General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Carlos Danger]

If Rogers keeps payroll around 225 mil then I think the Wild Card would be easy to make with that team + the trade deadline additions + the offseason additions.

 

This is the sad part though- The players shown take up about 160-165 mil. 170-175 with Romano and Pearson. You would need a big offseason of 50+ mil added in FA and trades to become Wild Card contenders. Yikes.

 

Easy?

 

Are you considering the advances of The Royals, Red Sox, Tigers, the pipeline Seattle has, Houston, Guardians Texas, Twins, and that one of the Yankees or Orioles will almost certainly take the 1st WC spot.

[BTS]

 

Passan is spot on here, as many of us have been saying. Unfortunately what he suggests is not happening with the ownership and front office in place. The fact that fans and media can see it but the Jays can’t is baffling.

 

Imagine being not even remotely interested in listening to offers on a 3 WAR 1B who is a year from seeking out a 200+M FA contract.

[John_Havok]

 

Passan is spot on here, as many of us have been saying. Unfortunately what he suggests is not happening with the ownership and front office in place. The fact that fans and media can see it but the Jays can’t is baffling.

 

it has nothing to do with the ownership "not being able to see it." they know exactly what they're doing. They will never intentionally put a s*** team on the field to rebuild that tells fans to just wait for 3 years when we're back on the upswing. They know they could trade everyone with a pulse and just be garbage for the next few seasons. They will not do it because it's worth way more money to them to be in the 80 wins + or - 5 range, rather than a 65-70 win team that nobody wants to pay to see in person and nobody wants to pay to watch via stream.

[glory]

it has nothing to do with the ownership "not being able to see it." they know exactly what they're doing. They will never intentionally put a s*** team on the field to rebuild that tells fans to just wait for 3 years when we're back on the upswing. They know they could trade everyone with a pulse and just be garbage for the next few seasons. They will not do it because it's worth way more money to them to be in the 80 wins + or - 5 range, rather than a 65-70 win team that nobody wants to pay to see in person and nobody wants to pay to watch via stream.

 

Couldn’t they trade Vlad, Bassitt, and others while reallocating the saved money this winter to try for 80 wins? They’d have money to spend plus prospects in that scenario. Rogers as you said probably just wants to stay reasonably competitive for tickets and don’t care about the actual baseball stuff but this is the 2nd time under Shapiro that the Jays will be operating like this. It’s not a good look for him at this point. Shows a lack of foresight and creativity.

[Terminator]

Easy?

 

Are you considering the advances of The Royals, Red Sox, Tigers, the pipeline Seattle has, Houston, Guardians Texas, Twins, and that one of the Yankees or Orioles will almost certainly take the 1st WC spot.

 

Sorry I meant "easy" in the board meme sense ("the playoffs will be easy to make") not literally. The point is that we'd be a 225 million dollar wild card contender and that's not ideal.

[John_Havok]

Couldn’t they trade Vlad, Bassitt, and others while reallocating the saved money this winter to try for 80 wins? They’d have money to spend plus prospects in that scenario. Rogers as you said probably just wants to stay reasonably competitive for tickets and don’t care about the actual baseball stuff but this is the 2nd time under Shapiro that the Jays will be operating like this. It’s not a good look for him at this point. Shows a lack of foresight and creativity.

 

Well, they could.... but what free agent is going to sign up for a team in 2025 that just traded virtually every talented player they had and just have nothing but maybes like Horwitz, Schneider, Clement, Varsho etc and a few prospects? That's like the opposite of what they should do. Tearing down and trying to get to 80 wins via FAs makes very little sense both on the field and on the bottom line.

[BigCecil]

Imagine being not even remotely interested in listening to offers on a 3 WAR 1B who is a year from seeking out a 200+M FA contract.

 

Very interesting conversation on all this with Passan on Blair and Barker today. Worth a listen. Makes a Jays fan want to jump off a bridge. Fair warning.

[Joltin Joe]

Maybe. He still had a few good years in him though

Calf injuries seem to recur a lot

[John_Havok]

Very interesting conversation on all this with Passan on Blair and Barker today. Worth a listen. Makes a Jays fan want to jump off a bridge. Fair warning.

