has to be accepted that jo matter what extension he sighs for (if he's signed) it will be a "bad" extension from a purely on-field performance standpoint unless he's virtually MVP calibre or close to.

 

Vlads worth to the Jays off the field though is also something they just also have to consider. Vlad is worth more to the Jays than to any other team when it comes to the off-field stuff. It will factor in

[Omar]

[HomeRunHomer]

[Sorrow]

Post the stats

 

If you can wait until next week I can, pulling them up on my cellphone is not pleasant.

 

The general gist is he has a 100% success rate on balls hit within 0-4 feet of him while league average is 86.2%

 

On balls beyond 4 feet his success rate falls to 58% and league average is 67%

 

Using the data readily available with DRS and OAA he is at or near the bottom in basically all defensive categories outside of scoops.

[hanton]

If you can wait until next week I can, pulling them up on my cellphone is not pleasant.

 

The general gist is he has a 100% success rate on balls hit within 0-4 feet of him while league average is 86.2%

 

On balls beyond 4 feet his success rate falls to 58% and league average is 67%

 

Using the data readily available with DRS and OAA he is at or near the bottom in basically all defensive categories outside of scoops.

 

"If the ball isn’t within 3’ of him he is quite literally the worst defender at 1B in baseball"

 

Show the stats

[Jays24]

Overall I couldn't have wished for more trades than we made. Just the massive Bo/Vlad situations that need to get resolved ASAP. Letting them walk for nothing could be franchise crippling.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Per fangraphs:

 

Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll $235,404,984

[Rusty_Savage]

Overall I couldn't have wished for more trades than we made. Just the massive Bo/Vlad situations that need to get resolved ASAP. Letting them walk for nothing could be franchise crippling.

 

Thats a tad dramatic, it would suck but it wouldn't be franchise crippling

[Jays24]

Thats a tad dramatic, it would suck but it wouldn't be franchise crippling

 

Agreed lol

[Spanky99]

nah he's just aiming his flyballs better now

 

That interaction with the Cardinals forum still pulls at my heartstrings for hilarity, THE TRUE CARDINAL WAY!!!

[hanton]

Ross Atkins on BlueJays' sale: "I’m disappointed that we’re here and it’s unacceptable that we’re here and I’m sorry to our fans for that."

 

"unacceptable" pretty strong language from Atkins

[Spanky99]

Ross Atkins on BlueJays' sale: "I’m disappointed that we’re here and it’s unacceptable that we’re here and I’m sorry to our fans for that."

 

"unacceptable" pretty strong language from Atkins

 

Well, it isn't. He failed, it's 4th and 40, time to punt.

[Carlos Danger]

It feels as big as Delgado and Halladay. But Halladay forced their hand.

 

Actually, JPR was on the radio talking about the Halladay situation the other day. Ownership forced the FO’s hand . The FO went to Halladay and said we have to rebuild, that’s not what we promised. We will trade you to a contender, which teams are your preference.

[Sorrow]

"If the ball isn’t within 3’ of him he is quite literally the worst defender at 1B in baseball"

 

Show the stats

 

You can play with it through here to see it yourself. I'm going from 2021-2024 and only qualified 1B. I'll admit the 3' is a bit of an overstatement on my part. He's fine until he gets to about 6' and then he craters.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/statcast-infield-defense?type=Fielder&playerId=665489&startYear=2021&endYear=2024&result=&direction=&normalize=undefined&roles=&esrGT=0&esrLT=1&evGT=0&evLT=125&distGT=0&distLT=2&batside=&viz=intercept_fielder_starting_position_

 

Distance Travelled Attempts Outs (%) Estimated Outs (%) Outs Above Average

0-3ft 123 117 (95%) 104 (85%) +13

3-6ft 152 130 (86%) 129 (85%) +1

6-10ft 179 143 (80%) 144 (80%) -1

10ft-13ft 136 91 (67%) 95 (70%) -4

13ft-16ft 112 56 (50%) 66 (59%) -10

16ft-22ft 141 74 (53%) 82 (58%) -8

22ft-32ft 127 68 (54%) 73 (58% -5

32ft-51ft 104 76 (73%) 81 (78%) -5

51ft+ 149 125 (84%) 130 (87%) -5

 

I'm not sure how good that is going to look, I'm on my phone and I'm not going to spend more time trying to make the s*** line up.

 

Alonso IIRC is the 2nd worst defender by OAA in that time frame at -13 OAA.

 

From 6'-51'+ Alonso is at 67% success with -19 OAA. Guerrero is at 67% with -39 OAA. When we get into the more nitty gritty details to see where the difference in actual performance is Alonso is better defending straight up and close to the line and similar into the 2B hole but more importantly he has better range. He's worth 6 OAA at 3-6 feet compared to Guerrero's 1 and he gets to 90% of balls and from 6-10' he's worth +8 compared to Guerrero's -1 with an 86% success rate. Like Guerrero Alonso really drops off at the 10'+ range and in that same 10-13 foot he's actually worse than Guerrero but as a whole beyond that 3-6' range he out performs Guerrero.

 

Vladdy looking good on defence is due to the fact that we as fans aren't properly able to judge his range. Its very much like the outfield defence problem, Varsho can make this 70% catch (4.1s, 63ft travelled) look easy standing up and camping under it. While Tyler Freeman has to do an incredible dive to make this 85% catch (4.0s, 55ft travelled). Ask any fan and they will call Freeman's catch better even though the dive was only making up for a horrible jump and slow foot speed. As well Guerrero is far and away the best 1B in baseball at picks/scoops and it's not really close. I'm not going to say that Statcast is perfect but the eye test is even worse.

 

Varsho: https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/MzVCa1FfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlFoUlZnQlZVQVlBQ2xzRVV3QUFCUUlBQUFBRVVWRUFVQU1NQndNQUFnb0VDUUZX.mp4

 

Freeman:https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=76e627f2-21b9-49c5-847f-c78e4a67e5e0