 

heh, best things to drive attention.... unwavering optimism or pure doom and gloom. Doom and gloom usually works better

[BigCecil]

heh, best things to drive attention.... unwavering optimism or pure doom and gloom. Doom and gloom usually works better

 

Dismiss it if you will. Each to his own. But he did call the Jays as a non playoff team before the season began with a solid rationale.

[Jimcanuck]

A retool with the idea of putting bums in the seats isn't going to work. Jays just don't have the pieces. Take a loss for a year or two, bank on large profits that come from a young exciting team (that Shatkins failed to deliver).

[John_Havok]

Dismiss it if you will. Each to his own. But he did call the Jays as a non playoff team before the season began with a solid rationale.

 

True. I do dismiss most talking heads because their jobs are really no longer about having real conversations, but rather to be outlandish and attract attention.

[glory]

Well, they could.... but what free agent is going to sign up for a team in 2025 that just traded virtually every talented player they had and just have nothing but maybes like Horwitz, Schneider, Clement, Varsho etc and a few prospects? That's like the opposite of what they should do. Tearing down and trying to get to 80 wins via FAs makes very little sense both on the field and on the bottom line.

 

Sure, the most sensible direction would be to not care about wins in 2025 and retool for 2026-27. I'm just saying if Rogers is against that and just wants a path to get 2.5-3 million asses in the stadium, then figure out a logical way to balance putting the team in a better position long term with keeping your boss happy.

 

With that said, fans see through BS. The Jays drew 3.2 million fans in 2017, opted to go for it in 2018 despite common sense dictating otherwise, and then by the 2nd series of the season they averaged 17k in a 3 game set at home against the White Sox, after drawing only 29k on a Sunday against the Yankees. In other words, the fans saw right through it by the first week of that season. There's no guarantee that running it back again, except with Paul Goldschmidt at DH, or whatever other band aid fixes Shapiro has in mind, is going to do anything meaningful to attendance, especially now that the novelty of the stadium renovations may have worn out.

 

Also, even if the Jays by some chance actually make the playoffs in 2025, then what? More than half the roster is a FA in either 2025-26, and they only have one controllable young player who looks like he might be starting caliber in the bigs right now (and he's a 26 year old 1B playing 2B!). Maybe DS can be a good player, maybe Jimenez, but if you're running it back, then there's a good chance you'll have to retool/rebuild anyway the year after.

[John_Havok]

Sure, the most sensible direction would be to not care about wins in 2025 and retool for 2026-27. I'm just saying if Rogers is against that and just wants a path to get 2.5-3 million asses in the stadium, then figure out a logical way to balance putting the team in a better position long term with keeping your boss happy.

 

With that said, fans see through BS. The Jays drew 3.2 million fans in 2017, opted to go for it in 2018 despite common sense dictating otherwise, and then by the 2nd series of the season they averaged 17k in a 3 game set at home against the White Sox, after drawing only 29k on a Sunday against the Yankees. In other words, the fans saw right through it by the first week of that season. There's no guarantee that running it back again, except with Paul Goldschmidt at DH, or whatever other band aid fixes Shapiro has in mind, is going to do anything meaningful to attendance, especially now that the novelty of the stadium renovations may have worn out.

 

Also, even if the Jays by some chance actually make the playoffs in 2025, then what? More than half the roster is a FA in either 2025-26, and they only have one controllable young player who looks like he might be starting caliber in the bigs right now (and he's a 26 year old 1B playing 2B!). Maybe DS can be a good player, maybe Jimenez, but if you're running it back, then there's a good chance you'll have to retool/rebuild anyway the year after.

 

I don't necessarily agree that its a "dont care about wins in 2025" situation. The core of the team is all FAs like you said between next offseason and the one after with the exception of Berrios. So... there's really only 2 valid paths, if the goal is to try and win with the core they built (rightly or wrongly). That's to either go for it all-in in 2025 and 2026 and then deal with the garbage pile later... or slightly dial back in 2025 and 2026, try to hit with savvy additions and trades to fill the gaps, and maybe get a bigger-ish name FA for 2025 to make a headline and keep the optimism alive. I'd wager they're going with option 2. That option though can be accomplished a ton of ways.

 

I also think you overestimate the intelligence of the average Jays fan, who still worship at the altar of batting average and fielding percentage. Plus, attendance in the early part of the season always takes a dip after the first home series, especially if it's a weekday series against a "who cares" team.

[Omar]

Dismiss it if you will. Each to his own. But he did call the Jays as a non playoff team before the season began with a solid rationale.

 

Passan is always a great listen.

[Brownie19]

Yeah, L54 is right - this is basically what I've asked jaysblue to stop doing (which he's done).

 

seriously though - wouldn't this lineup get it done?

 

Springer - RF - 105 wRC+

Bo - SS - 120 wRC+

Vlad - 1st - 140 wRC+

Teo - LF - 130 wRC+

JDM - DH - 130 wRC+

Horwitz/Schneider - 2nd - 115 wRC+

Varsho - CF - 95 wRC+

IKF - 3rd - 95 wRC+

Kirk - C - 90 wRC+

 

Bench - Clement, Horwitz/Schneider, Barger (or Leo) & FA Catcher

 

With a little luck (maybe Springer's figured something out, maybe Kirk returns to a 115 wRC+ hitter, maybe someone breaks out), that's a really good offense that didn't sacrifice "that" much defense.

 

My apologies for adding the dig in.

[Stangstag]

Couldn’t they trade Vlad, Bassitt, and others while reallocating the saved money this winter to try for 80 wins? They’d have money to spend plus prospects in that scenario. Rogers as you said probably just wants to stay reasonably competitive for tickets and don’t care about the actual baseball stuff but this is the 2nd time under Shapiro that the Jays will be operating like this. It’s not a good look for him at this point. Shows a lack of foresight and creativity.

 

You trade Vlad you immediately lose the interest of 5 million casual fans

[BTS]

You trade Vlad you immediately lose the interest of 5 million casual fans

 

I don't think this fanbase is dumb enough that trading a 26-year old Christian Walker without the defense instead of paying him 200M+ would be so catastrophic to the bottom line that it isn't feasible to do.

[WryNGinger]

It would be interesting to see the profit/attendance numbers for a 2025 season that has 5,000 less fans per game at regular season prices vs 2+ playoff games in 2026 at post-season prices. The 2026 playoffs are no guarantee obviously but it makes me wonder how far into that type of prognosis they get. Love to be a fly on the wall for those meetings.

[Stangstag]

I don't think this fanbase is dumb enough that trading a 26-year old Christian Walker without the defense instead of paying him 200M+ would be so catastrophic to the bottom line that it isn't feasible to do.

 

I do

[BTS]

I do

 

Has there ever been a situation before where a team couldn't move on from a 3-win player for fear of massive backlash from the fanbase? Maybe like late-career Derek Jeter after he won like 8 rings or whatever? Winning drives fan interest, and extending a mediocre 1B at enormous money based on reputation is bad for the team's odds of winning in the future. Keeping Vlad out of fear of fan backlash is how the team gets saddled with a Chris Davis/Ryan Howard contract - a deal that seems necessary at the time, but ends up as a massive sunk cost.

[L54]

I don't necessarily agree that its a "dont care about wins in 2025" situation. The core of the team is all FAs like you said between next offseason and the one after with the exception of Berrios. So... there's really only 2 valid paths, if the goal is to try and win with the core they built (rightly or wrongly). That's to either go for it all-in in 2025 and 2026 and then deal with the garbage pile later... or slightly dial back in 2025 and 2026, try to hit with savvy additions and trades to fill the gaps, and maybe get a bigger-ish name FA for 2025 to make a headline and keep the optimism alive. I'd wager they're going with option 2. That option though can be accomplished a ton of ways.

 

I also think you overestimate the intelligence of the average Jays fan, who still worship at the altar of batting average and fielding percentage. Plus, attendance in the early part of the season always takes a dip after the first home series, especially if it's a weekday series against a "who cares" team.

 

You asked what free agent is going to sign in Toronto if you trade everybody?

 

Well, what free agent is going to sign in Toronto knowing the entire team is gone after 2025 with a limp dick’s chance of making the WC3?

[Stangstag]

Has there ever been a situation before where a team couldn't move on from a 3-win player for fear of massive backlash from the fanbase? Maybe like late-career Derek Jeter after he won like 8 rings or whatever? Winning drives fan interest, and extending a mediocre 1B at enormous money based on reputation is bad for the team's odds of winning in the future. Keeping Vlad out of fear of fan backlash is how the team gets saddled with a Chris Davis/Ryan Howard contract - a deal that seems necessary at the time, but ends up as a massive sunk cost.

 

You think the average fan even knows what WAR is? Or knows how much WAR Vlad has? Or understands what the stat actually means?

 

I’ve been saying for a while we should move on from Vlad but I don’t think the front office wants to. Or if they even have a choice in the matter. The team needs a face, and if Rogers wants that to be Vlad then he stays.

[BTS]

You think the average fan even knows what WAR is? Or knows how much WAR Vlad has? Or understands what the stat actually means?

 

I’ve been saying for a while we should move on from Vlad but I don’t think the front office wants to. Or if they even have a choice in the matter. The team needs a face, and if Rogers wants that to be Vlad then he stays.

 

It's not so much that the fans will understand that he's only worth 3 WAR. It's that letting a 3 WAR player (now - who knows what he'll with another few years of physical decline) go instead of giving him a massive contract should result in more wins down the road, which is really all that matters when it comes to driving fan interest. This isn't a Mookie Betts situation where losing him hurts the team meaningfully on the field going forward.

 

It's Mark Shapiro's job to convince ownership not to let a fear of 1-2 years of fan backlash lead to a 12-year mistake. Hopefully he's up to it. I do agree with you that he won't be traded now, or this offseason. I think they'll ultimately avoid the massive extension. But I also think they'll pay a significant opportunity cost by not moving him now, either getting very little next year at the deadline or walking him to free agency and getting nothing.

[max silver]

It's not so much that the fans will understand that he's only worth 3 WAR. It's that letting a 3 WAR player (now - who knows what he'll with another few years of physical decline) go instead of giving him a massive contract should result in more wins down the road, which is really all that matters when it comes to driving fan interest. This isn't a Mookie Betts situation where losing him hurts the team meaningfully on the field going forward.

 

It's Mark Shapiro's job to convince ownership not to let a fear of 1-2 years of fan backlash lead to a 12-year mistake. Hopefully he's up to it. I do agree with you that he won't be traded now, or this offseason. I think they'll ultimately avoid the massive extension. But I also think they'll pay a significant opportunity cost by not moving him now, either getting very little next year at the deadline or walking him to free agency and getting nothing.

 

I have a feeling Vlad may be legitimately fixed at the plate. He's into a nearly 3 month stretch of 160'ish wRC+ production. That's exactly the type of bat you want to build around. It's a shame he's becoming borderline unplayable in the field though as the defense hasn't improved despite the obvious improvements to his physical fitness. I have no idea what kind of extension offer would actually entice Vlad to sign though. He will always have the bad body concerns hanging over him, and 1B/DH types aren't getting the massive long term deals in this day and age either.

Edited July 24, 2024 by max silver

[AMS528]

Vlad just bleeds so much value elsewhere because of his lack of range. His base running seems to have the opposite problem of last year. He never advances and that's hurting him there.

 

His bat has genuinely been back for months. He's hit a ton of home runs now since his slow power start.

[BTS]

I have a feeling Vlad may be legitimately fixed at the plate. He's into a nearly 4 month stretch of 160'ish wRC+ production. That's exactly the type of bat you want to build around. It's a shame he's becoming borderline unplayable in the field though as the defense hasn't improved despite the obvious improvements to his physical fitness. I have no idea what kind of extension offer would actually entice Vlad to sign though. He will always have the bad body concerns hanging over him, and 1B/DH types aren't getting the massive long term deals in this day and age either.

 

If he’s a 160 wRC+ bat going forward that’s a special hitter and someone you want to lock up. The problem is that his career average, 2024 season, and projections are all in the 140 range. He’s a good, useful player at that level, but not irreplaceable. I’d give him Matt Olson or Freddie Freeman money - paying him like he’s a 3-win player or so with a bit of upside to beat that. Everything I’ve heard seems to indicate that he’s looking for something like twice that though. That has disaster written all over it.

[connorp]

Has there ever been a situation before where a team couldn't move on from a 3-win player for fear of massive backlash from the fanbase? Maybe like late-career Derek Jeter after he won like 8 rings or whatever? Winning drives fan interest, and extending a mediocre 1B at enormous money based on reputation is bad for the team's odds of winning in the future. Keeping Vlad out of fear of fan backlash is how the team gets saddled with a Chris Davis/Ryan Howard contract - a deal that seems necessary at the time, but ends up as a massive sunk cost.

 

Nats moved on from Bryce Harper, who was a 3+ win player the prior 3 years before FA. Philly gave him 13/330. Philly is very glad they did, I’m sure. The Nats have since become one of the saddest franchise is baseball. Topping out at 71 wins over the last 5 years. Averaging 60 wins or something

 

The Bluejays were super smart and traded for Dalton Varsho and signed IKF and got 3+ WAR production with glove first…those sky foxes…. But, they still suck and are looking to unload half their team, maybe

[Delgalladay]

Nats moved on from Bryce Harper, who was a 3+ win player the prior 3 years before FA. Philly gave him 13/330. Philly is very glad they did, I’m sure. The Nats have since become one of the saddest franchise is baseball. Topping out at 71 wins over the last 5 years. Averaging 60 wins or something

 

The Bluejays were super smart and traded for Dalton Varsho and signed IKF and got 3+ WAR production with glove first…those sky foxes…. But, they still suck and are looking to unload half their team, maybe

 

Didn’t the Nats win the World Series the first year after Harper left? I think Soto refusing to sign with them along with all the other players they lost had more impact than losing Harper.

[Laika]

Nats moved on from Bryce Harper, who was a 3+ win player the prior 3 years before FA. Philly gave him 13/330. Philly is very glad they did, I’m sure. The Nats have since become one of the saddest franchise is baseball. Topping out at 71 wins over the last 5 years. Averaging 60 wins or something

 

The Bluejays were super smart and traded for Dalton Varsho and signed IKF and got 3+ WAR production with glove first…those sky foxes…. But, they still suck and are looking to unload half their team, maybe

 

Yeah but Bryce went:

 

9.3, 2.0, 4.1, 3.2, at ages 22-25

 

 

Vlad will have gone:

 

6.3, 3.3, 1.3, 3.4, at ages 22-25 (guessing on 2024 final)

 

18.6 vs. 14.3

 

Higher highs and lower lowers. Harper way more general athleticism.

 

 

But you do have a point. It's not all about WAR. You have to assign value to certain elite characteristics even if how those have shown up in the on-field production historically has been sporadic. Vlad is similar to Harper in a lot of ways that very few other baseball players would be... just fundamental stuff like natural physical talent, ability to hammer the ball, etc.

 

I would not give Vlad 10/300 of course but there is probably a 10 year deal in the 200s that I would do.

 

 

A lot of people point to the Matt Olson contract (8 yr, $168M) as the most that Vlad should get because it's the highest recent precedent for a star 1B under 30. But how are they an actual comp? Olson is a skills-maximizer who used to struggle with a 25% to 30% K rate. He was not a star until he turned 27, and then he figured out how to put it all together and string together some 5 WAR seasons. But now look at him at 30.... 92 wRC+, .220/.300/.389 and the power isn't there. Back to the worst version of Oakland Matt Olson.

 

Would Vlad ever turn into a complete pumpkin like that? Actually kind of hard to imagine. Yes he could groundball his way to a bunch of middling seasons like 2023 and that would suck.